George Soros speaks

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5989163.ece

Whiplash Month

March will go down as the best month for the indexes since 2002 but that could not save us from a terrible quarter for the markets. This quarter ending marks the sixth straight quarter of losses for investors in the stock markets and the upcoming months might prove to be much of the same. I read an article today about the upcoming crisis socially due to rising umemployment, crisis we have not seen in this country for decades.
Europe is going through a very difficult time and I see it happening there very soon as the Europeans are not as naive as us here, sorry if that offend anyone but it is the truth. The realization here is that we have sit on our butts too long as the politicians give us crap and we suffer in the end. Imagine President Obama told GM CEO to step down but he still gets $20 million, really is this right? Do I get 100k if I leave my job for not performing? really why do the authorities that be stop this and we the taxpayers pay for this over and over. I mean we are nothing in the grand scheme of things but pawns for votes, that's why people who are ignorant who like to talk about they are right wing, left, wing , liberal , conversative, I say you are PAWNS on the table. The king, queen, knight and rook cares rats ass about you, that's the truth. They dont care and if you tell me more than that PROVE it to me!
Anyways I told myself no rants this year because I will get hate mail and I don't have time for that crap.
April 2 is very important, that's the date for the mark to market decision, it is playing out tricky for me to give some plays as I hoped that the market would ramp up into the decision for us to get a decent short. Right now I am thinking we will see 750 area soon. The bull struggled today to stay about 800 after they had a good chance to and that makes we think we are going to correct the upward move here. Watch the banks to sell of here in the first two weeks as they are overbought.

Keep it small and light here folks we will soon get the lights outs of our eyes and get some excellent quick plays.


MARKETJEDI

Home Prices no end in decline

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A widely watched index shows American home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in January.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 19 percent from January 2008. It was the largest decline since the index started in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.4 percent, also a new record.

All 20 cities in the report showed monthly and annual price declines.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted 29 percent from their peak in summer 2006, while the 10-city index has fallen 30 percent. Prices are at levels not seen since late 2003.

Phoenix Arozina

Home prices down 48% from their peak. WOW is all I can say. I mean really why would I still own a home there it makes no sense just walk away. You bought a home for 300k and now it is worth $160 but your mortgage is 240k, why still pay it! makes no sense. Some of these places prices will never reach those peak prices without a drastic decline in the value of the US dollar and massive inflation.

Hmmm the stories never end

Server Issues

A number of brokers early are sending out connectivity problems to the exchanges this morning. Make sure if you trading or logging on you check. Remember rumor of big virus suppose to hit tonight April 1st

Last day in March

Even with a positive March the market could not shake the depth of the bear market marking the first time since the 1930 the market have has six straight quarters of negative gains. April I hope is not as choppy as March but from what I am seeing here we 'SHOULD' get a bit of upside here. This morning we are gapping up and hopefully we fill the gap before moving higher. Why am I positive on he day? Well friday and yesterday we basically gapped down and failed to fill the gap, so I am just betting on a relief of some of this selling. I could be wrong but we will see soon enough.
Look for 800 and ultimately 805/806 to be strong resistance this morning/ today and a move above 808 which was previous support would put the bulls in good standing for the start of April.
I do think on the next decline we go below 750 area possibly to 732 but we will see when we are closer to that set up.

MARKETJEDI

Watch the tape

Tomorrow is the last day of the month but I must caution those who want to short this so quickly. The first 3 days of April are usually positive and I would not be surprise to see us gap down and then turn around tomorrow. The market is in NO MAN'S LAND still and that's why I am not going to make any big bets till this consolidation tips its hand.
A little patience will help here. Don't worry the market will tip its hand very very soon as earnings is in two weeks.
On a side note this week is the decision on mark to market accounting and I am of the view the financials if they get a bump after the decision they will sell off HARD.
Also George Soros, noted today that the upcoming G-20 meeting is the single most important event for the world markets. He proclaimed that if the G-20 leaders are not all on the same board we will end the crisis in depression mode. I hope for all our sakes they will act for the benefit of the world and not their countries self interest.



MARKETJEDI

Thought

I think we will have upside or chop around till about June, July.

Banks

Well friday's news of JP Morgan pessimistic outlook for the next quarter seem to have just set in today. As noted last week we were flying on windows dressing phenomenon and today was testament to that as most managers would have to already bought stocks to show it on their books tomorrow, the last day of the month.
March was been a stressful month indeed and I am telling you this April into May should be very much the same. I hear alot of people coming out and saying because we had two down days the rally is over and we going to new lows but I am thinking new lows wont happen on the push down and it is a mere correction of the upward move we had in the past three weeks. Now am I mr. bull now, NO, but nothing goes in a straight like and I believe that this bear market should last till mid 2011 so we have alot of time to correct higher and then make new lows.
Anyone check out GS today. Man that sucker died like some bad news was around but nope it just shows you any stock that can retrace that amount after being up so much was not a investment but merely a trading stock. I hope some are learning what I am trying to bring forth here and not get caught up with the Jim Cramer of the world who is always on the wrong side of the market. Last week he was calling for the moon now we are down 400 points, man that's some record. I am down on one trade and I get emails asking me about it :) Life is so funny.
This is a race but not a sprint, it should be a marathon. Slow and steady and remember you not always going to be correct on your trades but the marathon method is more winners than losers and you will be ok at the end of the race.


