Another Year

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market ended a tumultuous year right where it started. In the final tally, despite big climbs and falls, unexpected blows and surprising triumphs, all the hullabaloo proved for naught. On Friday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 1,257.60. That's exactly 0.04 point below where it started the year. "If you fell asleep January 1 and woke up today, you'd think nothing had happened," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. "But it's been up and down all year. It's been crazy." It was a year when U.S. companies were supposed to run out of ways to make big profits. But they didn't, and in fact generated more than ever. It was a year when the U.S. lost its prized triple-A credit rating, which should have spooked buyers of its bonds. Instead investors bought more of them and made Treasurys one of the best bets of 2011. It was a year when stocks caught fire, then collapsed to near bear-market lows. Among stocks, there were some surprising winners. Scaredy-cat investors who bought the most conservative and dullest of stocks — utilities — gained 15 percent this year, the biggest price rise of the ten industry sectors in the S&P 500. Other winning groups were consumer staples, up 11 percent, and health care companies, 10 percent. Other market curiosities: — Bad year, great quarter. Despite disappointing returns in 2011, the last three months of the year were impressive, which could bode well for the new year. The S&P 500 rose 11 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average, comprising 30 big stocks, climbed 1,344 points, or 12 percent. That was the largest quarterly point gain in its history. The Dow closed up 5.5 percent for the year. — Best of the bad. U.S. stocks delivered little this year, but other markets did even worse, including ones in fast-growing economies. Brazil's Bovespa index fell 18 percent in 2011. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 20 percent. In Europe, many of the biggest markets ended down in 2011. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 5.6 percent, Germany's DAX 14.7 percent. — Buy American is back. A broad index of the Treasury market gained 9.6 percent, despite the fact that the U.S. government is now slightly less likely to repay its debt, at least according to Standard & Poor's. In August, the rating agency stripped the U.S. of its triple-A rating, citing mounting U.S. debt and political squabbling over what to do about it. For stock investors, 2011 wasn't supposed to end this way. At the start of the year, the Great Recession was officially 1½ years behind us and the recovery was finally gaining momentum. The economy added an average of more than 200,000 jobs a month in February, March and April. And U.S. companies kept reporting big jumps in profits, defying naysayers. The stock market roared in approval. On April 29, the S&P closed at 1,363, double its recessionary low of March 2009. Then manufacturing slowed, companies stopped hiring and consumer confidence plummeted, taking with it those hopes of big stock gains for the year. Adding to the misery, Japan was rocked by an earthquake and tsunami. That shut down factories run by crucial parts suppliers to U.S. firms, in particular auto makers. Gridlock in Washington didn't help. After much squabbling, politicians eventually decided to raise the cap on how much the federal government can borrow in early August. But the heated debate took its toll. The Dow Jones industrial average swung more than 400 points four days in a row — down and up and down and up. Overhanging it all was fear that the debt crisis in Greece had spread to Italy and Spain, countries too large for other European nations to bail out. Talk of another blockbuster year for stocks turned to dark musings about the possibility of another U.S. recession. And so stocks kept falling. On Oct. 3, stocks had dropped 19 percent from their April high. That was just one point short of an official bear market. Since then, U.S. housing starts have increased, factories are producing more, unemployment claims fell and U.S. economic growth rose. And companies are still generating impressive profits. Those in the S&P 500 have increased profits by double-digits percentages for nine quarters in a row. The good news pushed stocks up in the closing months of the year. The biggest winner in the Dow was McDonald's Corp, up 31 percent for the year. Bank of America Corp. was the worst performing stock, down 58 percent. Including dividends, the S&P 500 returned 2.11 percent for 2011. That means investors lost money after inflation, which was running at 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending in November. At least they're getting more than investors in the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which currently pays a yield of just 1.88 percent. The outlook for stocks in the new year is either great or grim, depending on your focus. Italy has to repay holders of $172 billion worth of it national bonds in the first three months of 2012. It will do so by selling new bonds. The question is how much interest they will demand to be paid to compensate for the risk they're taking on. If they demand too much, fear could spread that the country will default. That could sink stocks. After Italy was forced to pay unexpectedly high rates in a bond auction earlier this month, stocks fell hard around the world. There are also questions about whether China's economy is slowing too much and whether the U.S. politicians will agree to raise the debt ceiling again in 2012 or extend Bush-era tax cuts. On the bright side, stocks seem to be well-priced. The S&P 500 is trading at 12 times its expected earnings per share for 2012 versus a more typical 15 times. In other words, they appear cheaper now. Partly based on that many strategists, stock analysts and economists expect the index to end next year at 1,400 or more, up 10 percent or so. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.42 points, or 0.4 percent on Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 69.48 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,217.60. The Nasdaq composite index fell 8.59 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,605.15 The Nasdaq is down 1.8 percent for the year. Trading has been quiet this week with many investors away on vacation. Volume on the New York Stock Exchange has been about half of its daily average. Markets will be closed Monday in observance of New Year's Day.

Another Year another NOTHING

S&P range in 2011 was +9% to -14% and we closing the year flat at 0%. Nothing happening. I have been under the weather due to the weather always a bad time for me with my sinuses. Next week after the three day holidays it will be interesting to see how they will try and put a positive spin for the 2012. You will no doubt here that where ever the first five trading days go so will the year, oh really! they got it wrong this year but they will use it again and again no matter what. Commodities look like they are in sell mode still. Nailed that Silver short a couple weeks ago but anything stock wise just looks like a yo-yo to me - Happy New Year!

50% of profits and 3% wow-

The guy who is killing it at SAC Capital By Matthew Goldstein Move over Steve Cohen. The trader who is killing it at Cohen’s $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors this year is Gabriel Plotkin. The portfolio manager, who specializes in consumer products and the gaming and lodging industry, is one of the top producers this year at Cohen’s hedge fund, say several people familiar with the Stamford, Conn. hedge fund. Plotkin, who joined SAC Capital in late 2006 from North Sound Capital, is emerging as on Cohen’s most reliable money men. At SAC Capital, where most portfolio managers run books that range from as little as $250 million to $500 million, Plotkin manages one of the largest. His team of half-dozen traders and analysts manages about $1.2 billion of the firm’s money, say sources. And this year, Plotkin has delivered, producing a return of about $150 million from his trades. In October, Plotkin was a featured panelist at a Wharton Investment Management Conference along with Adam Cohen of Caspian Capital, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder and Michael Karsch of Karsch Capital. Plotkin works with SAC Capital’s Sigma Capital division. Overall, it’s been a generally strong year for SAC Capital. As of the end of November, the firm is telling investors its flagship fund is up about 8 percent after fees. By comparison, the average hedge fund is down 4 percent for the year. The reported 8 percent gain is impressive when you consider that Cohen still manages to charge some of the highest fees in the industry–charging a 3 percent asset management fee and then collecting 50 percent of the firm’s profits. Industry analysts and people who know SAC Capital well say using a back-of-the envelope calculation, SAC Capital is looking at taking in about $1.4 billion from fees alone. Then again, with some 900 employees, Cohen “has a lot of mouths to feed,” as one industry observer put it. But still there’s been some misses at Cohen’s empire this year. Most notably, the firm is said to have absorbed some significant losses on Dendreon and Green Mountain Coffee Roaster, sources say. Green Mountain is a favorite short of hedgie David Einhorn, who recently talked about his “big short” with Reuters editor and UF co-founder Jenn Ablan. Einhorn’s short bet on Green Mountain saved the Greenlight Capital manager’s year. Then again, Greenlight Capital is up about 5 percent on the year. By that measure Cohen is still out front.

