Feb Puts Update

average $1.05 now bidding $1.85 up a whopping 80%. Scaling a few here

SPY-Feb Puts

Going to open up higher also QID purchased last week seem to be purchased at the right day. Interested to see how this week pans out as we have not traded below the 10day moving average in a month. Will we bounce on this dip below or will be get a bigger pullback. No rush here.

Might send us HIGHER

THENS (Reuters) - Greece and its private creditors said on Saturday they were piecing together the final elements of a debt swap and expected to have a deal ready next week, essential for sealing a new bailout and avoiding an uncontrolled default. After muddling through round after round of inconclusive talks, the negotiations are in their final phase - though it appeared unlikely that a preliminary deal would be secured in time for a European Union summit on Monday. Greek bondholders said the two sides were finalising a deal along the lines of a proposal made by Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers. The bondholders' comments suggested creditors had accepted Juncker's demand for a coupon, or interest rate, of below 4 percent on new, longer-dated bonds that Athens will swap for existing debt. The coupon had been the main stumbling block in the talks, with euro zone ministers rejecting private creditors' demand for a coupon of at least 4 percent - above the 3.5 percent level Greece and its European partners had been holding out for. "Next week we will be in a position to complete the debt swap," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said, citing significant progress at Saturday's talks. "We are really one step away from the final deal." He confirmed that the two sides were working along the "exact framework" provided by euro zone finance ministers. Charles Dallara, chief of the Institute of International Finance that negotiates on behalf of banks and insurers, is due to leave Athens on Sunday but will remain in contact with Greek authorities, the IIF said. Still, for Athens, progress on the debt swap is at risk of being overshadowed by increasingly problematic talks with its foreign lenders, whose inspectors are in town demanding unpopular reforms that no politician wants to be linked to. DENSE, DIFFICULT AND CRUCIAL Crushed by 350 billion euros of debt and running out of cash quickly, Greece is scrambling to appease the "troika" of its official lenders - the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - and stitch up a deal with private creditors simultaneously. Unimpressed with Athens dragging its feet on reforms, the troika has said they could hold up aid if more is not done to make the Greek economy more efficient. "It's all very dense, difficult and crucial," a Greek finance ministry official said. European paymaster Germany is pushing for Athens to relinquish control over its budget policy to European institutions as part of discussions over a second rescue package, a European source told Reuters. With many Greeks blaming Germans for the austerity medicine their country has been forced to swallow, officials in Athens dismissed the idea as out of the question. "The government stresses that this responsibility belongs exclusively to the Greek government," said government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis. "The government has made a series of steps to improve the effectiveness of the public administration and a closer monitoring of the efforts to achieve fiscal targets.." The European Commission, the executive arm of the 27-country bloc, said it wanted the Greek government to maintain autonomy. "The Commission is committed to further reinforcing its monitoring capacity and is currently developing its capacity on the ground," a spokesman said. "But executive tasks must remain the full responsibility of the Greek Government, which is accountable before its citizens and its institutions. That responsibility lies on their shoulders and it must remain so." A government source in Berlin said Germany's proposal was aimed not just at Greece but also at other struggling euro zone members which receive aid and are unable to make good on their obligations. "All options can obviously be introduced only with the agreement of, for example, the Greeks themselves," he added. NEW BONDS FOR OLD The debt swap, in which private creditors take a 50 percent cut in the nominal value of their Greek holdings in exchange for cash and new bonds, is also a prerequisite for the country to secure a 130-billion-euro rescue plan drawn up last year. The two sides have broadly agreed that new bonds under the swap would have a 30-year maturity, but the talks ran into trouble over the coupon and whether the ECB and other public creditors must take losses on their holdings. A deal, aimed at chopping 100 billion euros off Greece's debt load, must be sealed in about three weeks at the latest as Greece has to repay 14.5 billion euros of debt on March 20. Otherwise Greece could sink into an uncontrolled default that might spread turmoil across the euro zone and tip the global economy back into recession. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that euro zone members were making progress to overcome their crisis but must do more to strengthen their financial firewall to stop the crisis spreading, adding the IMF was ready to help. "There is progress as we see it," Lagarde told a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "But it is critical that the euro zone members actually develop a clear, simple, firewall that can operate both to limit the contagion and to provide this sort of act of trust in the euro zone so that the financing needs of that zone can actually be met." Concern has also grown in recent days that the debt swap may not do enough to get the country's debt reduction plan back on track, and that Greece's European partners will be forced to stump up funds to cover the shortfall. The German news magazine Der Spiegel reported on Saturday that Greece's international lenders thought Athens would need 145 billion euros of public money from the euro zone for its second bailout, rather than the planned 130 billion euros. The magazine said the extra money was needed because of the deteriorating economic situation in Greece, echoing a Reuters report on Thursday. Greece is in its fifth year of recession, and hopes of an end to the crisis in the near term have virtually gone, because of the combination of squabbling politicians, rising social anger and its inability to push through badly needed reforms.

SPY puts-BINGO

Spy puts mentioned this morning before open are already up 40%. Lets see how far this one can go!!!!!

