Sunday, May 30, 2010
SPY
Worst May in 70 years but I wont be quick to call it the end- Watch a retest of the 20EMA and see its reaction.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Three more banks shut down by regulators
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down three banks in Florida and one each in Nevada and California, bringing the number of U.S. bank failures this year to 78.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over the Florida banks, all owned by holding company Bank of Florida Corp. They are Bank of Florida-Southeast, based in Fort Lauderdale, with $595.3 million in assets; Bank of Florida-Southwest, based in Naples, with $640.9 million in assets; and Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay, based in Tampa, with $245.2 million in assets.
The FDIC also seized Las Vegas-based Sun West Bank, with $360.7 million in assets, and Granite Community Bank, located in Granite Bay, Calif., with $102.9 million in assets.
EverBank, based in Jacksonville, Fla., agreed to acquire the assets and deposits of the failed Florida banks. Los Angeles-based City National Bank is assuming all the assets and deposits of Sun West Bank, and Tri Counties Bank, based in Chico, Calif., is assuming those of Granite Community Bank.
In addition, the FDIC and EverBank agreed to share losses on the three Florida banks' loans and other assets. Losses will be shared on $437.3 million of Bank of Florida-Southeast's assets, $568.1 million of Bank of Florida-Southwest's assets and $210.8 million of Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay's assets. The federal agency and City National Bank agreed to share losses on $280 million of Sun West Bank's assets. The FDIC is sharing with Tri Counties Bank losses on $89.3 million of Granite Community Bank's assets.
The failures of the three Florida banks are expected to cost the deposit insurance fund a total of about $203 million. The failures of Sun West Bank are expected to cost around $96.7 million, while losses at Granite Community Bank are expected to cost $17.3 million.
The three Florida closures brought to 13 the number of bank failures this year in Florida, a state with one of the highest concentrations of bank collapses and where the meltdown in the real estate market brought an avalanche of soured mortgage loans. Fourteen banks in the state failed last year.
California is another state with a heavy concentration of bank failures, and Granite Community Bank was the sixth bank to fall in the state this year, following the shutdown of several big California banks in the last months of 2009. Seventeen banks failed in California last year.
Georgia and Illinois also are high on the list of states with concentrated bank failures.
With 78 closures nationwide so far this year, the pace of bank failures is more than double that of 2009, which was already a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 36 banks. The pace has accelerated as banks' losses mount on loans made for commercial property and development.
The number of bank failures is expected to peak this year and to be slightly higher than the 140 that fell in 2009. That was the highest annual tally since 1992, at the height of the savings and loan crisis. The 2009 failures cost the insurance fund more than $30 billion. Twenty-five banks failed in 2008, the year the financial crisis struck with force, and only three succumbed in 2007.
As losses have mounted on loans made for commercial property and development, the growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, and its deficit stood at $20.7 billion as of March 31.
The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumped to 775 in the first quarter from 702 three months earlier, even as the industry as a whole had its best quarter in two years.
A majority of institutions posted profit gains in the January-March quarter. But many small and mid-sized banks are likely to continue to suffer distress in the coming months and years, especially from soured loans for office buildings and development projects.
The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.
The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to replenish the insurance fund.
Depositors' money -- insured up to $250,000 per account -- is not at risk, with the FDIC backed by the government.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over the Florida banks, all owned by holding company Bank of Florida Corp. They are Bank of Florida-Southeast, based in Fort Lauderdale, with $595.3 million in assets; Bank of Florida-Southwest, based in Naples, with $640.9 million in assets; and Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay, based in Tampa, with $245.2 million in assets.
The FDIC also seized Las Vegas-based Sun West Bank, with $360.7 million in assets, and Granite Community Bank, located in Granite Bay, Calif., with $102.9 million in assets.
EverBank, based in Jacksonville, Fla., agreed to acquire the assets and deposits of the failed Florida banks. Los Angeles-based City National Bank is assuming all the assets and deposits of Sun West Bank, and Tri Counties Bank, based in Chico, Calif., is assuming those of Granite Community Bank.
In addition, the FDIC and EverBank agreed to share losses on the three Florida banks' loans and other assets. Losses will be shared on $437.3 million of Bank of Florida-Southeast's assets, $568.1 million of Bank of Florida-Southwest's assets and $210.8 million of Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay's assets. The federal agency and City National Bank agreed to share losses on $280 million of Sun West Bank's assets. The FDIC is sharing with Tri Counties Bank losses on $89.3 million of Granite Community Bank's assets.
The failures of the three Florida banks are expected to cost the deposit insurance fund a total of about $203 million. The failures of Sun West Bank are expected to cost around $96.7 million, while losses at Granite Community Bank are expected to cost $17.3 million.
The three Florida closures brought to 13 the number of bank failures this year in Florida, a state with one of the highest concentrations of bank collapses and where the meltdown in the real estate market brought an avalanche of soured mortgage loans. Fourteen banks in the state failed last year.
California is another state with a heavy concentration of bank failures, and Granite Community Bank was the sixth bank to fall in the state this year, following the shutdown of several big California banks in the last months of 2009. Seventeen banks failed in California last year.
Georgia and Illinois also are high on the list of states with concentrated bank failures.
With 78 closures nationwide so far this year, the pace of bank failures is more than double that of 2009, which was already a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 36 banks. The pace has accelerated as banks' losses mount on loans made for commercial property and development.
The number of bank failures is expected to peak this year and to be slightly higher than the 140 that fell in 2009. That was the highest annual tally since 1992, at the height of the savings and loan crisis. The 2009 failures cost the insurance fund more than $30 billion. Twenty-five banks failed in 2008, the year the financial crisis struck with force, and only three succumbed in 2007.