Good Trading


MARKETJEDI-

P.S. I think commercial real estate is going to be in the dump for a long time. I thing that one is just beginning to roll over.

ERROR

Folks just noticed the AZO play which as noted was a straight short for me but said could try the puts. The puts listed on the open plays is the wrong ticker. Ticker should be AZO PI. Sorry about that, what was listed was the call.

I guess we all make mistakes.


MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL UPDATE SKF 1/2 lot

Out SKF 1/2 lot from last week +$11

Monday

Market might start off on early weakness on the GM news of possible bankruptcy and news from the Banks that things might not be turning around as fast as everyone things. Folks I dont think we crash and burn here no way, the bulls will defend their stand so dont get caught off guard here. It would be very bullish is we open lower here and the bull can take it positive.


Good trading

Bulls in control here

Bulls are in control here as we close out the month of March. Remember my thesis of the continues uptrend is that of window dressing but with earning starting the week after it will be interested to see where we are by the end of April.
The fact that the market has been up 11 of the last 15 sessions despite some intense overbought conditions indicates to me that the powerful intermediate-term bullish signals likely are STILL pre-dominant, which if accurate means that weakness will be muted until the intermediate-term technicals run their course on the upside.

Near-term, as long as the S&P does not trade below critical support at 795-788, the bulls remain in control. Traders may also want to watch the 803.50 level, which is the dominant March up-trendline. The longer the S&P 500 futures remain above that trendline Sunday night into early Monday, the more likely the correction will run its course ahead of another thrust late Monday into Tuesday am, which projects next to 835-845. I have an initial upside target of 852 and full resistance at 874.

Have a great weekend

Excellent video on Geithner Plan

Sentiment

Sentiment the last two weeks has been cautiously optimistic. The massive dive of stocks and high level of shorts have led to a nice move upside. I have to be honest I thought we would get heavy resistance at 7400-7500 on the DOW but we surpassed that level (Maybe 8400 is possible). My main reason why this happened was the constant interference in the market by the administration, these two week have been historic in my book and believe me I am drained from being sick and trying to figure out why we move so parabolic to the upside.
Well I hope April sets up nicely as I am looking at some charts and I think we will have more clarity in a few weeks. The wave count traders have been wrong on the count but that doesn't mean they are wrong just wrong about the levels, much like I was.
The last few months have been easy to trade but then comes period like this where is is complete chop and no technicals works because it is mainly just shorts covering.
But fear not this time will pass in my opinion within three weeks, especially when we get the news on mark to market and the President decides to start off the tv and stop messing with the market psyche.
We will rock this year

SKF

Long 1/2 share today @91. Will add lower if I need to.

SKF

Buying 1/2 SKF in the morning as a position trade.



currently @ $90.36. looking for $85-90 fill

This is what I am looking at

DOW 8000

They will surely push us over 800 here I am thinking 8400 is an area you want to definitely start scaling in to short. I surely will ! That area would correspond to that 855-875 area which is a sweet spot. We will see soon enough, right now windows dressing is calling all the shots

Action today

I have a feeling the big money is just buying futures and keeping them for higher prices. The necessary internal are just not making me believe it is funds putting money to work. From my experience they will continue to push up the futures till the suck in some funds guys who might just start to think wow this is really a new upside market. When we wee this they the smart money will start dumping and shorting.
Again it is just chop fest in here and I hope we get these market to market etc out soon to continue the regular type of trading, geez I just can't wait to get relief out of this chop.

CHOP CHOP CHOP-

Roubini on the Banks

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a “bear-market rally” and U.S. Treasury yields will “remain relatively low” as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners LLC’s Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work. Investors are “way too optimistic” about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said.

Stress Tests

The S&P 500 surged 7.1 percent on March 23 after Geithner unveiled a plan to finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, using $75 billion to $100 billion of the Treasury’s remaining bank-rescue funds. The government is conducting stress tests of banks to determine how much more capital each will need.

Roubini, who predicts loan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion, said the stress tests will reveal that some banks need to be taken over and have their good and bad assets separated before being sold to the private sector. He didn’t name which companies he thought would need to be rescued.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June advanced 1.2 percent to 818 as of 8:30 a.m. in New York.

Critics of Geithner’s plan including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University, say the government should take over banks loaded with devalued assets, remove their top management, and dispose of the toxic securities. Sweden adopted the temporary nationalization approach in the 1990s.

‘Deflationary Forces’

“Some banks are going to have to be nationalized,” said Roubini. “It’s going to be bumpy ahead of us.”
Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week called for new powers to take over and wind down failing financial companies. They said the U.S. also needs stronger regulation to constrain the risks taken by firms that could endanger the financial system.

With “deflationary forces” lingering for as long as three years, Roubini said U.S. government bond yields will remain low and American house prices will fall as much as 20 percent in the next 18 months. While the dollar will initially benefit as investors seek a safe haven in the U.S., the currency will ultimately drop as the nation’s trade deficit shrinks, he said.

Roubini dismissed China’s call for the creation of a new international reserve currency as a “pie in the sky idea” that’s unlikely to gain traction any time soon.

