Monday, February 28, 2011
Interesting read
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112189/who-owns-the-us?mod=bb-debtmanagement
Seasonality
Seasonality of the first week of March is more than often positive. I would take this into account for this week's trading.
Set ups
Looked on three excellent plays over the weekend that are forming perfect bull flag. Good things is they didn't confirm today as of yet so I am just sitting and waiting on confirmation- That's why it is not good to jump on stuff without correct entry as your risk reward will decrease. I will update.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Need to watch
Just watch a documentary called "Collapse". It is a must watch, it is available on netflix. Awesome for the financial geeks
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Lower
I think we head lower today. Signal was the break of 1306 yesterday. Target is 1284 with a minor reflection @ 1289
Hour in
Market moves around the flat line. Kind of in no man's land here. I guess the bounce was short lived but it is pretty early
Futures
Futures all are positive. I guess they bought it up before the open, that's why the professionals always ahead of the crowd. The little guys can't trade before 9:30 :)
Gap down
It is only 7:30 but if we still trading here on the futures at the open we have a buy able gap down.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tomorrow
Expect to get a bounce tomorrow barring any additional geopolitical news. Oil touched $100 today and I am so mad as I have been looking for an in for the last two weeks and this rally left without me, oh well. With a $100 hit we should consolidate for here. We will see soon enough
BOOYAH!!!!!
See where we finished on the Futures:: 1306.3- BINGO.
Called it here 10:45 this morning. The market is NOT random, it follows sequence of mathematical numbers, secret is to find the formula .........
Called it here 10:45 this morning. The market is NOT random, it follows sequence of mathematical numbers, secret is to find the formula .........
NFLIX- BULL FLAG??
Over the weekend I was looking at NFLX and it totally looked like a bull flag was forming but look at what has happened this week. Lesson here is you MUST wait for confirmation and NOT cheat. If it did confirm its target would have been $250 now it trading $20 lower @ $210.
Patience
Patience
Tough
Tough day if you are a trader- We should have bounced already if we were going to. I am thinking if we go we should head to 1321 but it is very tricky here.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Markets
When in doubt do nothing. That's what I think we are in now, doubt mode. The market looks higher BUT I expect a pullback before we tackle that fib level I mentioned in past post. Beyond that I am also getting some projections up to 1427, which is where ultimately we will end up.
Now I am flat very flat as we are too jittery here and when the pullback comes it will allow for a excellent risk reward for longs. I would not be short here as I think the pullback will be shallow.
Now I am flat very flat as we are too jittery here and when the pullback comes it will allow for a excellent risk reward for longs. I would not be short here as I think the pullback will be shallow.
Oil
I have been a long time Oil bull as most know. I think the time of cheap oil is over and these political shift in the middle east might have own supply in hands of folks who are against western political views. I think there is a good chance we hit that $113 level in the next 12 months.
Oil
Wow missed this HUGE move on Oil. New two year highs on the trouble in Libya.
Wont happen today but I will be looking at S&P 1303 for a long to hold
Wont happen today but I will be looking at S&P 1303 for a long to hold
Tuesday morning
Seem like we will start the week on a huge gap down. All the previous gaps have been buy able but I would wait for a confirmation of a 10am high.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Bullish action
I still think we get a pullback but we in a bullish tone and I will be getting on for the ride up to the .786 fib (1382) area. Now I am getting some more concrete time frame analysis projections in April and June so I expect us to hit that number somewhere around those two months.
Have a great weekend- Mine will be extremely busy.
Have a great weekend- Mine will be extremely busy.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
WHY
Why do folks believe they need to trade constantly? You don't have to be on pins and needles everyday looking for trades, trades will come to you. you can't force the market hands it will do what it wants, even if you have a 100Million portfolio that is just a speckle of sand to the real monies in the market.
Don't watch your account daily relax! stop staring at screens! I am telling you this 1999/2000 will never come back so stop thinking you bought a stock for $20 and tomorrow it will be $40.