As losses have mounted on loans made for commercial property and development, the growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, and its deficit stood at $20.7 billion as of March 31.
The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumped to 775 in the first quarter from 702 three months earlier, even as the industry as a whole had its best quarter in two years.
A majority of institutions posted profit gains in the January-March quarter. But many small and mid-sized banks are likely to continue to suffer distress in the coming months and years, especially from soured loans for office buildings and development projects.
The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.
The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to replenish the insurance fund.
Depositors' money -- insured up to $250,000 per account -- is not at risk, with the FDIC backed by the government.
Friday, May 28, 2010
May Closes at Almost 8% Loss, Worst for the Month Since 1962
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks closed out their worst month in more than a year by sliding again on more unsettling news about Europe.
The Dow Jones industrials were down by about 50 points Friday after Spain suffered the second downgrade of its credit rating in a month. The rating agency's action was another reminder to traders of the long-term economic problems still facing several European countries, and ultimately, the rest of the continent and the global economy as well.
Fitch cut Spain's rating by one notch, saying the country's plan to cut its budget will likely slow economic growth. Mounting debt forced Spain, among other European countries, to recently impose austerity measures to try and contain its rising deficit.
The rating agency also cited the recent bailout of a regional bank by Spain's central bank as a sign that the country's economic recovery will lag. Earlier this month, Standard & Poor's lowered its rating of Spain's debt. Greece and Portugal have also suffered downgrades.
Stocks were down before the news about Spain broke in early afternoon. They fluctuated as the day wore on.
"People are worried about Europe and we're seeing a knee-jerk reaction, particularly ahead of a long weekend," said Joe Heider, a principal at Rehmann in Cleveland. He said traders won't want to be holding some investments since U.S. markets are closed Monday, while European ones are open.
Heider noted that the new rating, just one short of Fitch's highest, is still quite good. It was more the timing of the cut before the holiday weekend than the actual downgrade itself that surprised investors, he said.
The last trading day of May fit the pattern of the rest of the month. May was difficult for the market as persistent and intensifying worries about Europe's debt problems sent the Dow down 7 percent. The average was heading toward its worst monthly performance since February 2009, the month before stocks began their recovery from 12-year lows. The Dow also looked to have its biggest May drop since 1962.
Throughout May, stocks have been tracking the euro, the currency shared by 16 European nations and that has become a gauge of confidence for Europe's economy. The euro hit a four-year low and was down as much as 9 percent during the month. The euro fell modestly again Friday, dropping to $1.2276.
In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 52.30, or 0.5 percent, to 10,206.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.42, or 0.5 percent, to 1,097.64, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 6.20, or 0.3 percent, to 2,271.48.
About three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 955.2 million shares.
The problems in Europe have led investors to ignore continuing signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. The fear in the market is that forced cutbacks in government spending in Europe in the coming months will curb the continent's economic growth, and in turn, the U.S. recovery.
Next week will bring a series of economic reports that will test the market, including the Labor Department's May employment report and readings on manufacturing, consumer spending and housing.
If there are any signs that the U.S. economy is being affected by news of Europe's problems -- for example, if consumers seemed to be spending less -- investors are likely to start selling again. And if the jobs report is disappointing, the market is also likely to suffer.
A report Friday showed that the U.S. recovery might be slowing a bit. The Commerce Department said consumer spending was flat in April, compared with the previous month. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast spending would rise 0.3 percent. It was the first time in seven months that spending had not risen in a month, indicating that consumers are still somewhat tentative about the health of the economy.
Personal income rose 0.4 percent, slightly worse than the 0.5 percent growth forecast by economists.
"This month was damaging to the psychology of investors, so consumption may taper in the near term," said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Va.
Cox said consumers are more tentative after last year's market drop and recession, so they are more likely to cut back quickly at any signs of economic weakness. Investors, particularly retail investors, are also more likely to sell stocks at the first sign of a pullback, he said.
"We're not far enough removed from the 2009 drop," Cox said. "People are saying 'not again.'"
A measure of consumer confidence was revised slightly higher. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.6 from a preliminary May reading of 73.3. Still the index is at nearly the same level it was three months ago.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activity in the Midwest, fell to 59.7 in May from 63.8 last month. Economists had forecast the index would fall to 62.
With investors pulling out of stocks, bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.29 percent from 3.36 percent late Thursday.
The Russell 200 index of smaller companies fell 3.94, or 0.6 percent, to 666.57.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX index was down less than 0.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.3 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.3 percent.
The Dow Jones industrials were down by about 50 points Friday after Spain suffered the second downgrade of its credit rating in a month. The rating agency's action was another reminder to traders of the long-term economic problems still facing several European countries, and ultimately, the rest of the continent and the global economy as well.
Fitch cut Spain's rating by one notch, saying the country's plan to cut its budget will likely slow economic growth. Mounting debt forced Spain, among other European countries, to recently impose austerity measures to try and contain its rising deficit.
The rating agency also cited the recent bailout of a regional bank by Spain's central bank as a sign that the country's economic recovery will lag. Earlier this month, Standard & Poor's lowered its rating of Spain's debt. Greece and Portugal have also suffered downgrades.
Stocks were down before the news about Spain broke in early afternoon. They fluctuated as the day wore on.
"People are worried about Europe and we're seeing a knee-jerk reaction, particularly ahead of a long weekend," said Joe Heider, a principal at Rehmann in Cleveland. He said traders won't want to be holding some investments since U.S. markets are closed Monday, while European ones are open.
