This is one roller coaster market. Down yesterday by the worst absolute amount ever on the DOW and second for the S&P. Now today we are up huge, 400+ as I write and S&P might have its best day in 5 years. This is just crazy.
Tomorrow is first of the month and I would love to see us push alittle higher into the pending redrafting of the financial bail out bill.
Talk to you tomorrow
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
TRADE CALL :CITIBANK PUTS
Risky play- but I believe citibank is just buying time before it goes to $10.
buying the Nov $22.50 puts here. @4.10.
ticker is C WA
buying the Nov $22.50 puts here. @4.10.
ticker is C WA
Futures up
Futures trading higher on optimistic views of a bailout bill being passed. I think we will get one but the rally that follows will just be a reason to sell into or short. I dont see any logical reason to buy in this market but see tons of reasons to sell. Folks dont make this harder than it is the market is weak and the only time we go up is on news not fundamentals.
Fundamentals and technicals say we go lower in the long run but the bailout should give us a push higher
Fundamentals and technicals say we go lower in the long run but the bailout should give us a push higher
Monday, September 29, 2008
Bailout Thoughts
My God could we stop CNBC, CNN, FOX and whoever to stop the madness about Bailout. Listen folks I am totally against the bailout for 3 reasons: Tired of the wasting of the tax payers monies on crap that only benefit a few, tired of the need to right now mentality which forces us to make decisions without looking at alternatives and finally this bill won't save the eventual fall of the markets.
The people who controls the power in this country need to be accountable to all of us: from the CEO's, new reports, analysts who have their talk shows who constantly misinform us and finally the politicians who play with our futures with their egos and game play.
We must stand up against the establishment because it is us who will suffer in the end.
We are going to see much much lower prices I still think when all is said and done 6800 on the DOW might be the level I think the market can constructively rebuild itself, till then we are in nose bleed territory.
The people who controls the power in this country need to be accountable to all of us: from the CEO's, new reports, analysts who have their talk shows who constantly misinform us and finally the politicians who play with our futures with their egos and game play.
We must stand up against the establishment because it is us who will suffer in the end.
We are going to see much much lower prices I still think when all is said and done 6800 on the DOW might be the level I think the market can constructively rebuild itself, till then we are in nose bleed territory.
Weeeeeeeeeee- Was I right or NOT!
Well I said I was looking for a 750-1000 point down day on the DOW soon. Today we got to 777 points down. I being saying for along time we in a world of hurt. Americans problems is they never think anything will go wrong and on this premise there is never enough contingencies set in place when the most optimistic situation melts away in front of their eyes.
Been saying it and I will say it again. Don't buy! DON'T BUY.
Once again another prediction becomes reality
MARKETJEDI
Been saying it and I will say it again. Don't buy! DON'T BUY.
Once again another prediction becomes reality
MARKETJEDI
1000 POINT DOWN DAY
Is today we get the big down day- I have been saying I expect a 750-1000 point down day.
Prediction again!!!!!!- SOV
Anyone see my #2 bank on my failure list today??
It is down 62%..
SOV Death!!!!!
It is down 62%..
SOV Death!!!!!
Another Marketjedi Prediction comes true
Well Folks here it is again another prediction turn reality Wachovia is now below $5.
Sorry folks it is not looking good out there at all.
The only place to get real perspective on the market is here, PERIOD!
MARKETJEDI
Sorry folks it is not looking good out there at all.
The only place to get real perspective on the market is here, PERIOD!
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, September 28, 2008
This bounce
IF and I say IF- We get a decent bounce I have a couple of plays which I think will be totally awesome as they WILL set up nicely on a bounce.
SO STAY TUNED.
MARKETJEDI
SO STAY TUNED.
MARKETJEDI
Bailout Thoughts
Well folks I think we will get a bailout plan signed but what does that mean for the markets is the real question. I think the markets will get a bounce especially financials and the tech sector.