11 companies on the Brink

It was four years ago that a punishing recession officially began. The financial pressure drove many companies out of business, while the survivors generally adapted and got stronger. But some firms are still struggling, whether from delayed effects of the recession, relentless competition, fresh strategic blunders or a turnaround plan that hasn't panned out. While a double-dip recession seems unlikely in 2012, CEOs are intently watching for a financial crisis in Europe or policy mistakes in the United States that could weaken the economy. And consumer spending, surprisingly strong in 2011, could decline once again, as overspent consumers get nervous. There's plenty that could go wrong, in other words, even though the economy is supposedly recovering. To identify companies with the thinnest margin for error, I analyzed data on stock prices, expected 2012 earnings and other financial measures provided by S&P Capital IQ, a financial-information firm. The companies I've highlighted had a weak year-to-date stock performance through mid-December 2011, indicating deep investor worry. These are also firms likely to have weak earnings in the future, according to Capital IQ's summary of analyst forecasts for 2012 and beyond. There probably will not be a fresh surge of bankruptcies in 2012, but in some industries there's likely to be consolidation as weak firms succumb to stronger ones. Plus, the usual forces of competition always produce winners and losers. Here are 11 prominent firms likely to struggle in 2012: Eastman Kodak. Stock decline in 2011: 85 percent. It's never a good sign when a firm denies that it's heading for bankruptcy, as Kodak has been doing. Kodak was slow to join the revolution in digital photography, while taking several wrong turns into fields such as pharmaceuticals and document management. The firm is now seeking to sell assets and find other ways to raise cash so it can return to profitability after five consecutive money-losing years. Investors are clearly worried: Kodak stock has recently traded below $1 per share, a threshold at which companies are sometimes delisted from major exchanges. Research in Motion. Stock decline: 76 percent. The once-ubiquitous Blackberry commanded 55 percent of the U.S. smartphone market in 2009, according to research firm Canalys. Today, its market share is less than 10 percent. Blackberry-maker RIM has failed to counter ruthless competition from Apple's iPhone and the many Android phones now available, with total Blackberry shipments falling recently even though the overall smartphone market is still exploding. Plus RIM's PlayBook tablet device--meant to take on Apple's iPad--has been a flop. A key Blackberry upgrade has been pushed back until late 2012. By then, RIM might be gobbled up by a goliath such as Microsoft or Samsung. OfficeMax. Stock decline: 75 percent. If the economy were booming, maybe three office-supply chains--OfficeMax, Office Depot and Staples--would all be able to thrive. But the tough economy, plus competition from discounters like Walmart and Costco, has put pressure on the whole group. Investors seem to have the strongest doubts about OfficeMax, whose stock has fallen significantly more than its two competitors over the last 12 months. Monster Worldwide. Stock decline: 67 percent. If the economy springs back and hiring picks up, this job-placement firm could thrive. But the economic rebound, of course, is painfully slow, with CEOs basically waiting to see whether another crisis is coming. It could be 2013 or later before they're convinced the clouds have passed. Meanwhile, new competitors are going online, hoping to cash in on the same hiring boom Monster is waiting for. Bank of America. Stock decline: 61 percent The whole banking sector is beaten down due to fears of a European crisis. Bank of America is under special scrutiny because of its disastrous 2008 purchase of Countrywide Financial, which has saddled the bank with billions in losses on bad mortgages, many of which may to sour. Investors worry that B of A hasn't fully revealed its full exposure to troubled counterparties in Europe or stressed mortgage holders. But if B of A skirts disaster, it may recover sooner than expected. Netflix. Stock decline: 60 percent. This once-hot movie-rental website endured an abrupt comedown in 2011 when it tried to separate its DVD-by-mail and video streaming services into two separate companies, while hiking prices on customers who want both. The fallout halted the firm's rapid growth in subscribers, just as competition from Amazon, HBO and others was intensifying. Earnings are likely to fall sharply in 2012, and some analysts think Netflix is a takeover target. KB Home. Stock decline: 46 percent. This California-based homebuilder has lost more than $2 billion since the housing bust struck in 2007, and analysts surveyed by Capital IQ are predicting another money-losing year in 2012. The company has slashed costs, targeted higher-income buyers, and refocused on smaller homes and innovative energy-saving technologies. But KB remains concentrated in several of the hardest-hit housing markets, such as southern California, Nevada and Arizona. With a housing recovery not likely to start until 2013 or 2014, at the earliest, the next 12 months look like another grinding year. Hewlett-Packard. Stock decline: 38 percent. HP is on its third CEO in less than two years, with the turnover reflecting strategic confusion that has impaired earnings, enraged shareholders and raised concerns that HP is too unwieldy to be run effectively. With operations in many business and consumer markets, HP has numerous competitors that have been nibbling market share, leading to disappointing results likely to continue into 2012. Some analysts worry that a heavy focus on acquisitions in recent years has left holes in HP's new-product pipeline. New CEO Meg Whitman may enjoy a bit of a honeymoon, but she'll need to prove herself by the second half of 2012. Sears. Stock decline: 34 percent. The nation's fourth-largest retail chain has been slashing costs and closing unprofitable stores, but analysts still expect a loss for 2012. More worrisome: A viable turnaround strategy still isn't evident. The once-prominent retailer, which now owns K-Mart, is in a no-man's land between formidable chains like Target and Walmart and online powerhouses like Amazon. With many economists expecting a consumer pullback in 2012, Sears may be forced into deep discounts or other desperation measures. Best Buy. Stock decline: 32 percent. When Circuit City folded in 2009, Best Buy seemed like a clear victor. But the same forces that hammered Circuit City--cash-poor consumers, ruthless price pressure, tough online rivals--are now hurting Best Buy, which recently startled investors with a weaker-than-expected earnings report. The retailer's prospects may depend on whether consumers pull back in coming years, to pay down debt and build up their savings, or find new ways to keep spending. Washington Post. Stock decline: 20 percent. The storied newspaper company has offset declines in its journalism revenue with profits from its Kaplan education subsidiary, which runs the well-known test-preparation service plus dozens of for-profit colleges. But new government rules meant to cut bank on student loans spent on for-profit schools will rein in the Post's cash cow. Meanwhile, ad revenue from the company's print and online news operations has been falling--with more competitors popping up all the time.

Santa?

Oh Santa Santa where are thou???- Closing at 1200 level is not a good sign. Maybe some of the last bulls will come in to give us a extremely low volume rally soon

Silver

Bye bye Silver. All commodities getting killed here Gold especially. In the S&P the next support should be around 1195 area

FED

Well a real up and down day, see saw nothing new it seem to be how the market will be for awhile. Big surprise is we didn't have a turn around tuesday and the early strength could not hold up the news from the FED. It is almost impossible for me to think why would the FED say or do anything here. All the big money is doing nothing and the FED being the biggest have been behind the scenes trying to boost up the financials with result. The news of over 7 trillion assistance from the FED to the banks is just amazing, it makes the TARP look like a joke. Volume is low now into the end of year and Santa Claus rally is just that a figment of the imagination just like everything else. On a side note we rallied hard after thanksgiving on the great sales data but like many I would really thinking how can the retail sector show any real turnaround. I though it was just heavy sales of low margin items and sales. Today news from Best buy proved my thoughts but I must admit I was think of scared to call the retailers as a short then but a good call it would have been.

Silver

Oh yes Silver taking it on the chin early monday premarket. More to come. This is more likely be the last week of the year for most traders. It should be an up week as we have many IPO on tap but this market is so crazy who knows especially when we get whip around by the Euro news. We will see soon enough.

Silver

Could be totally wrong here but silver looks like a short here

Rollover

To add to the confusion here today it is rollover day for many futures contracts. The S&P March 2012 are trying at a negative 7 points differential and Oil is also lower. I guess he big money thinking we will be lower in the new year.

Crazy morning again

we have lost 20 S&P POINTS IN JUST 40 MINUTES with the EU news and the market is not even open yet. Crazy - Just too crazy for me

Layoffs

so Citibank announced layoffs yesterday and today BAC starts their 30k layoff process, so if the banks are so much in a better state and the unemployment now down to 8.6% why are we having this news?? It is all garbage!!! Last week I read that the FED secretly loaned big banks the same banks that got 700 million TARP money over 7.7 TRILLION of funds at zero percentage after. Now just think about it the public almost over threw the politicians for passing the TARP giving 700 million but the FED loaned over 10 TIMES that amount after the distribution of TARP funds, AMAZING how no one thinks the FED doesn't run the state of the economy. The FED is the most powerful institution in the world and I will continue to say that. In the meantime I think banks will get smaller because their is just not enough risk out there for them to make super abnormal profits like once upon a time, why do you think they want to charge $5 a month for debit cards. It is obvious the banks are struggling to make money especially the investment banks just not enough to spread out these days..... If it is tough for the banks what about the rest of us!!!!

Downgrades

S&P Put Europe's AAA Countries (Germany, France, Holland, Austria And Luxembourg) On "Creditwatch Negative"

MOnday

volatility has being sucked out for the market right now. Can't fight the trend and the breadth here but boy oh boy do we look boring

Really

unemployment rate now 8.6% really!!!! Another new way to calculate the number and we get a lower reading is NOT real- The fabrication continues

This is HUGE

So folks the reason why their was a coordinated effort by central banks overnight was because a big European bank failed. This is trouble because why we are led to believe everything is fine we are actually crumbling. Something deep and big is brewing and 2012 will be the year the powers that be can't keep it up and we sell off hard. Remember I have a multi year cycle low coming late next year into 2013, that is something to really watch out for could be a real shocker but a great buy and hold when it happens

WOW

I guess the banks were on the brink again - for this intervention to come as a join effort is amazing. Hard to trade with this news driven stuff

1196.50

watching this number on the close- they trying to trade around it for sure- with 4 minutes to go

Number to watch

Number to watch into close is 1196.50. A close below that might signal yesterday was a drop in the bucket news rally-

Early

Early we getting some weakness- but most importantly we below 1190. 1184 is a good spot AGAIN for the bulls to show what they have as today is good as any other time as we could have a nice turn around Tuesday.

futures closed

Futures closed @ exactly 1190

1190

45 minutes to go the bulls trying hard to close this above 1190 to save that pattern- we will see soon enough if they can make it happen. It is Critical

1190-

1190 here - let see if we get a dip below to around 1185 and set up a bounce

Overnight -Pre market

We almost hit the 1190 level I spoke about in the post last night- we hit 1191.50 on the S&P futures and some might call this a hit. For me it must be tested in the regular trading hours but the market often does do what we want it to do. As I have been saying most the the market moves are being down outside of regular market hours because everything is computer traded right now and that leaves the regular guy out of the action. We will see what today brings, remember it is a holiday week and more than likely volume will start getting lower as we trade into tomorrow.

1215

No surprise for the last two trading days we have closed around the 1215 area. So fascinating to see technical work and we got to come to reason the markets will do what it will do no matter the news which i call technical noise. Now for this week and maybe as soon as overnight are number to watch is 1190. 1190 is the magic number for the bulls as a lower close would nullify the bull flag on the longer time frame. 1190 is do or die in my opinion and lets face it we only have a month left for the market to try and assume some rally to make it a positive year though just marginal.

1215

Buls have to try and regain that before the close or 1203 is definitely in the cards-

Flush

wow we spliced through 1215- 1211 here this is getting ugly fast. Something is going on this can't just be the computers selling

WOW

Soon after I posted be careful of a break soon we lost 13 points on the S&P. I am looking if there is news but none I could find for us to sell off so hard. 1217 here but 1215 is the number to watch. Wow wild market- two days ago it liked like we heading higher looks like a head fake

No Man's Land

Nothing esciting happening and this is a sure sign of a move coming soon. Don't get too caught up in being bearish or bullish as we can go anyway. Please Note though we heading lower here bulls still have the momentum till we close below 1190 on the S&P

Oanda to clients

Oanda, one of the largest online currency trading platforms for retail investors, has some unusual advice for its customers: Stay out of the market. “We are encouraging our clients not to trade right now, but to watch the market carefully,” said Michael Stumm, president and chief executive at Oanda, in an interview. Oanda this week sent an email to its clients, advocating that they move to the sidelines and watch the markets tussle over each new headline out of Europe. Oanda had over 29,000 U.S. clients at the end of the first quarter, the most of any retail broker, according to the most recent data available from research firm Aite Group. The brokerage stands to lose revenue if customers heed its warning and trading volume falls. Online trading platforms like Oanda earn money on the spreads between the offering and asking prices in each transaction. But if Oanda clients stay in the market and lose big, they’ll walk away for good, Stumm said. “We want them to be with us for the long term,” he said. Currencies have swung wildly and unpredictably over the last few weeks as European leaders have struggled to agree on a comprehensive fix for the continent’s debt crisis. On Wednesday, the euro traded at $1.3495, up from a one-month low of $1.3429 hit earlier in the day. “Our analogy is that if there is a storm brewing, you don’t go out in a sailboat if you are an amateur sailor,” Stumm said. “If you are a real professional and have weathered multiple storms, then it might be a lot of fun, and you might get a lot out of it. … And I think the same holds true for the forex markets.” It’s too soon to say whether clients are heeding Oanda’s advice, said Dean Popplewell, the company’s chief currency strategist. Currency traders say they are fielding more calls from clients of all types looking for additional guidance on hedging and investment strategies. “Companies are taking a much closer look at all of their risks,” said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange, financial markets and derivatives at National Bank in Toronto. “They are spending much more time doing due diligence about tail risks and currency volatility.” That volatility, Stumm said, is “generally not good” for retail clients. During the financial crisis in 2008, Oanda saw a substantial drop in trading activity as clients, disappointed by losses or overcome by fear, withdrew from the market. Oanda is seeing parallels to 2008. Volatility also surged just before the 2008 recession, cautioned Oanda analysts. This week, seeing no end to the European debt crisis, and the currency market tumult it was causing, Oanda hit “send” on its cautionary email.