Heider noted that the new rating, just one short of Fitch's highest, is still quite good. It was more the timing of the cut before the holiday weekend than the actual downgrade itself that surprised investors, he said.
The last trading day of May fit the pattern of the rest of the month. May was difficult for the market as persistent and intensifying worries about Europe's debt problems sent the Dow down 7 percent. The average was heading toward its worst monthly performance since February 2009, the month before stocks began their recovery from 12-year lows. The Dow also looked to have its biggest May drop since 1962.
Throughout May, stocks have been tracking the euro, the currency shared by 16 European nations and that has become a gauge of confidence for Europe's economy. The euro hit a four-year low and was down as much as 9 percent during the month. The euro fell modestly again Friday, dropping to $1.2276.
In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 52.30, or 0.5 percent, to 10,206.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.42, or 0.5 percent, to 1,097.64, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 6.20, or 0.3 percent, to 2,271.48.
About three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 955.2 million shares.
The problems in Europe have led investors to ignore continuing signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. The fear in the market is that forced cutbacks in government spending in Europe in the coming months will curb the continent's economic growth, and in turn, the U.S. recovery.
Next week will bring a series of economic reports that will test the market, including the Labor Department's May employment report and readings on manufacturing, consumer spending and housing.
If there are any signs that the U.S. economy is being affected by news of Europe's problems -- for example, if consumers seemed to be spending less -- investors are likely to start selling again. And if the jobs report is disappointing, the market is also likely to suffer.
A report Friday showed that the U.S. recovery might be slowing a bit. The Commerce Department said consumer spending was flat in April, compared with the previous month. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast spending would rise 0.3 percent. It was the first time in seven months that spending had not risen in a month, indicating that consumers are still somewhat tentative about the health of the economy.
Personal income rose 0.4 percent, slightly worse than the 0.5 percent growth forecast by economists.
"This month was damaging to the psychology of investors, so consumption may taper in the near term," said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Va.
Cox said consumers are more tentative after last year's market drop and recession, so they are more likely to cut back quickly at any signs of economic weakness. Investors, particularly retail investors, are also more likely to sell stocks at the first sign of a pullback, he said.
"We're not far enough removed from the 2009 drop," Cox said. "People are saying 'not again.'"
A measure of consumer confidence was revised slightly higher. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.6 from a preliminary May reading of 73.3. Still the index is at nearly the same level it was three months ago.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activity in the Midwest, fell to 59.7 in May from 63.8 last month. Economists had forecast the index would fall to 62.
With investors pulling out of stocks, bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.29 percent from 3.36 percent late Thursday.
The Russell 200 index of smaller companies fell 3.94, or 0.6 percent, to 666.57.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX index was down less than 0.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.3 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.3 percent.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
1054
1054 now becomes the important level for the bulls. They must defend that level or we will be heading to 1000 in a Jiffy
Sold off
Well very interesting that we sold off in the later part of the day. To be honest I really was calculating a bounce into this week but I guess the bounce was yesterday retreat off the huge gap down. We will see how the week progress.
Small Gap
Opening with a small gap up. We got a nice turn around tuesday now lets see what will happen today. I am more on the sideline more than anything else
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
BAC breaks $15
BAC breaking lower out of $15 is significant of the banks weakness. MS is also making a 52 week lows, very significant here.
Heavy Gap down
Huge gap down. DOW is off 280 in the first 10 minutes. I am looking at the first hour bracket to see what they want to do.
Oil is also getting killed
Oil is also getting killed
Overnight
Overnight futures seem to be crashing. Still three hours before the open but it seem we will be below DOW10K at the open and S&P looking for some new lows out of the flash crash. We will see what develops
Monday, May 24, 2010
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Interesting article about America I just read
Recent decades have witnessed an amazing shrinkage of the American manufacturing sector, from #1 in the world to virtual non-existence. Companies, taking advantage of cheaper labor costs abroad, have either outsourced some portion of the workforce or relocated their entire operations offshore. Remember the "great sucking sound" that Ross Perot claimed he could hear?
Well, today, if you listen, there's a different, almost opposite sound in the air. Instead of American jobs going to lower-paid foreign workers, foreign workers are leaving America for better jobs. It's happening, increasingly, among professionals who expatriated to the U.S. in search of the good life and have begun seeing better prospects back in their countries of origin.
In a worldwide survey by HSBC Bank International, conducted among 3,100 expats in the first quarter of 2009, more than 1 in 5 (22%) working and living in the U.S. said they were considering pulling up stakes and returning home. That's 50% higher than the overall average of expats everywhere.
This may seem strange to residents of the traditional land of opportunity. We're much more accustomed to foreign graduates of American colleges doing whatever it takes to get that green card. But it's in keeping with numbers noted by other observers.
And it's all about the career prospects.
Those studying the trend say that foreign professionals are becoming frustrated with their lack of advancement in the U.S., citing widespread salary and promotion freezes, not to mention layoffs. As our unemployment rate has ballooned to an "official" 10% and everyone is downsizing, people with advanced degrees have not been spared. Competition for the best jobs is more intense than ever, and switching employers no longer results in an automatic step up the ladder.
In addition, employees holding H-1B skilled worker visas often get the short end of the stick from employers. No one with a hard-to-obtain H-1B is going to complain about unfair treatment - or so the thinking goes - because termination most often results in a quick plane ride back home.
But that may not be much of a sword to hold over someone's head as home begins to look more and more attractive. People who came here from India and China, even as recently as a decade ago, are well aware of the explosion in opportunity that's transpired way back east. As a consequence of all this, Harvard researcher Vivek Wadhwa predicts, more than 100,000 expats will repatriate to India in the next five years. He cites reports from human-resource directors in India and China, showing a recent tenfold increase in the number of résumés from the U.S.
