Crude took back yesterdays pounding and put in a engulfing bullish candle to start its C leg. Another monster range day around $4.53 with impressive volume which is the strongest since 5/7/09.
They finished off B in the globex session and left no doubts we were in the C part of the structure. It appears that we should be fairly close to completing wave 1 of 5.
AB=CD at 72.29. Retracements from the high include the 61.8% at 68.95, which is basically the high of A. There is also confluence around the 70.30 price with both the 70.7% and the 78.6% projection of A.
I am also getting a project higher also at around $74.55
This market is very buyable after it traces out its 2 wave IMO. I will be looking to put on a long line via calls. As always, please due your own due diligence before trading as Oil is definitely a beast by itself.
Time Cycles say we could have a daily peak tomorrow. This might coincide with the completion of 1. The next major peak we should be watching for doesn't come in for another 11 trading days.
Again folks, this doesn't mean price is going up for the next 11 days. It means that in 11 trading days, wherever price is at, should be a peak day. Price could very well be lower for the peak.
Have a great weekend
Friday, July 31, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Hate that
Hate when I am right and dont get the most out from it. Here is the 896 I was looking for at lunch time. Quick 60 points sell off here into the close.
Knew they would hit that 896 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrg
Knew they would hit that 896 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrg
Market Update
Well I think the last time I mentioned a possible top in the market should happen in July was May, the 23rd to be exact. This formation is working just as analyzed three months before and with one day left in July we are indeed at the highs for 2009.
Now here it gets tricky as I am still sticking to my number of 1045/1054 area as the more important number to look for as the top but we are 50 points away from that, so what do we do?
We can either trust the time analysis of July making a high +/- a week or wait for that 1045/1054 area. Timing is harder to do so I would put more reliability on the 1045/1054 area as the play but don't forget the time can be off a week so we still have a week in August for both time and price to get in sync.
Now here it gets tricky as I am still sticking to my number of 1045/1054 area as the more important number to look for as the top but we are 50 points away from that, so what do we do?
We can either trust the time analysis of July making a high +/- a week or wait for that 1045/1054 area. Timing is harder to do so I would put more reliability on the 1045/1054 area as the play but don't forget the time can be off a week so we still have a week in August for both time and price to get in sync.
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Resolving
Ok we are resolving ourselves to the upside this morning out of the consolidation as was noted last night. Oil also got some bounce perfectly at the levels we were looking at and that's why we took profits at the 62.75 level. Lets watch the volume early on to gauge where were are going.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
S&P 500 Analysis
We barely did much today as the ES had a narrow range of around 12 points and volume was below yesterday's. Obviously we are forming a triangle here in a consolidation pattern and it probably resolve itself higher when it breaks.
Watch that 877. on the upside it needs to break on the third push to send us to our first 988 target
Watch that 877. on the upside it needs to break on the third push to send us to our first 988 target
Crude
Well Crude got hit with heavy selling today and yes some of it was the EIA numbers but most of it was technical. Today volume was heavy, actually today's volume was the most in 11 weeks.
It seems we have some more room on the downside and if I am correct on the structure of this we should be looking at the 62.40 area as some stronger support. Below that 61.35, which coincides with the 261.8 Fibonacci extension off the 68.9 Highs.
It seems we have some more room on the downside and if I am correct on the structure of this we should be looking at the 62.40 area as some stronger support. Below that 61.35, which coincides with the 261.8 Fibonacci extension off the 68.9 Highs.
Bill Gross- Follow the money
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., reduced holdings of mortgage debt last month and added to cash and equivalent securities.
Gross cut the $161 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in mortgage bonds to 54 percent of assets, the lowest in almost two years, from 61 percent in May, according to a report on Pimco’s Web site. Gross trimmed holdings of government-related bonds to 24 percent of assets, the least since February, from 25 percent.
In an investment outlook published earlier this month, Gross said investors should look for “secure income” offered by bonds and dividend-paying stocks. “The outlook for risk assets -- stocks, high-yield bonds, and commercial and residential real estate will involve just that -- risk,” he said in the July 1 report.
The Total Return Fund returned 10.9 percent in the past year, beating 97 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gross cut the $161 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in mortgage bonds to 54 percent of assets, the lowest in almost two years, from 61 percent in May, according to a report on Pimco’s Web site. Gross trimmed holdings of government-related bonds to 24 percent of assets, the least since February, from 25 percent.
In an investment outlook published earlier this month, Gross said investors should look for “secure income” offered by bonds and dividend-paying stocks. “The outlook for risk assets -- stocks, high-yield bonds, and commercial and residential real estate will involve just that -- risk,” he said in the July 1 report.
The Total Return Fund returned 10.9 percent in the past year, beating 97 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
CRUDE-BINGO!!! 62.75
Can I say BINGO AGAIN- called that 62.75, we hit 62.70, all out +$5 nice swing there and technically excellent trade was never in a danger of being stopped.
