No action

Well first virus on my apple- Oh well too good to be true but it is better than having it everyday. Still trying to get everything up and running. I have no idea if my email was compromised through this whole virus/trojan thing. Man I just hate non working computers

wow

Well I got major computer problems and my email accounts have been hack- why the heck these scumbags don't use their talents for something good- geez-

Bernanke

Wow Bernanke not saying anything good. We said it before it is all smoke screen about recovery

SO

So analysis of yesterday action was dead on. Where do we go from there. Well! My technicals are tell me the market is around 16% overvalued here. So at DOW 10000, that puts real value of the market somewhere around 8400 area. We surely wont die yet till be break down down below 1021 on the S&P is my prediction. We are close but not close enough.

10000

Well we will open below 10k on the Dow, not an important technical number but it is a number the powers that be use in media land. What will happen today? My guess is that they will try and defend that area and close above it but that's just a guess at this point before the market open.
In the mean time AAPL looks like it wants it 200ma and tech land looks weak, actually very weak.

Welcome to the new US economy, I said it two years ago we heading the same way of Japan.

Close

Hope people taking note of where we closed- exactly at that 1051-1054 level. Just amazing. We hanging onto 10k on the Dow but how long.
In the mean time Oil is smacked dead, GOOD. Not ready to cover that one yet, that was a gimme play short in the 76/77 area, just too easy.

BINGO, BINGO, BINGO

Notice where we are this morning, 1051/54 area, folks will be buying here so watch for a minor bounce. If we violate this area on the close the bulls are shot.
BAC finally at my 12.75 area....
AAPL at my 242 area i mentioned yesterday.

Should be a very interesting week

Boring

Boring but where are the bulls? We definitely targeting 1054 here and more than likely there will be buyers around that 1050 level for some type of bounce. This is very disheartening for the bulls because if they can't push us higher off earnings what else will they have. There is no good news out there to hear and with the mid term elections just around the corner I fear the market will be stuck in the range for a extended period.
Notice we didn't even get to that S&P 1150 level.

Stay tuned-

AAPL looks like it wants lower around 242.

Hmmm- Only bad news abounds

All you hear is the bad. There are no jobs to be found, and that's just the start! The country is about to get into real trouble! Maybe A double (or triple, quadruple, whatever it's up to now) recessions are looming around the corner. Iran has just fueled its first Nuke plant, and vows to be mean if there are any actions against them! the market hasn't hit a new high lately, and of course, let's not forget the Hindenburg Omen, which is splattered across the financial publications both online and in print.

I think we are in serious trouble on that front, but I am a short term market timer and try to map out what will happen in the next trading ranges, rather than the next few years. I am pointing out that the negatives are stacked pretty high here, yet the market is not in a rush to crash, at least not yet.

We are SMACK In the middle of the 3-month range. As the chart above shows, the 50% Fibonacci retracement held both at the beginning and end of the week. We now want to see a trade above Friday's highs to put the bounce back in the Bull's step, at least for the short term. If not, and we trade below last week's lows, we open up the case for a push down to the next Fibonacci level.

I still believe we are in a rotating (range bound) rather than extending (directional) market currently, and until proven otherwise that's how I'll be looking to take advantage of it.

Interesting

Update

No support here till 1052 area, minor pause should happen at 1061 on the downside.

OIL just die for me.

1072

Very important level. Bulls have to try and hold it into the close or 1054 here we come

Stanley Druckenmiller Is Retiring

Wow Druckenmiller is retiring. He has never had a losing year since he started 30 years ago. But is is currently down 5% for 2010. He must see something going on. I think the tight range is making it less likely for people to make money in the markets.

Bill Gross

The biggest Bond fund manager in the world is saying that the US economy will need another stimulus in 6 months has the economy is not getting any traction as firms rich in cash are just not spending because their is a complete lack of confidence.
Another stimulus is just not the answer but we will see.


I am short Oil here average $76 area.

Got to be SHORT!!