And why shouldn't they be thinking of packing it in? Among the 26 countries included in the HSBC study, America ranked a dismal 17th overall, based on four criteria: annual income, disposable income, ability to save, and ownership of luxury items.
Heading the list of negatives here is that wages have not kept pace with the domestic cost of living (a discrepancy American citizens also are painfully aware of). Just 39% of expats report being able to save more money since moving to the U.S.
That's despite concerted cost-cutting, too. When asked if the credit crunch had changed their attitude toward spending, 74% of those living here answered yes. Two-thirds say they have both cut down on luxuries and been trying to save on day-to-day costs.
Okay, but what if the shoe is on the other foot? What if you're a displaced professional worker, should you consider looking for a job out of country? Maybe. Though it will certainly be more difficult for an American to land a position abroad than for a repatriated citizen, it isn't impossible.
The HSBC study wasn't just about the U.S. Expatriates were working in all 26 countries surveyed, and many, of whatever nationality, are doing much better than those here.
Consider this: The highest proportion of expats earning more than the equivalent of US$250,000 per year (30%) is to be found in Russia. Of all places. Hard to imagine but true. Russia is followed in this category by some locales you might expect to see on the list, Hong Kong (27%), Japan (26%), and Switzerland (25%). But tied for fourth is another surprise, India.
Highest percentages of those who say they're saving more than they could at home were working in Saudi Arabia (90%), Russia (97%), and Qatar (98%).
Given those salary and savings-rate data, it's no surprise that the number one overall ranking for expats went to Russia. All the rest of the top eleven were located in the Middle and Far East. In order: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, the UAE, Singapore, Japan, Bahrain, India, Malaysia, and China.
Where do you not want to go? Mostly, just avoid the EU. The bottom five: Belgium, Germany, Australia, Spain, and France.
Look at the top ten and bottom five again. This topsy-turvy world is not the one we're used to, not the one most Americans still think it is. Opportunity is where you find it, and world citizens willing to cross borders for work are, with good reason, setting sail for nations other than the U.S.
Well, today, if you listen, there's a different, almost opposite sound in the air. Instead of American jobs going to lower-paid foreign workers, foreign workers are leaving America for better jobs. It's happening, increasingly, among professionals who expatriated to the U.S. in search of the good life and have begun seeing better prospects back in their countries of origin.
In a worldwide survey by HSBC Bank International, conducted among 3,100 expats in the first quarter of 2009, more than 1 in 5 (22%) working and living in the U.S. said they were considering pulling up stakes and returning home. That's 50% higher than the overall average of expats everywhere.
This may seem strange to residents of the traditional land of opportunity. We're much more accustomed to foreign graduates of American colleges doing whatever it takes to get that green card. But it's in keeping with numbers noted by other observers.
And it's all about the career prospects.
Those studying the trend say that foreign professionals are becoming frustrated with their lack of advancement in the U.S., citing widespread salary and promotion freezes, not to mention layoffs. As our unemployment rate has ballooned to an "official" 10% and everyone is downsizing, people with advanced degrees have not been spared. Competition for the best jobs is more intense than ever, and switching employers no longer results in an automatic step up the ladder.
In addition, employees holding H-1B skilled worker visas often get the short end of the stick from employers. No one with a hard-to-obtain H-1B is going to complain about unfair treatment - or so the thinking goes - because termination most often results in a quick plane ride back home.
But that may not be much of a sword to hold over someone's head as home begins to look more and more attractive. People who came here from India and China, even as recently as a decade ago, are well aware of the explosion in opportunity that's transpired way back east. As a consequence of all this, Harvard researcher Vivek Wadhwa predicts, more than 100,000 expats will repatriate to India in the next five years. He cites reports from human-resource directors in India and China, showing a recent tenfold increase in the number of résumés from the U.S.
And why shouldn't they be thinking of packing it in? Among the 26 countries included in the HSBC study, America ranked a dismal 17th overall, based on four criteria: annual income, disposable income, ability to save, and ownership of luxury items.
Heading the list of negatives here is that wages have not kept pace with the domestic cost of living (a discrepancy American citizens also are painfully aware of). Just 39% of expats report being able to save more money since moving to the U.S.
That's despite concerted cost-cutting, too. When asked if the credit crunch had changed their attitude toward spending, 74% of those living here answered yes. Two-thirds say they have both cut down on luxuries and been trying to save on day-to-day costs.
Okay, but what if the shoe is on the other foot? What if you're a displaced professional worker, should you consider looking for a job out of country? Maybe. Though it will certainly be more difficult for an American to land a position abroad than for a repatriated citizen, it isn't impossible.
The HSBC study wasn't just about the U.S. Expatriates were working in all 26 countries surveyed, and many, of whatever nationality, are doing much better than those here.
Consider this: The highest proportion of expats earning more than the equivalent of US$250,000 per year (30%) is to be found in Russia. Of all places. Hard to imagine but true. Russia is followed in this category by some locales you might expect to see on the list, Hong Kong (27%), Japan (26%), and Switzerland (25%). But tied for fourth is another surprise, India.
Highest percentages of those who say they're saving more than they could at home were working in Saudi Arabia (90%), Russia (97%), and Qatar (98%).
Given those salary and savings-rate data, it's no surprise that the number one overall ranking for expats went to Russia. All the rest of the top eleven were located in the Middle and Far East. In order: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, the UAE, Singapore, Japan, Bahrain, India, Malaysia, and China.