BINGO-
MARKETJEDI
BINGO-
MARKETJEDI
Troubling Trend
There is troubling trend in the global markets towards US investments. Last week the Associated Press reports that "Foreign demand for the Long Term U.S. finanaical assets dropped by the largest amount in four months in May, as Japan and Russia trimmed their holdings of Treasury securities. Foreigners actually sold $19.8 Billion more long-term U.S. securities than they purchased in May, compare the net purchases of $11.5 Billion in April.
This is definitely a serious trend with such a drop in foreign investible funds for meeting the U.S. borrowing needs. The FED has definitely seen the danger and that was the reason they went into the market to buy these securities in an attempt to bring back some confidence in the international market towards U.S. securities.
My thesis of this selling is China's selling of U.S. assets to fund their stimulus and growth agenda to be at the forefront when the global economy start to return to growth.
It is funny how the pundits in the media are saying buy stocks BUT yet they saying growth will take awhile to return. I think they know what is happening they see the cash rich nation slowing and in some cases like China dumping treasuries on the market which have them very nervous.
This is definitely a serious trend with such a drop in foreign investible funds for meeting the U.S. borrowing needs. The FED has definitely seen the danger and that was the reason they went into the market to buy these securities in an attempt to bring back some confidence in the international market towards U.S. securities.
My thesis of this selling is China's selling of U.S. assets to fund their stimulus and growth agenda to be at the forefront when the global economy start to return to growth.
It is funny how the pundits in the media are saying buy stocks BUT yet they saying growth will take awhile to return. I think they know what is happening they see the cash rich nation slowing and in some cases like China dumping treasuries on the market which have them very nervous.
WOW-Crude
Wow crude went down to 63.04, man oh man just crushed. I am surprised it stopped at that number because that number didn't come up in my work. I am looking for 62.75 area.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
BROKE 65 and now $64 on Crude
Not only did we break $65 we just now broke $64. I have a minor support number @ 63.80, so watch for that area.
See you tomorrow
MARKETJEDI
See you tomorrow
MARKETJEDI
Crude-Lesson
One important note I have to point out here on Crude and technical analysis. Alot of people think news moves the market and I dont think so. I think technical analysis rules and could be seen in that Crude play. that set up was based on technicals and not on the EIA numbers just reported.
Last week I noted 67.60 was the measured move and if we reach there it is an excellent risk reward trade on the short side. We actually traded a bit higher which usually troubles me because I am thorough in my analysis but I said still short it and put you stop above that last swing high.
Well if you played exactly to script you would never be in danger of being stopped out and would be up +$3.50 as I am writing this. Now you are home free as you should take 1/2 off here and the stop on the second 1/2 should be set at entry.
I have a target of 62.75 on this trade, we will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Last week I noted 67.60 was the measured move and if we reach there it is an excellent risk reward trade on the short side. We actually traded a bit higher which usually troubles me because I am thorough in my analysis but I said still short it and put you stop above that last swing high.
Well if you played exactly to script you would never be in danger of being stopped out and would be up +$3.50 as I am writing this. Now you are home free as you should take 1/2 off here and the stop on the second 1/2 should be set at entry.
I have a target of 62.75 on this trade, we will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Crude Update
Down $2.79 now- $65 cracked
up $3 on that trade, I would take 1/2 off here and ride the rest if you have multiple contracts.
Sweettt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
up $3 on that trade, I would take 1/2 off here and ride the rest if you have multiple contracts.
Sweettt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Crude
Crude getting hit again early- There is EIA numbers this morning on Oil but as of now we are down $1.92. If and I say if the structure works that Oil short will be golden.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Current chart
It appears that we are still in process of tracing out a triangle, although, slightly different than what I mapped out yesterday. Wave C looks to have morphed into a more complex structure(WXY).
If my assessment of structure is correct, we should see a thrust upward on E's completion. It has a 21.50 handle measurement from high to low. This would target out around 995 (VERY IMPORTANT NUMBER) using the apex. We will have to see where E ends to get an exact target.
Have a feeling-
I wont be watching the markets tomorrow (wednesday) as I am tending to some stuff. One thing I noticeD today I think we hit a wall or it is coming, now I am not saying we wont go higher remember my 1045/56 area is still in ply BUT today's action just feels tired really tired. I think the weak bears were shaken out when we broke 925 and then 956 but something here doesn't feel right.
I can't put my finger on it but let's say I would be extremely cautious. Maybe I am just tired and need some rest :)
MARKETJEDI
I can't put my finger on it but let's say I would be extremely cautious. Maybe I am just tired and need some rest :)
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Crude
Crude is getting hit hard today. Remember 67.60 was the measured move and we went above it. Going about it obviously makes the play have less risk reward but I think that any short at that level or above would be a good play.
As of now +.90 on that crude short, stop sould be above the last swing high.
MARKETJEDI
As of now +.90 on that crude short, stop sould be above the last swing high.
MARKETJEDI
Crude Analysis
Crude had its 9th consecutive positive close today. The range really tightened up today at $1.39.
