Not a household name but HUGE implication

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MF-Global-files-for-rb-3630437589.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Another MESS

Game Over. And in the meantime, we get the following report from a media source: "CME’s acting like the MF Global thing just happened. They’re haphazardly locking traders out who clear with MF, blocking access to the floor of not just MF Global employees but people who clear through them. As a result, nobody wants to leave the floor and nobody who still has access wants to trade just to get locked out." MF GLOBAL just filed for bankruptcy

Important number

Most important number on the upside is S&P 1307 which is the 78.6 Fibonacci. On the downside here early we should watch 1274 then 1262

European

Berlusconi proposed asset sale of 5Billioneauros a year is really impressing the markets

Confidence numbers

numbers were the lowest since March 2009.

Imagine

Just Imagine when APPLE has a miss like Netflix-Wow it will be a huge dive

NETFLIX

Wow over $200 less than two months ago. Nothing changes

Believe it or NOT

Believe it or not the S&P IS NOW FLAT FOR THE YEAR- Ten months and we have gone NOWHERE!!!!!!!!!!!!

BINGO

1250 hit - now at 1252

1250

Just infront of 1250 number is a gap @ 1248.75 but if we hit 1248 today I am sure we will tag 1250. watch 1253 after

New Week

What a turbulent week last week. We are still bouncing off that important 1068 number and I am sure the bulls are trying for that 1250 now. Lets not get into a totally bullish mode as we are just in a retracement play in a larger bear market. Can we go higher than 1250 sure! Actually I have some projections all the way up to 1338 but who knows as we are just trading off the European economics problems. I have a stock play that is going to be a long term play that I will post soon. I am just waiting for the right spot to get in. Lets see what they want to do this week. Also remember the trend is we reverse the option expiration week move so this week probability is down but I would not bet the farm since we are trading 90% off news.

Not Much

Not much to talk about the markets are once again in the negative for the year and it seem we will be around this area for awhile till be get out of earnings season. Rough to trade here as we are in high volatility mode with no real direction. Today the tech names as PCLN, AMZN, BIDU, and SINA are getting hit. Also didn't help that IBM and BAC earnings weren't that great. We have to watch for volume as it as been very low which should tell you to beware as the big guys are NOT playing here so why should you.

DOW

DOW now flat for the year- A year of nothing :)

Year to date

Nasdaq down 2.8% S&P up 2%

Interesting

As most know I am a strong player of trends. Last night was the start of earnings with AA and their earnings disappointed. We are gaping up on the basis that earnings season will be as expected and this is perceived as good. One thing to note eight trading days ago we were trading below 1100 and now we are at 1200 before the open. Lets see how we react for the next two days and see if that run up was a earnings rally and we sell on the news of earnings. Will see soon enough

Goldman on the Economy

US Views : OK for Now, But Slowdown Ahead By Jan Hatzius October 9 (Goldman Sachs) 1. After the sharp slowdown earlier in the year, the US economy seems to have grown at roughly a trend pace over the summer. Our GDP “bean count” now stands at 2½% for the third quarter, the ISM indexes are broadly stable in the low 50s, payroll employment is growing at a pace of around 100k per month, and the unemployment rate has been flat for the past three months. 2. Although the recent US growth news has generally beaten low expectations, we expect a renewed deceleration to just a ½%-1% growth pace in the next two quarters and see the risk of renewed recession at about 40%. The main reason is the turmoil in the euro area, where we switched to a recession forecast last Monday. To be sure, there is more talk in Europe about the types of action that we think would help, including a larger financial safety net for sovereign issuers (perhaps achieved by “leveraging” the EFSF), proactive bank recapitalization, and monetary easing. But policy continues to move very slowly relative to the building risks in the financial system and the deterioration in the real economy. A true turnaround in the financial situation does not yet appear to be in sight, let alone a bottoming in the real economy. 3. There are several channels through which the European crisis is likely to weigh on US growth. The impact via reduced exports is the most obvious, but it is unlikely to be very large. Exports to the Euro area account for about 2% of US GDP, so an impact of much more than 0.1-0.2 percentage point would probably require a much deeper European recession than we are forecasting. The bigger issue is the significant tightening in financial conditions and the availability of credit. Since early summer, our financial conditions index has tightened by more than 50bp, a move that might shave ½ percentage point from growth over the next year. In addition, there are some early indications of tightening credit availability including an increase in the percentage of small firms reporting in the NFIB survey that “credit was harder to get” last time they tried to borrow (the next update is due on Tuesday). Tighter credit could easily shave another ½ point or more, for a total impact from Europe on US growth of 1-1½ percentage points. Should the European recession deepen, the risk of further dislocations in the financial system and greater spillovers into the US would grow (for more on this, see Andrew Tilton’s US weekly dated September 16 at US Economics Analyst: 11/37 – Will the European Storm Cross the Atlantic?). 4. One key question is whether the European crisis—and the unsettled fiscal policy environment more generally—has caused a sufficiently large increase in uncertainty to lead companies to postpone hiring and capex decisions in a self-reinforcing manner. There is some evidence that corporate behavior may be changing, as online job ads have dropped off and the percentage of firms increasing employment in the nonmanufacturing ISM survey has declined at the most rapid pace on record over the past two months (data go back to 1997). No such deterioration was visible in Friday’s payroll numbers, but online job ads lead by a month or two and most of the ISM responses probably came after the payroll survey week, so the jury is still out. 5. The other key drag on US growth is the tightening of fiscal policy. Our baseline assumption remains extension of the employee-side payroll tax cut and passage of a small business hiring incentive; we do not assume extension of emergency unemployment benefits (although this is a close call), a further expansion of the payroll tax cut as proposed by the President, additional infrastructure spending or aid to state governments, or another foreign repatriation tax break. We also expect the Congressional “supercommittee” to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases that cover part of the mandated $1.2 trillion in savings over 10 years; the remainder will likely come via automatic cuts that take place from 2013. Overall, we view the risks around our assumption of just under 1 percentage point of fiscal drag (excluding multiplier effects) in 2012 as roughly balanced at present. 6. Even in the baseline case of no recession, we expect additional monetary easing as the Federal Reserve supplements “Operation Twist” with yet more purchases of long-term securities financed by creation of excess bank reserves (that is, additional QE). We believe that this could still boost growth a bit by further reducing the term premium in the Treasury yield curve and thereby ease financial conditions. But policymakers are clearly running into diminishing returns. If they want a bigger impact, they will probably need to supplement additional QE with changes to the Fed’s monetary policy framework. A relatively incremental version of this is the proposal by Chicago Fed President Evans to promise no monetary tightening until the unemployment rate falls back to 7%-7½% and/or inflation rises to 3%. A more radical version would be a temporary increase in the Fed’s inflation target or a move to price level or nominal GDP level targeting as discussed by Jari Stehn a couple of weeks ago (see US Economics Analyst: 11/38 – The Fed’s “Unconventional” Unconventional Options). 7. While additional easing is likely eventually, we currently do not expect a big move at the November 1-2 FOMC meeting. This is based partly on the somewhat better data and partly on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remark in his congressional testimony that Fed officials had “no immediate plans” to ease further. Of course, since Bernanke also said that he saw the economy as “close to faltering,” it probably would not take a huge amount of new information to change his mind, but for now our best guess is that the next statement will be less eventful than its two predecessors.