Where do you not want to go? Mostly, just avoid the EU. The bottom five: Belgium, Germany, Australia, Spain, and France.
Look at the top ten and bottom five again. This topsy-turvy world is not the one we're used to, not the one most Americans still think it is. Opportunity is where you find it, and world citizens willing to cross borders for work are, with good reason, setting sail for nations other than the U.S.
Oil
I think we should get a bounce in the commodity Oil this week. Charts looks like a inverter head and shoulder being formed
Friday, May 21, 2010
BINGO!!!
We have hit the May 6 lows in the overnight, pre market session. Have no thoughts about today since it is options expiration.
DOW should open below 10k
DOW should open below 10k
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Expectation
I fully expect us to test the May 6th lows on the indexes. Therefore we should hit 9880 I believe was the lows for the DOW and 1066 for the S&P. I will be back Monday
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!
WOW they close right @ 1072 on the S&P. I pointed out that number @ 1pm.
Man oh man what a market. Said it this morning that today would have been an interesting day.
Have a great weekend-
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man oh man what a market. Said it this morning that today would have been an interesting day.
Have a great weekend-
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!
1072
Well I am about to leave here. I am going out of town tomorrow till saturday so I will do some charts if I see anything interesting. Tomorrow don't expect much as it is option expiration and with this down day so far I don't think anyone would be doing much.
Watch for a bounce mid next week.
Watch for a bounce mid next week.
Yep
Yep said it going to be a very interesting day today. DOW DOWN 319 before the first hour but what is more important we comping to that important 1074 area on the S&P on the upside. I guess the next important support will again be 1054 area that was massive resistance on the upside.
My work is showing a time low next week but it could be off a couple of days but as of now I am looking for us lower into next week
My work is showing a time low next week but it could be off a couple of days but as of now I am looking for us lower into next week
Going to be interested
Going to be very interesting market here today. Euro zone is in a mess and nothing will stop it from finding its "TRUE" level. We are trading below S&P 1096 and are at the next support level of 1083 before the open. I have no call on this open as we are at S2 level. Only thing to watch is how much we bounce.
This will be a first open for the S&P below its 200MA which is significant in itself but most importantly is the Germans move to stop shorting I think will be the first gun in a move of the big investors to stay out of the markets leave demand levels low and therefore lower prices.
I do hope we bounce because it would be an excellent chance to short. AAPL and GOOG should get hit hard on the next round of selling as they are inflated. AAPL will definitely see below $200 on the next round of selling and GOOG low $400 or below but we will see.
Marketjedi
This will be a first open for the S&P below its 200MA which is significant in itself but most importantly is the Germans move to stop shorting I think will be the first gun in a move of the big investors to stay out of the markets leave demand levels low and therefore lower prices.
I do hope we bounce because it would be an excellent chance to short. AAPL and GOOG should get hit hard on the next round of selling as they are inflated. AAPL will definitely see below $200 on the next round of selling and GOOG low $400 or below but we will see.
Marketjedi
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Gapping Down
Seem like the momentum of the bulls have been waning. I will be watching closely today to see if we fill this gap or don't. IF we dont close the gap today it would be a ominous sign that the balance has changed.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Manipulation
Again pure manipulation in the markets- Today they will announce new trading rules on stocks, i really wonder what it will be? I think they will say no selling of stock you only can buy :):), just crazy, folks the market is not pure capitalism it is all smoke screen and I don't know what.
Monday, May 17, 2010
1123
Wow that was quick- notice how as we broke through we got a bit of selling. I think it is just a matter of time 1123 becomes resistance and I think we swing lower
1123
The support number is here again. The bulls MUST defend this number into the close of it would mean much more weakness in days to come.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Commodity Chart
Natural gas is one profitable market when it gets going- next target high on this breakout if it does is $8.50
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Explanation
Well after nearly a week we still haven't heard the true reason of last week volatile day. I found this and it is the closest thing to a reasonable explanation of last week action but remember it is all speculation for the masses. The real people who what happened, think about it if someone had big thumbs as they claimed we would know which master account set that off!!! that would not be speculation because every single trade is marked and can be traced immediately. The real reason they dont want to release the inform is because some deep pockets got killed and it shows how volatile the market is with light trading.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/whoa!-did-nassim-taleb-cause-thursday%27s-market-crash-482998.html?tickers=dia,spy,xlf,^gspc,^dji,bcs&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/whoa!-did-nassim-taleb-cause-thursday%27s-market-crash-482998.html?tickers=dia,spy,xlf,^gspc,^dji,bcs&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Monday, May 10, 2010
Unbelievable
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s traders made money every single day of the first quarter, a feat the firm has never accomplished before.
Daily trading net revenue was $25 million or higher in all of the first quarter’s 63 trading days, New York-based Goldman Sachs reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The firm reaped more than $100 million on 35 of the days, or more than half the time.
Goldman Sachs, which is facing a fraud lawsuit from the SEC related to the sale of a mortgage-linked security in 2007, generated $9.74 billion in trading revenue in the first quarter, exceeding all of its Wall Street competitors. Trading accounted for 76 percent of first-quarter revenue. The lack of trading losses could add to the perception that Goldman Sachs has an unfair advantage in the markets, said one shareholder.
“It will reinforce the heads we win, tails you lose mentality that people think actually exists and promotes the concept of an unfair advantage,” said Douglas Ciocca, a managing director at Renaissance Financial Corp. in Leawood, Kansas, which oversees about $2 billion in assets including Goldman Sachs shares. “It’s too politically charged not to, how is that possible that they only make money?”
