On January 8th I posted a chart of the market and it showed the overbought levels of the S&P, when everyone was saying to buy this market. The levels were 940 area and three weeks later we are 120 points lower. I hope folks are using the information here to there advantage because it is very useful and profitable.
Take a look back on that chart and you will see it playing out perfectly, notice how we bounced off that mid teens area in the low 800's on friday. I might do a chart this week looking at the next few weeks.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Worst January ever
Well CNBC just confirmed through Trim Tabs investment research that January 2009 will be the worst January performance for the markets on record. The DOW, S&P, transports, Russell and Nasdaq all included.
As I said last night so does January goes so does the year and this might be a worse year than 2008 for the long term investors in the market. What folks need to realize there are many place to make money in the market but not in the hold fashion buy and hold method. The GDP numbers still morning was the worst in 27 years and I only fear that the contracting numbers will continue for the next 4-6 quarters.
Right now the metal trade is gonzo and seem like they wants higher. Commodities my friends, have been singing on that for weeks but last week I proclaimed this is the place to be, since then gold has dramatically traded higher. The inflation play is my play for the next few years and although it is very early to the game it will prove highly profitable than holding common stocks. Bonds are a short here as they are vastly overpriced and the spread will close soon.
Have a great weekend folks and those still having faith in your common stocks I hope you decide to get out soon because we don't look too good here.
MARKETJEDI
As I said last night so does January goes so does the year and this might be a worse year than 2008 for the long term investors in the market. What folks need to realize there are many place to make money in the market but not in the hold fashion buy and hold method. The GDP numbers still morning was the worst in 27 years and I only fear that the contracting numbers will continue for the next 4-6 quarters.
Right now the metal trade is gonzo and seem like they wants higher. Commodities my friends, have been singing on that for weeks but last week I proclaimed this is the place to be, since then gold has dramatically traded higher. The inflation play is my play for the next few years and although it is very early to the game it will prove highly profitable than holding common stocks. Bonds are a short here as they are vastly overpriced and the spread will close soon.
Have a great weekend folks and those still having faith in your common stocks I hope you decide to get out soon because we don't look too good here.
MARKETJEDI
SKF
How are we doing with SKF. SKF +$18 in 2 days..
Bad bank plan won't save us from the downside in financials.
Bad bank plan won't save us from the downside in financials.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
So goes January so does the Year
Well it is called the January barometer. Market statisticians watch the market activity in January as a major guideline for the upcoming months. The first trading day of January the DOW ended alittle over 9000, today with one day left in the month to trade we closed@ 8149, that's approximately a 10% drop.
The internals are worrisome we had the worst January, Days up/Day down ratio in years and the sector internals are further worrisome. The thing about the January barometer is that the yearly outcome is usually 2-3 times the effects of the January move, so in theory most statisticians might be looking at a 25-30% drop in the market this year. I firmly believe we will be at that low 6000 sometime this year and with more and more weakness showing up daily with companies profits and lay offs it is not out of the question even for the average joe to see.
Yesterday we had a trade call on the blog for SKF, another awesome call. Its up 15% and I think playing SKF alone this year might be a money tree. The financials are DEAD and they are barely holding up here. There is no doubt in my mind that when the administration sometime in the next week or two announce the details of this bad bank 'solution', we will see the cascade selling of the banking stocks to new lows.
Somewhere before we get back to that November lows I think we get a meaningful bounce but as of today we seem long away from that scenario. I hope you all read my post yesterday on what Jim Rogers, Roubini and George Soros have been saying about the markets. If you dont want to listen to me, PLEASE listen to them, they are echoing the same things I have been saying, position yourself and you will be ok and dont forget this massive inflow of cash into the system only has one way out through:INFLATION.
Global job losses are being estimated @ 50 Million this year that's a staggering number, so if you are crazy to think we getting a bargain on stocks here, they will be alot cheaper later.
MARKETJEDI
The internals are worrisome we had the worst January, Days up/Day down ratio in years and the sector internals are further worrisome. The thing about the January barometer is that the yearly outcome is usually 2-3 times the effects of the January move, so in theory most statisticians might be looking at a 25-30% drop in the market this year. I firmly believe we will be at that low 6000 sometime this year and with more and more weakness showing up daily with companies profits and lay offs it is not out of the question even for the average joe to see.
Yesterday we had a trade call on the blog for SKF, another awesome call. Its up 15% and I think playing SKF alone this year might be a money tree. The financials are DEAD and they are barely holding up here. There is no doubt in my mind that when the administration sometime in the next week or two announce the details of this bad bank 'solution', we will see the cascade selling of the banking stocks to new lows.
Somewhere before we get back to that November lows I think we get a meaningful bounce but as of today we seem long away from that scenario. I hope you all read my post yesterday on what Jim Rogers, Roubini and George Soros have been saying about the markets. If you dont want to listen to me, PLEASE listen to them, they are echoing the same things I have been saying, position yourself and you will be ok and dont forget this massive inflow of cash into the system only has one way out through:INFLATION.
Global job losses are being estimated @ 50 Million this year that's a staggering number, so if you are crazy to think we getting a bargain on stocks here, they will be alot cheaper later.
MARKETJEDI
How was that SKF
SKF +$16 on the day. We picked it up yesterday took +$8 and riding the rest here +$12.
Man oh man, these financials are free bounce to short on the bounces. You all can dream that they are going higher but I just see them as shorts when they do rally.
Only winners!!!!!!!!!!!
Man oh man, these financials are free bounce to short on the bounces. You all can dream that they are going higher but I just see them as shorts when they do rally.
Only winners!!!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
BIG MONEY
Well this is why I always talk about BIG money. Big money are the real guy who can make or break a market like George Soros, Jim Roger etc. The two above along with Roubini today said the idea of a bad bank make no sense and proclaimed the use of good money to these weak banks is making the situation worse.
You dont have to listen to me and what I rant on here but listen to the big money, these are the guys that have the handle on the wheels and you should not talk their words lightly.
MARKETJEDI
You dont have to listen to me and what I rant on here but listen to the big money, these are the guys that have the handle on the wheels and you should not talk their words lightly.
MARKETJEDI
Video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/164831/NYUs-Roubini%3A-%22Nowhere-to-Hide%22-from-Global-Slowdown
FED Day
Today is FED day and I think it might be wild. I would not be trading after the first hour till we get the announcement after 2:10 pm EST
The laugh will be on long term investors here
Now I wrote a brief note yesterday on the possibility of talks of a bad bank model by the Government and surely this morning it seems like it is true. I was hoping it wasn't but who am I, flocks this will just prop us up because the average guys will believe all is well and they big guys will sell into this rally.
We should see a squeeze here on the shorts and if we dont well bye bye :). I believe in the next 18 months we will be much much lower. So what do we do here? well you got to go with the flow and if it is long well go long. It will just be another false hope rally that wont do anything but set up a excellent short opportunity for big money. People don't understand that they are goign to need about $60 trillion to buy up all the toxic assets, where are they goign to get this money from??? They are setting the dollar up for on great disaster in the future and as I said in my email out last week, I think when that happens commodities will be the place to be.
One thing I know for sure, this will all end badly indeed. Right here and now I would not be short and most of you know I have been preaching not to initiate shorts here and I expected a bounce, now here comes the bounce so play it long or wait for it to get weak then short it.
Remember what that 883 level, we break that 900 here we come.
MARKETJEDI.
We should see a squeeze here on the shorts and if we dont well bye bye :). I believe in the next 18 months we will be much much lower. So what do we do here? well you got to go with the flow and if it is long well go long. It will just be another false hope rally that wont do anything but set up a excellent short opportunity for big money. People don't understand that they are goign to need about $60 trillion to buy up all the toxic assets, where are they goign to get this money from??? They are setting the dollar up for on great disaster in the future and as I said in my email out last week, I think when that happens commodities will be the place to be.
One thing I know for sure, this will all end badly indeed. Right here and now I would not be short and most of you know I have been preaching not to initiate shorts here and I expected a bounce, now here comes the bounce so play it long or wait for it to get weak then short it.
Remember what that 883 level, we break that 900 here we come.
MARKETJEDI.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
FINANCIALS- Developing News
News developing here after hours that the Obama team is looking into developing a Bad Bank model with the purchase of illiquid assets from the banks. I have no idea how this will develop but this sound like a gateway to Nationalization of the Banks. This could be the bump the bulls need for a multi week rally but who knows. I had been calling for a bounce here and if this plays out as a bounce it will be a multiday-week but will end in the same direction.
I personally would love to see a bounce pan out.
We will see soon enough
I personally would love to see a bounce pan out.
