Google doesn't look like it will save the day this time around. With all the hype buying of the techs I think most optimistic investors will be left holding the bag once again on these stocks.
Someone ask why I am so bearish and the answer is yes and no. Yes in the big picture I think this market is vastly overvalued, I think the S&P has a target down to 570 and the DOW about 4700, when it touches those levels I will think about buying without keeping on eye on my holdings everday. No I am a trader and becasue of this don't think I dont get long in this environment. I often have gotten long intraday during the last month but I don't trust overnight to hold them or post those trades on the blog. This is a traders market and if you aren't swift you will make any money. For example this evening when Google reported earnings the stock was up some $30 and in 2 hours it was down, just think about it, You are an investors and bought Google thinking earnings were good today and what did you get a bump after hours then $30 fizzled away so now you back to even. Tomorrow who know where GOOGLE goes but I am telling you this GOOGLE will see $250 this year after the reality hits that earnings aren't recovering at the pace most think they will.
Next week should be interested and I feel like we will dive into the end of month when their is no earnings to keep us up. The trading is choppy and if you notice the volume is very light and manipulated towards the closing hours of the day when the big guys try to push up the futures. We are moving higher on lower earnings, lower volume, high unemployment and the constant news out of Washington. This is not a investible environment but we will play it as it comes.
Bye Bye GOOGLE,
Nice knowing you see you at $165 when the bear market ends.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Short term
Short term here we are getting numerous signals of the rally getting long in the tooth. If you are long oh yes you need to be nervous here. We hit that 865 level that I wrote about months ago as a important level on the upside (actually wrote 863/874), so be very very very careful.
GOOGLE OPPS
Maybe I should have said lower in two hours. GOOG is down $25 since I posted the last blog post!!!
Geez
who told you that they would blow out earnings. Man oh Man I tell you this smart money is going to be dumping some high priced stuff on some fools. Well folks we in a corrective pattern here and not much else to say. I still believe we will stay in the pattern till around June/July time frame and that means on any significant pullback I would be a buyer till that time period.
One thing to to careful of is that in earnings stock usually run into reports then sell off, look at GS. Google is up $30 at a little over $400 but in two weeks I can bet it will be lower, these are just patterns that play out over and over again.
One other very important trend to remember, we also reverse the movement of options expiration week, the following week. So since we are positive this week I expect us to be negative next week.
I am feeling a lot better but still under the weather and will be back in gear soon.
who told you that they would blow out earnings. Man oh Man I tell you this smart money is going to be dumping some high priced stuff on some fools. Well folks we in a corrective pattern here and not much else to say. I still believe we will stay in the pattern till around June/July time frame and that means on any significant pullback I would be a buyer till that time period.
One thing to to careful of is that in earnings stock usually run into reports then sell off, look at GS. Google is up $30 at a little over $400 but in two weeks I can bet it will be lower, these are just patterns that play out over and over again.
One other very important trend to remember, we also reverse the movement of options expiration week, the following week. So since we are positive this week I expect us to be negative next week.
I am feeling a lot better but still under the weather and will be back in gear soon.
Higher
Higher into GOOGLE earnings. Man oh Man the manipulation on options expiration is unreal. Remember guys I wont be around tomorrow - I DONT TRADE OPTIONS EXPIRATION.
Overnight
The craziness of the last 3 weeks continued overnight as we moved in a 15 point range in the S&P futures. This is unheard of but seem to be regular these past 3 weeks. One reason could be the light volume of the US participants in the globex so the Europeans traders have more weights on the markets overnight.
GOOG
Remember GOOGLILICUOUS reports after market and that can move the nasdaq. Dont be fooled remember GOOG co-founder is in Obama's administration and I am very sure they got some business passed their way on that. I am looking for a strong quarter and outlook but you never know but if I wa a betting guy that would be my bet. Where the stock goes is another question!!!!
JPM Reports
JPM reports this morning and looks like their net profit is down 10%. The stock is down pre market but come on the street already knew this two weeks ago when Dimon said the quarter would be rough.
JPM don't seem as strong in my opinion here. Think about it they changed the accounting rules and that didn't benefit them.
Telling you this here and now I believe BAC will be the top bank in the future. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
JPM don't seem as strong in my opinion here. Think about it they changed the accounting rules and that didn't benefit them.
Telling you this here and now I believe BAC will be the top bank in the future. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
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