Mobius, Biggs

China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan this week urged the International Monetary Fund to expand the use of so- called Special Drawing Rights and move toward a “super- sovereign reserve currency.”

Geithner sent the dollar tumbling yesterday by saying he would consider China’s idea, only to drive it back up by affirming that the greenback should remain the world’s reserve currency.

“This was a political call and in a nut shell - it ain’t going to happen any time soon,” Roubini said.

Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California- based Templeton, said March 23 the next “bull-market” rally has begun. Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley who now runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners, predicted the same day the S&P 500 may jump between 30 percent and 50 percent.

The benchmark index for U.S. equities has surged 11 percent in March, poised for its biggest monthly gain since 1991. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities in 23 developing nations is headed for the steepest monthly advance on record after rising 20 percent in March.

Next few months

Next few months if we are in this magic chop fest wave could prove very difficult to trade. As I said this is the most zig zag wave in the elliott wave theory and therefore only the best traders will get it spot on. It will past though and the next wave should be a easy wave down for the bears. The question we should try and answer here is where and when this wave will end!
I think the first stop on the upside is 875 and from there we might run to the 1045 level but I am not making a call on than now, extremely difficult to tell. Lets play it close and look out day to day as it is almost impossible to make trend calls with this administration out on the tv everyday with some other plan to move the market.

Some timing stuff

I think we could see a little top tomorrow. Why ? on my daily charts it is signaling a peak today or tomorrow as I would be lightening up on any long I have if I did. Dangerous to say go short but we should get a pullback based on the daily charts

Levels to Watch

S&P 808 and 801 are important levels to watch. My gut felling tells me we want 780 area on the S&P and today's 792 might have been that test but who knows.
Watch that 801 level again. if tomorrow we test it and dont hold we will see some weakness belows today lows.
Watch for resistance at the 825 level again if we go up initially tomorrow.

Interesting action

These last three weeks in the market has been very difficult to analyze. Often when you see movement like this it usually means we are in a consolidation cycle or wave and we are merely pushing and pulling between the bulls and the bears. Today action is a perfect example why you have to stay out of the market till we break out of this consolidation. We gave back 300 points on the DOW and then rallied 100+points to end the day positive. Now if you weren't a market watcher you might be like oh the DOW was +89 today but it was one wild ride.
I think we will be in this torture till earnings seasons next month and also till we get the news out about the mark to market and whatever other kind of manipulation they want to put on the market. The problem is near term folks will side step the problems underlining the markets and think these actions will help and send us higher but in the longer term is will just be disasterous because the market MUST be allowed to correct itself without intervention, all they are basically doing is delaying the inevitable and for most of us get killed once again
There is a good shot from the charts I am looking at we are close to a intermediate top here but the problem is that we have windows dressing and most manager will try to fudge their books as usual because March was an up month. What happens in April will all be earnings related, I hope the big guns of GE, Microsoft, Google, Apple and the Banks report good news are we could fall hard. My best guess is we will push up into earnings and half way through we start selling off. Right here is NO MAN'S LAND and it must be respected there is nothing we can do till the market really tips it hands. Play light as it is total chop fest out there.


MARKETJEDI

Market selling off

Just if no one realizes the market is selling off on news that the US latest issuance of Bonds were poorly received.
This is very very bad news for the administration who is trying to raise funds to implement stimulus packages. This will put a shot in the US dollar and as I have been saying this is one of the reasons why the US dollar weakness is the main thing to fear in the future.

Chop Chop and Chop

Not much to talk about here folks but dont expect us to move down into the end of month, Why? because we will have one of the first upside window dressing in months. The fact that the financials and other beaten down sectors have performed well many fund managers will want to end them to their books to look like they are smart.
Also I think wave theorist are wrong on the current wave count in the market. Most are thinking we crash and go to new lows here BUT I dont think so. I really think we chop around or grind higher till we get news on the market to market decision, then their will be the top of this run up.
Right now folks is a time just to kick back and watch, yesterday was testament to this, there will be tons of opportunities soon but right now we are in chopfest mode.



MARKETJEDI

Beginning of the end of the US Dollar

China calls for new reserve currency

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Published: March 23 2009 12:16 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:06

China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.

In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies”.

Upside

I got an email asking about how far I think we can go to the upside. Well I did some projections over the weekend on based on some waves I was counting especially with respect to that 804/805 area. Since we broke it to the upside and filled the gap in that 820 area I am looking at a possible resistance up at the 940 area and possibly the ultimate push as most of you who have been reading the blog my projection of 1045( wrote about that number many times in Nov, Dec 2008).
It is very hard to trade a day where we gap up and never look back but whether it was the Geithner news or just a natural bounce in a oversold climate, one thing is sure we dont go up or down in a straight line and I expect up to back and fill in the mid 700 area of the S&P. As long as we hold that 745 area the bulls will be ok and the upside.
The 900 level on the S&P might come in very fast and that's my only fear as we might do all the gains in a short period of time that we have nothing left to do but dive.

We will see soon enough. Remember we should start the day up tomorrow but be mindful of the turn around tuesday phemomenon.


MARKETJEDI

$10 Trillion

WOW we are sinking into an abyss but what the heck the down is up almost 500 point. Amazing how stupid people are. The news today is not good on the banks, the are just pushing the paper around it is still there!!!! It is doing nothing positive and how will pay in the end the tax payers, just amazing

Gone 805

We blew pass 805 and went straight to the gap fill 820. AMAZING

Telling you this, the last week has just been one for the record book!!

