US Dollar

Strong impulsive upside price action for the bucky this past week.

It appears that structure has traced 5 waves up off of the 75.08 L. The question now is - has the dollar bottomed?

Though it's much to early to make that determination, everything is in place for this to be the case.

Notice how RSI tried to break out of the 50% level once again. Will it be successful this time? My guess is that it will, but it may need to pull back again to get a running start.

We are right at the upper boundary of the channel with the 50 sma directly overhead. Both of these are potential resistance.
The 78.085 L is critical support for a bullish case. Should price trade through that level, then obviously, the trend has not changed.
The 77.74 H would be the next logical important pivot that needs to be taken out to the upside.
Throwing the fibs on the impulse wave, assuming it is complete, yields targets of 77.615 (100%) and 78.629 (161.8%).
Bottom line - We should see another 5 wave move up, once the retracement process is finished, if not already. Regardless of whether "the bottom" is in, we should see higher price near-term.

Bonds- 30 YR

The bond complex caught a bid late in the week after weakness early on.

Notice how the 30 YR put in a reversal candle (bull engulfment) on Thursday, the same day we had an explosive equity market. Friday followed through to the upside, finding resistance at the 50 sma.
The lower boundary of the channel was broken, which setup a successful test of the 117-18 pivot. The 50% retracement level was in the same area.
It appears that we have a 5 wave structure down off the 123-25 H. If indeed a 5, then we know, at minimum, we will see another 5. I have labeled this leg as a minor degree 1 or part of an X wave.
Bottom line - I expect to see lower price after a retracement process.

Crude-

Strange week in the crude pits. Big reversal Thursday, followed by bigger reversal Friday.

Friday's price action confirmed my suspicion of this corrective being over.

I will keep my interpretation that we finished a minute degree [i] wave at the 81.99 H, though it is an educated guess at this point.

Support is very near with the 20 sma at 76.59. I have also placed the retracement levels on the chart.
I am considering the possibility that minor B has yet to complete, though it is a low probability at this point.
One thing is apparent, the price action off the 81.99 H is corrective - not impulsive. This suggests that we should see new recovery highs in this market once the retracement process is complete.
The dotted vertical lines on the chart are placed at the pivot lows starting with the wave (A) bottom. Notice the fairly nice symmetry between these pivot lows, though not perfect by any means.
Should this symmetry extend out to the next pivot, it appears that we are somewhere around the halfway mark currently.