Sunday, October 11, 2009

Gold Target 1076

Dollar still bearish




The greenback made fresh lows on the week, maintaining its leading role as the worlds largest supply of weak paper.
My interpretation has structure completing minute [iii] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] at the 75.68 L. My alternate view is that low finished minute [v], thus primary [B].
Should [iii] be complete, then we should be in the beginning stages of [iv]. Any trade through the 77.795 L, the price extreme of [i], will suggest that perhaps it was wave [v] that finished at the 75.68 L.

The move off that low certainly appears corrective in nature.
Bottom line - I maintain my near-term bearish stance. If my assessment is correct, we are getting closer to a turning point, however, were not quite there yet.

Crude




The crude market continued higher this past week as expected.

My interpretation of the crude structure remains the same. I have price tracing minuette (c) of minute [d] in a minor B triangle of intermediate (B). My alternate view is that this is a minute [iv] triangle.

Price ran into the upper boundary of the corrective channel and was initially repelled, but finished Friday's trade closing above it. This also closes price above the daily 50 sma.
I show minuette (a) completing at the 71.39 H, however, it is possible that it actually finished at the 71.97 H.
I'm not real concerned with exactly how the internal structure traces out. Just be aware that this wave could end at any time.
Should price trade through the 75.89 H or the 61.38 L, this would invalidate the triangle view