The daily put in a small bodied spinning top/doji candle (we should all know what this means). We ran into stiff resistance at the 61.8% retrace from the high and the 3 bar daily projection around 69.
I'm looking at 120 minute chart to get rid of some of the noise, where I am noticing a beautiful channel.
As far as targets go, the 78.6% is at 69.59. The 261.8% projection of A comes in at 69.66 and the 4 bar daily projection sits at 69.69. So we have a pretty good confluence of numbers in the mid 69's.
The targets assume, of course, that the structure has not completed. At this point, that's my guess. The action that we had today is indicative of a 4 wave pattern. If that is the case, the probabilities are that the retrace will not be deep. The 23.6% is at 66.70
Here is a nice (and easy) setup that happened today. Several things came together to make this a no-brainer:
1.) we reached the top of the channel and
2.) a 5th wave was completing and
3.) they threw a doji candle at us
Easy money folks.
The daily put in a small bodied spinning top/doji candle (we should all know what this means). We ran into stiff resistance at the 61.8% retrace from the high and the 3 bar daily projection around 69.
I'm looking at 120 minute chart to get rid of some of the noise, where I am noticing a beautiful channel.
As far as targets go, the 78.6% is at 69.59. The 261.8% projection of A comes in at 69.66 and the 4 bar daily projection sits at 69.69. So we have a pretty good confluence of numbers in the mid 69's.
The targets assume, of course, that the structure has not completed. At this point, that's my guess. The action that we had today is indicative of a 4 wave pattern. If that is the case, the probabilities are that the retrace will not be deep. The 23.6% is at 66.70
Here is a nice (and easy) setup that happened today. Several things came together to make this a no-brainer:
1.) we reached the top of the channel and
2.) a 5th wave was completing and
3.) they threw a doji candle at us
Easy money folks.
Wave Count chart
This is a wave count on the present market. Is it right or wrong we will see soon enough. Not my chart here but I concur
Sunday, July 26, 2009
We are now flat
Yes folks seem like the market is now flat on the year and up a whopping 37% off its March low. For most of us who really measure everything on a yearly basis we are no different since January 1st. The market seem very bullish here but the question remains how much higher can we go, well I will answer that right now, 1054!!!!! That's my upside project since we hit that 666 on the Market in March.
I would love to see that number not because I have been calling for it since March as a possible top to any lift higher but it will confirm the structure on the bigger pattern of a bear market rally.
I saw this chart today which just blew me away
This chart shows in a nutshell what I have been saying for a long time that we are in a long team wealth destruction cycle and it wont stop. Yes you stock value might increase in value but inflation is eatting so fast into that growth that you are net loss on your investment in the SP500.
I will post some analysis tomorrow as I was busy this weekend doing some other stuff.
MARKETJEDI
I would love to see that number not because I have been calling for it since March as a possible top to any lift higher but it will confirm the structure on the bigger pattern of a bear market rally.
I saw this chart today which just blew me away
This chart shows in a nutshell what I have been saying for a long time that we are in a long team wealth destruction cycle and it wont stop. Yes you stock value might increase in value but inflation is eatting so fast into that growth that you are net loss on your investment in the SP500.
I will post some analysis tomorrow as I was busy this weekend doing some other stuff.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, July 24, 2009
CRUDE ANALYSIS
Crude looks like it has setup a H/S on my trading chart (144T). It also appears as though it wants to fail.
It measures .80 and targets down to around 65.90. The 161.8% projection from the high is conveniently close at 65.96. We will see how this plays out.
The pattern looks like it is setting you a Head and Shoulder pattern which should work but don't think it has to so be careful and use stops.
Notice we hit that 67.50 area I said was the PERFECT area to short and you SHOULD be short there with a stop appropriate to the H&S pattern
We will see.
MARKETJEDI
It measures .80 and targets down to around 65.90. The 161.8% projection from the high is conveniently close at 65.96. We will see how this plays out.
The pattern looks like it is setting you a Head and Shoulder pattern which should work but don't think it has to so be careful and use stops.
Notice we hit that 67.50 area I said was the PERFECT area to short and you SHOULD be short there with a stop appropriate to the H&S pattern
We will see.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Third push !!
All my students know about the 3 pushes and here we got a textbook three pushes above the 956 level. Today was the third push and we broke through showing confirmation of the move.
Got to read up your technicals they work.
NOW are we heading to my ULTIMATE 1054 AREA????? I guess we will see soon enough!!
MARKETJEDI
Got to read up your technicals they work.
NOW are we heading to my ULTIMATE 1054 AREA????? I guess we will see soon enough!!
MARKETJEDI
Only for the experienced!!!!
Building a position here short based on the S&P 500 FUTURES.
First position here @ 963
First position here @ 963
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
BINGO AGGGGAAAIIIIIIIN!!!