Short term difficult to assess

Short term here it is difficult to assess where the markets will break out to- Right now we are in a trading range and we will break higher or lower inevitably but the true answer is when! We are trading around the 200MA and that makes its more difficult (above 200MA bullish below bearish). Also one thing I see on the charts is a munch of tight triangles showing bear and bull triangle but because they are coiled whether they go is the problem in assessment.

How a Financial Pro Lost His House

ONE night a few years ago, when the value of our home had collapsed, our debt was out of control and my financial planning business was shaky, I went to take out the trash. There was this enormous window that looked right in on the kitchen table, and through it I could see my wife, Cori, and our four children eating dinner. It was dark outside, so they couldn’t see me, and I just stood there looking at them. After a while, I pulled up a bucket and I sat on it, just watching my children eat. I found myself wishing that I could get back there, connected to the simple ordinary stuff of my family’s life. And as I sat and watched, filled with longing and guilt, two questions kept arising: How did I get here? And how am I going to get out of this? There are many stories these days of people who lost their financial bearings during the housing boom and the crisis that followed, but my story is a bit different from most. I’m a financial adviser. I get paid to help people make smart financial choices, and I speak and write about personal finance issues for this publication and others. My first book comes out in January, “The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things With Money” (Portfolio, a Penguin imprint). The thing that few people know, though, is that I learned a lot of this from experience. I made a bunch of mistakes, the very same ones that I now go around warning people to avoid. So this is the story of how I lost my home, the profound ethical questions that arose along the way, and what my wife and I learned from the mistakes that led us to that point. It made me better at what I do, but it wasn’t much fun getting there. Like most financial stories, this one is personal. It starts with me getting into the financial services industry more or less by accident. I answered an ad in 1995 that I thought was for a job related to “security” (as in security guard) but was in fact related to “securities.” That’s how little I knew about the stock market. A few months later I found myself working a phone at a Fidelity Investments call center. Things went well, and by 1999 I was a Merrill Lynch financial adviser and a certified financial planner. By then, we also owned a house in Salt Lake City. We’d bought it two years earlier, with a $25,000 down payment. A few years later, an opportunity arose to form a partnership with a successful Merrill adviser in Las Vegas. The place was on our top 10 list of never-move-to cities because we had always associated it with the Strip. But Cori and I were looking for an opportunity to have an experience somewhere else, and we met some great people when we visited the city. I took the job, and we moved down there. That was May 2003. Housing prices were already crazy, so we rented. But our neighborhood had zero character and lots of cookie-cutter houses. Within a few weeks, we were looking for a place to buy. I felt we could afford around $350,000. We called a real estate agent named Mitch, who had signs on all the bus stops: Talk to Mitch! He picked us up in a gold Jaguar, and suddenly we were looking at houses that listed at $500,000 or more. It felt a little crazy to be shopping for houses that cost half a million dollars, but my income was growing rapidly. Everywhere I looked, people were being rewarded for buying as much house as they could possibly afford, and then some. There was this excitement in the air, almost like static. I started to think that if I didn’t buy a house right then, I would never be able to afford one. At moments during our house hunt, I felt in my gut that something wasn’t right. We’d go to open houses for $400,000 homes and see lines of couples in their late 20s — younger than we were — waiting to get inside. I kept wondering where all the money was coming from. How did all these people make so much? But prices just kept rising, and when people kept buying, that made it seem safer. I knew from my work as a financial adviser that following the crowd could be costly. But like everyone else, I felt safer in a crowd. We didn’t find anything we liked with Mitch, but one day in September 2003 Cori spotted a for-sale-by-owner sign in a really nice neighborhood. We ended up buying the house and paid the asking price of $575,000. (When we tried to negotiate on price, the owners were amused; it just wasn’t that kind of market.) We borrowed 100 percent of the purchase price. In fact, I was told I could borrow even more if I wanted. I had perfect credit and a solid income that was growing. But even so, when the lender approved us at 100 percent, it was more than I had expected. I remember thinking something like “Wow. I guess if they’re willing to lend it to us it must be O.K.” I should have known better. No matter how well things are going, borrowing 100 percent of the purchase price of a home is not a good idea. I shouldn’t have relied on someone else to make that calculation, let alone the guy who was making money putting me in the loan. I was a financial adviser, and I never sat down to figure out what it would take to make this work. I just wanted to believe him. And it was so easy to believe he had been right, at least at first. We loved living there. The children went to an awesome public school, and we made some great friends. I could ride my bike to Red Rocks, the wilderness area outside of town. And for a time, the real estate market erased any doubt I may have had. It just kept going up. One evening in 2006 comes to mind. My sister-in-law was thinking of moving to Las Vegas, and a real estate agent told me about an open house for a new Toll Brothers community. This wasn’t a come-by-for-cookies type of open house; it was held at a Las Vegas hotel ballroom. I arrived to find a line that led down a flight of stairs and out of the front door. Before I got to the front of the line, they stopped admitting people. Then people rushed the door, like it was a rock concert. The market’s continued strength meant we could borrow even more. It was easy. In late 2004, a year after buying the house, we refinanced our mortgage with World Savings Bank, which later ended up in the hands of Wells Fargo, using one of the pick-a-payment loans that let you choose your own payment each month. We picked the lowest possible payment, the one that added to our balance each month instead of subtracting from it. And we added a line of credit with Wells Fargo. The extra borrowing power was important, because while my income was growing rapidly it wasn’t enough to support all our expenses. Around that time, I left Merrill Lynch to become an independent financial adviser, so it was easy enough to convince ourselves that we were borrowing to pay for the start-up costs. There was some truth to that, but we were also borrowing against the house to finance our lifestyle. The line between business expenses and personal ones is sometimes hard to draw when you run your own business, and during those heady times it seemed even harder. But in hindsight it is clear that we were spending more than we should have on things like recreational gear and family trips for ourselves and our four children. It was extravagant, but it seemed modest compared to what some of our neighbors were doing. Our house was the smallest model in the neighborhood (though at 3,500 square feet it was hardly tiny), and we drove a Chevy and a VW. Cori and I and some of our friends had a lot of conversations comparing our spending habits to those around us. How can so-and-so afford a boat? How are people buying new trucks and four-wheelers and 5,000-square-foot homes? Do they know something we don’t know? At times, it seemed as if maybe they did. I knew a builder of custom homes who urged me to buy one of his houses for close to $2 million. I told him there were at least a million reasons why I couldn’t do that. He looked at me like I just didn’t get it. He assured me the house was appraised for $200,000 more than the asking price, and that after I lived there I could take out a line of credit to live on while the house went up even further. The crazy thing is, he was right. The place eventually sold for more than $3 million. When I heard that, I felt a little silly that we hadn’t taken that risk. As for our spending, we told each other that we’d catch up later, as my income and the value of our home continued to rise. As late as February 2006, a comparable home in our neighborhood sold for $998,000. We made the classic mistake of projecting recent trends — even extreme ones — into the future. But slowly — and then increasingly — we began to have a different kind of conversation, “When are we going to stop and just get on top of this?” The solution was always making more money, not cutting back. The fact is, it’s much easier to set a goal of making more money in the future than it is to buckle down and cut back today. We never really worried that things would go to pieces the way they ultimately did. But then came the collapse in the stock market. I had clients calling in tears and breaking down in my office. People who had never worried about their portfolios were calling me from their vacations. It was like talking people in off a ledge virtually every day, maybe three times a day, for maybe 90 days in a row. The range of potential outcomes had gotten so broad in people’s minds that it now included the end of the world. What they wanted and needed more than anything was reassurance that things would be O.K. and that they should stick with the investment plans we had created together. Providing that reassurance had been my job for 10 years or more, but this was the first time that I really wondered if my advice was right. It was my job to assist them, but I found it incredibly stressful. It didn’t help that we were in increasingly dire straits ourselves. My income fell about 20 percent because my take-home pay depended on the amount of money I managed. At the same time, our cost for health insurance and property taxes kept increasing, and the payment on our mortgage reset higher as well. By then, housing prices in Las Vegas were falling quickly, and the bank had cut off our home equity line of credit. We quickly got rid of a car and stopped taking trips. I moved into a smaller workspace and cut back on my administrative and marketing costs. Even so, we found ourselves using credit cards as emergency stopgaps. Then, the sickness set in. The pain would start in my stomach, and then I’d spend six hours vomiting. It happened once, then three months later it happened again, then one month later it happened yet again. Eventually, it was happening every couple of weeks. The doctors couldn’t find a physical cause. Right around that time, it became clear that we might need to get back to Utah, where 90 percent of my (still nervous) clients lived. We spent the summer of 2009 living in my in-laws’ basement in Salt Lake City, while I tried to stabilize my financial planning business. By that fall, I was convinced we had to move back permanently to save the business. But that meant we faced the question of what to do about the house. By then, we owed over $200,000 more than our original loan balance. Borrowing that much had seemed to make sense when the value of the home was still rising substantially every year, taking our net worth higher with it. But at that point, there was no way we could sell the home for anywhere near what we owed. Some of my friends were already doing short sales, where the bank agrees to let you sell the house for less than your loan balance. I was also aware you had to be three months behind in your payments before the bank would talk to you about the possibility. At first, I dismissed the idea of a short sale. Late that summer, I sat down with a really close friend in Las Vegas, someone I looked up to. He cut to the heart of the matter right away: Why, he wanted to know, were we still making the payments? Because I have a moral obligation, I said. You pay your debts. He proceeded to explain that I didn’t have a moral obligation to the bank. I had a moral obligation to my family. I had a contractual obligation to the bank, along with a clear moral obligation to be honest in my dealings. What he was asking was this: Which is more important? Your contractual obligation to the bank or your obligation to your family to preserve your ability to make a living? I had never thought of it that way. But it made sense. I summed it up to myself like this: I have a contractual obligation to the bank (as well as a moral obligation not to skirt the consequences of breaking it: losing my house and wrecking my credit score). But my moral obligation to my family trumps the contractual obligation to the bank. Cori and I thought about this for months, but we finally decided to let the house go and stop making payments so we could pursue a mortgage modification or a short sale. The fact was, we didn’t have a choice. We simply couldn’t afford it. I remained troubled by the ethical implications of what I was doing, but I soon started seeing some of my friend’s arguments echoed in the work of Brent T. White, a law professor at the University of Arizona. He and others were arguing that homeowners should act more like companies — taking into account legal and economic reasons for stopping a regular payment rather than “perceived moral obligations.” That was reassuring in the dead of night while I sat in front of the computer trying to make sense of the world financial markets and my own personal situation. I remember being relieved at discovering a way to frame my decision. But we didn’t know what would happen in the harsh light of day, and we were scared to death. Would we be kicked out of our house? What would the neighbors think? What would the children think? We worried about the stress on our relationship and even the survival of our marriage. I felt like a complete failure. We looked into a mortgage modification, thinking it might let us keep the house and rent it out after we moved. But the offer from Wells Fargo, which owned our loans by then, was too modest. That meant we could either walk away from the house or work with the bank to do an orderly short sale. A bank representative came to the house and met with us. He was such a nice guy. Cori had treated it like an open house, and the place was spotless. The guy said he’d never met anyone more qualified for their short sale program. Somehow, even in that horrid market, we sold the home for $531,000. That was in late August 2010. In exchange, the lender released us from both our first and second mortgages. Today, Zillow estimates the home’s value at $505,000. We were pretty low when we packed up to leave. We hadn’t told anyone about the short sale — not family and only one or two friends. But we sensed that people knew anyway. We borrowed a truck from a friend who owns a wood mill to move our belongings. Back in Utah, we found a house to rent— much to my relief and after months of being terrified that we’d never be able to find a landlord willing to take a chance on us. I had to tell the owner what had happened. He looked at our personal references and let us lease the house anyway. We love where we live now. Still, there are consequences. We lost our home. It’s not clear when we’ll be in a position to become homeowners again. But the worst thing was my sense of complete failure and powerlessness when I realized that things were out of control and that it was my fault. These days, there is still a sense of genuine regret that I screwed up and hurt myself and other people. I still worry about what others think of my behavior, which is one reason I haven’t shared this story with many people until recently. We have a friend who is under water on his mortgage even though he has lived within his means and done everything right. He’s sticking with his mortgage for as long as he can. Someone recently asked me what I’d say to people like him. I guess I’m saying it now. As I was writing this article, I pulled behind a truck with a bumper sticker, “Honk if I’m paying your mortgage.” I thought about that for a while. I guess one of the ideas behind that bumper sticker is that people like Cori and me who couldn’t afford to pay off our mortgages are to blame for the financial crisis and the bank bailouts that followed. This isn’t the place to explain the causes of the economic slump, and I’m not the guy to do it. Still, the questions linger. As I ponder all this — and I think about it a lot — it occurs to me that we are a nation of risk-takers. Some of us were overoptimistic; some were ignorant; some were deluded; some were greedy; some just had bad timing. We erred to different degrees. Our experiences varied; each story is different. Now you know mine. The experience has changed just about everything about how I do financial planning and the advice I give in public. For one thing, I am less quick to judge other people’s financial behavior. I’m also more inclined to take into account personal factors that determine how people behave around money. I have a friend who is going through a tough time financially. He has a high income, but is burdened by debt from a few real estate deals that went south. He continues to take fairly expensive ski trips. That would seem irresponsible in his situation, and maybe they are. But I now realize that it is not that simple. Maybe those trips are keeping the guy alive, or saving his marriage or keeping him sane enough to work. I have another good friend who borrowed against his house to pay for a therapist. Unless you were walking in his shoes you might think that was stupid, but it saved his life and changed his career. It ended up being one of the best investments he ever made. The process of making financial decisions is about more than building a spreadsheet to calculate the answer, because life rarely fits cleanly into a spreadsheet. Our decisions often appear irrational until we understand the whole story. I’ve also learned some things about risk. Risk is an arbitrary concept, until you experience it. And I’ve noticed myself focusing more on the consequences of something going wrong than just the probability of that happening. As a result, I tend to urge my clients to make decisions that err on the side of caution. As for Cori and me, things are much better now. Moving back to Utah clearly was the right choice. The business is doing well, and we’ve managed to pay down most of our debt. It would be easy to say that we’ve learned our lesson, that we’ll never screw up again. But it’s not that simple. At times I’m absolutely clear about what makes sense. Then ordinary life choices arise, and things can get cloudy. Should our children play sports that cost money? What kind of family vacation is O.K.? How much is enough? We’re still working on that last one. But we are asking the question, repeatedly. And the temptation to overspend, to go for it, to tell ourselves that things will work out in the long run, is tempered by a feeling that something big is at stake. All I have to do to remind myself of that is to remember what it felt like to stand outside the kitchen window two years ago, looking in on my life, and thinking I might not get it back.

