Sunday, August 16, 2009

Another important number

S&P has another important number @1025. Do we get another pivot point development or do we get a bearish butterfly.

984 is still a number to look at on the downside a break of that means the downside is now the trend and prove that 1006 was the pivot point for the bull and bears.

longer Outlook

Once in awhile i like to look on very large time frame charts to see where we might be in 3-5 yrs based on my cycle and fibonacci analysis here is a few things I see:
Oil look alot lower, that might seem strange as I think the dollar will get weaker but the only way that would be correct is if we enter a period of server deflation.
Grains also looks lower on a longer time frame.
Bond ditto.
S&P ditto.

I hope I am wrong on all these but it seems deflation will be our enemy and all asset classes will decline over the medium to long term. I hope I am wrong on this because massive deflation is a sign of depressionary period as people sell assets at any prices. Is what is going on in Real Estate a precursor to a big picture analysis, we can only watch, wait and pray.


MARKETJEDI

Crude Analysis Update





It appears that sub [b] has completed. Notice the break of the mid-line of the channel that had supported for a couple of days.

Price came within a whisker of the 23.6% retracement level of minor A. [c] = [a] at 57.39. The first little daily swing projects to 62.03, which is very close to the 38.2% retracement. All basis continuous contract.

Don't be surprised if they turn a triangle here. It has all the makings so far.