Again 956 stopped us today again. The high of day was 956.50 which shows that this level is EXTREMELY important. Now today if I am not tired I will run some charts and see what is the likely scenario here but The wedges in recent months haven't led to much on the downside so I don't want to jump the gun.
The earnings season is very similar to the last but Morgan Stanley's negative earnings this morning might put a cap on us here. If we do pullback I have those SSO Puts as a play but I rather stay light here.
MARKETJEDI
The earnings season is very similar to the last but Morgan Stanley's negative earnings this morning might put a cap on us here. If we do pullback I have those SSO Puts as a play but I rather stay light here.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
BINGO AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well you all got the 956 level last night as important level and the market went to 956.50 as its high and retreated 15 points!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a call geez.
The power of technical analysis my friends that's all and nothing else. I dont claim to be a savant or have some super powers but just hard work and experience.
Watch those numbers I gave on Oil I think it will be an excellent play on the short side (67.50). Although I was a Oil bull long term, I have changed my stands for the short to medium term to bearish and think this one could really crash.
I still see the structure being fullfilled on Soybeans and with Oil those two trades should be some cracking plays till the summer is up and the traders are back to play the equities.
The power of technical analysis my friends that's all and nothing else. I dont claim to be a savant or have some super powers but just hard work and experience.
Watch those numbers I gave on Oil I think it will be an excellent play on the short side (67.50). Although I was a Oil bull long term, I have changed my stands for the short to medium term to bearish and think this one could really crash.
I still see the structure being fullfilled on Soybeans and with Oil those two trades should be some cracking plays till the summer is up and the traders are back to play the equities.
956 Very Important
Today was very interesting indeed, on most charts I can see negative divergences all over and volume is decreasing at a faster rate than usual. What does that mean? Mean if I am long I would be cautious as divergence and the wedging formations on the charts usually is precursor to a pullback. My best guess is that we will pullback tomorrow but how far is the question.
For those who believe in the astronomical cycle you must take note that tomorrow is a solar eclipse which is usually the beginning of reversal in the market. Do I follow astronomical cycles Yes and No, but I will be looking at this one since it seem that we are overbought and having divergences on the charts.
My favorite summer trading instrument Oil is on the retracement as excepted and I would be looking at that 67.50 area for another short. The 62% Fibonacci numbers is around 67.62 so that would be my perfect short trigger.
Not much to say but look for some break on the channels to go short tomorrow on the Markets.
Remember watch that 956 level very important if we break with conviction the measure move is around 1007
MARKETJEDI
For those who believe in the astronomical cycle you must take note that tomorrow is a solar eclipse which is usually the beginning of reversal in the market. Do I follow astronomical cycles Yes and No, but I will be looking at this one since it seem that we are overbought and having divergences on the charts.
My favorite summer trading instrument Oil is on the retracement as excepted and I would be looking at that 67.50 area for another short. The 62% Fibonacci numbers is around 67.62 so that would be my perfect short trigger.
Not much to say but look for some break on the channels to go short tomorrow on the Markets.
Remember watch that 956 level very important if we break with conviction the measure move is around 1007
MARKETJEDI
Monday, July 20, 2009
Got a Note
Got a note from a reader asking how they could take advantage of that trade of the year I mentioned on Soybeans. You would firstly have to have a futures account or assign your IRA/401k to a custodial who can allow you to trade futures.
You can send me an email and I will try to help.
Marketjedi@gmail.com
MARKETJEDI
You can send me an email and I will try to help.
Marketjedi@gmail.com
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Soybeans Analysis
If this is correct which I believe it is, beans are getting ready for a big decline- a classic wave 3 of 3 Pattern
Any print below 957.50 (A high) will confirm that the move from 680.75 has been corrective. AB=CD at 318.50...Gulp! Not sure that level is in the cards (not sure it isn't either), but the 61.8% comes in around 655, which would be considered a minimum level to look for.
Excellent short I believe..
MAYBE TRADE OF THE YEAR RIGHT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Euro Analysis-
I know most will saying the fundamentals of the dollar says we are heading lower but technically in the charts it says the Dollar goes higher..
The Euro charts appears to validate my short-term dollar bearishness.
AB=CD at about 1.485, which would complete a nice flat. The minimum 5th wave target would be the 61.8% at about 1.49. It looks like when this structure completes its counter-trend rally then it will fail, which would confirm my dollar outlook.
For the near term though, it looks like this can be bought with a pull back if your aggressive. If conservative, wait for a break over point D.
The Euro charts appears to validate my short-term dollar bearishness.
AB=CD at about 1.485, which would complete a nice flat. The minimum 5th wave target would be the 61.8% at about 1.49. It looks like when this structure completes its counter-trend rally then it will fail, which would confirm my dollar outlook.
For the near term though, it looks like this can be bought with a pull back if your aggressive. If conservative, wait for a break over point D.