DXD

I am buying 1/2 lot here $64.00.

Folks it is rough market out there dont follow these trades if you are not experienced!!!

805 Line in the Sand

805 is the number to look for before the close. A break of it higher could mean we get bullish shorter term and put the bear in hiding. On the other side if we challenge it and dont hold it might be seen as failure. Tie will tell.

Rocking Away higher-

As I said in the market thought - The bulls must recapture 800 before tuesday seem like that's what they want to do. My next projection upward believe it or not is 820.

GS

Short here @$103, for what it is worth

Monday

Well futures are up on Geithner plan but this is just pumping up a dead horse. If we do sell off most of this gap up we will definitely be setting up bearish as I dont believe there is anything left in the tank for the administration or FED to use. This week should be very interesting as we 'SHOULD' reverse last week uptrend but anything is possible as we are in a new related market.
Watch that 767 level early on and see how we react if we dip to that level.
I am feeling very sick and woke up with a fever again!!!


MARKETJEDI

Market Thoughts- BIG PICTURE

First of all how about that SKF play again, up 30% in two days, we have the ticket on that one and we continue to rack up on it as a retirement account play.
Tonight I would like to talk about last week and stress that we are in a very crucial time for the future of this economy especially to lead on a global basis. The regular person has no idea what is going on but I will try to explain as simple as I can what is happening behind the scenes.
Firstly, last week decision by the FED was spun by the media as some miraculous move as we should now have lower rates on mortgages, car notes etc, I am here to tell you what they did was a desperation move as things aren't getting better but worse in the credit market. The purchasing of mortgages and car notes by the FED proves that the credit markets haven't improved much since the $700 Billion bill was approved. The FED action was the last resort to defend our debt without the Chinese, Germans and Japanese losing ultimate faith in it as a long term investment. Last week the Chinese finance minister said what I have feared for the last two years, that they will slow the purchasing of Treasury notes as they think the US deficit will unravel the economics of the strong dollar asset. This is MAJOR bad as the US is only operating on borrowed funds from the Chinese, Germans and Japanese, without them purchasing our treasury notes we will be unable to run the government, YES folks the power of our economic future is not in Washington as most might believe but it is in our debt holders mainly foreign countries. They call the shots here and this is going to play havoc on the global political landscape very very soon.
The FED had no option last week to do anything to interest rate because rates are virtually ZERO, so this move was its only option. Now I am a strong believer in letting the system work out its kinks but politicians seem to think they should have some say in economics when they shouldn't. The FED action is going to cause massive inflation and the collapse of the US dollar, if you dont believe look what happened after the announcement last week, gold turned around $70 higher, oil went up $5, silver rose and bonds rallied over $5 in 10 minutes, something I have NEVER seen in all my years trading. This is just the first sign of coming inflation and why the market if it rallies means nothing because the declining value of the dollar make investments here less attractive than foreign investments. The only saving grace now is that the whole world is slowing down but as I said before, the countries that have little or no debt will come out of this slowdown as the new economic powers of the next global economic boom cycle.
I have no idea what will happen here intermediate term but long term we are functioning on borrowed time. This is why we have to set our investments on the declining dollar (so invest in commodities that are dollar based), metals and the shorting of the treasuries notes which right now is developing into a bigger bubble than the housing market was.

This week is do or die time for both bulls and bears. The bulls must reclaim the 801 area early (before tuesday) or defend a decline around the 733-739 area. This area must hold or we will more than likely test the March lows in a rush BUT I will be a buyer yes a BUYER if this scenario presents itself. My bias here is to the short side as I believe we ran too hard too fast and must relieve some of this overbought pressure.
Lets take it slow and see which way the market tips its hands but anyway it does it should provide ample opportunities to profit from.

Trade call here- SHORT GS-

Hope I feel much better this week, my sinuses are just a living hell. Have a great week


MARKETJEDI

Trade Call Update:Long SKF

Out here 1/2 lot + 25%

Not bad for 2 days.

Rocking

Option Expiration- today

Remember today is expiration day and I rarely trade due to my terrible record on options expiration days because of the manipulation. I will be around and if I see anything interesting I will update.
Have a great day

Extensive writing

I will be constructing an extensive analysis of the market and the FED decision and how it will affect us in the short, medium and long term. It will be posted before sunday night. I have been battling terrible sinuses this season as usual so I am not 100%

For now yesterday was comparable to only 9-11 in my opinion. One crazy market we are dealing with right here and I think it will get even crazier. I expect us to make new lows and new higher this year, trust me you have not seen anything YET.


How you like that SKF play, sweet- up nearly 20% in a day, man oh man, rocking.


MARKETJEDI

Trade Call Update:Long SKF

Nice action on the SKF- Don't get too cocky as the bullish case might not be over with.
I am just thinking these dead financial have gotten too big of a bounce.


Be careful- Don't give up your profits

S&P- 805

Bears must hold the bulls below this level or we will be in break out city to the upside.

Trade Call:Long SKF

Yes! Playing this one again. Never been a loser and I must say I was one of the first to start using this before everyone and their mother started to play it. It is in my magical zone again of $95-105 and I think this area is a gift as usual.
Playing it here for a swing maybe longer than usual and as such I wont play the options.