Now the important question is how far do we bounce as we will still be in a bear market. My thoughts on this is purely technical but I could see us bouncing to the 200 MA on all the indices. Look for 1300 on the S&P, 2396 are on the Nasdaq and 11720 area on the DOW. Now I Hear Cramer calling for 8300 or something on the DOW well to me that signals a short term lows here and although I think we go much lower, it would be better the market trying higher here into some resistance before we fall on our backs again.
Now the important question is how far do we bounce as we will still be in a bear market. My thoughts on this is purely technical but I could see us bouncing to the 200 MA on all the indices. Look for 1300 on the S&P, 2396 are on the Nasdaq and 11720 area on the DOW. Now I Hear Cramer calling for 8300 or something on the DOW well to me that signals a short term lows here and although I think we go much lower, it would be better the market trying higher here into some resistance before we fall on our backs again.
Friday, September 26, 2008
WACHOVIA + CITIBANK
We seem like they are talking on some merge- It is a rumor but seem plausible since both are in the shit house
Wachovia
Come on sweetie die for me - DIE FOR ME
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WACHOVIA TOAST
As I said before WACHOVIA is toast. It is down 25% pre market and has alot more to go.
WB see sub $5 very soon -
MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WB see sub $5 very soon -
MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Greed on Wallstreet-
This is why I vote for no bailout..
A backlash is building against Wall Street's bonus culture as the US struggles to accept the urgency of a taxpayer-funded $700bn (£380bn) bad debt bail-out while the biggest firms continue to siphon billions of dollars into bonus pools earmarked to reward their star "risk-takers".
Despite mounting criticism, regulatory filings show the world's largest investment banks, while fighting huge asset write-downs and plunging share prices, are still planning multibillion-dollar bonuses.
During last week's market turmoil, Morgan Stanley quietly announced that it had, for the nine months to August, accrued £10.7bn towards annual staff rewards. The funds will be distributed at the end of the year, mostly as "discretionary" bonuses.
Over the same period the bank's shares have halved in value so the £10.7bn bonus pool already equals about a third of Morgan Stanley's value on the stock exchange.
At Lehman Brothers, which collapsed last week, a $2.5bn bonus pool had been built up largely for Wall Street bankers. Meanwhile, the bank lost $6.6bn in 2008 before rushing for the bankruptcy courts.
The bonuses - again "discretionary" - are still expected to be paid. Lehman's boss Richard Fuld took home $40m last year in salary, bonuses and options.
Goldman Sachs last week revealed its nine-month salary and bonus pool had reached £11.4bn by August 29. Last year chairman Lloyd Blankfein received a pay package of $70.3m, including options.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment on the size or appropriateness of bonuses but noted they were, respectively, 32% and 20% lower than the previous year. Both firms have so far weathered the credit crunch better than their peers.
Last week the pair revealed plans to relinquish their regulatory status as investment banks, which is expected to rein in risk-taking - and, by extension, staff pay and bonuses.
Competition for star performers, however, will continue. One banker, who asked not to be named, said: "Yes, there is turmoil in the market, but this is a talent business and you have to pay for talent."
Others say bonuses are out of hand and have corrupted banking. David Einhorn, an activist investor and short-seller who is believed to have made millions from Lehman's collapse, is among them. In April he told a hedge fund conference: "With no one watching, the managements of the investment banks did exactly what they were incentivised to do: maximise employee compensation. Investment banks pay out 50% of revenues as compensation. More leverage means more revenues, which means more compensation."
What sticks in the craw for many is the colossal rewards often enjoyed by fallen stars of investment banking, many of whom are acknowledged to have created or compounded a financial crisis for the firm they leave behind.
Stan O'Neal, chairman of Merrill Lynch, retired last year after announcing $8bn of losses with a final package valued at $161m. Chuck Prince left Citigroup last year with a $10m bonus and $28m in unvested stock after multibillion-dollar write-downs.
In Britain, Bob Diamond, Barclays president, who orchestrated the takeover of part of Lehman Brothers, is a rare exception. His basic salary last year was £250,000 but his total pay, including bonuses, topped £36m.