Week ahead- Watching that 956 Pivot
When we look back a month or so from now, it is quite possible that we will be talking about what took place on July 15th. It was on that day when we saw a breakaway gap over the old 912 gap that seemed impossible to get back over while the bulls were fighting to simply hold the 875 neckline. We had been testing that nasty 875 level over and over. We held when suddenly, and out of nowhere, we gapped hard over 912 and just kept on running for the rest of that day. Volume was quite strong and the advance decline line was quite powerful as well. Two necessary ingredients to confirm such a gap up and run. If that gap had been accomplished on lighter volume or by just a few leading, heavy weighted stocks, it would make the whole move just another meaningless head fake. The bulls celebrated in that they did get what was needed in the volume and the advance decline line thus it was something that had to respected. The gap also provides good news to the bulls in that it puts another very powerful support level at 912, protecting 875 down the road. When you get a gap as powerful as what we saw Wednesday above the critical neckline at 875, it makes the task of breaking down by the bears much more difficult. Lots of money will come in and support this market at 912 now. It's an extra layer of clothing for the bulls that has to make them feel more secure. What's even more telling is how the market, on the short term time frame charts, has stayed grossly overbought since that gap up on Wednesday. The bulls feeling braver and braver while the shorts are willing to cover more quickly than usual. They understand the power of this gap and know their task is harder here thus the desire to not stay around too long and watch their money erode away. That's how overbought stays overbought. We will need some selling soon to unwind things some but that selling should be more shallow than what we could have expected without that breakaway gap in place. It's a game of emotion and the emotional component here is the greed of the bulls versus the fear of the bears and fear is a much deeper emotion to deal with. People respond to fear a lot faster than greed.
The measured move break above the pivot is measure to the 998 level.
MARKETJEDI
The measured move break above the pivot is measure to the 998 level.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, July 16, 2009
GOOG
WOW GOOG not so GOOGLICIOUS this earnings, I showed a after market close about $15 off the 4pm close. Should be interesting tomorrow what the analysts say.
GOOG
GOOG earnings was after the closing bell and seem to be all over the place. I usually dont place much inot after hour trading in a stock as in the morning their will be a host of analysts out which will push the stock in the correct trend.
Right now GOOG is trading down $8 as of 4:30..
Right now GOOG is trading down $8 as of 4:30..
Tech leading
Tech is the definite leader here. Seem like we screaming up into GOOGLE earnings as everyone remember what happened last quarter.
NASDAQ 100 is at new highs for 2009.........
NASDAQ 100 is at new highs for 2009.........
Levels
the Fibonacci 38.2% down is around 905.75, while the 23.6 down is approximately 915, lining up with the gap left in that area. So in my opinion important level to watch will be 914-915.
Stay tuned.
MARKETJEDI
Stay tuned.
MARKETJEDI
Good shot
Good shot we head toward that 914 area where the gap is present. High probability play but I wont be playing, busy with some other stuff today.
What I am looking at
Looking at 925.50 to take off profit. Some support down 924 area so I hope we get close, below 924 area we looking at 920.75
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Thoughts
Well folks we are getting our usual earnings run here. Most of you know we get this ever quarter but this time we got an early boosting from the GS earnings. From here I do except us to get the final push up, I have been talking about to fulfill the pattern on the charts.
Very important to note we have two gaps left below on the ES Futures at 914 and 910, which I expect to get filled before we go much higher (reason I was ok with my short play yesterday evening).
The model for today should be for consolidation so I do not expect too much action.
MARKETJEDI
Very important to note we have two gaps left below on the ES Futures at 914 and 910, which I expect to get filled before we go much higher (reason I was ok with my short play yesterday evening).
The model for today should be for consolidation so I do not expect too much action.
MARKETJEDI
Interesting read
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nine-Reasons-the-Economy-is-usnews-1021116601.html?x=0&.v=1
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Closing trade
Closing this ES trade here in the overnight session +2 right here, since I am 3 times normal size on it.
Bingo!!
Bingo!!
Double short here
poked short again @ 29.50. Holding these
average 924.50.
Do not try this at home if you not experienced.
Remember 954 is still heavy resistance above. Might be too early on this but will surely hedge if it gets away
average 924.50.
Do not try this at home if you not experienced.
Remember 954 is still heavy resistance above. Might be too early on this but will surely hedge if it gets away
Technicals
We have just touched the weekly 50SMA on the S&P, something we haven't done since dec 2007.
Stay tuned.
Stay tuned.
Steaming higher
Market steaming higher but the big guys aren't buying it is mostly small lots but never the less high we go
Good morning
I am going to be poking short S&P futures at around 917 if we trade up there.
Order to short @917
Order to short @917
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Oil
Crude doesn't seem to be holding onto its gains today. $60 is proving to be very challenging indeed on the upside.
SHORT
I could be dumb here but I am currently short the S&P Futures, just a vibe and playing my regular turn around tuesday trend. Tight stops
GS Earnings
GS earnings should set the tone for the day. Let's see how GS trades after the open as of right now an hour before the open it is flat as GS was up huge yesterday on Whitney's upgrade.