From WSJ today

Could Wall Street be about to crash again?

This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.

I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. And I'm certainly not doing so now.

But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.

1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?

2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.

3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.

4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.

5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt -- even excluding the financial sector -- is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago.

6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s -- when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?

(Today's bonus question: If a laid-off contractor with two kids, a mortgage and a car loan is working three night shifts a week at his local gas station, how many iPads can he buy for Christmas?)

7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above.

8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell.

9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week, gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing." Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen.

10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks. Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO - News) has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above.

Very important

1072 is very important- When we violate that 10000 on the DOW would be my next signal that a head was formed in the 10600 area. Folk with all the corporate profits the market should have been over 11k but the FED damped the expectations and investors are once again nervous.
I said a couple weeks ago that i believe something is brewing as I often sense these movements about to come. The problems is it is just intuition on my part.

1072

1072 is very important today. A real violation of this number will make it very hard for the bulls to push forward but we will see soon enough. Funny with this market every time we think we set for a trend we reverse, that's the sign of a range bound market. I would stay out till a TRUE trend shows itself.Not much to say till the trend shows itself our, otherwise we will trade between 9800 and 10500.

Today's Action

So a huge day down but in reality no huge damage has been done yet. Notice on the chart we are back to the 50moving average and that was support. The beautiful of technical analysis! One thing is for sure we are in a void and rangebound market indeed.

Let's see if they want to break it lower to the lows of the range of use this 50 MA as some support.

FOMC

FOMC decision today. Nothing doing here today, decision should be out 2:10pm.

Where we stand

Here we are folks the Bulls made a good stand on Friday, after worse than expected Job Numbers sent the market reeling early on. After a nice base setup that originally looked to be a Bear flag, the Bulls stepped in and pushed the market back up into the close. while ti was still negative, the buyers made their point: They were using this weakness to get positioned on the long side.....at least for now.

The close back above the 200 day moving average is bullish and suggests we are ready to move higher. So, do we have the green light for full steam ahead? Well, not so fast.....

As the chart shows, there are key Fibonacci retracements that stand in the way of a full blown rally. For now, I will be watching those levels as backstops to short against IF A REVERSAL PATTERN SETS UP. YES, I AM HEDGING MYSELF! I believe we can see higher if those levels are breached, but I will not get stubborn if they prove to be formidable opponents.

The FOMC meeting is this week, and there has been a historical tendency to trade higher into it. coupled with the stand the Bulls made on Friday, I will be watching for weakness early in the week for a buying opportunity.

Job Numbers

Job numbers worst than expected but the drop in the futures is not much. Just have to see how is plays out. Maybe they want to hit 1150 on the S&P before they really sell- One thing is for sure, unemployment will remain high for an extended period of time.

Job Numbers

Job Numbers in an hour.
I bet we have some excitement today as I will be out, it always happens

POT-

Today, POT traded into the 62% Fibonacci retracement from the big move down that started back in March. If we break this level, the next one up is the 78.6% retracement at around 119.

GOOG Resistance

Watch the 50moving average for some resistance on GOOG. Back over $500 but don't think it will go far

No expansion yet

Longer picture of the rangebound- Expansion soon??

Yesterday

Definitely a choppy session Tuesday which leads us into what I think will be an expansion of yesterday inside day. Please note this melt up is on extremely low volume

Shape of corporations

You may have heard recently that U.S. companies have emerged from the financial crisis in robust health, that they've paid down their debts, rebuilt their balance sheets and are sitting on growing piles of cash they are ready to invest in the economy.

You could hear this great news pretty much anywhere — maybe from Bloomberg, which this spring hailed the "surprising strength" of corporate balance sheets. Or perhaps in the Washington Post, where Fareed Zakaria reported that top companies "have accumulated an astonishing $1.8 trillion of cash," leaving them in the best shape, by some measures, "in almost half a century."