We will see soon enough
FED - New powers
We must remember the FED is not part of the government and giving the FED more powers to save the ailing financial system is asking for trouble. I dont believe we should give the FED anymore power because we will be slave to them in the futures especially when all this money in the system needs to be mopped up with much higher interest rates.
Just another note here folks, the very very rich are loosing money here being long. Yesterday Kirk Kerkorian was cited saying he lived one year too long because he got killed last year. The problem is when you manage so much money it eventually gets too much to be nimble, think about driving a truck compared to driving a car.
Lets we nimble in our investment
Just another note here folks, the very very rich are loosing money here being long. Yesterday Kirk Kerkorian was cited saying he lived one year too long because he got killed last year. The problem is when you manage so much money it eventually gets too much to be nimble, think about driving a truck compared to driving a car.
Lets we nimble in our investment
Grinding higher
Well we grinding higher as we expecting but it is a grind. Slow and painful but might fire up some short covering over the globex highs
Tuesday
Still think we will grind higher here- Watch the commodity based stocks to see how the perform as they look to be the leaders here on the bounce. Remember today and tomorrow is FEd meeting so we might be in no man's lands but we usually have bullish action into FED decisions.
Monday, January 26, 2009
up and down
Up and down day today. We got a gap and go start but they eventually sold into it. Wow I am just getting myself set up next week to rock as I believe after this week we will get some resolve in the markets. Folks I will be blogging few and few as time goes on because of other more pressing endeavors on the fund side. But we will still be here rocking as usual.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Bounce
We just broke the 842 on the S&P spoke about last week. Looks like we are bullish here, we could possible goto 883
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Watch:CME
IF we do bounce in the market watch CME ($169). This stock can easily squeeze to the upside $80-100 if we push higher on any meaningful bounce.
We will see
We will see
Market Outlook
Market seem to be struggling here in January and that's not good for the market outlook for the year. I do think we bounce in here but it will be very weak. We will more than likely see the 6000 level soon the DOW very soon, the fact remains that we can not continue to pop up the dead areas of the market such as the financials and the autos. There is no doubt history will prove this was the worst political decision for this economy.
The stock market I think is in a secular bear market and in this rotation new leaders will emerge. I have a very strong feeling technology wont be the leader in the next phase but that of COMMODITIES and based on this I have been telling people with long term investment strategies to position themselves to the commodity market.
Some great ideas on the commodity market is to invest in countries like Brazil and China. Metals and energy should be excellent long term plays while we rotate out of technology and I am already thinking out longer term maybe 5 years from now as how these will play out.
One side of the story for me to invest in commodities beside from the strong economics behind them in the future is that of the weakening of the US dollar and future trouble with interest rates. I believe the next big disaster for this economy will be foreigners selling our debt and/or not buying as much. This will totally tank the treasuries and send interest rates much higher leading to inflation making commodity prices here seem extraordinarily cheap. I truly believe this is the next great play for the markets. Now I dont have a time line on this but I am sure it will happen in the next 3-7 years as I am doing my cycle time research now.
It is not a time to be in denial folks things are changing and we must change with it investment wise or we will get crushed. It is not a time to invest in consumer technology, financials and the other leading sectors of the last 15 years it wont work. Just remember this 20 years ago the DOW was made of the following companies:
Goodyear, Kodak, GM, Sears, Allied Chemical, Minnesota Mining, Union Carbide, AT&T, Owen-Illinois Glass and I can go on. The point here is if you were 35 years old in 1985 and your financial advisor told you to invest in the strong companies in the DOW, 24 years later to today your portfolio would be ZERO. Yes, it is as simple as that folks, dont get into the idea of buying today's strong companies because we live in a dynamic global world where today leader will be tomorrow's loser so you have to be forward thinking and stay away for what is happening now.
The next phase is definitely going to be a commodity cycle trade. Last year the only sector in the investment market that was up was managed futures and I think this will overtake mutual funds and the sort in year to come in term of investing returns. Fridays strong upward move off the opening weakness was 80% commodity related stocks and that also strengthen my thesis here. Time to change the investment mind set out there and move before you get lost in the decline that is coming.
The stock market I think is in a secular bear market and in this rotation new leaders will emerge. I have a very strong feeling technology wont be the leader in the next phase but that of COMMODITIES and based on this I have been telling people with long term investment strategies to position themselves to the commodity market.
Some great ideas on the commodity market is to invest in countries like Brazil and China. Metals and energy should be excellent long term plays while we rotate out of technology and I am already thinking out longer term maybe 5 years from now as how these will play out.
One side of the story for me to invest in commodities beside from the strong economics behind them in the future is that of the weakening of the US dollar and future trouble with interest rates. I believe the next big disaster for this economy will be foreigners selling our debt and/or not buying as much. This will totally tank the treasuries and send interest rates much higher leading to inflation making commodity prices here seem extraordinarily cheap. I truly believe this is the next great play for the markets. Now I dont have a time line on this but I am sure it will happen in the next 3-7 years as I am doing my cycle time research now.
It is not a time to be in denial folks things are changing and we must change with it investment wise or we will get crushed. It is not a time to invest in consumer technology, financials and the other leading sectors of the last 15 years it wont work. Just remember this 20 years ago the DOW was made of the following companies:
Goodyear, Kodak, GM, Sears, Allied Chemical, Minnesota Mining, Union Carbide, AT&T, Owen-Illinois Glass and I can go on. The point here is if you were 35 years old in 1985 and your financial advisor told you to invest in the strong companies in the DOW, 24 years later to today your portfolio would be ZERO. Yes, it is as simple as that folks, dont get into the idea of buying today's strong companies because we live in a dynamic global world where today leader will be tomorrow's loser so you have to be forward thinking and stay away for what is happening now.
The next phase is definitely going to be a commodity cycle trade. Last year the only sector in the investment market that was up was managed futures and I think this will overtake mutual funds and the sort in year to come in term of investing returns. Fridays strong upward move off the opening weakness was 80% commodity related stocks and that also strengthen my thesis here. Time to change the investment mind set out there and move before you get lost in the decline that is coming.
Friday, January 23, 2009
OK- Bingo
Said it twice this morning they want us higher. We are currently at highs of the days and looks like the Nasdaq is taking charge to the upside.
Watch 842.75 on the S&P on the upside
Watch 842.75 on the S&P on the upside
Be careful
Be careful here if you are short- they are trying to defend that 8000 area on the DOW before lunch
Areas to watch
Levels to watch this morning on the downside. Dow-7845 and S&P-796.25.
VERY IMPORTANT LEVELS EARLIER ON
VERY IMPORTANT LEVELS EARLIER ON
GE- Prediction
Making a prediction here about GE, the big whale in the market. I think GE sees $9 this year. I think they are slowly crumbling under its own weight as the global slowdown grabs at everything in site.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Friday
This weekend I will be writing my usual weekend thoughts but for today, Ge and Microsoft have the futures down before the open. 7000 area here we come and for those in denial the Novemeber lows might be here soon than you think.
Be warned, you are just crazy to try and buy stocks here fr more than a trade, at this point the market has cancer and it is spreading FAST. Their is no bottom here, do we rally sure but how far is the real question.
Be warned, you are just crazy to try and buy stocks here fr more than a trade, at this point the market has cancer and it is spreading FAST. Their is no bottom here, do we rally sure but how far is the real question.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Financials
Again the new today is the total nationalization of the system and I have to be honest that might be the ONLY way to save the systm.m Last year I said the banking system is broken and this is the outcome of it. The system is broken and those who have the capital to save it dont see a viable business plan for the banks, therefore they might as well be called dead.
I dont see a logical way out because personally I believe the financials are all bankrupt so what can they do. In the mean time our FAZ still rocking and I think 100% gainer on that..
MARKETJEDI
I dont see a logical way out because personally I believe the financials are all bankrupt so what can they do. In the mean time our FAZ still rocking and I think 100% gainer on that..
MARKETJEDI
Thursday
Well we got one day bounce after declining for 7 straight days and people again talking about the bottom, just amazing. Remember this, how January goes 85% of the time the year goes. We are presently down on the year so we must bounce hard if the bulls want to have a fighting chance. Tonight we have GOOG and MSFT reporting, I hope they say something good to push us higher.
I still think there is a bounce coming but the longer it takes the less likely and less powerful it will be.
MARKETJEDI
I still think there is a bounce coming but the longer it takes the less likely and less powerful it will be.
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Rebound
Alittle rebound after 7 straight days of selling. No reason to get bullish but bias is up for the rest of day
Today's Action
Nice gap up and a gap fill was so easy. Now it is 12:45 going out of lunch very soon, do we test the yesterday's lows or do we just close the gap again on the upside?