Anyone see Crude- bouncey, bouncey, who told you so???
63.50 is resistance above for crude.
Remember folks what I have been saying I think we get one last push up before we really head down based on the wave structure also July should contain a high from the cycle theory.
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Anyone see Crude- bouncey, bouncey, who told you so???
63.50 is resistance above for crude.
Remember folks what I have been saying I think we get one last push up before we really head down based on the wave structure also July should contain a high from the cycle theory.
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, July 13, 2009
First hour break was higher
First hour break was higher and thus the push higher. Again that 875 area proved to provide some support.
Crude
For those who are watching remember we had out target for oil initial move down to the $57 area. Since we are now in that area I would expect us to chop around there and/ or possible bounce.
First hour is in so look for a break either way to play the indices.
Good luck
First hour is in so look for a break either way to play the indices.
Good luck
All gaps FILLED
All indices have now filled there gap within the first hour, that's how we like it done.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
More Stimulus
There is more talk over the weekend of the California IOU's and the need for more stimulus. Folks I said it early in the year that we will get a rally and everyone will say we are coming out of the recession but it will just be a blimp and nothing else. Lower prices are in store and I think to a minimum we have a bear market for another three years with a possible substantial low late next year, we WON'T be in recover mode any time soon.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Weekend Updates
Got a few things to talk about but the first thing I would like to talk about is the 30yr bond. Although i think bounce are heading towards PAR i believe we will get a bounce here to the 122.1 area, there is also a possibility for a extended move to 127'3 if earnings are significantly worse than expected and there is a flight to quality of the bonds..
Next the price action in the S&P have now changed to negative and I have a projection down to the 821/819 area based on my analysis. Now the only caveat is when as I do have a negative time frame analysis till the end of the month of July, does that mean we head to 821 before then or do we attack that area after is too early to tell but one thing is certain we have developed a cycle pattern to lower price from here into the end of the month.
Next there is an obvious head and shoulder pattern in the charts which is setting up lower prices. Now if the pattern morphs it would definitely hit out below targets ad leave the bulls in a stalemate but not complete doom. As I have been saying I think there is one last hooray before the bear REALLY returns.
Remember we are in the summer mode here so I would not be going out heavy on plays, just stick to the bigger picture analysis and play off the larger patterns.
MARKETJEDI
Next the price action in the S&P have now changed to negative and I have a projection down to the 821/819 area based on my analysis. Now the only caveat is when as I do have a negative time frame analysis till the end of the month of July, does that mean we head to 821 before then or do we attack that area after is too early to tell but one thing is certain we have developed a cycle pattern to lower price from here into the end of the month.
Next there is an obvious head and shoulder pattern in the charts which is setting up lower prices. Now if the pattern morphs it would definitely hit out below targets ad leave the bulls in a stalemate but not complete doom. As I have been saying I think there is one last hooray before the bear REALLY returns.
Remember we are in the summer mode here so I would not be going out heavy on plays, just stick to the bigger picture analysis and play off the larger patterns.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, July 10, 2009
875 Area
875 Area again working as a point of control. We closed @ 874.50.
Have a great weekend. I will post some charts this weekend.
MARKETJEDI
Have a great weekend. I will post some charts this weekend.
MARKETJEDI
Good Luck
Leaving now and might not be back till lunch or not. Remember the S&P levels noted and how that 872 area is important.
Definitely we will be making an impulsive move here soon if I was a betting man I would say down but don't lose sight of the fact that we are in a 1-2-3 pattern which mean we should have one last push up before we start a real decline.
MARKETJEDI
Definitely we will be making an impulsive move here soon if I was a betting man I would say down but don't lose sight of the fact that we are in a 1-2-3 pattern which mean we should have one last push up before we start a real decline.
MARKETJEDI
Crude Oil
Crude Oil cracked again. Went mid $58 during the overnight session. I will be taking off the USO puts at the open plus a gazillion :)
Rocking
MARKETJEDI
Rocking
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Note for tomorow
I will only be in for the first 2 hours of the day tomorrow. The 885 level today proved to be the area of resistance for the market as noted yesterday.
In general I think we are winding up for a impulsive move and as most of you who have been following my blog knows it is not a prediction of direction but of the move. If we get a move below 872 area I would be next looking for an impulsive more towards that 851 number and on the upside again 904 should be the upside impulse possibly 911.50 on a extension on the upside.
We are in the summer dull drums reinforced by today's low volume which was tracking at something like 25% the 2 month average which is very low as the last 3 months volume has been light. Now it is very important to watch the next impulse move to see where the volume comes in as I am 100% sure it should be playable as a continuation play of reversal based on the volume.
A lot of stuff going on but aren't being focused on by the press for example talk of additional stimulus needed, that the first stimulus wasn't effective, that companies are still holding off on hiring, housing prices look like they will still be falling and the list goes on.
