Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Market

Don't be long here!! you will be catching a falling knife. The fact that Goldman Sachs couldn't give us a bounce and the market dipped below 12000 today make me think more and more people are giving up on the market. People we are not going to 14500 anytime soon. I remember end of last year Cramer screaming on tv that we will be above 15000 on the DOW in a year!!! why dont people all him out on that, just beyond rediculous. Why dont people call cramer's show and say, hey Cramer I bought some long spiders because you said we going to 15000 on the DOW.
We have a chance to see 10000 before 15000 in my opinion but then I dont want to scare people who read my blog :)
I will tell you this why would be market go to new highs when:
1) Trade deficit at record.
2) Dollar at all time lows.
3) Oil at record highs and going higher.
4) Housing at slowest pace in 23 years.
5) Housing prices decline largest in history.
6) Personal debt at highest level in history.
7) Unemployment highest in 7 years
and I can go on. All these factors and people looking for the market to go higher. Come on folks it aint happening. Not a hot in Hell. Don't invest in this market it is a traders market and you will be broker than broke if you listen to the idiots on TV.

OIL test

Oil made it almost to the magic 136.80 number I mentioned yesterday. I think that was a good showing and think the 139/140 test should happen before the weekend.

Dan Niles

For those who dont know Dan Niles, he was one of the few analysts in the Internet days to downgrade tech stocks. He got many death threats and had to hire private security for months. He just came on CNBC saying TECH will have a hard time in the next 12 months. His strong buy is EBAY and says beside from Solars stocks his fund is very defensive. This guy is very smart and one of the 3 analysts I listen to.

Just for disclosure I own 600 Shares of QID for the last month

Market struggling

Market is struggling to stay over 12000 level. I thought they would try not to end lower on an option expiration week but I guess the news isn't good enough for the bulls to push us higher

TRADE CALL: HIGH RISK PLAY

POT $240 PUTS @ 6.80.

High risk play they expire on friday

Market

Financial index breaching it March lows. oh oh .

SKF at 132- looking for new highs on that for sure. Pity I came out of all

OIL

Level to watch here is 136.80 on the upside. A break above that today or tomorrow SHOULD lead us higher

RBS Note

Well for all those who thing I am a perma bear.
RBS just said they think the S&P could drop 300 point before september.!!

Remember my long term target S&P is 1000.

They must be reading my blog :))

Wednesday morning

Seem like another down day before the open. Futures are down around 100 on the DOW and about 11 point lower on the SPY.
Financials again seem to be the loser and news yesterday of Goldman's analysis of more bank having to seek capital isn't helping. Here is a list of banks Goldman noted:
BAC
C
CRBC
CNB
CMA
EWBC
FHN
HBAN
KEY
MI
NCC
BPOP
TSFG.