Market Reality
Why don t folks face up to the reality that we are in a bear market? Everyday we lose more and more equity in the markets but yet still people are trying to pick bottoms in the market I just dont understand. Financials are dead money I have been saying this for over a year and everyday I have been proven right. Folks there is a pretty good chance from what I am seeing we hit 5000 area this year on the DOW.
I think playing the market short is the only way to make money in the next 3 years period. Don't get sucked into believing stocks are cheap because I will tell you this they are going to become alot cheaper in deed. Think logically folks all the bank are bankrupt! They don't have enough assets to cover their liabilities of the mortgage fiasco. When the mortgage problems started to surface almost 2.5 years ago I remember saying this thing is going to spill over and affect the whole economy but we had our FED saying oh no it will be contained. We should look back and question all the decisions and speeches these leaders have sold us because they were all wrong or lying.
Get ready for rough two years in the market folks it is just simple as that, in the mean time lets keep rocking.
MARKETJEDI
I think playing the market short is the only way to make money in the next 3 years period. Don't get sucked into believing stocks are cheap because I will tell you this they are going to become alot cheaper in deed. Think logically folks all the bank are bankrupt! They don't have enough assets to cover their liabilities of the mortgage fiasco. When the mortgage problems started to surface almost 2.5 years ago I remember saying this thing is going to spill over and affect the whole economy but we had our FED saying oh no it will be contained. We should look back and question all the decisions and speeches these leaders have sold us because they were all wrong or lying.
Get ready for rough two years in the market folks it is just simple as that, in the mean time lets keep rocking.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
SHORT LIST UPDATE
The short List is rocking and expect it to continue to rock. Remember these are a list of my favorite stock to lose value this year. Some are alreay down nicely since I produced the list last week.
ROCKING!!!!!
ROCKING!!!!!
HOW WE DOING????
How we doing folks???????
FAZ almost a double in 3 weeks, SPG short down 20%, our second special play is rocking, totally rocking.
Called for the nationalization of the financial system and that's exactly what is happening ALL bank stock are going to sub $5, take that to the bank.
THE MARKET IS NOT COMING BACK FOLKS- NOT IN 20 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
FAZ almost a double in 3 weeks, SPG short down 20%, our second special play is rocking, totally rocking.
Called for the nationalization of the financial system and that's exactly what is happening ALL bank stock are going to sub $5, take that to the bank.
THE MARKET IS NOT COMING BACK FOLKS- NOT IN 20 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL UPDATE-FAZ
FAZ now trading @ $84, our entry was $47 average.
Hmmm is that another huge winner??
Hmmm is that another huge winner??
TRADE CALL UPDATE: FAZ
FAZ is up 15% to $72 pre market. Average price was $47 so great play. I still think this one hits $90s and make it a double for us. Take profit as it goes!!!
ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Financials
Financials seem to be taking a big hit pre market. BAC cutting 4k jobs and STT down 30% pre market will hold down the financials (go FAZ). Today is inaugural day and if history is anything to go by inaugural days are usually down days the biggest percentage one being the inauguration of President Reagan.
Reality
The reality of it all is that the market follow trends and one of the greatest trend is of the markets yearly performance to be predicted by it January's performance. The bulls have nine more trading days in the month yo muster up some kind of fight but as of now it seems very very unlikely.
Monday, January 19, 2009
TESTIMONIAL #2- ROCKING!!!
Dear Jedi,
Have been reading your blog since summer 2008 and I have to give you alot of credit for your views and accuracy on the markets. Right now I am fearful on your thoughts of nationalization of the banking system in your notes you wrote from last year. To my dismay I woke up to news of the UK banking system moving into that direction this morning and I had to say wow you got another prediction correct.
I would love to know if you are going to ever have a live trading room so I can follow you live in action, you are just too accurate !!!
G. Burns.
Have been reading your blog since summer 2008 and I have to give you alot of credit for your views and accuracy on the markets. Right now I am fearful on your thoughts of nationalization of the banking system in your notes you wrote from last year. To my dismay I woke up to news of the UK banking system moving into that direction this morning and I had to say wow you got another prediction correct.
I would love to know if you are going to ever have a live trading room so I can follow you live in action, you are just too accurate !!!
G. Burns.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Nationalization
My January 2009 outlook on the market (Jan 4th entry) and November 15 2008 entry had one basis, that of where are we going with the financial crisis. One of my thoughts then was the financial system might ultimately be nationalized to save it from a total collapse seem to be manifesting itself more and more. Thursday BAC announced that they need more funds from the TARP. A 300% increase in trading losses on the ML acquisition has made BAC virtual a bad bank, where will this all end. The problem we have been having as a culture is to think everything must be big, I mean huge, if my house is bigger than yours I am better off, if my SUV is bigger than yours I am safer, if my army is bigger than yours we are more powerful but this is far from the truth. Banks have been on a acquisition binge from the 1991 recession and thought to buy up anything in site to fit in their stable of inefficient entities. The death of Citibank the inventor of the supermarket model of banking is the result of this philosophy. The death of Wachovia buying that subprime lender which was the end all the same and now BAC buying ML will be the end all for them. The fact is these banks in their efforts to become huge conglomerate moved away from 'banking' thus their demise.
Now what is scary is news that the first $250 Billion of the TARP money to the banks is now valued at $180 Billion, yes tax payers they told us we would profits from the TARP but we are now down 30% in 3 months, some money management!!! What I think will happen especially with BAC asking for more money and let me tell you this they wont be the last is that the $700 billion will be a drop in the bucket. I did some research last year and I said it plain as day the problem might be a 35-50 Trillion problem so what can $700 Billion do? It is serious folks that money will be 100% lost and the only way in the long run to stop the bleeding might be to nationalize the banking system. As I said months ago it has already started in Europe and I see it highly likely happening here.
Warning to those who own bank stocks, they are dead money! and if the government nationalize the system OR comes close to nationalizing it they will have no value, so a complete wipe out of shareholders' value (remember AIG). On that note I will like to explain something to everyone, we are in a BEAR market and in bear markets we dont have 'cheap' stocks. I continue to hear the talking head on tv talk about stocks are cheap, there are no cheap stock in a bear market only in a bull market, PERIOD. In a bear market cheap stocks gets cheaper and these folks who will tell you about P/E ratio etc are idiots because that doesn't matter in a bear market is it is all about Psychology of the markets, nothing else. The market is made up of buyers and selling and it is a virtual mind game. Have you ever heard about the psychology of BIDDING? That's what made EBAY huge, let say you have an items which is really worth $100 and you get 25 people bidding on it, what happens the human nature element of want takes over the logical process and people Bid up an item worth $100 to $200 and that's how it goes. Now it is really worth $200, nope but the process of BIDDING pushed up the price to $200, so now they say the market value of it is $200. This is the same reasoning being all bubbles and bust.
Think about it same thing happened in real estate you heard everyone making money and people saying oh it is so easy and it is sure bet. Hehehehe ask those folks now how much of their net worth have been evaporated in the real estate downturn. What happened was the same BIDDDING phenomenon trying to out bid based on Human psychology than rational thinking. Oh well I am ranting away as usual, but my point is FINANCIALS are dead, period end of story, go FAZ( Our long term play)
Now last night I had to laugh out loud and I mean really loud, CNBC premiered a new show about investing through options and I had to watch it because everyone here knows I love options, hehehhe. It was the worst show ever on CNBC! One dude was actually saying GOOG IS CHEAP, WHAT!!, GOOG is dead and I guarantee GOOG will be sub 200 by end of summer easily and will be $150 within the next 18 months, I mean why is CNBC promoting another show to viewers on HOW TO LOSE YOUR MONIES FAST.
I am very tired and just going to rest this weekend and will be back on Monday night for the weekly update so talk to you then.
MARKETJEDI
Now what is scary is news that the first $250 Billion of the TARP money to the banks is now valued at $180 Billion, yes tax payers they told us we would profits from the TARP but we are now down 30% in 3 months, some money management!!! What I think will happen especially with BAC asking for more money and let me tell you this they wont be the last is that the $700 billion will be a drop in the bucket. I did some research last year and I said it plain as day the problem might be a 35-50 Trillion problem so what can $700 Billion do? It is serious folks that money will be 100% lost and the only way in the long run to stop the bleeding might be to nationalize the banking system. As I said months ago it has already started in Europe and I see it highly likely happening here.