Housing- Been saying it is not returning for now

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new-home sales on records dating back nearly half a century. The Commerce Department said Thursday new-home sales fell 2.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 307,000. The pace is less than half the 700,000 that economists say must be sold in a healthy economy. About 302,000 new homes were sold last year. That's less than the 323,000 sold in 2010, making last year's sales the worst on records dating back to 1963. And it coincides with a report last week that said 2011 was the weakest year for single-family home construction on record. The median sales prices for new homes dropped in December to $210,300. Builders continued to slash price to stay competitive in the depressed market. This Jan. 18, 2012 photo shows a new home in a development in Pleasant Hills, Pa. Photo: AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar Still, sales of new homes rose in the final quarter of 2011, supporting other signs of a slow turnaround that began at the end of the year. Sales of previously occupied homes rose in December for a third straight month. Mortgage rates have never been lower. Homebuilders are slightly more hopeful because more people are saying they might consider buying this year. And home construction picked up in the final quarter of last year. "Although this decline was unexpected, it does not change the story that housing has likely bottomed," said Jennifer H. Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said easier lending requirements, historically low mortgage rates and improved hiring all point to consistent, albeit slow, rises in sales in the coming months. "A sustained rise in new home sales is imminent," he said. "Homebuilders say so too, and they should know." Hiring is critical to a housing rebound. The unemployment rate fell in December to its lowest level in nearly three years after the sixth straight month of solid job growth. Economists caution that housing is a long way from fully recovering. Builders have stopped working on many projects because it's been hard for them to get financing or to compete with cheaper resale homes. For many Americans, buying a home remains too big a risk more than four years after the housing bubble burst. Though new-home sales represent less than 10 percent of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the National Association of Home Builders. A key reason for the dismal 2011 sales is that builders must compete with foreclosures and short sales — when lenders accept less for a house than what is owed on the mortgage. Builders ended 2011 with a third straight year of dismal home construction and the worst on record for single-family home building. But in a hopeful sign, single-family home construction, which makes up 70 percent of the market, increased in each of the last three months.

VIX

VIX finally in the 18 range geez thought it would never happen again. Right now this is also a key. I am looking to buy VIX if we get down to low - mid teens.

Hmmm

Very interesting action yesterday. Whether we melt up higher or we pause here is definitely a toss up. I would not be initiating any new longs here. As of yesterday I am out all longs and went 1/2 on some QID. I think it might be prudent to buy some cheap puts against an longs on the SPY here the $130 puts @ $1 look good enough for a play. Yesterday Gold made a nice push higher and it came on the highest volume seen since August it looks like, watch for follow through on the commodities. Otherwise we are just coiling here but it is a pause in a upwards trend or a try and fail on higher. I am indifferent here so I am playing small. P.S. Retailer investors are showing little activity and the big guys might be waiting on them to come into the market for the usual game of giving them the bag and selling off.

QID

Buying 1/2 lot QID here @ 38. Medium term play

ZOLL Update

Great earnings and it gapped up into $69.30 area. It is pulling back here but that might be all she had here since earnings is a huge catalyst. Was a nice play though I did think we could have hit $71.

GOOG

Google earnings light- hmm let's see how hard it gets hit. initial reaction it is down $50.

QQQ

Q's are making 10 yrs highs here. Good shot Visa moves higher also. Watching 1309 maybe 1313-14 area for some heavy resistance.

1309

1309 is the 78.6 Fibonacci number to watch on this move up in the markets.

ZOLL- Update

Stop should be on this here around $65 so just a $1-$1.50 risk on this. Think we can get to the $70-71 area where i would be taking profits.

Good Sign

The futures are going gapping up showing we heading for a positive open. One of the things I look at in the first week is volume and price movement especially in the leaders from the previous year. Stocks likes APPLE have been strongly moving upwards and this notes a strong underlining market if we do get positive news. this morning futures are moving on the positive news from Alcoa and more than likely I would not expect us to sell off this gap up. Yes it is an hour before the open but this is a trend and we must respect it. If we do it would be a buying opportunity more than a chance to sell. We will see soon enough. I have some stocks on radar to go long such as CLR (74.30) AND ZOLL (66.20). The year has just begun and a lot of opportunity will be on the horizon.

RHT

Red hat looks like a short here @ 42.80. i would use $45 as a stop

Waiting

I like to always wait the first 5 days of the year for the cash to settle in at the beginning of the year. I think we will break out here soon, either we goto 1330 area or 1242. If I know which way I would express it but as of now I am not getting any signals but we are awaiting a break out.

$5 a gallon predicted by analyst- Hmmm

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — Five dollars a gallon for gas? Analysts say it could happen this year. Monique Griego has more on why gas prices could soon explode. Just this weekend, the president signed new sanctions against the country of Iran. Now, Iran is firing back with a threat that could send gas prices higher than ever. Prices at the pump already have drivers in pain. “I can barely afford it now,” said one driver. “Three dollars a gallon…I mean, five dollars gets you what, a gallon and a half?” said another. But if Iran follows through on a threat to shut down one of the world’s most important oil routes, analysts say prices here could skyrocket by summer. “If it gets to $5, that would be hurting the pockets very bad,” said Paul Rozanski, Severna Park. Threats of five dollars a gallon has Rozanski reconsidering his ride. “I just like the SUV because of the wintertime, but definitely in the summertime, get another car. Get a Prius or something,” he said. In just the past week, gas prices have gone up nearly seven cents and there is no sign of them coming down any time soon. According to AAA, the average for a gallon of regular is $3.25, compared to $3.07 this time last year. “Iran’s saber-rattling. I think that could have an impact,” said Pete Horrigan. Horrigan, who’s with the Mid-Atlantic Petroleum Distributors’ Association, says he won’t go as far as five dollars a gallon, but does expect prices to go up. “We certainly have enough issues going on in the world and in this country that it could certainly be higher,” he said. “We’ve been fortunate in this country because in European countries, they’ve been paying a lot more than that for a long time.” Many drivers are now hoping that good fortune holds out. The U.S. penalties against Iran don’t take effect for six months and even then, the president can waive them for national security reasons. The European Union is also considering new oil sanctions against Iran.