Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Finally 1500

Finally 1500 on the futures in the day time session and grinding up and up. I really think the market could hit its 2007 highs before we get any meaningful pullback!! Remember folks that although the volume is not great, the elections are over, bonds are just too pricey for the small returns, Oil and metals are on the back burner as there is little geopolitical issues so managers are just buying indices to go higher.
What also must be noted the the rotation of new leaders, notice AAPL and GOOGs of the world are not leading up higher here and that to be is a good thing.

FOMC meeting was today and continues tomorrow and we usually have a bullish sentiment into the meetings so we must be cautious of that.


CELG

stock looks like it wants to break higher-

in some calls

Today

Pre market the futures are down marginal. Today i would be looking at S&P 1490.75 for some support and 1494 for the real floor for the bulls. Though the SPX has made 1500 the actual futures have no yet in the day time session and it should happen soon but as volume is light and funds are just not trading we will just have to grind up slowly into that number.

I am not uber bullish but have been saying long is the way for a couple months as I am sticking to my longer term cycles that shows 2013 should make a significant high.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Dow Will Drop 20 Percent - Fitzpatrick

A confluence of factors suggests the Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading for a 20 percent decline this year, Citi FX Technicals Global Head Tom Fitzpatrick said Thursday on CNBC.
"While there's a little bit left to the top side in the near-term, we're still on the same page we have been for the last three months or so, which is, that we're going to peak out around these levels and see a (decline) probably in excess of 20 percent," he said on "Fast Money."
Fitzpatrick looked at Dow performance charts from 1973-1977 and from 2006-present for the analysis.
In addition to a 20 percent drop in the Dow, he also predicted that gold would hit $2,400 an ounce, jobless claims would rise and Brent crude would hit an all-time high.
"The equity market looks great, up 120 percent if you compare it to 2009," he added. "But if you compare it to 1999, we're unchanged, and we're below the 2000-2007 highs.
"The economy probably barely grew 1 percent in the fourth quarter. We have a situation where it's looking like it could be quite sluggish with the tax dynamics and the debt dynamics in the first quarter."

Why the small guy has no chance

Why the regular investors has no chance because of these scumbags- Listen video carefully

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-smackdown-ackman-icahn-spew-183647044.html?l=1



Thursday, January 24, 2013

Cycles

Doing some cycle work on the daily and it looks like we are stretched here and looking for a pullback.

NUGT

Stopped out -$1 per plan-
Gold not getting the bounce here with the S&P so strong

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

OH AAPL

Well that's why I DONT hold over earnings! I took my $28 profit on AAPL long and that's it bye bye. I didn't care if it ran to $1000 or not, the point is you got to play wisely.
Now AAPL is down almost 10% after market and I must say Cramer got this so WRONG again calling out AAPL to $750, I just knew that was the kiss of death just like his $1000 call on GOOG was, now all those who bought AAPL over $600 feeling alot of pain here geez-

Hit and run market here, though we are making new highs there is not much leadership and that tells me we are seeing the new phenomenon of ETF trading at work. Well tomorrow should be interesting to see what happens, I probably will only be around my system after lunch as I have a morning appointment but I would be looking at a gap down to buy for a bounce. Google needs to save the NASDAQ from a multi week downturn here.

AAPL

I will be out all AAPL (long from 485) before the close

Still working HIgher

Ok we have hit the first target of the 2012 HIGHS now what is next. I have been doing some work and I seem to be narrowing a zone targeting the 1525-1545 area. Do we stop there? No idea but if I was still long after hitting the 2012 HIGHS I would be scaling out of long positions into this area.

I am still holding NUGT long and a little AAPL.

I think we are stretched here so be very careful initiating new long here without a pullback.


Friday, January 18, 2013

Hedge Fund Averages for 2012

Hedge Fund business has been tough these last few years but last year was probably the worst year for performance with only an average gain of 2.86%.

2012 Highs Achieved!!! BINGO

Gap and go day yesterday as the market pushed higher most of the day.  We did pull in a little into the close, but it was still a positive session. Volume came up and breadth was Bullish, although it closed off its best levels.

The S&P 500 hit its 2012 highs target, but couldn't stay above that level into the close. This is cause for a little concern, but not too much until we see if there is responsive selling off that level.

For today, there are some key earnings on tap before the market open, so that will set the tone gap wise. It is OE day, so it may just be a sloppy trading day. As most know I don't execute trades on OE days.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Higher as Expected

15 minutes till the open and we are as expect from last week grinding higher. I would be taking off some longs here and looking for some resistance at S&P 1478 area.

AAPL- Taking some off above yesterday's high. Oh AAPL how I love and hate you lol

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

AAPL non stop

AAPL non stop upward from the 485 area. Now +$24. Taking off a bit at the close and riding the rest


AAPL +$19

AAPL almost +$20 from 485 level-

HIgher

Still thinking higher on the markets here- Though we not doing much volume I think we will just make small steps up possibly to that 1284-87 area. Today was a very slow day and it looks like big players are not taking any huge bets yet.
Personally my technicals are showing this year the market will hit its high before we start heading down again into bear market territory which should subside in 18-24 months.
After this year I would definitely be out of any equities!!!1

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

AAPL

Yes I have a huge love hate relationship with AAPL stock but yes I dived in today and bought at the level I noted @485. Lets see how much we can bounce if we do off that level. Something tells me this level MIGHT have some meaningful support.