Don't watch your account daily relax! stop staring at screens! I am telling you this 1999/2000 will never come back so stop thinking you bought a stock for $20 and tomorrow it will be $40.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Narrow range
Notice the narrow ranges of the last few days. Seem like a rest before a move, consolidation.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Idea
Just a thought I have. I have been looking for a pullback to jump on to some S&P's calls but we haven't gotten a big enough pullback yet. My thought right now is the same as last year, I believe we will hit a trade able high in 2011, I am getting some signals it might happen in April or June and I will be looking for a grand finale to get short. In the meantime If and when we get a pullback it is 1000% buy-able as I expect us to make a high in April or June.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Hmm- Think I got another one
Yes another bull flag set up like FSLR on friday- This one is on AA, Make sure it confirms the pattern and jump on for the ride.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Nokia
So Nokia stock is getting slammed today. Here is a little story that you can use to invest or know which stocks to short. For the last 3 months I have been researching smartphones as I am still using a dumb phone :) so one night my wife asked me if I have decided which phone I am going to get. I said looks like a HTC but I want to wait on the new 4G offerings, I am so behind technology wise with my cell phone might as well do the best upgrade, so she replied what happen to NOKIA? I said you know I think Nokia's time is all over, I can't recall seeing a Nokia phone here I actually only see them when I travel overseas.
So there is a everyday example of observing what is around us daily that we use to help us invest, don't listen to the idiots on CNBC :) Go out and open your minds to stuff happening around you.
Have a great weekend.
So there is a everyday example of observing what is around us daily that we use to help us invest, don't listen to the idiots on CNBC :) Go out and open your minds to stuff happening around you.
Have a great weekend.
My experience-
My experience tells me if the president of Egypt steps down rather than it be a positive for the markets it will actually initiate the pullback. Sounds counter to what should happen but if you are long be careful here.
Oil
Can't figure out what is going on in Egypt. It will soon stabilize I believe but just digesting the news. I am still looking for an in for Oil.
There she goes--FSLR
$166. BINGO BINGO- WOW
That one was UBER fast- feel like internet bubble days!!!
That one was UBER fast- feel like internet bubble days!!!
Timing-FSLR
Saw that one by chance but sometimes it just takes minutes for you to be hugely profitable while other times it take awhile for the pattern to play out.
$165.90 is target but we will get new highs on it so $166.
$165.90 is target but we will get new highs on it so $166.
WOW-FSLR
FSLR Moving - now that one was quick- If it is a bull flag the target would be new highs, 52 week high is 165.90.
No Idea
No Idea what the markets wants to do here short term- the Egypt news have us in a bind with geopolitical issues BUT the commodities which should react aren't reacting.
So when In doubt sit on hands, plenty of time to get in on stuff when a trend shows it head. I still believe we will pullback here in the S&P SHORT TERM maybe to the 1306 level.
So when In doubt sit on hands, plenty of time to get in on stuff when a trend shows it head. I still believe we will pullback here in the S&P SHORT TERM maybe to the 1306 level.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Copy of article today- SO TRUE
With nobody willing to step in front of the runaway freight train on Wall Street, market pros are left with an ironically vexing problem: How do you make money in a market that just keeps moving in the same direction?
It's not as easy as it sounds.
Low volatility might sound like an investor's dream, but it wreaks havoc with advisors and traders who count on market gyrations and use corresponding hedging strategies.
The problem isn't just Wall Street's: Portfolio managers who use long-short strategies for their clients have been affected by the market's lack of volatility, potentially hurting returns for individual investors.
The market's inexorable march higher, in which the Standard & Poor's 500 (INDEX: .SPX) has traded above its 50-day moving average for 111 straight sessions, in some respects has made investing much more complicated.
"Try being a strategist," says Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose in New York. "It's frustrating that the market continually sees a bid. We know that we're playing a game that is somewhat rigged...But the sustainability is evident and can continue to be evident for a while."
The market, particularly in the past eight months, has been remarkably boring, only recently breaking a correlation trend that had seen most stocks, and in fact most asset classes, move tightly in the same direction.
Just one in five sessions have seen moves of more than 100 Dow points in either direction, and about one in 20 has seen a swing of 200 points.
For options players and high-speed traders, such a stoic climb, rather than creating a comfort zone, actually can make for a difficult environment.
It might sound like a nice problem to have, but that's not necessarily the case.
"As the market has marched higher, volatility has come off. It's made the chore of hedging a portfolio cheaper," says Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "But the runup in the market has made that need redundant."
The only consolation for those using options-such as equity puts and calls and plays on the now-listless CBOE Volatility Index (Market Data Express: VIX)-has been a nice run in mergers and acquisitions, which has caused some momentary spikes in stock prices.