If you want to play the options try some was out of the money ones like the $150 and see how that goes but the call is to buy anywhere $95-105 level.


MARKETJEDI

800- Kiss of Death!!!

Well seem like 666 (665.75 to be exact) was the bottom of this market for the bulls while the bears say we have rallied over 20% and that's not surprising in a bear market rally, so what do we do now.
To me nothing has fundamentally changed in the market just the FED and government printing more money and essentially setting the debt up for our children to pay. The banks are now seen as bargains even though the best analyst on the street Whitney says they will see a worse year this year and believe me I am on her side but we must remember just like how we remained oversold for a long time we can get overbought too.
The negative here is the time we have shot up so fast, if you aren't a trader and didn't have the stomach to be long last week you made zero from this rally. I bet you no one did!!! Hard to say what we do here but more than likely they try and hold a positive stand till this friday's options expiration and then next week the true story will be written.
If I was a gambling made I would be shorting here with two fist but since I am not I will wait for confirmation and a break of the last swing high on the downside. Bonds look sweet for a short but I am not touching it till the dust has settled. The metals should be in a zone as the dollar get whack because of this FED move. We will soon be carrying $100 bills like how we carry $20s just watch and see, might be a few years from now but it will happen.

The next bubble is just about to start here folks, I spoke about it last month, happening plain as day.

MARKETJEDI

FED Action

I know most don't understand what the FED did today but today the FED essentially printed 1.15 TRILLION. The announcement of the FED buying almost everything out there include car notes is one more sign how deep of a hole we are in. Now think about it if the banks were lending out money and the system was freeing up liquidity their would have been no need for such actions. Scary will be when the FED have to mop up all this money we will be looking at drastically higher interest rate, maybe as high as double digits. Remember all they have is .25% so they can't drop any further so they are printing money at the fastest rate ever seen.

Now folks I am telling you this HERE and NOW- We are almost at the top of this rally PERIOD. This is a PUMP and DUMP scenario and I will stick by it.

I also have my CRAMER signal saying the top is in. Cramer said this is the new bull market!!!! That means SELL. He is always wrong.


MARKETJEDI

WOW

Never seen such a move before FED is going to buy up huge about mortgages etc. Bonds are up $5 never see that before, NEVER. Don't play here folks just have your stops in and see what happens. I got stopped out on my futures on that spike.

This all will be massive inflation in the future

FED Announcement today

FED announcement today- Usually today is a very light volume day till the numbers come out and we get a direction. Most traders usually take today off.

MARKETJEDI

Volume

Volume today was the lowest volume in the last seven trading days. As we know price must backed by volume and this thus puts me on neutral here. Advancing issues was below last week tuesday and thursday huge days, so that also puts me on caution that the steam on this run is coming to an end. Just be careful out there it is easy to get crushed on these days where the movement is very choppy before we take a direction.

Bulls in Force

Very impressive move here by the bulls as I have said many time when we do get a rally it will happen very quickly. Now I am short here and maybe too early in fact I honestly though yesterday might be a near term top but the news today push us over even yesterday's highs. News rules! as you know especially in this market. We have got to respect the tape here and the bulls will no doubt have to rest if they want to continue this bullish stand for more than a couple of days/ weeks.
We are almost 20% higher off the low of last monday and that's an amazing run indeed. I would think a pullback around 50% of the move would be good to reset some more bulls as many people are on the sidelines. Now I am not turning bullish but you have to play the cycle and I should last month more than once that March would be very exciting more than likely having a near term bottom and so it seems so far, BINGO!!!!
Don't chase the long side here buying these banks and some of these techs are foolish here for more than a trade, the best set up would be to look for some exhaustion and short then on a decent retracement go long.
After today's strong action I do expect some follow through tomorrow and a possible climax especially with the FED announcement, also remember this week is option expiration and the week after we usually reverse option expiration week move so don't get caught flat footed.


MARKETJEDI

Resistance

Next serious resistance on the upside should be 792 on the S&P.

Best analyst on the Street

http://dailybail.com/home/bank-bailout-videos-cnbc-the-banking-oracle-speaks-complete.html

Fast Money=Lose your money FASTER

Geez HELP me it is 4:am and I am watching Fast money what a bunch of morons, how the helL these show are on tv I have no idea. Fast money should be called LOSE YOUR MONEY FASTER. They bawling about rally and I am like are you serious, New lows are coming 1000%, I think we get one more bounce then BYE BYE market again. Save me from laughing right now before I wake up my wife this show is classic :) Yippee I am going to buy MS tomorrow and BAC :) NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What I want to know is where is my TV show. I have a great name it will be called "The Broke Pocket strike BACK!" Man oh man folks I have to tell you guys the biggest joke. I had some guy who said that my blog is gay because I wrote I did gardening and my posts are boring. What he failed to understand my posts are 1000% accurate and my plays are 100% winners and on the note of me doing gardening I find it very relaxing to alleviate the stress from the work I do and I find it fulfilling to see nature at work. Now this guys who is so exciting! Blow out his account in a month and is saying the market is an asshole. I was on the floor, the market is an asshole! The market is smarter than all of us that's why you dont guess and you respect it. Maybe if he did some gardening and respected nature he would be more in tune to the movement of the markets and not let greed be his motive. I hope he reads this and I am sure he will but all I have to say is you are not even a pawn in this chess game called the market.