Interesting action

We selling off all gain this morning in just one hour but most importantly do we hold 1222 on the S&P or we test that 1218 again

GOLD

Gold getting sold hard today as well- Oh well!

WYNN Update

Mentioned that WYNN looked like a short below $125 a couple days ago, now trading @ $118. Good shot this one goes below $100 on continued weakness

Apple update

Not looking too good for Apple here.

APPLE

Selling hard two days in a row

Bingo

So overnight we hit 1218.25 as the low as mentioned yesterday that should be the next level of support. The problem with the markets now a days is that 80% of trade are done by computer quants and seem like they are doing their technical plays in the overnight market and that makes it harder for the live traders in the regular hours anything but gamble with news. Quants writer are smart and are taking full advantage of technical whether it be overnight or regular day time hours. Now for today 1250 should be strong resistance but if we can got above 1252 it would be considered bullish. I am on the fence here since the action overnight is what I was expecting today.

Nasdaq

Can't believe the selling the nasdaq put on today but when you got Apple down $10 what do you expect.

Seling Hard here

we lost 1235 fast - 1226 here but next support is 1218

BINGO

He is the 1235, now what do we do

Searching for lower prices

Got a small bounce but loks like the market wants 1235.. Huge question is if we hold there for we head lower. Markets again negative for the year.

Cracked

Market getting cracked here- Amazing how sentiment has changed within a couple of hours. Market is fragile real fragile maybe it will be a buying opportunity but new lows after first hour is not good and we would need to get new days high after lunch to negate this selling

News Driven

All News Driven here- after yesterday's bullish close we are down over 30 S&P points before the open. I have to definitely echo the sentiment of many managers this is the most difficult market I have seen ever, I guess for once I agree with the talking heads like Cramer etc . When will this phase be over who knows

NUAN and BIIB

Trading well here i still like them providing we trade modestly higher, I do expect these two to make new highs

1281

looking for 1281 area on the S&P soon. still looking for 1301 if we go higher mentioned last week

New again

just moved 8 points in the S&P on news out of Euro that Berl will resign- All news generated market here

Oil

WOW- between oil and the Euro the market is just in crazy mode. Technically aren't working as everything is reacting to the European concerns. Lots of funds are going under to my understanding with the ill faith of MF Global fallout. They are not reporting that they are changing margin requirement and so forth and that might be the reason Oil is heading higher, lots of strange dynamics going on here but I believe why it is not on the television is they dont want to scare the mom and pops out of an already fragile confidence towards the markets.

GOLD

Gold is looking like it is gaining momentum- I have a projection of new highs and target of 2150 on Gold in the next 6 months. We will soon see

Poverty In America increases

In September, the government reported that a record 46.6 million Americans were living in poverty. But a new report released Monday by the Census Bureau using a more sophisticated method to measure poverty rates has found that the true figure is even higher: 49.1 million, or 16 percent of all Americans. It's not just the raw number that's different under the new measure--it's also the breakdown of who's poor and who's not. Using the new Census methods, the share of the poor who are over 65 jumps from 7.6 percent to 12.7 percent. And the share who are under 18 falls from 36.1 percent to 27.7 percent. In other words, kids aren't doing quite as badly as we thought, the report suggests, while seniors are doing far worse. What accounts for the changes? The Census Bureau's traditional poverty measure has changed little since it was first developed in 1963. The old poverty calculus has several important shortcomings: It doesn't take into account the impact of non-cash government benefits such as food stamps and tax credits; it doesn't include expenses like out-of-pocket medical costs; and it doesn't factor in varying costs of living across the country. The new method, known as the Supplemental Poverty Measure, fixes these problems. "The new measure is going to give us a better sense of the extent of poverty, and who's poor, and the effect of government programs," Jane Waldfogel, an expert on poverty at the Columbia University School of Social Work, told Yahoo News. "So in all those respects, it's vastly superior." Take the issue of out-of-pocket medical expenses. Had they not been factored in, the report states, the poverty rate for seniors would be 8.6 percent. Under the new measure, it's 15.9 percent. "So that one element alone is huge," said Waldfogel. The new findings also demonstrate the value of government programs in keeping Americans out of poverty, Waldfogel said--just as Congress is mulling cuts to some of them. Were it not for the Earned Income Tax Credit, for example, the new measure shows that the child poverty rate would be 22 percent; without food stamps, the rate of child poverty would be 21 percent. With both those programs factored in, it's 18 percent. "The good news here is that we do have a social safety that is designed to reduce poverty among families with children," said Waldfogel. The new method also will likely somewhat reduce the salience of the "poverty line" as the be-all and end-all way of measuring poverty. Because Census' revised measure factors in more expenses, it raises that line for a family of four to $24,343 from $22,350. But under the new system, that threshold isn't hard and fast--it varies depending on where you live, and on whether you own your home and therefore aren't paying rent, among other factors.

WYNN

LOOKS weak would set up a short below $125 area

WOW

WHAT A MESS- JEFFERIES now halted and 30 minutes in we have sold off 200 points and 20 S&P points. this is crazy

WoW- WILD

40 POINT move overnight on the S&P, this is just crazy, news all over in the Euro zone. To be in here is just guessing as it is all being new driven here.

Two stocks I like

BIIB and NUAN

FOMC

FOMC meeting today so trading volume should be light coupled with the MF Global confusion we might see the volume extremely light this weak. Remember we have a tendency to trade higher in the FOMC announcement so this early strength should be the catalyst of this. I don't expect much in the markets today. All eyes are on Italy and the Euro

CRAZY

See why you dont jump into the markets during this time. Everyone thinking last two week we are safe and everyone on television saying we are in bull mode but we are down 70 S&P point since sunday night. Got to just keep it light or stay out.

Not a household name but HUGE implication

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MF-Global-files-for-rb-3630437589.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Another MESS

Game Over. And in the meantime, we get the following report from a media source: "CME’s acting like the MF Global thing just happened. They’re haphazardly locking traders out who clear with MF, blocking access to the floor of not just MF Global employees but people who clear through them. As a result, nobody wants to leave the floor and nobody who still has access wants to trade just to get locked out." MF GLOBAL just filed for bankruptcy

Important number

Most important number on the upside is S&P 1307 which is the 78.6 Fibonacci. On the downside here early we should watch 1274 then 1262

European

Berlusconi proposed asset sale of 5Billioneauros a year is really impressing the markets

Confidence numbers

numbers were the lowest since March 2009.

Imagine

Just Imagine when APPLE has a miss like Netflix-Wow it will be a huge dive

NETFLIX

Wow over $200 less than two months ago. Nothing changes

Believe it or NOT

Believe it or not the S&P IS NOW FLAT FOR THE YEAR- Ten months and we have gone NOWHERE!!!!!!!!!!!!

BINGO

1250 hit - now at 1252

1250

Just infront of 1250 number is a gap @ 1248.75 but if we hit 1248 today I am sure we will tag 1250. watch 1253 after

New Week

What a turbulent week last week. We are still bouncing off that important 1068 number and I am sure the bulls are trying for that 1250 now. Lets not get into a totally bullish mode as we are just in a retracement play in a larger bear market. Can we go higher than 1250 sure! Actually I have some projections all the way up to 1338 but who knows as we are just trading off the European economics problems. I have a stock play that is going to be a long term play that I will post soon. I am just waiting for the right spot to get in. Lets see what they want to do this week. Also remember the trend is we reverse the option expiration week move so this week probability is down but I would not bet the farm since we are trading 90% off news.

Not Much

Not much to talk about the markets are once again in the negative for the year and it seem we will be around this area for awhile till be get out of earnings season. Rough to trade here as we are in high volatility mode with no real direction. Today the tech names as PCLN, AMZN, BIDU, and SINA are getting hit. Also didn't help that IBM and BAC earnings weren't that great. We have to watch for volume as it as been very low which should tell you to beware as the big guys are NOT playing here so why should you.

DOW

DOW now flat for the year- A year of nothing :)

Year to date

Nasdaq down 2.8% S&P up 2%

Interesting

As most know I am a strong player of trends. Last night was the start of earnings with AA and their earnings disappointed. We are gaping up on the basis that earnings season will be as expected and this is perceived as good. One thing to note eight trading days ago we were trading below 1100 and now we are at 1200 before the open. Lets see how we react for the next two days and see if that run up was a earnings rally and we sell on the news of earnings. Will see soon enough

Goldman on the Economy

US Views : OK for Now, But Slowdown Ahead By Jan Hatzius October 9 (Goldman Sachs) 1. After the sharp slowdown earlier in the year, the US economy seems to have grown at roughly a trend pace over the summer. Our GDP “bean count” now stands at 2½% for the third quarter, the ISM indexes are broadly stable in the low 50s, payroll employment is growing at a pace of around 100k per month, and the unemployment rate has been flat for the past three months. 2. Although the recent US growth news has generally beaten low expectations, we expect a renewed deceleration to just a ½%-1% growth pace in the next two quarters and see the risk of renewed recession at about 40%. The main reason is the turmoil in the euro area, where we switched to a recession forecast last Monday. To be sure, there is more talk in Europe about the types of action that we think would help, including a larger financial safety net for sovereign issuers (perhaps achieved by “leveraging” the EFSF), proactive bank recapitalization, and monetary easing. But policy continues to move very slowly relative to the building risks in the financial system and the deterioration in the real economy. A true turnaround in the financial situation does not yet appear to be in sight, let alone a bottoming in the real economy. 3. There are several channels through which the European crisis is likely to weigh on US growth. The impact via reduced exports is the most obvious, but it is unlikely to be very large. Exports to the Euro area account for about 2% of US GDP, so an impact of much more than 0.1-0.2 percentage point would probably require a much deeper European recession than we are forecasting. The bigger issue is the significant tightening in financial conditions and the availability of credit. Since early summer, our financial conditions index has tightened by more than 50bp, a move that might shave ½ percentage point from growth over the next year. In addition, there are some early indications of tightening credit availability including an increase in the percentage of small firms reporting in the NFIB survey that “credit was harder to get” last time they tried to borrow (the next update is due on Tuesday). Tighter credit could easily shave another ½ point or more, for a total impact from Europe on US growth of 1-1½ percentage points. Should the European recession deepen, the risk of further dislocations in the financial system and greater spillovers into the US would grow (for more on this, see Andrew Tilton’s US weekly dated September 16 at US Economics Analyst: 11/37 – Will the European Storm Cross the Atlantic?). 4. One key question is whether the European crisis—and the unsettled fiscal policy environment more generally—has caused a sufficiently large increase in uncertainty to lead companies to postpone hiring and capex decisions in a self-reinforcing manner. There is some evidence that corporate behavior may be changing, as online job ads have dropped off and the percentage of firms increasing employment in the nonmanufacturing ISM survey has declined at the most rapid pace on record over the past two months (data go back to 1997). No such deterioration was visible in Friday’s payroll numbers, but online job ads lead by a month or two and most of the ISM responses probably came after the payroll survey week, so the jury is still out. 5. The other key drag on US growth is the tightening of fiscal policy. Our baseline assumption remains extension of the employee-side payroll tax cut and passage of a small business hiring incentive; we do not assume extension of emergency unemployment benefits (although this is a close call), a further expansion of the payroll tax cut as proposed by the President, additional infrastructure spending or aid to state governments, or another foreign repatriation tax break. We also expect the Congressional “supercommittee” to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases that cover part of the mandated $1.2 trillion in savings over 10 years; the remainder will likely come via automatic cuts that take place from 2013. Overall, we view the risks around our assumption of just under 1 percentage point of fiscal drag (excluding multiplier effects) in 2012 as roughly balanced at present. 6. Even in the baseline case of no recession, we expect additional monetary easing as the Federal Reserve supplements “Operation Twist” with yet more purchases of long-term securities financed by creation of excess bank reserves (that is, additional QE). We believe that this could still boost growth a bit by further reducing the term premium in the Treasury yield curve and thereby ease financial conditions. But policymakers are clearly running into diminishing returns. If they want a bigger impact, they will probably need to supplement additional QE with changes to the Fed’s monetary policy framework. A relatively incremental version of this is the proposal by Chicago Fed President Evans to promise no monetary tightening until the unemployment rate falls back to 7%-7½% and/or inflation rises to 3%. A more radical version would be a temporary increase in the Fed’s inflation target or a move to price level or nominal GDP level targeting as discussed by Jari Stehn a couple of weeks ago (see US Economics Analyst: 11/38 – The Fed’s “Unconventional” Unconventional Options). 7. While additional easing is likely eventually, we currently do not expect a big move at the November 1-2 FOMC meeting. This is based partly on the somewhat better data and partly on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remark in his congressional testimony that Fed officials had “no immediate plans” to ease further. Of course, since Bernanke also said that he saw the economy as “close to faltering,” it probably would not take a huge amount of new information to change his mind, but for now our best guess is that the next statement will be less eventful than its two predecessors.

1068

Still holding as the bottom and surely was a great call. In the mean time just read John Paulson fund lost 47% year to date as they were too bullish. If those guys can lose anyone can lose but the problem is everyone want to be in the market. I warn a lot of people this year not to be heavy in the market because volatility is going to kill us and it surely has- Earnings season starts tomorrow and we should wait to see how earnings is perceived before we dive in. In my opinion, and this is just an opinion I think there is a good shot to get back to 1216 on the S&P and possibly 1250 but we have to wait and see. Right now we are overbought and we are still in a big picture bear market please.

1068

As said that 1068 would be a great number and it remains to be the bottom of this move up. I am very surprised at today's action as with the job numbers coming out tomorrow I was thinking we would flatten out at the end of the day but that was not to be. Maybe they know the numbers and are front running it but since I am not privy to such information I will sit back and if this is truly a rally I will reset. This is the fourth quarter and we are down for the year which is important! More than likely this is where fund managers must take risk to beat average benchmarks are they will get ZERO bonuses or fired. We all know the finance guys love their bonuses so what does this mean? Well it means we will be alot of momentum going especially if there is buying, as average funds can only go long. Watch of the job numbers tomorrow and if they are bad and we rally that is a sign we are chasing relative performance into the end of year.

