New highs

New Highs being made here after the first hour. Bullish tone being set. look for that 1329 for some reaction

Level to watch for today

Levels to watch are 1324.50 and I have a final projection up to 1329, which will definitely be hit (not necessarily today).
On the downside we have 1320 and 1316 to watch. We in bullish mode here as we get to end of quarter and many money managers will be running to own stocks that performed through the quarter to say they owned it though just for one day (amazing), never the less they should be more of a buying mood since their have been stocks that really outperformed.

So far

So far we are having our usual turn around tuesday. Let's see if they try above yesterday's high which would be bullish development here

Tuesday

So we have been up for the last 7 out of 9 trading days, seem like a rest is due. Today is tuesday and more than likely we will get another turn around phenomenon, I think we are in the phase of a pullback here which will be 100% buy able, I can't stress this enough. Patience is the key here as we are just backing and filling and not doing much but we will soon get the push to new highs.
I am making a list together and will post them of potential longs. Yesterday I posted three short candidates to play on the pullback and I might also add to that GOOG.

Won't be around today so happy trading.

Boring

WOW what a boring day in the markets-

SHORTS

PRU seems like a weak acting strong here- worth a short shot.
MON looking for a short in this one after analyzing the charts.
MED forming a bear flag- looks lower.

New Week-

After doing some work last night, my work show that new highs of the year 2011 is coming up. Any pullback is buy able for now as the charts are show a bullish trend. What I personally going to be doing is accumulation at the next pullback, which I don't think it will be deep but the "talking heads" will tell you to sell and that's when i will buy.
Also Gold and Oil bugs I would 'NOT' be buying those here as I see them due for a pullback before it really trends higher.
The 30yr Bonds is also looking lower.

Books

For those who want to read about technical analysis, below is my favorite reads:

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee

Projection

Seem like they want to trade @ the next projection up at 1308.25.

After today

After today's action it seem to confirm we are in a stealth bull flag on the S&P. One of the reason I have been not so readily to jump on the short side is I believe we will see higher prices but also we are above the 200EMA, which leave me on the side of being long. Now we were looking like a lower high formation could be formed but from this stealth bull flag arising I am feeling like we wont get to test the lower boundaries of the last pullback.
The market is very fluid with all the international news etc so it is prudent to play small if you do.

1255

Ok after doing some work it looks like that's where the market wants to test. At that level I will be a buyers 1/3 size as I expect it to ramp up to new highs into the time projections I have spoken about before- I will more than likely pic on the oil services like XOM and tech like Apple when we get to those level.
We will see soon enough better to take it slow here as we are barely moving.

UP

Futures up huge on the mildly positive news in Japan

No trade day

Today is a no trade day for me as it is quadruple witching.
Market looking higher but we could form a lower high which would set up a trade able short at those resistance levels.

Overnight

So it is 11:40 PM and the futures are much higher. Someone asked me today why do you think we will go higher if I am such long term bear? Well for one, any time we are trading above the 200EMA I have a long bias, while if we are below I have a short bias. So presently we are above the 200EMA so I am not bearish till be break that line in the sand, that's how I analyze stuff in the medium term.
Secondly I still have some higher time projections coming in April and June so I have to respect those projections, so till be are below that 200EMA and past those time projections I have to believe we are in buy the dips mode.

We will see soon enough.

Got to love it

Bought some futures yesterday @ 1260. Still in. taking 1/2 off and riding the rest -

THUNDERBOLT

Thunderbolt the first 4G phone on Verizon arrives tomorrow but pre orders on Wirefly is reported to be 400% higher than the previous record holder. I am dying for a smartphone I might have to check it out, seem it might be a winner.

DOW

The DOW is now just 94 point higher for 2011. Going to be a very interesting year folks but I can say this for sure there will be many shake outs.

Buyer

I would be a small buyer @ 1260 on the futures. for a hold.

Action

Action as I said be careful the volume is thin. Just got a bit heavier and most of the futures were to the sell side.

Be careful

Be careful the S&P Futures are training very thin, that means most of the big guys are not active, easy to swing one way or the other if a big play comes in with an order.

Digestion

Looking for a digestion day today so I don't expect much to happen. Right now it is very easy to say the market has shift to a downward bias but I would wait for confirmation and since we have none so far I am still holding a few longs with minimum risk. One of the main reason I am against a full downward trend here is that I still have some time cycles saying April or June should be a cycle high in the market so that makes me overly cautious on the downside than more than a trade.
We will see as the digestion take effect.

Earthquake

Another after shock in Japan, 6.0+ - Geez, scary stuff.

HIT

Hit the area I mentioned 4:00 am this morning- wow long long night for me.

Futures

Its 4:00 and the futures are getting hit hard.

1252/1254 looks like a support. Very emotional trading going on to the situation in Japan. We must take note that this might be a buying opportunity but don't overstay your welcome.

watch 1278

watch 1278 on the downdraft very important level for a low risk long

Sunday night

So here we are overnight Sunday trading down. One thing I have learned throughout the years is that it take patience to make real money in the markets. Many are saying that the top is in and though I am a longer term bear I don't think the top is in here and actually I will be slowly buying into this downdraft to accumulate. Now if I am wrong I will know right away and take a small loss.

WOW- Interesting

Looks like they want 1291.50 area

Very interesting

1305

Have to close above 1305 to keep positive. We really looking like we are forming a double top pattern so we will see- We never hit the top prices I expected so I am not thinking we have finished with the upside but we are close.