Warning to those who own bank stocks, they are dead money! and if the government nationalize the system OR comes close to nationalizing it they will have no value, so a complete wipe out of shareholders' value (remember AIG). On that note I will like to explain something to everyone, we are in a BEAR market and in bear markets we dont have 'cheap' stocks. I continue to hear the talking head on tv talk about stocks are cheap, there are no cheap stock in a bear market only in a bull market, PERIOD. In a bear market cheap stocks gets cheaper and these folks who will tell you about P/E ratio etc are idiots because that doesn't matter in a bear market is it is all about Psychology of the markets, nothing else. The market is made up of buyers and selling and it is a virtual mind game. Have you ever heard about the psychology of BIDDING? That's what made EBAY huge, let say you have an items which is really worth $100 and you get 25 people bidding on it, what happens the human nature element of want takes over the logical process and people Bid up an item worth $100 to $200 and that's how it goes. Now it is really worth $200, nope but the process of BIDDING pushed up the price to $200, so now they say the market value of it is $200. This is the same reasoning being all bubbles and bust.
Think about it same thing happened in real estate you heard everyone making money and people saying oh it is so easy and it is sure bet. Hehehehe ask those folks now how much of their net worth have been evaporated in the real estate downturn. What happened was the same BIDDDING phenomenon trying to out bid based on Human psychology than rational thinking. Oh well I am ranting away as usual, but my point is FINANCIALS are dead, period end of story, go FAZ( Our long term play)
Now last night I had to laugh out loud and I mean really loud, CNBC premiered a new show about investing through options and I had to watch it because everyone here knows I love options, hehehhe. It was the worst show ever on CNBC! One dude was actually saying GOOG IS CHEAP, WHAT!!, GOOG is dead and I guarantee GOOG will be sub 200 by end of summer easily and will be $150 within the next 18 months, I mean why is CNBC promoting another show to viewers on HOW TO LOSE YOUR MONIES FAST.
I am very tired and just going to rest this weekend and will be back on Monday night for the weekly update so talk to you then.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, January 16, 2009
Nice day
Pretty great day for traders like myself. Came into the day with a huge gap up that I shorted into and then bought after noon on the notion that we would see higher prices. Remember if you read the blog and remember the riddle there was one line jan 15/16, on either of those days I expected a low of the week, which HAPPENED.
Now we have a three day weekend, so we will see how we do next tuesday, more than likely it will be a positive day and I will write a note on why I say this over the weekend.
Well bye for now and keep on ROCKING. How is our FAZ play doing??? Still think we can get a double on that long term but take profits as it goes.
MARKETJEDI
Now we have a three day weekend, so we will see how we do next tuesday, more than likely it will be a positive day and I will write a note on why I say this over the weekend.
Well bye for now and keep on ROCKING. How is our FAZ play doing??? Still think we can get a double on that long term but take profits as it goes.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Results-Blog
We are in the second week of trading and the blog has been on FIRE!!!
SSO calls made 70%
GS short made 20%
Ebay calls made 18%
SPG calls up over 400% YES 400%
SPG short +20%
FAZ +32%
All these results are just since January 2 2009.
ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!
SSO calls made 70%
GS short made 20%
Ebay calls made 18%
SPG calls up over 400% YES 400%
SPG short +20%
FAZ +32%
All these results are just since January 2 2009.
ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!
SHORT LIST
The short list is a list of 7 stock I believe will be substantially lower in 2009.
The 2009 short list is up for purchase. Last year list which was unbelievable.
Included:
Citibank short $30 now $4
Wachovia short $28 now $0
FNM short $34 now 69 cents
GOOG short $550 now $297
AAPL short $190 now $70.
UYG short now $4.28
If you even just played one of these you would have been up huge.
Now the 2009 list is going to ROCK.
The 2009 short list is up for purchase. Last year list which was unbelievable.
Included:
Citibank short $30 now $4
Wachovia short $28 now $0
FNM short $34 now 69 cents
GOOG short $550 now $297
AAPL short $190 now $70.
UYG short now $4.28
If you even just played one of these you would have been up huge.
Now the 2009 list is going to ROCK.
SPECIAL PLAY
Can this be right!!!!!!! The new special play $13 Feb options are up 20% since the open.
Hope you guys in.
Hope you guys in.
Our PLAYS
Our PLAYS are up huge SPG puts are up over 400% in one week!!!!
Stock is down 20% if you took the short in one week!!!
our long term play FAZ is now up 32%!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS
Stock is down 20% if you took the short in one week!!!
our long term play FAZ is now up 32%!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS
Sick
Guys are I am not 100% today- So just try and stay small if I dont put up any guidance.
Good Luck
Good Luck
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
TESTIMONIAL- ROCKING!!!
Testimonial by a loyal fan:
I have been following your blog every single day since February,2008. I really like your market thoughts, advice and most of all I like the unbelievable TRADE CALLS. By just following your trade calls I am up 325% in 2008. In particular I want to highlight the trade calls you made on FNM, C, SKF, TWM, GOOG, GS and of course RIMM. In a year when some of the top financial companies have disappeared, I cannot thank you enough for helping me make so much profit. Thank you again for telling the truth and nothing but the truth.
AWESOME
I have been following your blog every single day since February,2008. I really like your market thoughts, advice and most of all I like the unbelievable TRADE CALLS. By just following your trade calls I am up 325% in 2008. In particular I want to highlight the trade calls you made on FNM, C, SKF, TWM, GOOG, GS and of course RIMM. In a year when some of the top financial companies have disappeared, I cannot thank you enough for helping me make so much profit. Thank you again for telling the truth and nothing but the truth.
AWESOME
SHORT LIST
Well the 2009 short list is up for purchase. Last year list which was unbelievable.
Included:
Citibank short $30 now $4
Wachovia short $28 now $0
FNM short $34 now 69 cents
GOOG short $550 now $297
AAPL short $190 now $70.
UYG short now $4.28
If you even just played one of these you would have been up huge.
Now the 2009 list is going to ROCK.
ONLY WINNERS HERE
Included:
Citibank short $30 now $4
Wachovia short $28 now $0
FNM short $34 now 69 cents
GOOG short $550 now $297
AAPL short $190 now $70.
UYG short now $4.28
If you even just played one of these you would have been up huge.
Now the 2009 list is going to ROCK.
ONLY WINNERS HERE
TRADE CALL-SPY
This is only for day traders- not option players !!!! Dont play it if you not a daytrader, this trade might be for 30 minutes only or so.
TRADE is buying SPY on a trade to 829 on the futures just for a scalp.
BE warned only for day traders!!!
TRADE is buying SPY on a trade to 829 on the futures just for a scalp.
BE warned only for day traders!!!
844
We just hit our downside target of 844, actually went to 843.75. Lets see if the bulls will buy down here
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Forecast- Targets
Ok- Here it goes
The Monday -Tuesday range has now been established so we can form some additional targets.....ON the downside we get
844
830
on the upside we have 900 and 914
The monthly has a lower target of 848 so if we see prices in the 844 - 848 it may get interesting..
I'm leaning towards the upside breakout though as we have tried to break down the last two days below the longer term composites high volume node and we haven't been able to do it. We have a weekly pivot up at 903. On the way up I'll be watching the 884 area.
The Monday -Tuesday range has now been established so we can form some additional targets.....ON the downside we get
844
830
on the upside we have 900 and 914
The monthly has a lower target of 848 so if we see prices in the 844 - 848 it may get interesting..
I'm leaning towards the upside breakout though as we have tried to break down the last two days below the longer term composites high volume node and we haven't been able to do it. We have a weekly pivot up at 903. On the way up I'll be watching the 884 area.
Fund Managers have no clue 95% of them
State pensions funds are suffering $865 Billion in pension-fund losses. The effects of this will be huge as most managers are living in the buy and hold mentally still. Well bye bye to those funds because they are gone to money heaven. Hmm what will happen ? what will they do ?
Riddle????
Well only two persons emailed me about the riddle. Funny it was the forecast of the market for the next few days and it has been accurate so far. I have to tell you folks this, a lot of you want to be spoon feed and investing is not a spoon feed thing. Some of you guys are so lazy to learn but then I hear it over and over that you want to become successful traders. Well there is no holy grail for trading but only reward from hard work and picking a strategy that works.
Back to the riddle. The last line said 860-8, 848. Yesterday the low was 860.25 and we ended the futures @ 868. Today we also ended the futures at 868, pretty good prediction. 90% of the volume today was traded in that 860-868 area. Now try and figure out the rest- if you guys has even try you would have had direction in the market yesterday and today.