MARKETJEDI
In general I think we are winding up for a impulsive move and as most of you who have been following my blog knows it is not a prediction of direction but of the move. If we get a move below 872 area I would be next looking for an impulsive more towards that 851 number and on the upside again 904 should be the upside impulse possibly 911.50 on a extension on the upside.
We are in the summer dull drums reinforced by today's low volume which was tracking at something like 25% the 2 month average which is very low as the last 3 months volume has been light. Now it is very important to watch the next impulse move to see where the volume comes in as I am 100% sure it should be playable as a continuation play of reversal based on the volume.
A lot of stuff going on but aren't being focused on by the press for example talk of additional stimulus needed, that the first stimulus wasn't effective, that companies are still holding off on hiring, housing prices look like they will still be falling and the list goes on.
MARKETJEDI
TICK
Getting some tick divergence on this last downside , be careful if you are short.
I will be off for the rest of day. If the tick divergence kicks in look for 885 to be tested.
See you tomorrow
I will be off for the rest of day. If the tick divergence kicks in look for 885 to be tested.
See you tomorrow
875
Trading around that 875 area again. More than likely this area will turn out being the developing area point of control for the markets. Again upside resistance should be that 885 level noted earlier.
Conflicting signal
Getting conflicting signals here and narrow range- I would suggest sitting on your hands-
In the mean time Crude is now below $60
In the mean time Crude is now below $60
Areas to watch
Levels to watch for the S&P Futures
Upside Numbers: 885, 898.25 and 911.50
Downside Numbers: 871.50, 851.25 and 837.
These should be the critical numbers on both side of the trade here. We are currently gapping up into the open on the Alcoa earnings which was weak but not as weak as expected. Oil is also getting that bounce from $60 which was spoke about but i do think it gets broken. I have a couple of charts but I think i will wait for the weekend to post them.
Have a great day
MARKETJEDI
Upside Numbers: 885, 898.25 and 911.50
Downside Numbers: 871.50, 851.25 and 837.
These should be the critical numbers on both side of the trade here. We are currently gapping up into the open on the Alcoa earnings which was weak but not as weak as expected. Oil is also getting that bounce from $60 which was spoke about but i do think it gets broken. I have a couple of charts but I think i will wait for the weekend to post them.
Have a great day
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Crude
Crude low of the day was $60.01. Watch the rest of week on this level if we bounce or crack it. I am all out of that trade and holding 1/2 USO $40 puts.
Only Winners here
MARKETJEDI
Only Winners here
MARKETJEDI
USO Puts
Well those $40 USO Puts are up about 300% since first mentioned June 30. Crude is crushed here and if we break $60 we will surely see out $57 area target.
Rocking here folks, it is summer and slow so pick your spot and strike.
MARKETJEDI
Rocking here folks, it is summer and slow so pick your spot and strike.
MARKETJEDI
Crude
Crude continues it downward spiral as expected. What a killer play over $12 on that sucker man oh man. Support line on crude 60.60 so watch that area for some type of reaction.
Killer play
MARKETJEDI
Killer play
MARKETJEDI
875 Now Broken
875 on the futures now broken if we close below it today it would confirm the bearish sentiment change in the market and more than likely act as some resistance.
If this 875 proves top be pivotal then we will have a new range established on a lower level. Range would like be the 850-925 area.
Watching that 868.50-869 now!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our Analysis of cycles calls for a high in the market in July remember. Now the questions is whether it is already seen it or we have to wait, technically we are just in the first trading week of the month.
MARKETJEDI
If this 875 proves top be pivotal then we will have a new range established on a lower level. Range would like be the 850-925 area.
Watching that 868.50-869 now!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our Analysis of cycles calls for a high in the market in July remember. Now the questions is whether it is already seen it or we have to wait, technically we are just in the first trading week of the month.
MARKETJEDI
875
Again we hit that magical 875 number and bounced. Very very important area in deed but my best analysis show us breaking that 875 and heading towards 847. Today we look like we might open relatively flat and we definitely are in a pattern for consolidation of the early part of the day so be careful over trading the early ours.
In the mean time our weekend call on lower prices on the tech guys are GOOG, BIDU and AAPL worked perfectly and were huge winners. I would be taking profits as they go.
Oil still looks lower and should hit sub soon.
MARKETJEDI
In the mean time our weekend call on lower prices on the tech guys are GOOG, BIDU and AAPL worked perfectly and were huge winners. I would be taking profits as they go.
Oil still looks lower and should hit sub soon.
MARKETJEDI
GE worth $2 !!!
If GE is worth $2, BAC is worth the same in my opinion. Man I am a long term bear but alot of people are going to be in a world of hurt because they really think stocks are coming back and are dollar cost averaging in. Who will be right???
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
BINGO
Bingo on that 878 mentioned lunchtime and notice it stopped the downside. Hmm the big guys must be reading my blog !!!!!!
Now it would be very negative if we close below that 878 number-we will see in 20 minutes
Now it would be very negative if we close below that 878 number-we will see in 20 minutes
S&P Futures
If 882 dont hold here after lunch I do expect us to test 878. Remember as noted before 875 is line in the sand for the short term bulls.
