We are in a difficult period to gauge what we are doing structure wise in the markets.
It's just one of those situations where we won't truly know what structure has traced until after the fact, which is not uncommon to most technicians.
It makes it hard for position traders, and to some extent, swing traders like myself to position a solid trade due to the tighten ranges here.
The 15 minute pit session chart shows an island reversal. This is basically an exhaustion gap that is followed by a breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
I am counting the move off the 1112.25 H as a 5 wave structure. You could argue for a 3, but I think it should count as a 5.
This implies that after a retrace process we should see an additional 5 waves down, at minimum.
It appears that we have 5 small waves up from the 1085.25 L, which I have labeled as a sub-minuette degree a or i.
Drilling down further, we can see that it appears that micro [A] is complete. We should get a small [B] retracement (levels on chart) when globex opens, followed by a [C] leg lower.
At that point, I would expect to see a 5 wave structure higher of sub-minuette degree.
Any trade through the 1085.25 L would invalidate this view.
The weekly view suggests that we should see additional downside pressure on price.
This past week saw price action fill the long standing gap from October 08.
Also to note we had a cycle high due and a new moon which usual signals a reversal in the market. All this suggests we may see lower price, though never a certainty.