1068

Still holding as the bottom and surely was a great call. In the mean time just read John Paulson fund lost 47% year to date as they were too bullish. If those guys can lose anyone can lose but the problem is everyone want to be in the market. I warn a lot of people this year not to be heavy in the market because volatility is going to kill us and it surely has- Earnings season starts tomorrow and we should wait to see how earnings is perceived before we dive in. In my opinion, and this is just an opinion I think there is a good shot to get back to 1216 on the S&P and possibly 1250 but we have to wait and see. Right now we are overbought and we are still in a big picture bear market please.

1068

As said that 1068 would be a great number and it remains to be the bottom of this move up. I am very surprised at today's action as with the job numbers coming out tomorrow I was thinking we would flatten out at the end of the day but that was not to be. Maybe they know the numbers and are front running it but since I am not privy to such information I will sit back and if this is truly a rally I will reset. This is the fourth quarter and we are down for the year which is important! More than likely this is where fund managers must take risk to beat average benchmarks are they will get ZERO bonuses or fired. We all know the finance guys love their bonuses so what does this mean? Well it means we will be alot of momentum going especially if there is buying, as average funds can only go long. Watch of the job numbers tomorrow and if they are bad and we rally that is a sign we are chasing relative performance into the end of year.

R.I.P

Steve Jobs a true innovator the world will miss him

1068 rally-

Read my post at 8:53am, exact to the tick on the S&P 1068 HELD WE 40 POINT ABOVE Correction 50 point above

BINGO

1068 held like a champ- trading at highs of the day- 1104

One Question?

One question where are the Bulls calling for 1500 on the S&P in May. Why dont they bring them back on the Television?? Regular Wall Street pump and dump and the public.

1068 holding

1068 holding we now trading @ 1091

Weak still

Though we held 1068 we are still weak here- Bernanke is talking so that might be the problem. Should be key that 1068

BAC

New lows on BAC- Buffet is the MAN!!!!

Bingo

Hit 1068 and bouncing. Lets see how far we bounce. Death to BAC.

1045

Also 1045 comes back into play as it did on the the upside

OK folks

Ok folks this is what I see here. I see some support at 1068 area in the S&P. We traded down to the 1071.50 area before market opens but I would be getting out of shorts at 1068 level or 1056 a lower point as I believe we will get a reflex rally off those points if we hit them- I could be totally wrong here but the risk reward is surely compelling. On a time projection analysis I do see another low in three weeks and that tells me October might not be a pretty month for investors.

wow

wow seem like they want to test 1100 if not 1096/7 area

1106.75

That was the September lows 1106.75 we have to watch that level carefully

Crazy

Got in last night - computer system not working, car no working everything falls apart when I am not here. What a way to start the week. From the pattern we are at here we are obviously going to test the lows of the year.

Worst quarter since financial crsis

last Quarter was the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis