Saturday, November 7, 2009

Beans



The bean market continued with its wave (2) retracement this past week.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave. The primary [B] wave triangle is still my alternate view.
Drilling down intraday shows a very nice ABC corrective so far for wave (2). Price had a nice deep 88.6% retrace.
Perhaps it will want the reciprocal, 112.8% of A, for this C leg. This comes in at 944.
Other targets are where C = A at 953.75, and the 161.8% projection of A at 911.25.
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
As stated last week, I am still hopeful that the channel can maintain its integrity during this retracement process. It has supported twice thus far, making it vulnerable for a break, should price reach it.
The key levels for this upcoming week include the 880.25 L, as well as the 1029.50 H. Any trade through that high will likely signal that wave (3) has begun, assuming our assessment is correct.
I maintain a keen watch of the continued RSI divergence.
Bottom line - I expect wave (2) to come to a close shortly. We should witness nice upside price action with the onset of (3).

Corn



The corn market continued retracing its leg off the 302 L this past week.
Interpretation remains that this market is tracing an intermediate degree (4) wave of primary [A].
I still have concerns about this (4) wave. As discussed last week, it appears to be tracing a zigzag. After such a deep A leg, we are left with little room for C. We did have a nice B leg up that helps.
The price extreme of (1) is 347.60. Should price trade through that level, I would have to re-think my assessment of the structure.
The 50 sma has turned up, and is now above the 347.60 level. This may possibly help support price when they meet.
Notice that RSI has reached the upward sloping trend line, which dates back to early June. This may provide support as well.
Don't forget about the "point of recognition" at the 353 level, an additional possible level of support.
C = 61.8% of A at 365.25. The 78.6% projection of A sits at 356. The 61.8% retracement of (3) comes in at 349.50.

Bottom line - Until 347.60 is traded through, I maintain my bullish stance.