MARKETJEDI

Choppy day

Well the bulls gave it up after trying their best to give us a move up. If we didn't end down today I was planning on throwing in my bearish stand and think maybe the bulls really have a handle on it but there is nothing like resistance. 771 was resistance and that proved to be the monumental hurdle for them today.
Well the rest of the week should be fun because the bulls will have to make another stand or the relentless bears will start clawing back.
As I said believe it or not we are overbought and the bulls must rest.

Futures Traders-ES futures

Shorting 761 here for a hold

Hmmm- Interesting forecast on S&P

Just doing my weekend homework and friday Morgan Stanley lowered there year end estimates on the S&P to 825. Today we are 755 so I guess we are close to a top by Morgan Stanley. Who the heck knows with all these idiots they were calling for DOW 17000 :). Anyways tomorrow should be very interested and the important level to watch is 732.50. If that is broken I think we will have a down week this week.

Lets talk it slow here but I assume we are at or almost at a top of this little bump, we will see soon enough.


I have a play for you this week, I am just waiting till around lunch time tomorrow.


MARKETJEDI

Weekend Thoughts

Well sorry for no market thoughts last weekend and little posting in the week but I have been swamped and my sinuses are killing me as we enter spring. I was born with serious sinus problems and have tried everything know to man and nothing helps.
Well we got a four days bump and yes it is a bump in the markets last week. This week is options expiration and I expect us to get some volatility this week. It is from my experience that this week should be a down week since we usually reverse the action on option expiration week. Now this is going to sound very strange but we are currently overbought and indicators are already showing the rally is waning in strength. Can we go a little higher yes but it will just be a better short entry.
I am currently short the russell from Thursday and obviously I am underwater but I will ride out my bets as usual. The S&P is the one to watch this week. 766 is the next upside I see but on the downside we must defend that 734 area or the bulls will welcome back the bears in numbers and a quick shot down to 701 is possible. Remember we are up 90 S&P points in 4.5 days and we can retrace half of that and still remain in an uptrend of this little correction, so we will see.
The banks have bounced heavily and here is a good spot to add 1/2 lot to shorts again or initiate 1/2 lot in my opinion. Nasdaq looks weak and it is possible that the next leg down this is the sector that will lose the most ad I will be betting on that.
Watch GOOG short- also watch XLF 8.60 level to short the financials.


MARKETJEDI

Funny

Funny stuff but serious that NBC have people working to erase all of the Jon Stewart videos of him destroying Cramer and CNBC. Man I thought we had free speech but they will tell you some crap about copyright and hide behind that itself. Well if so be it then there would be no internet but I hope it proves to you how corrupt our system is and they try to discredit those who are try to spread the truth :). How funny DEMOCRACY IS :):)

Have a great weekend

Jon Stewart our HERO

Setting up

This will set up a nice trading short for us very soon. Don't worry as I said two weeks ago the sentiment was about to change because the short side was getting hard to trade. Where and how high we go? I dont know but just watch the financials as most believe they are cheap and the first sign or them as the insurers fading out the upside that will be the signal to get short. Yep folk that's how you have to play this one, up and down with the trend, this one will be sweet once again!




MARKETJEDI

Talking heads

Well folks again hearing the oh this is the bottom oh this is it again from the talking heads. Well as I said I expected a rally and expected it to run somewhere in 750 before resting. Well today we hit 750 on the March contract while we rolled over to the June contract which printed lower. My caution is too much too fast, I mean why are we bullish here, did something happen that I didn't know about. It is just a short covering rally to ease the pressure of for the next leg down, remember nothing goes in a straight line. Tomorrow we should have some profit taking as remember next week is option expiration so we could reverse this move easily. I am still neutral here poking minor stuff here and there but I am not ready to commit. Something is telling me the rally will last only a couple of days and we are on day three already so we will see soon enough.
Our shorts are still working and are so deep in the money profits that I am not even adding to them, just letting them play out as it may.
On a different note I posted a video and it was taken down because it spoke the truth about the media and the market (Jon Stewart video), this is the stuff the regular guy has to be afraid of seriously. Maybe they will take down my blog but who cares the point is why if it is not true why be worried, right CNBC, right CRAMER. In my book you are all just a bunch of crooks and not for the regular guy, who I am.

A HI-5 for JON STEWART!!!!



MARKETJEDI

March

Well I told you March would be significant and it seem to be proving that way. Firstly I have gotten emails about the rally and in my opinion I think it is just a bear market rally, what I do find bullish about it is that it pushes pass areas of resistance without much effort. Now longer term this year I do believe we will trade somewhere close to S&P 1000 BUT I dont think this is the beginning of that run. There is a good shot we test those lows THIS month and then I will be ready to go on the long side with more confidence.

Thursday

Tomorrow there is some debates on the market to market accounting and because of this I will take the day off. Reason being it can move the market either way and if you are on the wrong side you can get killed.
I would love to see some upside but I am cautious here as I am sitting on my hands till we get a true directional trend

Jim Cramer is a Criminal watch video

In light of the current economic crisis, and with the hullabaloo ignited recently by Jon Stewart over the accuracy of CNBC's reporting, we thought it might be useful to revisit this shocking 2006 interview Jim Cramer gave to TheStreet.com's Aaron Task.

In it, the host of Mad Money says he regularly manipulated the market when he ran his hedge fund. He calls it "a fun game, and it's a lucrative game." He suggests all hedge fund managers do the same. "No one else in the world would ever admit that, but I could care. I am not going to say it on TV," he quips in the video.

He also calls Wall Street Journal reporters "bozos" and says behaving illegally is okay because the SEC doesn't understand it anyway.

Here are some gems:

-On manipulating the market: "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund, and I was positioned short, meaning I needed it down, I would create a level of activity before hand that could drive the futures,"

-On falsely creating the impression a stock is down (what he calls "fomenting"): "You can't foment. That's a violation... But you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it." He adds, "When you have six days and your company may be in doubt because you are down, I think it is really important to foment."

-On the truth: "What's important when you are in that hedge fund mode is to not be doing anything that is remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view - it is important to create a new truth to develop a fiction," Cramer advises. "You can't take any chances."

Special thanks to our tipster Henry Chukuka! Keep those tips coming team!

For more on Jim Cramer and shorting stocks, click this.

TRADE CALL: AZOPH- AZO $140 April puts

Buying them here $2.0

Scenario

I am reading a bunch of people as usual calling for the bottom here. Based on my wave count which I am nowhere a expert we should expect any rally to be stopped in the 734-748 area. It is possible we could touch these levels today or tomorrow and that would be it for the rally. Obviously a sell off to 672 would negate the upside and down we head again, the crucial point for the bulls is obvious! Can they muster up a follow through day>?

Rally today

Rally today was powerful BUT some red flags were seen. Firstly it was technically just fast money working the upside and not real funds who need to put money to work and secondly it seem it was fueled more on the talks of instituting the uptick rule and possibly stopping shorting on the financials again.
Now what is funny is as I type this, Cramer is on TV calling for a bottom, hmmm wasn't he saying last week we heading to 5400, geez this guy is ALWAYS wrong just do the opposite of what he says.
The market has been up 3 days in the last 4 weeks and anyone who thinks this is the beginning of a new bull market you will get shot down again. For the few of you who email me on a regular basis I called for a bottom between March 4-9 I guess I was right on that one but i do see a lower low setting in later in mid to end of March, so we should check back with Cramer next week sometime when we might be lower, WHAT A LOSER!!!!
Let me show you something folks, today movement was all finance stock based because Citibank claimed they were highly profitable in the first two months of this year. I want to see that quarterly report because there is no way they can show a profit without some padding of the cash somewhere. Maybe all those businesses they sold they are saying that is profit when it is not from operations.
Who cares I believe the next time we test the lows we get the rally we all expect. This little upside should be capped at 740-750 level the most if it can get there.

MARKETJEDI

Trade Call: QID

1/2 share QID here - $62 area

Values to watch

On the upside we have 734 on the S&P to watch with some minor resistance @ 724 the gap from over a week ago. Folks I do think we will get a monster rally soon but this is not it. I still think we have lower prices then we get a meaningful rally.

Oversold Bounce

We have seen this so many times. A dramatic snap back rally in a bear market. The 10 biggest point up days were in bear markets so that should tell you something. Anyways dont step in front of this, all this does is give the bear some room for their next assault.

Must watch- Thanks Jon Stewart

Banks-

Banks seem to be getting some bid overseas but hmmm we mentioned it here over the weekend to short SKF as we expected this to happen. Should last at least a couple of days then back to the downtrend

2009 Short List

No excuses!!!!! about two months into the list and the list is profitable for 8 out of 9 plays. Congrats to those who played them

Metals

Gold and Silver looks like they want a rest here. If you are a futures trader I would take some on the short side and see how it plays out with stops above the last swing high. It is a good shot if Gold breaks down this year it will see the 600 area.

Weekend Update

Weekend Update- None for this weekend as I was extremely tired and decided to take a long needed rest. Here I think we might get a bounce but I will update more than likely tomorrow. One to look at short is SKF, yes I think it is overdone short term and should pull in back especially if we get a little rally. Remember nothing goes in a straight line and we welcome a rally to get back short.
Also the techs look like they will crack after the next little uptrend. Some you need to remember here is nothing can hold up in a bear market because when client want their funds, managers are forced to sell even good performer in order to get cash for clients.

I will update tomorrow for sure .

Hope you all had a great weekend.

MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL UPDATE :STT Short

Taking 1/2 off here +25%

TRADE CALL UPDATE: WFC short

Taking it off here +100%

Nicely done

Job Numbers

Today is the jobs number and if we gap up into them look for some resistance in the 702 area. Possible but unlikely we could ramp up to 712 but I doubt it with the action we have been having.

NEW PREDICTION

New Prediction DOW sub 5000 in 12 months!!!!!!!

Yes the Jedi said it. Remember he called DOW 6000 are when we were 12k?