MARKETJEDI
Back to the riddle. The last line said 860-8, 848. Yesterday the low was 860.25 and we ended the futures @ 868. Today we also ended the futures at 868, pretty good prediction. 90% of the volume today was traded in that 860-868 area. Now try and figure out the rest- if you guys has even try you would have had direction in the market yesterday and today.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, January 12, 2009
Any commodity traders out there???
If you are a commodity trader I have a TRADE CALL just for you folks. Will post it tonight or tomorrow.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Citibank
Been saying it since Citibank was @$30. Citibank is DEAD. Don't buy financials that why my long term play is FAZ, which I am now up on since I added to the initial $55 buy. Average is $47 so I am up on it now. Lets see how this goes with citibank and the financials. Early day for me folks, talk to you tomorrow.
Go FAZ!!!
Go FAZ!!!
Special Play torture-SPG short
Ok for those who didn't get the special play I will tell you now since those who got it are up 250% on the options and up more than $7 on the short itself.
The play was short SPG. Some bought the $50 january put options for $2.10, now @$6.80. Very nice, I would be taking some profits along here since it was a fast mover.
Can we say another winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The play was short SPG. Some bought the $50 january put options for $2.10, now @$6.80. Very nice, I would be taking some profits along here since it was a fast mover.
Can we say another winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Special Play- Options +200%
It is down 6% today. shorted @ 50.2 now trading @ 44.10. Nice winner for a two day play.
The options are up 200%
The options are up 200%
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Classes
Guys I am getting alot of question on classes and I just want to get it clear here.
1) email me which date(s) you are interested in doing a class and I will slot you in. Classes are only on sunday, tuesday and thursday, starting next week sunday between 7-9pm
2) classes are for one hour
3) classes are one on one. As I don't believe in group classes as everyone is on a different knowledge level and experience and also have different objectives.
4) you must have yahoo, msn or skype IM, as classes will be conducted in a private room with voice if necessary.
5)Classes will cover whatever topic you want to cover in terms of markets, trading techniques, how to read charts, what instruments to trade, money management etc.
6)All classes will conclude with one Marketjedi's TRADE CALL, just for you, based on the topic of the class.
7)Pricing for the classes are on the blog.
8)I do plan on offering coaching but my coaching will be so detailed it has to be offered real time during market hours and will more than likely last one whole day or two.
Folks I am offering a bargain here for classes and coaching. I have been looking at various sites and they are offering classes and coaching from $150 an hour to $750 an hour.
Email me with any questions.
palmer@palmerplace.us or marketjedi@gmail.com.
1) email me which date(s) you are interested in doing a class and I will slot you in. Classes are only on sunday, tuesday and thursday, starting next week sunday between 7-9pm
2) classes are for one hour
3) classes are one on one. As I don't believe in group classes as everyone is on a different knowledge level and experience and also have different objectives.
4) you must have yahoo, msn or skype IM, as classes will be conducted in a private room with voice if necessary.
5)Classes will cover whatever topic you want to cover in terms of markets, trading techniques, how to read charts, what instruments to trade, money management etc.
6)All classes will conclude with one Marketjedi's TRADE CALL, just for you, based on the topic of the class.
7)Pricing for the classes are on the blog.
8)I do plan on offering coaching but my coaching will be so detailed it has to be offered real time during market hours and will more than likely last one whole day or two.
Folks I am offering a bargain here for classes and coaching. I have been looking at various sites and they are offering classes and coaching from $150 an hour to $750 an hour.
Email me with any questions.
palmer@palmerplace.us or marketjedi@gmail.com.
Deflation and the market
I have been singing on the notion of deflation for a couple of months now. I have a few readers who email me and tell me gold is going to $1500 and higher but I always end by saying to them this is a different time and we are in a wealth destruction cycle, deflation as they call it.
This problem with deflation is that you can't buy ANYTHING as all assets will decline in value. No where to hide except for those who know how to trade highly sophisticated instruments. I keep on stressing Buy and hold is Over folks if you don't released this thought of buy and hold all your retirement and kids college funds will be eatten up by deflation and that's just a fact. I know I will get some remarks as usual, like who is this idiot again and so forth but I notice all those who write when I state something and then it comes true never write back and say you were so right. Well I dont need confirmation because I stand by my analysis whenever I make my statements.
Now where do I stand on the markets? Well I thought for awhile we would get a santa rally and we did get one but it was so muted you would have never known if you weren't a trader:) I think some are waiting on Obama's inauguration to trade up stocks and yes it might be a possibility but I am saying this now it wont last! Did anyone just see we are at a 16 year high on unemployment? I thought the $700 Billion bailout was suppose to help us? Well we are 1/2 way through those monies and there is no relief in sight. I said form the beginning to bail out dying industries is just crazy, banking, automotive industries wont be the leaders when we get out of this downturn so why on earth bail them out, it is just crazy. It shows that we the voters have no powers and it is the lobbyist who control what is done. The political system is totally messed up but up till now no one cared as long as they were making money. Now that the powers that be are now loosing money I bet in the next 2-6 years politics will change dramatically in this country. One thing I learn living in this country is do anything but mess with their money as everything comes down to the dollar and nothing else. There are no principles, no loyalty, no humanity, just the almighty dollar. Imagine they stop people from praying and saying God but there you go look on your money and you see "in God we trust" :), very ironic to me sometimes how they use God on the money of a nation. Jesus said give unto ceasar what is ceasar's, and that interpret God and money has no room together.
But I regress as usual. I dont have much positive to say on the markets but to say you folks better listen and find alternative method than buying and holding regular stocks because you will be in a world of pain. DOW 4500 is on the way in the not too distant future.
Lets see if we get a pivot point in the market here, I hope we do so some people can cash out or we will be hitting that 2008 lows sooner than anyone expected.
MARKETJEDI
This problem with deflation is that you can't buy ANYTHING as all assets will decline in value. No where to hide except for those who know how to trade highly sophisticated instruments. I keep on stressing Buy and hold is Over folks if you don't released this thought of buy and hold all your retirement and kids college funds will be eatten up by deflation and that's just a fact. I know I will get some remarks as usual, like who is this idiot again and so forth but I notice all those who write when I state something and then it comes true never write back and say you were so right. Well I dont need confirmation because I stand by my analysis whenever I make my statements.
Now where do I stand on the markets? Well I thought for awhile we would get a santa rally and we did get one but it was so muted you would have never known if you weren't a trader:) I think some are waiting on Obama's inauguration to trade up stocks and yes it might be a possibility but I am saying this now it wont last! Did anyone just see we are at a 16 year high on unemployment? I thought the $700 Billion bailout was suppose to help us? Well we are 1/2 way through those monies and there is no relief in sight. I said form the beginning to bail out dying industries is just crazy, banking, automotive industries wont be the leaders when we get out of this downturn so why on earth bail them out, it is just crazy. It shows that we the voters have no powers and it is the lobbyist who control what is done. The political system is totally messed up but up till now no one cared as long as they were making money. Now that the powers that be are now loosing money I bet in the next 2-6 years politics will change dramatically in this country. One thing I learn living in this country is do anything but mess with their money as everything comes down to the dollar and nothing else. There are no principles, no loyalty, no humanity, just the almighty dollar. Imagine they stop people from praying and saying God but there you go look on your money and you see "in God we trust" :), very ironic to me sometimes how they use God on the money of a nation. Jesus said give unto ceasar what is ceasar's, and that interpret God and money has no room together.
But I regress as usual. I dont have much positive to say on the markets but to say you folks better listen and find alternative method than buying and holding regular stocks because you will be in a world of pain. DOW 4500 is on the way in the not too distant future.
Lets see if we get a pivot point in the market here, I hope we do so some people can cash out or we will be hitting that 2008 lows sooner than anyone expected.
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, January 10, 2009
SPECIAL PLAY
I just got an email from someone who played the 'SPECIAL PLAY'. They played it through options which they got the January $50 puts @ $2.10 yesterday and today they ended @$4/4.30, that's a 100% winner in a day.
Folks take that to the bank but as I said in the the email I think it goes lower much lower.
Great trading on that one whoever got it. I think that might be my FNM for this year :), nah I have another, STAY TUNED!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Folks take that to the bank but as I said in the the email I think it goes lower much lower.
Great trading on that one whoever got it. I think that might be my FNM for this year :), nah I have another, STAY TUNED!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Friday, January 9, 2009
Classes-
I am ready to take classes starting next week thursday as I am finished with what I need to do before I start preparing for classes. If you would like classes please email me what you would like to discuss or learn about and available time slots/
I will be available for 2 hours each evening from 7-9 PM, on tuesday, thursday and Sundays. Each class will last for one hour and will be personalized for each student. You wont get the same class for all like other places on the web. Also classes will have a minor cost and will include our famous Trade call at the conclusion of the class.