R.I.P

Steve Jobs a true innovator the world will miss him

1068 rally-

Read my post at 8:53am, exact to the tick on the S&P 1068 HELD WE 40 POINT ABOVE Correction 50 point above

BINGO

1068 held like a champ- trading at highs of the day- 1104

One Question?

One question where are the Bulls calling for 1500 on the S&P in May. Why dont they bring them back on the Television?? Regular Wall Street pump and dump and the public.

1068 holding

1068 holding we now trading @ 1091

Weak still

Though we held 1068 we are still weak here- Bernanke is talking so that might be the problem. Should be key that 1068

BAC

New lows on BAC- Buffet is the MAN!!!!

Bingo

Hit 1068 and bouncing. Lets see how far we bounce. Death to BAC.

1045

Also 1045 comes back into play as it did on the the upside

OK folks

Ok folks this is what I see here. I see some support at 1068 area in the S&P. We traded down to the 1071.50 area before market opens but I would be getting out of shorts at 1068 level or 1056 a lower point as I believe we will get a reflex rally off those points if we hit them- I could be totally wrong here but the risk reward is surely compelling. On a time projection analysis I do see another low in three weeks and that tells me October might not be a pretty month for investors.

wow

wow seem like they want to test 1100 if not 1096/7 area

1106.75

That was the September lows 1106.75 we have to watch that level carefully

Crazy

Got in last night - computer system not working, car no working everything falls apart when I am not here. What a way to start the week. From the pattern we are at here we are obviously going to test the lows of the year.

Worst quarter since financial crsis

last Quarter was the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis

Markets death

Traveling yesterday through airport I got a chance to see the bloodbath of the markets on tv monitors. I had no idea how bad it was till I got internet connect where I am and saw the financials, Gold, Silver and even Oil shot down heavily. It is so funny I ALWAYS miss the big days having appointments or traveling. Good I had set up some shorts when everyone was saying buys that are now well in the green. Here i am looking for new lows on the Financials, I expect GS to make new lows, BAC, MS and everything else in that sector. Gold looks ripe for the pickings as I said before it is just a matter of time before we get deflated on that one before we go again higher. Based on yesterday action as I am away overseas I would say everything was being sold and as such I would look for the regular Gurus like Cramer and such to be in the tube saying this and that stock is CHEAP. Yep I agree and they will get CHEAPER. Remember in the grand scheme of things I think when the stocks like GOOG trade down to 300 area that's when we will get a real good buying opportunity everything else now is just a short term buy for a trade. The market is weak and I would just be buying here at all I dont care. I truly believe those in cash now will be rewarded when we go much lower to really get a nice spot to buy stuff.

GS

GS heading slowly but surely to my $78 price target. Below $100 here

Dark

Blog will be dark till I get back early October- In the meantime my system is also giving me problems (Windows grrr) while my faithful 4 yr old macbook has never had a problem with software, go figure why APPLE stock is at all time highs. BAC long term debt was just downgraded and at last look it was @ mid $6 range. I would not be buying anything here AT ALL. I don't care folks. CASH is a position just have patience and either you will have cash reserve to buy very cheap or you will have cash to put on short positions if we go higher- I think we are panning out a top here and the higher pain would be 1245 while I think we will crack 1110 on the S&P and head to 1080 but it is a chop fest till then.

BAC

Once again below $7.00

Reality of America's Poverty

http://news.yahoo.com/behind-poverty-numbers-real-lives-real-pain-151738270.html

Blog Dark

Blog will be dark for the next two weeks. Have been having system problems and on top of that I will be traveling for business and have to prepare presentations. Just not enough time to do it all.

BlackRock says Managers are hurting

Reuters) - Tumultuous markets and financial problems in Europe are hurting profits in the asset management industry, according to Laurence Fink, chief executive of BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK - News), the world's largest asset manager. "This (volatility) is not a good short-term trend for the asset management business," Fink said, speaking in New York at a Barclays Capital conference on Monday. He said BlackRock, which oversees more than $3.6 trillion, will seek to maintain its profit margin by being "even more disciplined" on expenses. Most large investors continue to shun equities and other relatively risky assets and favor fixed-income securities, Fink said. The trend may be appropriate in the short term but not over the long term, he said. For long-term investors "it makes no sense to have a portfolio of bonds, other than being frightened of the world," Fink said. "Right now, maybe being frightened of the world is a good position to be in." BlackRock's iShares exchange-traded fund business has recovered from problems last year, Fink said, which he blamed on poor management at one particular fund. Performance of the iShares Emerging Market ETF (Pacific:EEM - News) trailed its benchmark index generating substantial "tracking error," he said. The problem has been corrected, he said. BlackRock's share of net new money coming into U.S. ETFs was 26 percent to 27 percent in the first three quarters of 2010 but fell to 16 percent in the fourth quarter. It has since bounced back to 24 percent in the second quarter of 2011, Fink said. He said BlackRock's ETF performance was "poor in the last year and much of it was our doing." "It wasn't because of the success of Vanguard," he added. "It was because of the failure of BlackRock." STOCKPICKING Asked about his favorite stocks, Fink first joked that he was not a portfolio manager. "I'm the overhead," he said. But he said BlackRock sees long-term value in some beaten-down European blue chip stocks like Siemens AG (XETRA:SIEGN.DE - News) and Nestle (VTX:NESN.VX - News). "Even in financial services, I do believe there are some great opportunities in Europe," he said, pointing specifically to insurance giant Allianz (XETRA:ALVG.DE - News), which owns U.S. money manager Pimco. Shares of New York-based BlackRock dropped $2.35, or 1.6 percent, to $148.72 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares have fallen 19 percent over the past three months, almost double the decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Robots run our markets

http://www.automatedtrader.net/headlines/88707/robot-traders-set-to-oust-humans-from-trading-floor

Greece

CDS is now pricing near 100% that Greece will default

Monday

Market just hit it first downward target of 1124 before the open- 1104 and 1079 are the next lower numbers in the ABC pattern. obviously it wont happen today but I strongly believe we will bounce before we die. I could be totally wrong on that but we will definitely hit those 1104 and 1079 numbers.

Lows

lows at 2:30, not a good sign for the close- expect us to end at lows of the day

Action Cont'd

Next week could be ugly if we end the day like how we are training. I thought we would have gotten at least up to 1210 but I guess 1203 was all she got, which signals weakness to me.

Action

Very weak action hear so far- we got initial support @ 1154 on the S&P but we look like we can get better support @ 1144.50. Market very weak here but I am assuming it is again news out of Greece once again.

Listening Bernanke

Essentially saying we got it wrong at the FED and our forecast for optimism at the June meeting has been lessened

Bernanke

except of his speechto be presented out- Market doesn't like it and we looking at session lows-

Still Higher

Still think we tread higher. I am not convinced we crash and burn here - Daily pattern looks overall bearish but looks like a corrective more will push up higher first. I could be wrong but playing what I see- GOOG looks like it wants 550-565

Rollover today

Also today is contract rollover on the indices so this might cause a little hiccup in the market trading today

Higher

Expecting higher out of this pullback.

BINGO

So we hit 1201.50 overnight, actually 1202 and now we are negative 30 minutes into the trading day. Sitting watching the action but I think Obama's upcoming speech has most on the fence.

They trying

They trying to hit this 1201.50 today before close??
Let's see

S&P

numbers to watch on the upside- 1201.50, then 1211, then 1230. These are the measured Fibonacci numbers

GOLD

Still hoping this one comes down to the $94/5 area for a long trade. Still got a ways to go.

Nice

Nice move on the upside just little volume. This is the best situation for the market here as we started September as the worst September in 30 years. The bad thing is this is a measured move and it will end after it hits its targets. First target is 1201.50 which is a gap in the S&P then we have 1223. I would love to see the 1230 area for a nice shorting opportunity.

Very Interesting

http://www.businessinsider.com/josef-ackermann-euro-banks-speech-frankfurt-2011-9#ixzz1X76elvHS

Back

Back from a great trip over the long holiday. So getting on the computer about an hour ago to see what happened while I wasn't here and kaboom the futures are down huge overnight. over 250 DOW points and 30 S&P. I am sure there is some news rattling the overseas market but as I have been saying this market is going to have a rough time.
I can't understand why people needs to be in the market! CASH is a position, folks buying and saying a stock is cheap is no reason to buy! those stocks can get cheaper and something most people dont correlate is that when funds are selling they sell everything. Actually alot of funds now trade ETF heavily and that means no individual stock is spared from this volatility.

For those who believe the banks are cheap, I say this "They will get cheaper actually alot cheaper, so no need for me to step up here and guess this is some bottom". GS is bound to see $75 before all the selling is done, MARK THAT DOWN. BAC too will see below $6.50 very very soon.

I wont believe the selling is over till GOOG gets close to $400 or in the $300 area but that's just me.

Away

Going away for a few days but doing some work on a larger time frame - The S&P looks like it can make a bullish pattern which would target 1241 then 1275. We will see how it pans out after we get back from the holidays. In the meantime we are moving on little volume and expect it to get worse going into the holiday weekend.

Light

Very light volume on this trading day. I expect it to be like this till after the holidays so no forcing stuff here- Higher resistance looks like 1223 area on the S&P and would be a nice short area if we hit it overnight since we are due for a turn around tuesday.
Watching Oil and Gold as I believe they will soon start moving inversely, YES I said it but we will wait for a signal.

GOLD

Look for some support on GOLD around 94 area. Looks like a bullish pattern developing and I would be buying at those levels

Warren Bufet

Well Warren Buffet can't save the markets maybe he will save BAC for the moment but just look at the reality of this amazing gap up and they all sold it off in the pits. That should make us really cautious that the big guys want out of this market.

APPLE will suffer the same in a year I can see that stock much lower. I have to admit Steve Jobs is one of the most is not the most visionary minds of our times, it will way on the company for sure. I remember getting my first MAC computer @14 and it has been a love affair ever since.