Oil

Looks toppy- maybe the %107 area as a top. As said I dont believe Oil will sink the economy as deflation is the main problem that will sink the economy in my opinion.

1298

That was quick- 1298 wow . got to look at lower support if it doesn't hold

Inside days

Two back to back inside days then we look like we cracked opened on the futures before the open- Back to back inside means consolidation and you should expect expansion, two real issues happen when we have expansion days back to back is 1) we don't know which way we will break and 2) if they break in the overnight session like they are now we can't take advantage of it. Only way to take advantage of this was play futures and even then you would have to guess the direction which you should not. So what do you do? Here you would look for support 1305, then 1298 and take a low risk buy at those levels or just bracket the first hour and play the bounce.

AMZN

Still believe this one heads more south. It got a reflex off the earnings over the entry but looks like it will head to that $160 target I had seen-

Waiting

Still waiting to see were the market tips its hands. Reading up this morning for over 2 hours and everyone thinks we will die if Oil gets to $110. For me I don't think so and for those who think so $110 is just around the corner, maybe even before next month :)
Folks got to remember the first Iraq war Oil was sub $20 a barrel and we thought $50 would bring the world down forever. I said this many times the forces that be wants Oil higher and what they do is push it up and level it there to see if the world adapts to that level. For example when Oil was trading @ $75 and there for awhile I knew 100% the would push it higher, Why? because we adapted to it without any adverse effects. Same this goes here we are above $100 and we have no data to show people stop driving, companies not investing etc, so the forces that be will shoot for much higher prices after we base for awhile here.

Peak oil is here folks or if not coming soon. There is no more cheap oil around and the US Government talking about tapping reserves that wont do a think has the US only has 34 days supply of Oil in reserves. Think about it if all Oil stops following we will be back to the dark ages in 40 days, it is that simple. Reserves don't do anything here in this argument about Oil prices, it is just another bs political, media story.

Turnaround Tuesday

Seem we in for another turnaround tuesday.

Not liking this action

Reason I am not liking this action is I am getting lower projects every time I wait for more candles to form- now I have a lower project of 1298. I am neutral here but I am very weary of going short from what has been happening over the last pullbacks. So when in doubt just relax.

Slice

Sliced thru 1311 like butter :). Not looking good here at all.

1311

Here it is below this level we have 1304/5 area, then 1301.

Interesting indeed. Maybe we really get the pullback to get on board for higher prices

1311

Again if we fail today look for a test to that leave- I don't like this action AT ALL. I am sitting on my hands.

Oil $107

Oil in $107 area wow- pain at the pumps.

1311- Note

Note 1311 was the lows on the futures today. Notice we bounce as this is an important projection in my work. It was a low risk set up to by some futures at that point with a tight stop if you were a future day trader.
Going to be doing some work this weekend if I can get over this mild allergy attack and update monday on some set ups I see.

RVBD looks nice, I got one I have been waiting on...

importance of 1311

If we break this number on a closing basis, I expect to see 1284 next week on the downside

Pattern

Not a nice pattern if we get down to 1311 area on the Futures. It is VERY difficult to trade here as you can see from the last couple of days, everything turns on a dime and therefore you MUST look at longer term patterns to play which in itself is difficult if you don't have huge capital. That being said this pattern looks like a double top but I wont be quick to say it is yet till be put in a few more closings.

Have a great weekend

Crude

I think Crude will head higher BUT in the end it will fall below current prices. Honestly I just can't see where we can sustain higher prices in crude without adversely affecting world economies. Really think the Oil bulls are just too bullish. Yes I am a Oil bull based on peak Oil theory on the long term but I just don't see Oil @ $200 etc as I hear folks screaming about.

Job #s

in 4 minutes

NASDAQ

Nasdaq is show the greatest relative strength of all the indices. If S&P catches up today we will be higher into the close.

Oil

Oil looks like it wants 99.10 area. Anything below $100 is now being considered positive!!

RVBD

Here is a stock that looks like it will get to new highs- I have been watching it but it got away but it should at least test and surprise it 52 week high.

RVBD

Upside

As I said before I strongly believe we will see higher prices and I am trying to narrow down on a time when we will see these highs. Presently I am looking at a high in April or June, so I wouldn't be looking for more than pullbacks to get short before June.
Nasdaq is on a roll here don't be surprised if we hit 3000.

Once again

Once again the bear flags were a big trap. Made note of it yesterday and that's why I cautioned about getting too bearish in a rush as all pullback have been buy able

Bear Flag

Looking at the indices they are all forming bear flags BUT caveat is that we have seen this in this uptrend and the don't pan out. Maybe the North African, middle east problems is just pumping fear into the market for a mild pullback.

Last week

Last week we were looking at the following lower points on the S&P 1299.50, 1289 then 1284, seem they want to hit them. I am going to be doing some hedging here as I am not getting clear signals on the daily chart at all. In the meantime Gold running higher and Oil seem it is slowly but surely going for the $113 I have been speaking about for awhile. Still don't think we roll over and die here but just a breather so we can attack those highs again, IF I am wrong then it will be very early to get on the ride down so not an issue.

ok

Ok 1313 hit- let's see if we bounce

Correction

More like 1312.50 than 1314 for support

1332

So we gapped up into the 1332 which is the 78.6 Fib retracement and we have since sold off. Nice set up but it caught be off guard as this week and the first of the month is usually strong but we are seeing some adverse market reaction with Bernanke's speech.

Next major support is 1314 area

early weakness

Early weakness here surprisingly for the first of the month but looks like the unrest in Libya and rise again in Oil has equity traders on the fence.