Monday, January 14, 2013

AAPL-News

Apple Inc. has cut its orders for components for the iPhone 5 due to weaker-than-expected demand, people familiar with the situation said Monday.
Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the January-March quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had previously planned to order, two of the people said.
The Cupertino, Calif., company also has cut orders for components other than screens, according to one of the people.
Apple notified the suppliers of the order cut last month, the people said.
The move indicates that sales of the new iPhone haven't been as strong as previously anticipated and demand may be waning. It comes as the company has been facing greater challenges from Samsung Electronics Co. and other makers of smartphones powered by Google Inc.'s Android operating system.
While Apple has set the agenda for the smartphone market since it released its first iPhone in 2007, South Korea's Samsung, which sells many Android-based models at various price points, has already overtaken the U.S. company as the world's largest smartphone vendor by market share. Demand is also growing for inexpensive smartphones from Chinese makers such as Huawei Technologies Co.
In the 2012 third quarter, Apple held 14.6% of world-wide smartphone shipments, down from a peak of 23% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, according to IDC.
Samsung's share, meanwhile, rose to 31.3% in the third quarter of 2012, compared with 8.8% in the third quarter of 2010.
The Korean company said earlier this month that it expects to report another record operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2012, capping its best year ever amid strong sales of its Galaxy line of smartphones. The company expects an operating profit equivalent to between $8.1 billion and $8.5 billion for the three months ended in December.
Apple is slated to report earnings later this month.
The iPhone 5, released in September, represents Apple's effort to maintain its strong position amid intensifying competition. The latest model comes with a longer, four-inch screen compared with the 3.5-inch screens used in all previous iPhone models.
Japan's Sharp Corp. and Japan Display Co. and South Korea's LG Display Co. are the three suppliers of the screens, according to people with knowledge of the matter. When the iPhone 5 was launched, there were concerns that suppliers might not be able to produce enough to keep up with demand.
Apple representatives weren't immediately available for comment.
Apple's cut in orders may also affect first-quarter sales of component makers, some of which are largely dependent on the U.S. company. The fact that some iPhone components are highly customized makes it difficult for suppliers to find alternative buyers in a short time frame. Sharp, one of the suppliers of the screens, has been struggling financially with a cash crunch and losses from its television operations.
Japan's Nikkei reported earlier Monday that Apple has slashed its orders for iPhone 5 components.

AAPL

AAPL once again getting hit before pre market- I think it is too soon to get a long on this stock before we hit 485.
485 is a good level to watch for reaction if we get there

Thursday, January 10, 2013

NUGT

buying NUGT as a play on Gold-

Buy $10, stop $9.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Market

Market hasn't done much in terms of technical structure since the beginning of the year. Though I have a bias to the upside we are not blasting to the upside quickly.
Think we still hit last years high on the S&P in the near future and Time structure wise it is set up to peak in the mid February time frame if my structure works are on time. So saying that for the next month is have an upward bias.



Thursday, January 3, 2013

Consolidation

Nothing much going on today!
As expected since yesterday could be considered a trend day. I am not 100% on the trend day because we gapped up most of the gains

January Phenom

The phenom states that 85% of the time the DOW move of the year can be predicted to the first 5 days of trading. My problem with it this year is that the move yesterday was politically motivated and is not based on technicals.

The move yesterday 'suggests' we will see the highs of last year matched.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Finally a Decision

Though it took forever we finally have a vote in Washington. the amazing thing is that we are going to gap up huge but no one will be able to take advantage of it because most were out because of the craziness of these politicians. Last year it was the same most of the real  moves in the market up or down were made overnight due to the election and then the fiscal cliff issues making it very hard especially in the second half of the year to make money.
Well I hope for a more stable 2013, though I have been reading the big wigs who are saying it is more and more obvious we will be in a low return environment for a long time to come as less and less players are in the markets (makes you wanting back for the 90s).

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

CLIFF

These politicians need to jump off the cliff-


WASHINGTON (AP) — The No. 2 Republican in the House leadership says he opposes a Senate-passed measure to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.
Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor told reporters after a two-hour closed-door meeting Tuesday with his GOP lawmakers that he did not support the bill.
He said House leaders were looking for "the best path forward" and that no decisions had been made.
The Senate passed the measure early Tuesday by a sweeping 89-8 vote. House passage of the measure would send it to President Barack Obama for his signature. The bill would increase taxes on family income exceeding $450,000 and delay across-the-board spending cuts for two months.
House GOP leaders were considering amending the measure and sending it back to the Senate, but that step could produce a deadlock.

NEW YEAR!!

Happy New Year. Now 2012 is of the past. Let us look back with thanks and move on. There were good times and bad. Give thanks for both because there were a lot of lessons learnt from the bad. Now it is time for a New Year and a New. Leave all negativity behind and embrace 2013 with great optimism and just focus on positive vibes and just loving one another as God wants us to. This is the year that the Lord has made, let us be glad and rejoice in it. 2013 is a gift to each and everyone of us, that is why it is called the "present". Enjoy.