Wish him all the blessings and hope he can recover fully from this cancer

BAC

Important number for BAC is $5.75, must hold this number on the downside or we will visit the $3 range

1124

There goes 1124- no support there though. Next support between 1111.5 and 1112.50

Yawn

Just a slow day but watch 1124 on the S&P for some support. Looks like we in the summer dull drums

Option Expiration today

Option expiration today- no doing anything today so blog will be dark.

GOLD

With Gold at all time highs I look at what could be resistance next.

$1972 is the resistance area to watch

Interesting

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/market-death-cross-mode-stay-sidelines-says-louise-152153683.html?sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

BINGO 1115

THAT WAS FAST

BINGO

New lows here- look for 1115 thought market will close in less than 10 mins

UGLY

Crazy volatility. I am so dizzy from watching my screens, just amazing.
We look like we want to visit the lows again before the close

Advice

Stay out of the market- CASH is a position - this is chop you up to death. market just news driven by hour by hour news.

No fundamentals no technicals

FED Day

Well I don't trade on FED day but I wish I did this time as the volatility and test of yesterday low proved that a bounce was on tap. As I said yesterday and obviously hind site is 20/20 I thought we would get a bounce and it might have proven that I was dead right on the exact day of the bounce here.
The FED did its job of really telling the money managers that the economy is really on shaky ground and they dont see it improving for another 24 months. Yes this might sound bad but what this does is not make manager wait on every single meeting wondering what the FED or economic outlook might be and as you know the "Unknown" is always a problem with markets.
I expect this bounce to last maybe a couple days and possibly into weeks but I will play it very short term as the last week has been really volatile to say the least.

First upside resistance should be 1208-1212 area then 1245 which I think is where we should find some heavy resistance. Now if the FED signal their might be a QE3, I expect us to ramp much higher. As I said yesterday or the day before the risk reward was no longer on the side of the shorts and that's why I wouldn't be short.

Will see what we can muster up here for some longs.

WOW

This is amazing- FED basically saying the opposite of what they have been saying the last couple meetings. FED now believe we will be weak for the next two years. I think they have decided to stop telling lies and just face the markets.

Market looks like it wants to die-

snap back

When we get a relief snap back it will be brutal. We are stretched here to the extreme. Right here the shorts have less risk reward

WOWO

HERE IS 1121- DO WE HOLD OR CRASH??

Thoughts

After a huge gap down and continued selling to make new lows after lunch is not a good sign.

DOW 11K

Trying desperately to hold 11K, here on the market

PANIC!!!

1140 DIDN'T HOLD!!!! Next support I see is 1121.50 if 1136.50 dont hold here.

BLOODY

Blood Bath

Geez- 1152 not holding-
maybe 1140 holds but this is ugly

WOW

We really hit 1152. low was 1151. still looks like death- seem we going lower but waiting on confirmation. this might provide support

1152-53

Watching 1152-53 for some meaningful support at least short term.

To bounce or not to Bounce

Well folks been saying for awhile this market is on rocky grounds mainly based stimulus from the FED through extraordinary tools and low interest rates. I think there is some serious support @ 1153-1155 area and I will be buying some longs if we get down to that level tomorrow. If we head down to that level tomorrow obviously it would be a ugly day but technically we are oversold though that says nothing as we were massively over bought for a long time.
I read over the weekend that the average 401K was down $12,000 last week alone and I wonder if investors will get scared enough to fuel a massive sale of stocks here to park into cash. Right here CASH is surely king but I believe with the Debt ceiling issue out of the way and the debt rating out of the way we will find some stability here and regain some of the losses we have seen in the last few days. I am nowhere a bull and if you been reading my blog for awhile you will recall I have said we will find a high in the year 2011 in this massive bear market, so I expect us to see a high in the market for the next three years this year. Do we get higher than where we were this year who knows but I am playing longer term time frames on the view that 2011 we will hit a high.

Job Numbers

Futures bouncing hard from job numbers. Still waiting on the dust to clear to see what is really going on.

Funny

Turned onto CNBC to listen for a second, WOW. These were the same guys said to buy when we were at 1350 now we lost 100 points in a week and they saying sell.
HMMMMM

CRUSHED

Markets getting crushed here- glad to just be down minimal this is not looking good.
everything is being sold

Massive

Massive bleeding but no sign we at lows of the day

1230??

If we break 1236 today I am expecting a test of yesterday's lows of 1230 on the S&P.

WILD

Wild market here- Again best move is to stay out- till we stabilize

1252

1252 was traded low of June and closing lows was 1259. I expect us to test 1252 if not today maybe in the overnight session

both DOW and S&P are now under 200 MA on daily charts

1259

1259 is the June lows- A close below there would be very negative

Vote done

Should get a bounce here before the news media analyze the deal tonight. Let's see if we get some relief from the selling

Below 12000

market struggling with this debt deal still. Economy is slow time to stay cash or play defensive but even the defensive stuff getting sold into

Tuesday

Well 90 mins in and it seems that traders forgetting it is Tuesday. Yep maybe first in awhile we wont get a turnaround Tuesday. We are slowly grinding lower here

Nasty

Nasty action here- new lows and breaking thru support level-

STAY OUT OF LONGS

WOW

Blew through those levels. death!!!!! we hit fridays lows. so long to that huge gap up

GAP UP

Gap up is being faded HARD. Why? the debt resolution needs to go away before we really settle down. Been saying for the last two weeks stay away and wait. I bet people bought at open thinking everything is ok but we are not out till be get the debt ceiling talks over.


Look for support at 1288

Caution

That's why I said no trading till debt deal out of way- Trying to buy stuff here is crazy. Debt deal is the mover.
This could end up being an awesome long side trade but you got to be patient

RIMM

RIMM looks so weak- I remember it was just early this year it was @ $70. I know they were going to be weak soon because when I was going to get my android I said to myself is anyone buying blackberries anymore. OLD TECH!

Caution

As I been writing stay out this market till this debt issue is done- S&P getting hit hard here in the early going

Market

Market looks like it wants to close the gap and go positive- Still far off but setting up

Monday

Starting the week premarket looking very negative. Thursday and Friday volume was extremely light with all the debt ceiling talks and the futures are down on the news that there is no deal yet. I don't expect much to happen in terms of volume or move till Washington gets a deal done but know Washington this is going to go to the wire as both parties are trying to score political points.
When announced I suspect the initial reaction to be up and due to the light volume it wont take but a few big traders to up the market significantly higher initially, what will be the true test is how we trade a week after the announcement. Till then most managers and funds will be on the sidelines.

Problems

Why are we down didn't AAPLE save the economy??????
where are the bulls?

APPLE to save the markets

Markets anticipating a banger of a earnings from AAPL and we are on to new highs for the days.

Interesting FACT

The S&P is up a whopping 8% over the last 10 years.

!!!!!!!

What is the Surprise

Weak earnings from BAC and GS and the street it is acting like it is a surprise, REALLY!
Too optimistic folks are about the banks when they are stuck in a dirt for awhile. There is a reason why the banks are not lending money and it is not credit related it is because revenue streams are drying up. I believe we will go through another period of bank consolidation because they are just not solid enough to survive wall street expectation in this weaker economic climate.
GS expenses fell over 23% and they still missed revenue targets because trading revenues were down 50%. Cut in half why? it is harder to trade and they doing what they should DON'T trade in this type of market, I have been saying this for awhile on this blog.
Lets see if they can hold the 1300 level today. that is a Value area to look at.

Broken

So 1295.25 is broken, next level to watch is 1290.50. I am thinking that will hold or the 1288.50 but 1290.50 is a fib level.

Breadth is pretty nasty

Lows Cont'd

Broken- it is expected 1295.25 be tested today.

LOws

Overnight lows hit here- if we can't hold I am looking at 1295.25 as the next support which was last week overnight lows.

Before Open

Well the summer dulldrums are here!! Friday volume was so light it was impossible as a trader if you are to do anything. Well this morning Gold made it over $1600 obviously mainly due to the debt issues that are plaguing the US. We are going to open negative but we have been holding that 1300/1301 level pretty well but we will see what happens today.

Things to come

GOOG, Citicorp or JPM earnings could not save the market. Even with GOOG blowout the nasdaq is barely up. Not a real good sign, show sellers are outnumbering buyers

Amazing

For those who really think the market move randomly really need to study the market force- Today after all that action on the upside we managed to sell off and test the overnight lows of 1302, just amazing. Now I am very surprised that with GOOG earnings out we are only up a tad in the futures and this makes me think we are in a prime zone for some weakness. I really think we are panning out a top here but honestly not 100% confident so will play it as it comes.

GOOG and Market

I am wondering if GOOG earnings leaked why the market is so weak here?
Or maybe this is one big huge trap for the bears

1310.50

Nothing much happening here- new lows for the day but far away from the overnight lows- watch 1310.50 for some support

Positive today?

If we get positive today I would be looking at that 1329 level on the S&P. In the mean time Gold is en fuego obviously because of all the bad news in Europe and the US Debt crisis, yes it is a crisis.

Overnight action

Overnight action again took the futures down to 1302 on the Moody's announcement of US downgrade. 30 mins before open we are trading at 1317 level. Seems like 80% of the action in the markets seem to be overnight while the daytime action is muted.

Market Problem

The real market challenge for average folks is that most of the movement is happening after hours. Last night the futures hit a low of 1295 and opened this morning around 1313. Now that move overnight would have give an average person who was short huge returns but since there is no way to play over night action if you are an average guy, the big guys just rack up. This is one of the reasons why the big boys can still make money and the small guy can't.
So where does that leave us today. Well I am hoping we do get a turn around tuesday but almost 30 mins into regular trading we are just bouncing around opening prices.

CNBC- IDIOTS

Everytime I try and watch CNBC I see some news that is not true- They have a huge running ticker 10 mins ago saying BAC is trading at all time lows, REALLY! Thats the lowest BAC every traded??? Does anyone call them to tell them they are posting wrong info? What a waste of time to watch!!!!!!!