Please email marketjedi@gmail.com or palmer@palmerplace.us for scheduling and pricing.
I will be available for 2 hours each evening from 7-9 PM, on tuesday, thursday and Sundays. Each class will last for one hour and will be personalized for each student. You wont get the same class for all like other places on the web. Also classes will have a minor cost and will include our famous Trade call at the conclusion of the class.
Please email marketjedi@gmail.com or palmer@palmerplace.us for scheduling and pricing.
Special Play
The special play given out by email is rocking. It is down 6%+ today. Nice short play
ROCKING on a boring day in the market.
MARKETJEDI
ROCKING on a boring day in the market.
MARKETJEDI
Unemployment rate now 7.2%
7.2% highest since 1993. Just imagine what it is in the weak states and for minorities. Definitely looks like 9% unemployment is not out of the question.
Job Numbers
Job numbers in an hour. I am hearing anywhere from 450k to 1 million. The one thing I know the numbers are not real. Any number that comes out you can add 200k to it to even get close to the real number and that's where I stand. I have no clue what the numbers will be and I am not trying to guess.
All I want is a rally to 10000 so I can short the hell out of it.
All I want is a rally to 10000 so I can short the hell out of it.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
LONG TERM
Whenever you hear the talking heads telling you new bull market and you must buy stocks, PLEASE just look at this chart and you will be good. Longer term I think this is what will happen. I hope it doesn't but the technicals never lie.
SPX Chart
For those who dont know there is two S&P prices. One is cash and the other is futures. Experienced traders who the futures value while the cash price is what you would see on CNBC or in your local paper the next morning.
They is usually a difference of a couple of points, so those who asking about where did I get that 906.75 closing from then obviously you aren't and experienced trader :). No bashing but the cash price and future price are different.
Here is a chart of the cash close. Do we trade high in the channel of we fall out of bed. That's for you to decide from the chart!!!
Have a great day tomorrow. I dont think I will be posting on Friday, very tired this week, need some rest.
They is usually a difference of a couple of points, so those who asking about where did I get that 906.75 closing from then obviously you aren't and experienced trader :). No bashing but the cash price and future price are different.
Here is a chart of the cash close. Do we trade high in the channel of we fall out of bed. That's for you to decide from the chart!!!
Have a great day tomorrow. I dont think I will be posting on Friday, very tired this week, need some rest.
Warming up
We are just warming up here folks, really just a snap shot of what we doing. Have one KILLER play for the ages with the Inauguration. If you think we hit the market exact in the last few days especially today calling the exact closing price of the s&p futures 906 at 8:30 am, YOU AINT SEEN NOTHING YET.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Anyone taking NOTICE
We just closed around 906 area. Hmm where did you get that number from???? Folks you getting a valuable tool in this blog. I mean we calling closing levels and where market is going to turn exactly. Where else you getting this>?>?
WE CLOSED EXACTLY @ 906.75 on the futures.
JUST AMAZING, we called that number 8:30 am this morning
WE CLOSED EXACTLY @ 906.75 on the futures.
JUST AMAZING, we called that number 8:30 am this morning
Nice
Notice we went one tick to that 906 number today. Wow just accurate! We couldn't even break it so what does that tell us with two hours left in the day. Well expect lower prices and a test of the overnight lows if we dont break that 906 higher
Boring day very boring, they waiting on tomorrow numbers
Boring day very boring, they waiting on tomorrow numbers
Line in the Sand today
Most important number today will be 906.75 on the S&P. We are currently going to open below it so keep an eye on it
OMG We so ROCKING
All those who got the special email last night on the special stock play must be amazed. Walmart is down $5 this morning and that is a sure push for that special play. Stay tuned !!!
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Confused? or people don't have a clue
So I just watched fast money and reading a couple sites and blogs online and all these people crack me up. These guys were so bullish yesterday and looking for longs now after today's action they all singing for shorts, :) what is the story ??? :). This is hilarious. No one has a clue they just guess and HOPE they are right. I dont HOPE, it is just a four letter word just like the F word :)
These are the same people telling you to buy stocks and HOPE they go up , oh ok have fun doing that and tell me how you doing or have been doing, crazy.
I hope I wake up tomorrow and see my lawn growing money :)
I hope I never get sick again :)
I hope I can travel to every country on this earth :)
I hope I can have a unicorn as a pet :)
I hope I can find the keys to my Ferrari :)
I hope the bank finds my Billions I told them I have at my account there :)
Yep HOPE is something for the weak. DO or DO NOT!!! no hope, just like they hope for peace in the middle east for years or hope for no famine, or hope for no more suffering. DO! or DO NOT! that's all it is about.
Now DO yourself a favor and learn and stop listening to the idiots like Cramer. I would tell you DO NOT watch CNBC but I do for the jokes and you should watch it for that alone too. Can you imagine the CEO of this Indian software firm was on CNBC like two months ago, now he is admitting 90% of the sales and cash is false. Way to go CNBC on excellence in reporting this great firm to your viewers months ago and I bet many invested in their stock because hey he is on CNBC :), now the stock is down 90% n a day, well done. CNBC and the rest of them deserve a cell beside Madoff, just unreal. Oh well who am I? I am just a POOR technical analyst!!!!!
MARKETJEDI.
P.S. I hope I have real Jedi powers. I will try them out tomorrow
These are the same people telling you to buy stocks and HOPE they go up , oh ok have fun doing that and tell me how you doing or have been doing, crazy.
I hope I wake up tomorrow and see my lawn growing money :)
I hope I never get sick again :)
I hope I can travel to every country on this earth :)
I hope I can have a unicorn as a pet :)
I hope I can find the keys to my Ferrari :)
I hope the bank finds my Billions I told them I have at my account there :)
Yep HOPE is something for the weak. DO or DO NOT!!! no hope, just like they hope for peace in the middle east for years or hope for no famine, or hope for no more suffering. DO! or DO NOT! that's all it is about.
Now DO yourself a favor and learn and stop listening to the idiots like Cramer. I would tell you DO NOT watch CNBC but I do for the jokes and you should watch it for that alone too. Can you imagine the CEO of this Indian software firm was on CNBC like two months ago, now he is admitting 90% of the sales and cash is false. Way to go CNBC on excellence in reporting this great firm to your viewers months ago and I bet many invested in their stock because hey he is on CNBC :), now the stock is down 90% n a day, well done. CNBC and the rest of them deserve a cell beside Madoff, just unreal. Oh well who am I? I am just a POOR technical analyst!!!!!
MARKETJEDI.
P.S. I hope I have real Jedi powers. I will try them out tomorrow
Tomorrow
Tomorrow I am hoping to get some kind of retracement as we totally opened lower and headed south today. Number to watch if we go higher should be 920 then 924.50. Do we get there? maybe, maybe not but the best scenario tomorrow would be a gap up and then higher in this area then we test today's lows.
I hope that helps.
MARKETJEDI
I hope that helps.
MARKETJEDI
Prediction
Not a good one for most of you but 2009 will be a turning point down for the markets, not 2008. It will be 2016/2017 before the financial market market a substantial bottom and begin a true bullish phase. All of this is not hot air but from studies of cycles in the market.
Will this happen????
Will this happen . Yes that's 500 on the S&P before middle of 2010. possible 430 in the 2012-2013 timeframe
Market hopes dims
Short note tonight as I am going to bed early because I feel alittle sick. Today I noticed something and I just want to point it out. Today was the first day that Obama has come on tv and the market didn't rally! that's a sign about the reality the market tries to hide from.
Market believe Obama will save us and I am sorry folks, did you see the numbers this morning terrible and I believe the unemployment numbers on friday will be worst than expected too. For all those who are taking the state of the economy for granted and think we are in a bottoming process you are going to be very very sad when the DOW is around 4800 this year. You can all try and fight the trend but sorry you 401k will be wiped out, unemployment will be higher and we will be in the worst financial crisis in history PERIOD.
Layoffs are increasing at an alarming rate and the news is over China there is a slow civil unrest because workers are panicking because no work can be found. It is definitely going to get worst but the good think traders can make money in up or down markets yippppeeee.
Trade calls and blog mention items are rocking and I am telling you this tomorrow we will ROCK again.
I have a bunch of plays to make here right before Obama which are going to be killers and I expect February we will get some huge plays off the first days of him in office, we going to rock hard for 2009 but you need to be on board the plane so please get your tickets and I am only accepting first class :)
I am sending out a private trade call to a few people tonight who I have spoken to about a situation in the market via email or IM. You guys look out for it.