Hope you played
Hope you all played the note from the weekend post on my opinion on the big techies: GOOG, BIDU and AAPL being sells for the next few weeks.
GOOG -$8 today
BIDU -$6 today. look like it wants $250 soon.
AAPL -$1.50 today
GOOG -$8 today
BIDU -$6 today. look like it wants $250 soon.
AAPL -$1.50 today
Nasdaq Leading
Nasdaq is leading us lower which for me means lower prices in store later today. Also we have our usual turn around tuesday in play here. I just also noticed we are now below our daily pivot which is negative so watch those areas
Levels to watch
I will be watching two levels above to short this-
First level is 902 then 909.50. 909.50 is an excellent risk reward short judging from the present wave count.
First level is 902 then 909.50. 909.50 is an excellent risk reward short judging from the present wave count.
Crude
Why did I take profits on crude yesterday and then said it would go lower. First of all it moved $8.50 which is a $8500 profit on one contract in 5 trading days, secondly I am not 100% confident on the wave count here. If we are logging a wave four which I definitely think we should see lower prices but why guess, just trade it.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Monday, July 6, 2009
For 2009
The DOW is down 6 percent while the Nasdaq is +12%.
Oil I still think it goes lower remember last week Sunday's post of potential target area of 57-61 area if you bought USO $40 PUTS.
Stay on top of that trade it is a mega winner
Oil I still think it goes lower remember last week Sunday's post of potential target area of 57-61 area if you bought USO $40 PUTS.
Stay on top of that trade it is a mega winner
S&P cash
S&P CASH VALUE just broke June's low and now touching the 200 day moving average. Very important to note here that Nasdaq is out performing to the downside.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
875 Very important
875 area should provide some support on the S&P futures as said last week. Remember 875 was significant resistance on the upside and would act as important support coming down. Now if we break this 875 level I would expect us to travel down to 842 area.
We will see soon enough.
We will see soon enough.
Closing trade
Closing Oil trade here this morning from last week + $8.50.
Called that one to the exact top area of $72. Oil trading down $3.50 this morning, take the money and run!!!!!
Another Winner!!
MARKETJEDI
Called that one to the exact top area of $72. Oil trading down $3.50 this morning, take the money and run!!!!!
Another Winner!!
MARKETJEDI
Friday, July 3, 2009
Early early Trade Call
I could be early on this but Looking at some charts I think the TECH stocks that pushed us higher could see a pullback in the next couple of week especially in the slow summer dull drums.
GOOG, APPLE, BIDU all seem like they are read to break down out of their current uptrend formations. I would use options if you are play these and make sure they are in the money.
I will be straight out shorting BIDU anything about the $295 area as I think $300 should be close to the top formation of it pattern formation,
Have a great and safe fourth of July.
MARKETJEDI
GOOG, APPLE, BIDU all seem like they are read to break down out of their current uptrend formations. I would use options if you are play these and make sure they are in the money.
I will be straight out shorting BIDU anything about the $295 area as I think $300 should be close to the top formation of it pattern formation,
Have a great and safe fourth of July.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, July 2, 2009
S&P Futures
896 is the 161.8 extension of yesterday's up move. Watch that level for initial support.
POWER OF WINDOWS DRESSING
Todays movement down most will say it is the bad unemployment numbers but I have to tell you nope. The down movement today is a result of windows dressing, where managers who wanted to look smart bought the leaders of the second quarter to put in their portfolio to show they owned those assets. So why are we down well they just need to own them the last day of the quarter so their clients can see it even if they didn't participate in the upward move of the asset/stock in question.
That one of the main reason I shorted Oil as it was a leading performer for the second quarter. Nice place indeed up almost $5 on that short. These are trends folks and almost always works although nothing is certain the probability rate of these plays are extremely high.
Crude now $66.75
Have a safe fourth of July
That one of the main reason I shorted Oil as it was a leading performer for the second quarter. Nice place indeed up almost $5 on that short. These are trends folks and almost always works although nothing is certain the probability rate of these plays are extremely high.
Crude now $66.75
Have a safe fourth of July
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Nice call on Crude
Hmmmm nice call on crude I thing crude has see it near term top up at that $72 area, we traded down to $68.52 today, definitely got more room to go.
Another winner
Another winner
Caution
Caution the market is trading so tight its VERY VERY hard to catch stuff day to day. Intraday is even tough at the moment. The good thing is, the market is always morphing, so we had 2 years of EXTREME volatility and now we have a few weeks of very low volatility. I've said it 50 times, but key here is to be patient and pick your spots. It'll be interesting to see if we finally do get a nice pullback now that the 2nd quarter Window Dressing is over. Part of the issue with the market, in my view, is that we have so many conflicting signals. This typically would be a good time for a pullin, and we very well could get it, but then again we have earnings period here now which will garner a lot of interest as no one wants to miss another leg up if it might happen.
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