Thursday, May 15, 2008

Market thoughts

Hmmm. looking over some charts and I have come the conclusion that we are definitely in some bubble territory in some sectors. Over the next few days I will be going through some strategies on how to play this.
I think we are close to a top here, the volume has been pathetic since last week monday and I am wondering if this is a effort for the big money to settle the market down before they start dumping stocks.
Russell 2000 looks very very toppy and I am tempted to short it but I will wait for confirmation. One thing keeps me on the defensive is the FED action but in reality the FED can't save us all the time. Earnings have been good but only in areas of agriculture and companies that have huge international exposure. Companies mostly home based are crushed and I think we will trend down as the american household gets a dose of reality that they have less and less equity in their homes.
Oil seem to be getting a rest here but I dont think it will crack. The reality of Oil is that the world can only produce 85 million barrels a day cost effectively and until OPEC can produce an estimate 105 barrels a day we are doomed to higher prices. I hear alot of people saying new technology will save us from oil but it wont, we have waited too long in this country to do anything about oil and now it is the torn in the economy.

I will be poking some shorts here soon but I will surely let my readers know what areas will rack up the most returns..

Bullish action

A said early this week the action is bullish, only problem is the volume. This could be one big bear trap or bull trap. Right now I dont wan to pick which way but bulls are definitely out since we are goign to close above that NASDAQ 2525 number and S&P 1525 number.

Always follow the rules

Today I didn't follow my rules and just for that I had a bad day. I tried to get back even but the volume was been so terrible this week that nothing is moving after the first 90 minutes.
I hope tomorrow with option expiration is better. Yes I know I said I dont like trading options expiration but I hate having a bad day without attack the trading plan the following day.
I already have some ideas for tomorrow and I plan on making it all back and some.