Thoughts

Ok folks I have been very busy these last two weeks but here are my thoughts here. I believe we have close to a bottom if not at a bottom right now. I have noticed the action this week and the bears are taking profits the lower we go and that to be signals the downward pressure will soon subside. The weak long are being shaken out right now and when that is over, possibly between now and end of month we should go up.
The problem here is when does this all happen? I have a significant low in my analysis setting up in the next 2 weeks but I see many time cycle guys saying before next week, so I will use their projection instead of mine. A rally wont be a rally to DOW 12000 so dont look for any miracles as I said last year the market is broken major and need a long time to recover.
Citibank death, GE death ( read my post on Tuesday about huge put activity that was the signal GE was goign lower), WFC death and a whole lot more.

Careful here this is dangerous territory better to stay out till the dust settles.

MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL UPDATE :WFC Short

This one is a double in two week but I think it got a little more downside. Lock in some profits here and ride the rest for free.

That one was too easy.

ONLY WINNERS

TRADE CALL UPDATE: FAZ

Long term play FAZ average price was $47 and I called it a double. Little did I know it would happen this soon, traded as high as $104 today. Now that's what we call a WINNER.


ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We called the death of Citibank 15 months ago when it was $30.

TRADE CALL UPDATE :FAZ

FAZ the IRA play is now officially a DOUBLE.

Racking them up here.


ONLY WINNERS

TRADE CALL UPDATE: WFC short

WFC short is now up 100% in two weeks. A double here folks on the call.

ONLY WINNERS.

Anyone see citibank our #1 short for 2008??

Thursday

Downgrades of WFC should help our short more this morning- Folks financials are so dead it is not funny. Not much else to say beside from tomorrow is jobs numbers and we will see how trade position themselves today in front of those numbers.

Mid week Madness

Seem we are in March madness in the markets . Today was a extremely tough day to trade if you are a trader. We gapped up and trended higher but failed to materialize the bullish sparks at the end of day due to a sell off.
Although it was a positive day behind the scenes the failure to move us beyond the gap fill left from Friday has us on a cautious note again. This is the fourth day in a row we have sold of dramatically into the close and this must be frustrating for the bulls.
For you metal folks Gold and Silver looks lower. Cramer as usual is the kiss of death as he called a long on Gold when it was 970. I would not play the metals long for more than a trade short to medium term. I would not be surprised if we hit sub 800 on Gold in the near term but we will see soon enough.
Our shorts are rocking here STT, PALM, WFC are just ATM machines right here.
As for the Short List FOR 2009, we have some huge winners so far on our list. With 2 months into the year the list is positive and obviously outperforming the market.
Friday is job numbers so we might be on pause tomorrow as traders await the report, so I would not expect much tomorrow but who knows in this crazy market.

March folks we will find a near term bottom so stay sharp!!!!

Market

Market is rallying here but I am staying with the shorts on the blog, STT, WFC and PALM. They are up a gazillion in profits especially WFC.

Ride those suckers

ONLY WINNERS

Trade Call :PALM

We have an open short on PALM. They just reported earnings and it is terrible but the stock is halted. I am hoping it get crushed so we can take a nice profits from it.

ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Levels

Look for us to test 682/685 level tomorrow and maybe bounce. They are trying there best but that level is definitely an area they want before they head higher.
Scary thing here is that this sell off has no panic in it, NOT A GOOD SIGN!!

GE?????

I wonder if GE is in some kind of trouble??
They are buying puts like crazy @ the $2.50 strike price for June. Around 52k contracts

That is some big bet.
I wondering what is going on. It wont be good if they buying puts so low

Ok - Here is something important

This is very important what I have to say now. I strongly believe March as I said will be a very volatile and special month. I would not be surprised if March turns out to be an important turning point in the market. It is possible that March shows us a meaningful lows so we can go long.
This plays I believe will last a few weeks if not months with the easy money being made on the long side as opposed to the short side BUT I must stress it is not the ultimate bottom for the market.
People dont realize nothing goes in a straight line and from what I am seeing the selling is subsiding but the technical aspects of the market is pushing us lower.

So dont get scared when I say I am longing stock it is just for a trade as I believe the tide will turn this month.


MARKETJEDI

Technicals

We are in a technical area called DEATH :)

Rack up those profits my jedis dont listen to the idiots who are telling you to buy. SHORT SHORT SHORT till it doesn't work anymore.

Financials are all worthless good luck for you folks who are buying I hope you are around in 2 years.



MARKETJEDI

BINGO

BINGO is all I have to say!!!!!!!!


MARKETJEDI

DOW 6000's

Well here we are two hours before the open and it looks like a firm open below DOW 7000. Man oh man the overseas market s are melting but if you not short already you are late t the party.
Watch 712 area as a possible support area, we just hit it minutes before 7 so I am not sure, next area to watch is 709 and 687 further down. 687 today would be an ugly day for the markets.
Today folks will be interested but you already knew this week would be as we called this last week on the blog.

Lets watch and see the action.

Be very very careful shorting here!!!!!!!!!

MARKETJEDI

Dow Futures below 7000

DOW futures are below 7000 in the overnight session. I am sure we will have a good trading session later today , opps it is 1:30 am , WHY am I not in bed :)


MARKETJEDI

Trade Call: Short HBC

News out sunday night of pull out of US market. Funny this stock has been trying poorly the last couple of days and it is obvious folks knew of the news before hand.
SHORT HBC at open. This one looks dead


Another crazy weekend call.


MARKETJEDI