Record Earnings
The bank, which reported record earnings last year, is contesting the SEC’s lawsuit and the firm’s executives were interrogated at a Senate subcommittee hearing last month. Goldman Sachs, which maintains that it did nothing wrong, is also being investigated by federal prosecutors, said people familiar with the matter.
“This is the first time we have reported zero trading loss days in a quarter,” Samuel Robinson, a Goldman Sachs spokesman, said in an e-mail. “We believe it shows the strength of our customer franchise and risk management.”
Ciocca echoed that view, saying he thinks the performance proves the strength of the firm’s risk-management models and its ability to make money even in markets with low volatility.
“The statistical probability of going through what we did would never favor them making money every day,” Ciocca said. “It actually speaks very well of their capability to manage through different types of markets.”
Reaching Out
Ciocca said he’s had first-hand experience of Goldman Sachs’s efforts to reach out to clients in the wake of the SEC lawsuit to answer questions about the matter. He said representatives from Goldman Sachs’s asset-management division contacted his firm during the last week of April even though they hadn’t been in touch for a year before that.
“It was tactical, it was appropriate, it wasn’t patronizing, it was very sincere,” Ciocca said.
In its SEC filing today, Goldman Sachs said it is expecting further litigation related to sales of collateralized debt obligations.
“We anticipate that additional putative shareholder derivative actions and other litigation may be filed, and regulatory and other investigations and actions commenced against us with respect to offering of CDOs,” the bank said.
The company also laid out in the filing a worst-case scenario of what could happen if the firm doesn’t resolve the SEC case and can’t obtain appropriate waivers from relevant regulators.
Imposing Restrictions
The results could include “an inability to act as a registered broker-dealer or provide certain advisory and other services to U.S. registered mutual funds,” the filing said. “In addition, regulators could impose restrictions on the activities of our banking, commodities, investment advisory or other regulated businesses.”
Goldman Sachs’s first-quarter earnings were the second- highest in the company’s history.
Daily trading net revenue was $25 million or higher in all of the first quarter’s 63 trading days, New York-based Goldman Sachs reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The firm reaped more than $100 million on 35 of the days, or more than half the time.
Goldman Sachs, which is facing a fraud lawsuit from the SEC related to the sale of a mortgage-linked security in 2007, generated $9.74 billion in trading revenue in the first quarter, exceeding all of its Wall Street competitors. Trading accounted for 76 percent of first-quarter revenue. The lack of trading losses could add to the perception that Goldman Sachs has an unfair advantage in the markets, said one shareholder.
“It will reinforce the heads we win, tails you lose mentality that people think actually exists and promotes the concept of an unfair advantage,” said Douglas Ciocca, a managing director at Renaissance Financial Corp. in Leawood, Kansas, which oversees about $2 billion in assets including Goldman Sachs shares. “It’s too politically charged not to, how is that possible that they only make money?”
Record Earnings
The bank, which reported record earnings last year, is contesting the SEC’s lawsuit and the firm’s executives were interrogated at a Senate subcommittee hearing last month. Goldman Sachs, which maintains that it did nothing wrong, is also being investigated by federal prosecutors, said people familiar with the matter.
“This is the first time we have reported zero trading loss days in a quarter,” Samuel Robinson, a Goldman Sachs spokesman, said in an e-mail. “We believe it shows the strength of our customer franchise and risk management.”
Ciocca echoed that view, saying he thinks the performance proves the strength of the firm’s risk-management models and its ability to make money even in markets with low volatility.
“The statistical probability of going through what we did would never favor them making money every day,” Ciocca said. “It actually speaks very well of their capability to manage through different types of markets.”
Reaching Out
Ciocca said he’s had first-hand experience of Goldman Sachs’s efforts to reach out to clients in the wake of the SEC lawsuit to answer questions about the matter. He said representatives from Goldman Sachs’s asset-management division contacted his firm during the last week of April even though they hadn’t been in touch for a year before that.
“It was tactical, it was appropriate, it wasn’t patronizing, it was very sincere,” Ciocca said.
In its SEC filing today, Goldman Sachs said it is expecting further litigation related to sales of collateralized debt obligations.
“We anticipate that additional putative shareholder derivative actions and other litigation may be filed, and regulatory and other investigations and actions commenced against us with respect to offering of CDOs,” the bank said.
The company also laid out in the filing a worst-case scenario of what could happen if the firm doesn’t resolve the SEC case and can’t obtain appropriate waivers from relevant regulators.
Imposing Restrictions
The results could include “an inability to act as a registered broker-dealer or provide certain advisory and other services to U.S. registered mutual funds,” the filing said. “In addition, regulators could impose restrictions on the activities of our banking, commodities, investment advisory or other regulated businesses.”
Goldman Sachs’s first-quarter earnings were the second- highest in the company’s history.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
More Bank failures
Regulators on Friday shut down banks in Florida, Minnesota, Arizona and California, bringing the number of U.S. bank failures to 68 this year.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over The Bank of Bonifay, based in Bonifay, Fla., which had $242.9 million in assets and $230.2 million in deposits; and Access Bank, in Champlin, Minn., with $32 million in assets and $32 million in deposits.
The agency also seized Towne Bank of Arizona in Mesa, Ariz., with $120.2 million in assets and $113.2 million in deposits; and 1st Pacific Bank of California in San Diego, with $335.8 million in assets and $291.2 million in deposits.
First Federal Bank of Florida in Lake City, Fla. agreed to acquire Bonifay's deposits and about $78.1 million of its assets. The FDIC will keep the remainder for eventual sale.
PrinsBank of Prinsburg, Minn. will assume Access' deposits and assets.