Or you heard it from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, who recently said companies were "hoarding cash" but were afraid to start investing. Or on CNBC, where experts have been debating what these corporations are going to do with all their surplus loot. Will they raise dividends? Buy back shares? Launch a new wave of mergers and acquisitions?

It all sounds wonderful for investors and the U.S. economy. There's just one problem: It's a crock.

American companies are not in robust financial shape. Federal Reserve data show that their debts have been rising, not falling. By some measures, they are now more leveraged than at any time since the Great Depression.

You'd think someone might have noticed something amiss. After all, we were simultaneously being told that companies (a) had more money than they know what to do with; (b) had even more money coming in due to a surge in profits; yet (c) they have been out in the bond market borrowing as fast as they can.

Does that sound a little odd to you?

A look at the facts shows that companies only have "record amounts of cash" in the way that Subprime Suzy was flush with cash after that big refi back in 2005. So long as you don't look at the liabilities, the picture looks great. Hey, why not buy a Jacuzzi?

According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms borrowed another $289 billion in the first quarter, taking their total domestic debts to $7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. That's up by $1.1 trillion since the first quarter of 2007; it's twice the level seen in the late 1990s.

The debt repayments made during the financial crisis were brief and minimal: tiny amounts, totaling about $100 billion, in the second and fourth quarters of 2009.

Remember that these are the debts for the non financials — the part of the economy that's supposed to be in better shape. The banks? Everybody knows half of them are the walking dead.
Central bank and Commerce Department data reveal that gross domestic debts of nonfinancial corporations now amount to 50% of GDP. That's a postwar record. In 1945, it was just 20%. Even at the credit-bubble peaks in the late 1980s and 2005-06, it was only around 45%.

The Fed data "underline the poor state of the U.S. private sector's balance sheets," reports financial analyst Andrew Smithers, who's also the author of "Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers," and chairman of Smithers & Co. in London.

"While this is generally recognized for households," he said, "it is often denied with regard to corporations. These denials are without merit and depend on looking at cash assets and ignoring liabilities. Cash assets have risen recently, in response to the fall in inventories, but nonfinancials' corporate debt, whether measured gross or after netting off bank deposits and other interest-bearing assets, is at peak levels."

By Smithers' analysis, net leverage is nearly 50% of corporate net worth, a modern record.

There is one caveat to this, he noted: It focuses on assets and liabilities of companies within the United States. Some U.S. companies are holding net cash overseas. That may brighten the picture a little, but the overall effect is not enormous, and mostly just affects the biggest companies.

That U.S. companies are in worse financial shape than we're being told is clearly bad news for those thinking of investing in U.S. stocks or bonds, as leverage makes investments riskier. Clearly it's bad news for jobs and the economy.

But why is this line being spun about healthy balance sheets? For the same reason we're told other lies, myths and half-truths: Too many people have a vested interest in spinning, and too few have an interest in the actual picture.

Journalists, for example, seek safety in numbers; there's a herd mentality. Once a line starts to get repeated, others just assume it's correct and join in.

Wall Street? It's a hustle. This healthy balance-sheet myth helps sell stocks and bonds. How many bonuses do you think get paid for telling customers the stark facts, and how many get paid for making the sale?

You can also blame our partisan age too. Right now, people on the right have a vested interest in claiming businesses are in healthy shape. That makes the saintly private sector look good, and demonizes President Barack Obama and Big Government for scaring away investment. Vote Republican! Meanwhile, people on the left have an interest in making businesses sound really healthy too: If greedy companies are hoarding cash instead of hiring people, they can cry "Shame on them! Vote Democratic!"

As ever, the truth is someone else's problem and no one's responsibility.

When it comes to the economy, let's just hope the public is too hopped up on painkillers and antidepressants to notice. If they knew what was really going on, there'd be trouble.

UFS =-B-I-N-G-O

Wow this one didn't pause before it move higher- WOW

UFS

Pause then a continuation on this one is what to look out for

AAPL- Move coming soon!!!