"Probably a decent amount of money has been made by trying to target at the very least big movements in certain stocks that have become takeover targets," Wilkinson says. "It depends on how well-tuned you are in spotting stocks that are takeover candidates. When you have no volatility, M&A is a good substitute."
Like many other strategists, Wilkinson is anticipating a pullback soon, and possibly a violent one considering how far and fast the market has risen.
To reference such a dramatic two-year move in the Dow, one would have to go back to the Great Depression, when the market doubled from March 14, 1935 to March 10, 1937. Of course, the aftermath from that wasn't pleasant.
"The downturn might have been felt a lot more, but it was not historically as quick," says Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. "This bounceback is stronger and quicker than any of the historical rebounds that we've seen thus far within bull and bear markets."
The issue of a correction has been vexing to many strategists who felt that the recent turmoil in Egypt, and the Jan. 28 selloff in the market, would provide the perfect opportunity for the market to catch its breath.
"We've definitely had opportunities, that being a key one," Silverblatt says. "I wouldn't be shocked or dismayed for some kind of retraction. We've come a long way without people pulling back. But as long as we see earnings going strong and sales do not tank, what's going to be the catalyst?"
Earnings have turned in a respectable performance, with about 70 percent of companies beating on both bottom line profit and top-line revenue.
At the same time, a rise in interest rates has proven no deterrent to stock investors, nor has the continuing threat of more upheaval in the Middle East.
Those who believe the market is overheated cite Dow Theory which states that a rally must be confirmed by the transport sector, which has not happened. The Dow is up about 4 percent since Jan. 13, while the transports have fallen 2.8 percent.
Yet the bull market cycle has kept going and pushed the bears further out into the cold.
"Any bear feels uncomfortable right now. They put us under the spotlight," says Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors in New York. "To me this just feels like a bunch of elephants trying to herd through a door. It's getting very peaky."
Ultimately, finding that correction and using it to collect profits and plot strategy going forward will be the only thing that soothes those who have been caught looking for a pullback and not getting one.
But for now, fighting the bullish tape seems a losing game as well.
"It's a game of musical chairs, and I don't want to be the one standing without a chair," Boyle says.
"The market as a discounting mechanism has just been marching toward trouble for some time," Wilkinson adds. "So it wouldn't surprise me to see it pull back. Earnings are doing fine and you can't complain. But who ever knows when valuation is appropriate
It's not as easy as it sounds.
Low volatility might sound like an investor's dream, but it wreaks havoc with advisors and traders who count on market gyrations and use corresponding hedging strategies.
The problem isn't just Wall Street's: Portfolio managers who use long-short strategies for their clients have been affected by the market's lack of volatility, potentially hurting returns for individual investors.
The market's inexorable march higher, in which the Standard & Poor's 500 (INDEX: .SPX) has traded above its 50-day moving average for 111 straight sessions, in some respects has made investing much more complicated.
"Try being a strategist," says Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose in New York. "It's frustrating that the market continually sees a bid. We know that we're playing a game that is somewhat rigged...But the sustainability is evident and can continue to be evident for a while."
The market, particularly in the past eight months, has been remarkably boring, only recently breaking a correlation trend that had seen most stocks, and in fact most asset classes, move tightly in the same direction.
Just one in five sessions have seen moves of more than 100 Dow points in either direction, and about one in 20 has seen a swing of 200 points.
For options players and high-speed traders, such a stoic climb, rather than creating a comfort zone, actually can make for a difficult environment.
It might sound like a nice problem to have, but that's not necessarily the case.
"As the market has marched higher, volatility has come off. It's made the chore of hedging a portfolio cheaper," says Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "But the runup in the market has made that need redundant."
The only consolation for those using options-such as equity puts and calls and plays on the now-listless CBOE Volatility Index (Market Data Express: VIX)-has been a nice run in mergers and acquisitions, which has caused some momentary spikes in stock prices.
"Probably a decent amount of money has been made by trying to target at the very least big movements in certain stocks that have become takeover targets," Wilkinson says. "It depends on how well-tuned you are in spotting stocks that are takeover candidates. When you have no volatility, M&A is a good substitute."
Like many other strategists, Wilkinson is anticipating a pullback soon, and possibly a violent one considering how far and fast the market has risen.
To reference such a dramatic two-year move in the Dow, one would have to go back to the Great Depression, when the market doubled from March 14, 1935 to March 10, 1937. Of course, the aftermath from that wasn't pleasant.