Commerce Bank of Arizona, based in Tucson, Ariz., agreed to assume all of the deposits and assets of Towne Bank, and City National Bank of Los Angeles will assume all of 1st Pacific Bank's deposits and assets.
The failure of The Bank of Bonifay is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund $78.7 million; that of Access Bank, $5.5 million; that of Towne Bank, $41.8 million; and that of 1st Pacific Bank, $87.7 million.
With the 68 closures so far this year, the pace of bank failures this year is double that of 2009. By May 1 last year, U.S. regulators had shut down 32 banks.
There were 140 bank failures in the U.S. last year, the highest annual tally since 1992, at the height of the savings and loan crisis. They cost the insurance fund more than $30 billion. Twenty-five banks failed in 2008 and only three succumbed in 2007.
The number of bank failures likely will peak this year and will be slightly higher than in 2009, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said recently.
As losses have mounted on loans made for commercial property and development, the growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, hitting a $20.9 billion deficit as of Dec. 31.
The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumped to 702 in the fourth quarter from 552 three months earlier, even as the industry squeezed out a small profit. Still, nearly one in every three banks reported a net loss for the latest quarter.
The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.
The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to replenish the insurance fund.
Depositors' money -- insured up to $250,000 per account -- is not at risk, with the FDIC backed by the government. Apart from the fund, the FDIC has about $66 billion in cash and securities available in reserve to cover losses at failed banks.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over The Bank of Bonifay, based in Bonifay, Fla., which had $242.9 million in assets and $230.2 million in deposits; and Access Bank, in Champlin, Minn., with $32 million in assets and $32 million in deposits.
The agency also seized Towne Bank of Arizona in Mesa, Ariz., with $120.2 million in assets and $113.2 million in deposits; and 1st Pacific Bank of California in San Diego, with $335.8 million in assets and $291.2 million in deposits.
First Federal Bank of Florida in Lake City, Fla. agreed to acquire Bonifay's deposits and about $78.1 million of its assets. The FDIC will keep the remainder for eventual sale.
PrinsBank of Prinsburg, Minn. will assume Access' deposits and assets.
Commerce Bank of Arizona, based in Tucson, Ariz., agreed to assume all of the deposits and assets of Towne Bank, and City National Bank of Los Angeles will assume all of 1st Pacific Bank's deposits and assets.
The failure of The Bank of Bonifay is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund $78.7 million; that of Access Bank, $5.5 million; that of Towne Bank, $41.8 million; and that of 1st Pacific Bank, $87.7 million.
With the 68 closures so far this year, the pace of bank failures this year is double that of 2009. By May 1 last year, U.S. regulators had shut down 32 banks.
There were 140 bank failures in the U.S. last year, the highest annual tally since 1992, at the height of the savings and loan crisis. They cost the insurance fund more than $30 billion. Twenty-five banks failed in 2008 and only three succumbed in 2007.
The number of bank failures likely will peak this year and will be slightly higher than in 2009, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said recently.
As losses have mounted on loans made for commercial property and development, the growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, hitting a $20.9 billion deficit as of Dec. 31.
The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumped to 702 in the fourth quarter from 552 three months earlier, even as the industry squeezed out a small profit. Still, nearly one in every three banks reported a net loss for the latest quarter.
The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.
The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to replenish the insurance fund.
Depositors' money -- insured up to $250,000 per account -- is not at risk, with the FDIC backed by the government. Apart from the fund, the FDIC has about $66 billion in cash and securities available in reserve to cover losses at failed banks.
Market Drama
When the dust finally settles, Thursday May 6th will be seen as a day of booms and busts. If you were short, and were able to get out when we tanked hard, you made a tidy sum of money, and if you were long, you either got smacked or you rode out the yo-yo and pared the losses. More than likely, you fell somewhere in between.
I got the phone calls up till midnight last night about what happened. I actually left my computer about 20 minutes before the big sell off to do some volunteering, so I was not here to see what happened but never the less I heard a ton of stories. So, here is a brief list of what I have heard up till lunch time today. I have no confirmation as to these stories being real or just rumors. Some sound easily believable, others, not. Make your own judgement.
Remember, these are all RUMORS and many of them conflict:
The Euro will be gone by July 4th
The Euro will be gone by next week
The Euro will be gone by the end of the year
The Euro will survive this and not go anywhere
Greece is a drop in the bucket, there is much more to come
This will end with Greece. After they figure out how to fix them, they will use that formula on other countries in trouble
The USA is next to fall
The USA will never go through that
An "off the floor" futures trader at the CBOT made $4,000,000 and change during that black hole move
Hedge funds blew up "left and right"
An equities trader lost 78% of his portfolio, capitulating 30 seconds before the lows
A big commodity fund is on the ropes and ready to shut down
It will be hard for the retail investor to ever trust the market again
This was the buying opportunity of the year
We crashed
It's Goldman's fault!
Al I know is it appears that volatility is back for now, but remember, it's a double edged sword. Make sure your trading plan is tuned up and you follow your risk management matrix or else the market will make short work of you, no pun intended.
I got the phone calls up till midnight last night about what happened. I actually left my computer about 20 minutes before the big sell off to do some volunteering, so I was not here to see what happened but never the less I heard a ton of stories. So, here is a brief list of what I have heard up till lunch time today. I have no confirmation as to these stories being real or just rumors. Some sound easily believable, others, not. Make your own judgement.