A backlash is building against Wall Street's bonus culture as the US struggles to accept the urgency of a taxpayer-funded $700bn (£380bn) bad debt bail-out while the biggest firms continue to siphon billions of dollars into bonus pools earmarked to reward their star "risk-takers".
Despite mounting criticism, regulatory filings show the world's largest investment banks, while fighting huge asset write-downs and plunging share prices, are still planning multibillion-dollar bonuses.
During last week's market turmoil, Morgan Stanley quietly announced that it had, for the nine months to August, accrued £10.7bn towards annual staff rewards. The funds will be distributed at the end of the year, mostly as "discretionary" bonuses.
Over the same period the bank's shares have halved in value so the £10.7bn bonus pool already equals about a third of Morgan Stanley's value on the stock exchange.
At Lehman Brothers, which collapsed last week, a $2.5bn bonus pool had been built up largely for Wall Street bankers. Meanwhile, the bank lost $6.6bn in 2008 before rushing for the bankruptcy courts.
The bonuses - again "discretionary" - are still expected to be paid. Lehman's boss Richard Fuld took home $40m last year in salary, bonuses and options.
Goldman Sachs last week revealed its nine-month salary and bonus pool had reached £11.4bn by August 29. Last year chairman Lloyd Blankfein received a pay package of $70.3m, including options.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment on the size or appropriateness of bonuses but noted they were, respectively, 32% and 20% lower than the previous year. Both firms have so far weathered the credit crunch better than their peers.
Last week the pair revealed plans to relinquish their regulatory status as investment banks, which is expected to rein in risk-taking - and, by extension, staff pay and bonuses.
Competition for star performers, however, will continue. One banker, who asked not to be named, said: "Yes, there is turmoil in the market, but this is a talent business and you have to pay for talent."
Others say bonuses are out of hand and have corrupted banking. David Einhorn, an activist investor and short-seller who is believed to have made millions from Lehman's collapse, is among them. In April he told a hedge fund conference: "With no one watching, the managements of the investment banks did exactly what they were incentivised to do: maximise employee compensation. Investment banks pay out 50% of revenues as compensation. More leverage means more revenues, which means more compensation."
What sticks in the craw for many is the colossal rewards often enjoyed by fallen stars of investment banking, many of whom are acknowledged to have created or compounded a financial crisis for the firm they leave behind.
Stan O'Neal, chairman of Merrill Lynch, retired last year after announcing $8bn of losses with a final package valued at $161m. Chuck Prince left Citigroup last year with a $10m bonus and $28m in unvested stock after multibillion-dollar write-downs.
In Britain, Bob Diamond, Barclays president, who orchestrated the takeover of part of Lehman Brothers, is a rare exception. His basic salary last year was £250,000 but his total pay, including bonuses, topped £36m.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Predictions on point again!!!
WM- Washington Mutual now becomes the largest bank failure in history.
Here is the blog entry from July 12
Okie Dokie
We just had our first bankruptcy of a slew which will happen in the near future in INdyMac. This is going to be one tough road for the bank and I STILL think a regional bank will fail. I was ask last week who I think will fail and my list are as follows:
No.1 candidate is WM (Washington Mutual)
No.2 SOV (Sovereign Bank)
No.3 DSL (Downey Financial)
No.4 NCC (National City)
No.5 STI (Suntrust).
My list still STANDS and the #1 WM looks like they are in deep trouble with the stock dropping 30% today to a 17 year low.
I know the tv guys are saying July was the lows but whoever believes that is in DENIAL of the true situation we are in.
MARKETJEDI RULES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here is the blog entry from July 12
Okie Dokie
We just had our first bankruptcy of a slew which will happen in the near future in INdyMac. This is going to be one tough road for the bank and I STILL think a regional bank will fail. I was ask last week who I think will fail and my list are as follows:
No.1 candidate is WM (Washington Mutual)
No.2 SOV (Sovereign Bank)
No.3 DSL (Downey Financial)
No.4 NCC (National City)
No.5 STI (Suntrust).
My list still STANDS and the #1 WM looks like they are in deep trouble with the stock dropping 30% today to a 17 year low.