"The downturn might have been felt a lot more, but it was not historically as quick," says Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. "This bounceback is stronger and quicker than any of the historical rebounds that we've seen thus far within bull and bear markets."
The issue of a correction has been vexing to many strategists who felt that the recent turmoil in Egypt, and the Jan. 28 selloff in the market, would provide the perfect opportunity for the market to catch its breath.
"We've definitely had opportunities, that being a key one," Silverblatt says. "I wouldn't be shocked or dismayed for some kind of retraction. We've come a long way without people pulling back. But as long as we see earnings going strong and sales do not tank, what's going to be the catalyst?"
Earnings have turned in a respectable performance, with about 70 percent of companies beating on both bottom line profit and top-line revenue.
At the same time, a rise in interest rates has proven no deterrent to stock investors, nor has the continuing threat of more upheaval in the Middle East.
Those who believe the market is overheated cite Dow Theory which states that a rally must be confirmed by the transport sector, which has not happened. The Dow is up about 4 percent since Jan. 13, while the transports have fallen 2.8 percent.
Yet the bull market cycle has kept going and pushed the bears further out into the cold.
"Any bear feels uncomfortable right now. They put us under the spotlight," says Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors in New York. "To me this just feels like a bunch of elephants trying to herd through a door. It's getting very peaky."
Ultimately, finding that correction and using it to collect profits and plot strategy going forward will be the only thing that soothes those who have been caught looking for a pullback and not getting one.
But for now, fighting the bullish tape seems a losing game as well.
"It's a game of musical chairs, and I don't want to be the one standing without a chair," Boyle says.
"The market as a discounting mechanism has just been marching toward trouble for some time," Wilkinson adds. "So it wouldn't surprise me to see it pull back. Earnings are doing fine and you can't complain. But who ever knows when valuation is appropriate
Bigger picture
Bigger picture here I believe we will hit those 1382 levels but shorter term we need to digest this bullish move up so I am looking for some consolidation and pullback to get long. Almost exact example of the oil trade but right now we are in a high risk area to take longs without getting that pullback. I rather to take higher risk reward plays and miss the ride if there is one but I believe we could retrace back down to the 61.8 Fib levels easily (1229) and that would make the perfect area to get on longs for a run to the 1382 area.
Wont be around for rest of week as I am somewhat busy but I will chime in if I get the chance to.
Wont be around for rest of week as I am somewhat busy but I will chime in if I get the chance to.
Correction
Correction to my wow post yesterday- The S&P figure to look at is 1382, which is the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement from the highs to crash lows.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
WOW
Wow got some projects just now on the S&P all the way up in the 1396 area and one in the 1420s. Interesting! maybe that's where our top will be for the year.
We will see soon enough
We will see soon enough
Oil
Glad I really jumped ship on that oil long last week- Oil getting its head handed to it BUT I will be looking for a in to get long as I am still bullish on the commodity.
Monday, February 7, 2011
1327
I think that area will be the area to short- I am dipping here but I believe we will get up to that 1327 level before we get to a substantial pullback
1312
1312 is a very important level on the S&P. If we shoot higher from that number I expect us to see 1360's later but not being able to surpass this area will lead us down to the 1260 area.
We will see soon enough. Posts will be limited this week as I have much work to do.
We will see soon enough. Posts will be limited this week as I have much work to do.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Gold
Though we get a minor bounce in Gold. My work is still telling me we will hit 1276 before we get to new highs. So how would I play it. If we retrace down to the 1278/6 area I would be a buyer but right here I would not be willing to short though I feel highly we will hit 1276. Just not what I do
Friday, February 4, 2011
BINGO- OIL
Man oh man yesterday I got out of oil long as I felt Oil was going to get a pullback. Even on a gap up this morning I felt the same. Now look at it dive.
It will post where I think it might bounce later.
BINGO
It will post where I think it might bounce later.
BINGO
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Oil
So this morning I took off my Oil trade as it looks like we digesting too much here. Looks like we will get a pullback.
GS also heading to last week's low in a rush as noted it would.
GS also heading to last week's low in a rush as noted it would.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Crazy
One crazy market just when we thought we have a reversal in place we get a HUGE trend day up like yesterday. I am not in the perma bull cap that THIS is a new move here higher, my thought we will pullback much like Oil did THEN continue up.
For today I don't expect much as we should consolidate the huge day yesterday.
For today I don't expect much as we should consolidate the huge day yesterday.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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