Remember, these are all RUMORS and many of them conflict:
The Euro will be gone by July 4th
The Euro will be gone by next week
The Euro will be gone by the end of the year
The Euro will survive this and not go anywhere
Greece is a drop in the bucket, there is much more to come
This will end with Greece. After they figure out how to fix them, they will use that formula on other countries in trouble
The USA is next to fall
The USA will never go through that
An "off the floor" futures trader at the CBOT made $4,000,000 and change during that black hole move
Hedge funds blew up "left and right"
An equities trader lost 78% of his portfolio, capitulating 30 seconds before the lows
A big commodity fund is on the ropes and ready to shut down
It will be hard for the retail investor to ever trust the market again
This was the buying opportunity of the year
We crashed
It's Goldman's fault!
Al I know is it appears that volatility is back for now, but remember, it's a double edged sword. Make sure your trading plan is tuned up and you follow your risk management matrix or else the market will make short work of you, no pun intended.
Jim Rogers views
The suspected erroneous trades that exacerbated the Wall Street's fall on Thursday should be investigated and solutions must be found if the New York Stock Exchange is to maintain its reputation, investor Jim Rogers told CNBC late Thursday.
The Dow ended Thursday's session down 3.2 percent, at 10,520.32, after being down as much as 998.50 points earlier, the index's biggest intraday drop on record.
According to regulatory officials, "a huge, anomalous, unexplained surge in selling" happened at about 2:45 p.m. New York time, setting off trading based on computer algorithms, thus amplifying the fall.
"Somebody should hang this New York Stock Exchange," Rogers said. "They claim to be the center of the world's capitalism, of the world's financial markets, you would think that in 2010 they could sort out simple things like electronics."
The New York Stock Exchange is investigating the cause of the possible erroneous trades.
But any tech problems alone are not to blame for the whole of the collapse as a decline was overdue, he added.
"It's time for a consolidation, there's always a reason for consolidation when it comes, the market went up for 13 months in a row, now we're going to, you know, correct for a while," Rogers told CNBC. "In my view the correction should have started sooner."
Rogers said he was long the dollar and the yen but "unfortunately" he was also long the euro, which economists predicted will collapse.
"You never have enough shorts when things collapse," he said. "I think people should be looking for shorts or defensive positions because we're going to have problems for a while, at least in my view."
Giving money to Greece will not solve its problems, it will only postpone them, as liquidity injections in other parts of the world have done, Rogers warned.
"As I've been saying to you all before, 2010 and 2011 are going to be years of currency turmoil not just in Europe but all over the world and Greece is bankrupt," he said.
"We can paper it over for a while, just as we papered over some of the problems in the US and the UK but the problems are going to come back," said Rogers.
Correction: A previous version of this story said a "glitch" at the New York Stock Exchange caused an accelerated selloff. This version makes clear the cause for the sudden surge in selling is unknown, but that erroneous trades are suspected.
The Dow ended Thursday's session down 3.2 percent, at 10,520.32, after being down as much as 998.50 points earlier, the index's biggest intraday drop on record.
According to regulatory officials, "a huge, anomalous, unexplained surge in selling" happened at about 2:45 p.m. New York time, setting off trading based on computer algorithms, thus amplifying the fall.
"Somebody should hang this New York Stock Exchange," Rogers said. "They claim to be the center of the world's capitalism, of the world's financial markets, you would think that in 2010 they could sort out simple things like electronics."
The New York Stock Exchange is investigating the cause of the possible erroneous trades.
But any tech problems alone are not to blame for the whole of the collapse as a decline was overdue, he added.
"It's time for a consolidation, there's always a reason for consolidation when it comes, the market went up for 13 months in a row, now we're going to, you know, correct for a while," Rogers told CNBC. "In my view the correction should have started sooner."
Rogers said he was long the dollar and the yen but "unfortunately" he was also long the euro, which economists predicted will collapse.
"You never have enough shorts when things collapse," he said. "I think people should be looking for shorts or defensive positions because we're going to have problems for a while, at least in my view."
Giving money to Greece will not solve its problems, it will only postpone them, as liquidity injections in other parts of the world have done, Rogers warned.
"As I've been saying to you all before, 2010 and 2011 are going to be years of currency turmoil not just in Europe but all over the world and Greece is bankrupt," he said.
"We can paper it over for a while, just as we papered over some of the problems in the US and the UK but the problems are going to come back," said Rogers.
Correction: A previous version of this story said a "glitch" at the New York Stock Exchange caused an accelerated selloff. This version makes clear the cause for the sudden surge in selling is unknown, but that erroneous trades are suspected.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
1150
1150 is going to be defended because it was basically January's highs. I do see lower prices ahead, only a trade back to the highs and above 1230 will negate my views here.
1155 BINGO
Hitting pre market here - We still got 30 minutes before the open but we will see what happens when we open-
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
OUCH
The Nasdaq is really getting cracked here. Would not be surprised to see -320 but maybe the protection team comes in.
Sweet play off the first hour bracket.
we are -257 here
Sweet play off the first hour bracket.
we are -257 here
first hour
first hour is in but markets are still making new lows- Sweet little set up on that play if you took it as a futures play. Dont look good here for the market, maybe they flush us!!!!!!!!!!
Ugly
Ugly first 10 mins, we have totally took back all of yesterday's huge gains. I will be watching the first hour, to see what the big guys want to take us
1155
1155 is the support level on the S&P. Don't expect that today obviously but that is the area to watch for some meaningful support
Huge gap down
Lets see how far we can work off this gap down. Very very weak in the first 3 minutes and testing the 11000 area.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Resistance
1217 is heavy resistance on S&P which is Support and resistance point from the 08 crisis. Above that we have 1230 which I touched on couple weeks ago. Today does not change my view of us forming a topping pattern but we will see.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
