Gold Update

What a sweet chart!!!!!!!!!!!
New all time high @ 1072, close to my prediction of 1076.
My interpretation of structure has this market in minuette (iv) of minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (C). The alternate view is a very bullish minor 3 of intermediate (3).
As pointed out in Thursday's post, it is unclear which peak (iii) finished at, 1062.50 or 1072.
Once (iv) completes, we should see another leg higher that would complete [v], and thus C.
If this assessment is correct, then the bulk of gains have already occurred. Of course, there is always the possibility that (v) could extend.
Bottom line - we should see another push higher before a meaningful correction.

CRUDE UPDATE

It is unclear whether crude broke free from a minor B wave triangle or not, as I show on the chart.
Price action certainly resembles a "thrust" that would be expected.
If a triangle, it measures to 84.33.
There is also the possibility that this is part of a combination corrective, and perhaps a combo that is not finished. That has yet to be determined.
Bottom line - price action does not appear finished in this move higher, however, it should be close to needing a retracement.
I am anticipating any retrace to be shallow and short lived.

US Dollar UPDATE

I interpret structure to be in minuette (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B]. A lot of ending 5's are very near folks.
Notice how the 50 sma has held price in check since July.
Noteworthy as well, look at the RSI action since it registered its low in early June. It has consistently been turned back down from the 50% level. In fact, this has happened 6 different times.
There is big positive divergence, forewarning that a change of trend may soon be at hand.
The DSI readings continue to point to a one way trade here. As has been mentioned in these posts numerous times, this can not go on indefinitely.
5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3 at 74.79. This is the minimum downside objective that would be expected to be reached.
Bottom line - This trend is very mature at this point in time. Be aware that it could end at anytime. As always, an impulse off a low with a channel break will give confirming evidence.

US$, Oil and effect on Gold

"China, Russia, Japan & France are working with oil producers in the Middle East to permit currencies other than the U.S. $ to be used to pay for oil. This basket of currencies will include the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the €. It is reported in leading U.K. newspapers that this payment may be in a 'new' currency that is made up of these currencies. It is also reported that a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar would form part of this 'basket' While we wait for confirmation from the countries involved, the news is in the market place and affecting gold strongly now. The most likely candidate for the 'new' money is the old Special Drawing Right of the International Monetary Fund. With the Chinese Yuan heading for one of the component parts of the Special Drawing Right in its next review by the I.M.F., the move would also incorporate the U.S. $, but break the link between oil and the $ a feature of the monetary world that has persisted for around 40 years now." -

Russia and Saudi Arabia have denied this news already and it is likely that if there is any truth to the story it will not be publicized this way. However, it remains expected by the market eventually and because of this the gold price is moving through overhead resistance! It is as if to say we expect it, so it is time to discount it now!

Once proved true and if true now, the era of uncertainty and monetary instability will be exacerbated by this break, taking the $'s prime support away from it and exposing it to the criteria that measures all other global currencies. This accounting will be bad for the $ and very, very positive for gold!