MARKETJEDI
Market believe Obama will save us and I am sorry folks, did you see the numbers this morning terrible and I believe the unemployment numbers on friday will be worst than expected too. For all those who are taking the state of the economy for granted and think we are in a bottoming process you are going to be very very sad when the DOW is around 4800 this year. You can all try and fight the trend but sorry you 401k will be wiped out, unemployment will be higher and we will be in the worst financial crisis in history PERIOD.
Layoffs are increasing at an alarming rate and the news is over China there is a slow civil unrest because workers are panicking because no work can be found. It is definitely going to get worst but the good think traders can make money in up or down markets yippppeeee.
Trade calls and blog mention items are rocking and I am telling you this tomorrow we will ROCK again.
I have a bunch of plays to make here right before Obama which are going to be killers and I expect February we will get some huge plays off the first days of him in office, we going to rock hard for 2009 but you need to be on board the plane so please get your tickets and I am only accepting first class :)
I am sending out a private trade call to a few people tonight who I have spoken to about a situation in the market via email or IM. You guys look out for it.
MARKETJEDI
Here is where the fun begins
Here the fun begins folks. January has always a barometer of the year in the market. The formula is whatever the market does in the first 6 days and consequently the first month is usually where the market goes in that year. Now where have we gone? NOWHERE. We are the exact level we ended Dec 31 2008, so we are flat.
So we have to carefully watch the rest of the month to see if we push high, lower or stay flat. Now remember we are going to get alittle off centered because of the Inauguration so we must take that into account.
We will soon see and already we have been DEAD on, where the market was/is going. We nailed today being a down day and we ended at the magic 904 level that was mentioned on the blog yesterday, HOW ACCURATE WE CAN GET, LEVEL AND DATE, oh well! secrets of the jedi force :)
Also DEATH to GS and DEATH to the infrastructure plays that were mentioned last night we called it!!!!
For those who don't believe in the blog and the opportunities it brings oh well, it is all here free to read and profit from. Today would have been a rocking day if you read the blog last night, totally ROCK.
Stay tuned for more....Lots more..........
So we have to carefully watch the rest of the month to see if we push high, lower or stay flat. Now remember we are going to get alittle off centered because of the Inauguration so we must take that into account.
We will soon see and already we have been DEAD on, where the market was/is going. We nailed today being a down day and we ended at the magic 904 level that was mentioned on the blog yesterday, HOW ACCURATE WE CAN GET, LEVEL AND DATE, oh well! secrets of the jedi force :)
Also DEATH to GS and DEATH to the infrastructure plays that were mentioned last night we called it!!!!
For those who don't believe in the blog and the opportunities it brings oh well, it is all here free to read and profit from. Today would have been a rocking day if you read the blog last night, totally ROCK.
Stay tuned for more....Lots more..........
904
904 just hit - said that would be the downside target for today- MAN BLOG ON FIRE. This is how we do it .
BYE BYE GS now +$6 in a day.
BYE BYE GS now +$6 in a day.
Wednesday Morning
Well we are down pre market on the news from ADP and lower employment and Intel's disappoint pre earnings report. As I wrote in last night notes 922 was important in the overnight session and we broke it this morning in the overnight session, BANG on spot again. Now watch that 904 mentioned on the downside, too much complacency here folks don't get caught up in it.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Important to Note
We have not touched the weekly pivot this week yet. Currently @904 on the S&P. I expect us to touch this tomorrow or thursday so look for a down day somewhere here. I also have an upside target of 952 which is still validated by the charts.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Overnight
For those who watch the overnight session, watch 922 on the S&P. Also after the close news of reduced earnings on BAC and AA, two heavy weights in the markets. I am about to step into some GS short here for the long term as I feel this sucker is DEAD. I got some short today @ $91 and will add on a move up higher, but as of now I am short 1/3 shares of it.
Infrastructure plays are getting a bounce here, which I kind of expected if Obama won but who knows what will happen with the limited budget on the table. These stock can crash and burn if the new administration switches on massive infrastructure building, keep those on your radar for the rest of the year. These stocks I predict will be the ones to watch this year as the agricultural stocks were the ones to watch last year.
Infrastructure plays are getting a bounce here, which I kind of expected if Obama won but who knows what will happen with the limited budget on the table. These stock can crash and burn if the new administration switches on massive infrastructure building, keep those on your radar for the rest of the year. These stocks I predict will be the ones to watch this year as the agricultural stocks were the ones to watch last year.
Fibonacci set up
Someone asked me today what Fibonacci numbers I use:
Extension I use 161.8, 261.80 and to the extreme 423.6
Retracement I use 38.2, 61.8, 78.6, 100.
Extension I use 161.8, 261.80 and to the extreme 423.6
Retracement I use 38.2, 61.8, 78.6, 100.
Thoughts
The chart below show me one concerning issue on the upside. Everytime we hit those highs we get a wave of downside selling pressure on the 15 minute, something to watch out for the rest of the week. See those two large red down candles, they mean something.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Appreciation
Folks, I know there are a number of readers of the blog as I have received emails from many of you about how your portfolios are doing. I really appreciate those who sent their support and encouragement to continue the blog. I must say although this is serious for me to give my thoughts on the market as I hate to see people lose money, the blog is more of entertainment for me as it is not my job. I am not a professional blogger but I decided along time ago that I would help people invest wisely where I can and not letting them fall pray to so called 'investment advisors' and mutual fund companies.
This blog is just a snap shot of what my partner and I do on a daily basis. Don't believe when there is no plays on the blog we aren't trading the heck out of the market. We are often up from 2:30 am and winding down around 6:30PM daily, that's the extent of our commitment to this craft. It is a constant learning environment and you have to always be trying out new strategies and new instruments.
One example of this was our commitment to mostly play options on the blog as they are defined risk instruments where one with little knowledge can profit playing. Our daily strategies are FAR more extreme and complicated from just option trading and as I have said to some of you before, there is 'NO WAY' to blog these strategies as they are too advanced even for the most experienced trader. One of our strategies is going to be proprietary in a few months as we are now in the final stage of it development. This strategy will open a whole new dimension to investing and we believe be will be one of the most powerful indicators out there.
The point here is, this blog is just a snap shot of what we do if you are serious and not just curious about the markets and want to make money out of it email me marketjedi@gmail.com or palmer@verticalinvest.com. You have nothing to lose. We have been on the web for a year and our record is proof that our strategies work. Compared to the worst performing year for the S&P, the blog was DEAD ON 100% winners!!!!!!!!
Hope to hear from you if you are serious
MARKETJEDI
Marketjedi@gmail
palmer@verticalinvest.com.
This blog is just a snap shot of what my partner and I do on a daily basis. Don't believe when there is no plays on the blog we aren't trading the heck out of the market. We are often up from 2:30 am and winding down around 6:30PM daily, that's the extent of our commitment to this craft. It is a constant learning environment and you have to always be trying out new strategies and new instruments.
One example of this was our commitment to mostly play options on the blog as they are defined risk instruments where one with little knowledge can profit playing. Our daily strategies are FAR more extreme and complicated from just option trading and as I have said to some of you before, there is 'NO WAY' to blog these strategies as they are too advanced even for the most experienced trader. One of our strategies is going to be proprietary in a few months as we are now in the final stage of it development. This strategy will open a whole new dimension to investing and we believe be will be one of the most powerful indicators out there.
The point here is, this blog is just a snap shot of what we do if you are serious and not just curious about the markets and want to make money out of it email me marketjedi@gmail.com or palmer@verticalinvest.com. You have nothing to lose. We have been on the web for a year and our record is proof that our strategies work. Compared to the worst performing year for the S&P, the blog was DEAD ON 100% winners!!!!!!!!
Hope to hear from you if you are serious
MARKETJEDI
Marketjedi@gmail
palmer@verticalinvest.com.
Not much
Not much action today to talk about. We should get positive tomorrow as I still think we should push higher here. From the volume it seems like most traders took off today but we will see what happens in the coming days.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Staying Alert for 2009
There is a lot of complacency in the market at the moment. When there is so much complacency it usually means the present trend is not sustainable long term. The FED has completely wrecked our financial structure that I believe the worst is yet to come. Having said, that I am reconfirming my stand here, that I am leaning to the long side pre-inauguration of Obama. The general feeling out there is Obama is going to be a cure all to the ills of the last 8 years. I am not going to be political here but it is going to be very hard to under perform the present administration when it comes to economic policies. My problem with Obama is that he has picked no new blood for his economic committees and none who are out of the box thinkers to help us out of this crisis, he is virtually recycling all of the Clinton's staffers which I think is out of date in their thinking just like Bush picked numerous persons who worked in his father's administration and that proved to be lethal.