Interesting

So where the big guys pushing the markets up for the small guys to think we are in bull mode or have the European problems bigger than we think. All I know this is one crazy and hard market to trade and this proves it once again to keep it small and know your stops. Alot of volume today on this downside so most of the reflection points should be hit on the S&P. S&P hit 1314.75 which was support and we bounced almost 6 points off there while Obama was talking.
Still watching to see what goes here as they could turn this into a buying opportunity for earnings season.

Interesting

Of the 18000 jobs created last month 90% of them were McDonalds. An they calling this a recovery, SIMPLY AMAZING

1330.50

Trying to hold here- but if we break next supports are 1327 then 23.75.
1330.50 has held three time today so far but we been trending here

BINGO 1330

just hit 1330.50 lets see if we can stabilize there

Ugly before Open

Very ugly before the open- down almost 21 point on the Futures in 30 minutes. There seem to be some support at 1330 but we will see soon enough

Futures- Dive

Wow the payroll numbers are terrible futures down nearly 16 points on the announcement- They trying to put lipstick on this market but it is just not good- Yesterday I heard of 10 persons personally that just got laid of in one department of a major corporation. Really let's be real here we just not recovering

PAINT PLEASE

Wow we training in a 4 point range on the S&P since the open.

Interesting

So went away for a few days and I am back. Funny how you need a vacation after a vacation though I wouldn't call a 4 day trip a vacation but just time to recharge the batteries.
Early analysis here and I might be early but I am steeping into some shorts here. I am very cautious as for the last 3 hours it has been like watching paint dry in the markets and i am wondering if most of the big hitters are out on holidays for the summer already.
Nothing out there gives me any proof that this is bullish phase but IT OBVIOUSLY seem like a top is being formed and because it looks that way I am willing to take positions here for a short term retracement though I might be early.

Crazy moves

Did Obama bail out the credit card companies??????????? Those stocks are doing some crazy moves

Very Serious statements

Are Wall Street mega-banks so powerful and sprawling that they threaten our entire capitalist system? That's the claim being made by one top Federal Reserve official.

In a speech at New York University Monday (pdf), Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Fed, argued that the biggest and most complex banks are "fundamentally inconsistent with capitalism." His remarks came just two days after global banking regulators agreed to require big banks to hold onto extra capital in order to reduce the risk of bank failures like those that occurred during the financial crisis of 2008.

"So long as the concept of a [systemically important financial institution, or SIFI] exists, and there are institutions so powerful and considered so important that they require special support and different rules," declared Hoenig, who is known as a hawk on monetary policy, "the future of capitalism is at risk and our market economy is in peril."

That's because, he argued, the existence of banks that are understood to be "too big to fail" distorts the functioning of the free market. "For capitalism to work, businesses, including financial firms, must be allowed, or compelled, to compete freely and openly and must be held accountable for their failures," Hoenig said. "Only under these conditions do markets objectively allocate credit to those businesses that provide the highest value."

The financial reform legislation passed by Congress almost a year ago was intended to ensure that banks could never again grow so large that a collapse could threaten the global financial sector, forcing taxpayers to come to the rescue.

But things haven't worked out that way. "Now, with their bailout costs amounting to billions of taxpayer dollars, SIFIs are larger than ever," Hoenig said.

Hoenig proposed rules that would prevent banks that take deposits from making trades--a shift away from the financial supermarket concept that has proliferated since the 1990s.

The new capital requirements were agreed to by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), an international group of banking regulators meeting in Basel, Switzerland, this weekend. If the new rules are approved at the G20 summit in November, they'd force big banks to keep an additional 1-3.5 percent of extra capital on hand, so they'd be better able to weather big losses.

Another rule agreed to previously, with a similar goal, requires all banks to hold a minimum of 7 percent core capital at all times.

Not everyone thinks the new requirements, which even if approved won't go into effect until later in the decade, will make much difference. Slate's Bethany McLean argues that capital requirements wouldn't have prevented the 2008 crisis. But Felix Salmon of Reuters counters: "[W]hile the Sifi surcharge won't stop banks growing to the point at which they have to be bailed out in extremis, it might make such growth significantly less profitable than it was in the past."

What's clear, though, is that almost three years after a financial crisis that plunged the world economy into a deep hole and nearly brought down the global financial sector, there's little reason to believe the same thing couldn't happen again.

Volume

Though we are going some upside the volume is really low and that has me on the sideline.

Kass

Dangerous Market

Dangerous market squeezed the shorts then sold off- I think we should trade down in the overnight to that 163 level but really not sure- The markets are in whip lash mode here

1269

Still trading around 1269 so it makes it tricky to analyze what is going on. Presently we are trading at 1269.5.

1269

Solid break through these levels. Very tricky action here 1262 must hold into the close for the bulls to form a bottoming pattern

Weak Action

Weak action continues looking at 1269 for a pause in the downside

Range

I think we will be in a range here for a bit- Higher end is 1305 and lower end 1241, both area are HIGHLY playable

Bounce

Bouncing a bit but I don't buy it- look to see if we hold the 1265 level and then 1262 if not we will revisit the lows

Perfect continue

This is a great setup happening here- I am just going to be patient. We should test the lows from last week and that area I spoke about in past post.

Perfect!!

The last hour of trading cascaded today. As I posted earlier this would make a nice set up into the pre holidays period to set up a highly tradeable bounce. Overnight I am hoping we hold 1274 level so we dont get immediate selling but if we do this would confirm a retest of last week lows and possible that 1241 target for a buy.

We will see soon enough

Paint Drying

So here watching this market is virtually like watching paint dry and then I forgot it was FED announcement day which is always an extremely low volume day prior to the announcement.
So what do we have here in the market. Well I am going on record to say we will go higher after the next pullback. My projections are telling me we are in the throws of a intermediate low and I was HOPING for us to test 1241 on the downside but I forgot we had FED meeting this week and usually that has an upward bias.
What I am hoping for here is a sell the FOMC meeting news either today or tomorrow and test the lower boundaries of the last push as this would set up a super buy. Why a super buy because I strongly believe the Bernanke will say something about QE2 which will cause some initial anxiety but then analyzed as positive.

Point here I am gaining confidence that we will get a SIGNIFICANT bounce. If I am wrong when I do buy I will know quickly and get out for a small lose. In the mean time I will wait it out.

Expiration today

Also per usual nothing doing for me today with expiration. Most manipulated trading days!!!

1239-1241 just as a heads up will be my buy zone for the market or the first week of July

UGLY

Market is so trying to beat me in UGLINESS. Geez Nasdaq is ugly

Rally ??????????????

So all of yesterday's rally is gone. This is one bearish situation and that's why I am doing NOTHING. watch for a break of 1261 then minor support @ 1258. But really target seem to be 1241

Broken

Well they just broke that 1261 lows from last week- Not looking too promising here for longs- not much support till 1250 then 1241.50

1261.75

that was friday's lows - we just 4 points above. if we break there watch out below next really support is 1241.50

Six weeks

Six weeks down - does this make 7?? Who knows, I will be carefully looking at the volume this week. I will be out from thursday to next week wednesday so posts will be limited only if something breaks huge. Key here folks stay out of longs everything is bearish and now we are 100 S&P points lower from the Bin Laden rally. As always those huge events were a perfect turn around point in the market.

OK

This is the next number down that 'Should' be a decent bounce: 1242.

New Lows

One ugly market here- we have 3 hours left and we are 1 point above the lows of the day. Bear flag here seem like it will go lower

Opps

opps so 1269 didn't hold long. We sliced through it easily but the close will be the true confirmation there.

BINGO

Bingo - hit and now bouncing a bit - now how far do we get

Very Close

Moving very close to that 1269.50 .

We hit 1270.75 so far. They will try and defend that 12000 level for the DOW so expect a bounce

1269

1269 would put us sub 12000 on the DOW. We struggling here even with a gap down to get a footing.

1269

watch for support there

Overnight lows

We trying to attack overnight lows here

Futures- Rollover

Futures rollover makes today hard to call. I would still be looking for some movement higher based on the short term oversold conditions but you never know. For now I am looking at how low we can go for a long trade on the way back up, which I believe is the bigger plan

Hmmm

I really thought after hitting the 1275 level in the overnight session on the S&P they bulls would mount a reactionary rally but seem we are stuck in the mud here. Breadth is horrible here and that might be the underlining reason.

Banks

Banks look like they are shot in the head. Well everyone knows my sentiment on them. I jus don't think they will ever be profitable like they once was, NEVER. Trading is down 30% from last year and this has made the giant Goldman to be under severe pressure.

Not good

Not looking good for the bulls right here- We hit the 1294 and came within .5 points of 1296 but we just dived in the last hour. Look for next support maybe overnight @ 1279 if we continue to head down.

Turn Around TUESDAY

Well possible we get the usual turn around Tuesday today. We are dramatically oversold and volume on the downside yesterday was pathetic. Watch for us to hold yesterday's low if we venture there and then watch on the upside watch 1294 wish I think they will hit today to keep the bulls from totally running over.

1296 will be the closing number to watch on the upside to give the bulls some saving here.

1290

below the 1290 again. Still pathetic volume today so I am not all that confident to say we will push hard on the downside.

1284 should be the next stop if we break low of day

1290

Quick dip below now above but a 1290 close would be devastating for the bulls.

Ugly

Market can't get over the hump- careful if we hit below 1290

April lows

Market just tested the April's lows of 1290. Lets see what happens

1293

Bulls must close above this number today or the next target down is 1247!!!
Because I don't think the bulls will lay down for us to just dive 50 points I am going to have a upward bias today anywhere around the 1290 level for a buy.
Does it hold for more than just a reactionary bounce, who knows! I think 1247/50 is in the cards now BUT as I have been saying I would be buying heavily at those levels especially if those talking heads start saying it is the end of the world :) (remember they are always long)

BINGO

1295 HIT - POSTED HERE YESTERDAY . - Not looking so great for the recovering

Downside

1295 is the projection on any further decline

Charts

Looking at some charts over the last hour and I must say we could be in for a rough ride after today's action. It is entirely possible I could be wrong and we have seen this type of action before but this could be the beginning of a mild sell off. The main number to watch is last week's S&P lows with volume behind it.
If you are long I suggest going flat here to see what shakes.