All I want the government to do is tell the truth and stop railroading us for the elite of society. It would be great if for 2009 the government was totally transparent and we deal with the bad news as it comes and we feel we are all in it together.
The first trading days should be positive and I expect an uptrend into this week. There is a bunch of smaller cap stocks that should move this week as they are classified as 'laggers'. I want to state now that I believe that the DOW will 100% see 4500 in the next 18 months. We will see a lot of upside action because of the new administration euphoria but it will be short lived. The only way we don't get to DOW 4500 within 18 months would be the total destruction of the US dollar. The devaluation of the US dollar will put us along side Japan as a low growth nation for years. The long term danger in my opinion is not really the financial crisis but the devaluation of the dollar. The financial system will almost 100% be nationalized to save us from a virtual financial destruction and I don't know if Wall Street will be the same after all is said and done.
In closing this will be a trading market for years to come, forget buy and hold, that philosophy is DEAD. I think the FED has put us in a bad situation and we will be paying for it dearly.
MARKETJEDI
All I want the government to do is tell the truth and stop railroading us for the elite of society. It would be great if for 2009 the government was totally transparent and we deal with the bad news as it comes and we feel we are all in it together.
The first trading days should be positive and I expect an uptrend into this week. There is a bunch of smaller cap stocks that should move this week as they are classified as 'laggers'. I want to state now that I believe that the DOW will 100% see 4500 in the next 18 months. We will see a lot of upside action because of the new administration euphoria but it will be short lived. The only way we don't get to DOW 4500 within 18 months would be the total destruction of the US dollar. The devaluation of the US dollar will put us along side Japan as a low growth nation for years. The long term danger in my opinion is not really the financial crisis but the devaluation of the dollar. The financial system will almost 100% be nationalized to save us from a virtual financial destruction and I don't know if Wall Street will be the same after all is said and done.
In closing this will be a trading market for years to come, forget buy and hold, that philosophy is DEAD. I think the FED has put us in a bad situation and we will be paying for it dearly.
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Weekend Update
I have about three short points to make from stuff I have been reading since the market close yesterday. Firstly most analysts are finally saying there is no housing recover in sight for 2009 and beyond. Unemployment and the credit crisis will be the underlining problem for housing in the upcoming years and I couldn't agree more.
Secondly, I read numerous notes about low of negative GDP, which is not very good. The clincher here though is how the Obama administration deal with the stimulus plan when they take office and the psychology of the process. A little history note here for some of you. After the great depression the stimulus plan did alleviate some of the effects of the depression but it was not the end all of the economic crisis. What really ended the economic crisis of the great depression was the War, yes the War, the trillions that were spent to make the war successful put almost all americans unemployed by the depression back to work and revitalized new areas of the country that were at a stand still. Now I hope it doesn't take a huge war to get us out of this economic woe but through some smarter monetary action by government, especially to put us back on track as a leader in social, educational and health in the world.
Third point to make is great for some of you. From the technicals I have been reading many think we are in the beginning of a correction wave in the markets. I think it is too soon to tell but if we are, it could push us HARD to the upside. The corrective move should be around 50% of the move down, which could point us in the direction of 11000 on the DOW. I personally hope this situation pans out because many have lost much in the markets and this will cut some of those losses for sure. The key though will be to take profits at those levels and ride it down, yes ride it back down, we are in BEAR market and we MUST proceed with caution if we do get a massive rally.
I still think DOW hits 4500, it is a done deal in the next 15 months.
MARKETJEDI
Secondly, I read numerous notes about low of negative GDP, which is not very good. The clincher here though is how the Obama administration deal with the stimulus plan when they take office and the psychology of the process. A little history note here for some of you. After the great depression the stimulus plan did alleviate some of the effects of the depression but it was not the end all of the economic crisis. What really ended the economic crisis of the great depression was the War, yes the War, the trillions that were spent to make the war successful put almost all americans unemployed by the depression back to work and revitalized new areas of the country that were at a stand still. Now I hope it doesn't take a huge war to get us out of this economic woe but through some smarter monetary action by government, especially to put us back on track as a leader in social, educational and health in the world.
Third point to make is great for some of you. From the technicals I have been reading many think we are in the beginning of a correction wave in the markets. I think it is too soon to tell but if we are, it could push us HARD to the upside. The corrective move should be around 50% of the move down, which could point us in the direction of 11000 on the DOW. I personally hope this situation pans out because many have lost much in the markets and this will cut some of those losses for sure. The key though will be to take profits at those levels and ride it down, yes ride it back down, we are in BEAR market and we MUST proceed with caution if we do get a massive rally.
I still think DOW hits 4500, it is a done deal in the next 15 months.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, January 2, 2009
They found Santa!!!!!
Well seem they found Santa and I SHOULD have held that SSO trade call. Would be worth a DOUBLE if I held till today, but a day too early and 70% more would have been a banging start to the new year. The first three trading days of the year have a high probability to be positive and the action in January usually signals what happens for the rest of the year. We hit that 918 and went beyond which is very bullish action although on light volume. Our EBAY calls are still trying lets hope it gives us some profit and get the 2009 going good, man i am upset about selling those SSO calls but oh well, next trade!!!
I have a play for the Inauguration but I am giving it out to a very selected few :), which I think will be a monster, monster play.
STAY TUNED... I WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.
MARKETJEDI
I have a play for the Inauguration but I am giving it out to a very selected few :), which I think will be a monster, monster play.
STAY TUNED... I WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Resolutions
New Years resolutions are something that people make to note their shortfalls. To that extent my list should be extensive :) indeed. I for one is very far from perfect or where I really want to be in life but I try my best to make the negatives turn into positives or motivate me to do better. This year I think will be another wild year in the market and if I can I wont get caught up in the swings and just stay focused. I guarantee one thing anytime Cramer or the top analysts come out and say this is the bottom I will be shorting without mercy. I do think we bounce and we might bounce violently because people dont want to miss the boat up BUT this bear market will last for years and I am projecting it should last till Nov 2009. Just a note just because a bear market ends doesn't been we will project higher and I want to make a strong note of that, we could just be a range for years, which is the scenario I think might happen.
Real Estate is dead and wont com back for a long time, just too much inventory, coupled with the weakening credit and rising unemployment housing will not have any traction for years.
Commercial Real Estate I think will be also come into the same situation as consumer real estate. The news of poor holiday sales will prove to be the nail in the coffin for commercial real estate and we might be seeing an end to the build a mall anyway mentality of developers as the consumer begins to save where they can. I have a KILLER trade on this and I will show a few of you how to profit from this.
One more area I think will continue to see weakness is Banking. GS, I think can trade to $30 a share and possibly lower before this is all over. GS will eventually be gone in a few quarters because they can't sustain in this market with their present business plan. My #1 play for 2009 was RIMM and it totally was a winner even before the year started. My long term play still stands as FAZ and I think it will prove to be a double when all is said and done.
Finally I hope most of you have been reading the blog deciphering the inner statements and using it and stop giving credence to these mutual funds etc who continue losing your funds. Arm yourself will analytical skills and you can do it better than any money manager out there (except me! as I want to manage your funds) :). I got a few ideas just like early last year which panned out great (remember FNM, Citibank, Wachovia, S&P). Got some here folks, wont let you down 2009 is going to be better than 2008 so saddle up.
Real Estate is dead and wont com back for a long time, just too much inventory, coupled with the weakening credit and rising unemployment housing will not have any traction for years.
Commercial Real Estate I think will be also come into the same situation as consumer real estate. The news of poor holiday sales will prove to be the nail in the coffin for commercial real estate and we might be seeing an end to the build a mall anyway mentality of developers as the consumer begins to save where they can. I have a KILLER trade on this and I will show a few of you how to profit from this.
One more area I think will continue to see weakness is Banking. GS, I think can trade to $30 a share and possibly lower before this is all over. GS will eventually be gone in a few quarters because they can't sustain in this market with their present business plan. My #1 play for 2009 was RIMM and it totally was a winner even before the year started. My long term play still stands as FAZ and I think it will prove to be a double when all is said and done.
Finally I hope most of you have been reading the blog deciphering the inner statements and using it and stop giving credence to these mutual funds etc who continue losing your funds. Arm yourself will analytical skills and you can do it better than any money manager out there (except me! as I want to manage your funds) :). I got a few ideas just like early last year which panned out great (remember FNM, Citibank, Wachovia, S&P). Got some here folks, wont let you down 2009 is going to be better than 2008 so saddle up.
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