I know the tv guys are saying July was the lows but whoever believes that is in DENIAL of the true situation we are in.
MARKETJEDI RULES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
REALITY
The reality folks is that no matter what we heading into a deep recession. Again I get alot of heat sometimes from people when I say this but the economy has to run its course. Don't be surprised if we go to last week lows in a rush if no bailout is passed quick enough.
I can't believe the idiots we have running financials institutions and the government. I have ideas but who am I for them to listen to :).
MARKETJEDI
I can't believe the idiots we have running financials institutions and the government. I have ideas but who am I for them to listen to :).
MARKETJEDI
Bailout
Bailout seem to be on pause. Wow not good news in the eyes of Wall Street. We will see how this pans out
Goldman Sachs
I have been reading this evening thoroughly about Warren Buffet so called investment in Goldman Sachs. Maybe I am an idiot but it is not an investment but lending of cash with warrants attached which looks like an awesome deal. Buffet is going to be paid 10% on his 'investment' and have options to exercise purchase of common @$115.
To me this is an awesome play and if I had the money I would be doing the same. Even if the share price goes south he will be collecting 10% no matter what and on top of that if it goes higher he can buy shares at a discount @$115.
Saying that, I dont believe GS will be speared the bloodbath of the upcoming selling. Goldman I am now putting on my top short list of financials. OPPS we can't short them :) I guess options will do :)
MARKETJEDI--
Absolutely no losers here period !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To me this is an awesome play and if I had the money I would be doing the same. Even if the share price goes south he will be collecting 10% no matter what and on top of that if it goes higher he can buy shares at a discount @$115.
Saying that, I dont believe GS will be speared the bloodbath of the upcoming selling. Goldman I am now putting on my top short list of financials. OPPS we can't short them :) I guess options will do :)
MARKETJEDI--
Absolutely no losers here period !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Had to blow my horn
Well folks another AWESOME call- RIMM death after market close. I noted June 25th that RIMM would see south of $100 by September and on July 25th I called RIMM my number one short pick for the next 18 months.
RIMM was $125 then now it is trading around $82 after hours. I think RIMM is a $20 at best. We still got 15 months left to see where it will be in 18 months.
Stay Tuned-
MARKETJEDI
RIMM was $125 then now it is trading around $82 after hours. I think RIMM is a $20 at best. We still got 15 months left to see where it will be in 18 months.
Stay Tuned-
MARKETJEDI
Bailout Plan
I have no idea what is going on with the bailout plans but this is what I think. I think we get some mojo higher into the final draft next week and then have a few days of buying which will be on weak volume. I still think this will lead to nothing just as the other deals but who knows.
See you at DOW 9000's
See you at DOW 9000's
Financials
Financials higher as noted this morning. Everything is light here as the markets are obviously waiting for some news on the Bailout package.
Bailout Plan or whatever
Bailout plan or whatever they are calling it seem like it is going to get passed with some adjustments. Although I am bearish this should give us a nice push up for a few days I believe. The financials will more than likely get the biggest push and retail sector. As of now the futures are up but I am wary to short this as any news can send us higher into a resolution of the bailout.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Paulson Speaking
Paulson is speaking now on the Bailout package to congress. There was some selling in the pits but doesn't seem too bad now. The real test will be the question and answer
Monday, September 22, 2008
Gold
I got a call from someone saying Cramer is saying to buy Gold. Personally I think gold is a fear trade now especially internationally. There has been some speculation that gold is being bought to get out of US Dollar reserve by International Central Bank. I have no thoughts on this but I know for sure I think the dollar is going to hell and IF I were to buy a safe commodity here on the declining Dollar trade it would be OIL.
I am not much of an expert on the economics of Gold but the charts say it can go higher especially if there is a inverse relationship Dollar.
Stay Tune for More
I am not much of an expert on the economics of Gold but the charts say it can go higher especially if there is a inverse relationship Dollar.
Stay Tune for More
One Crazy Market
This is one crazy market. The truth is everyone is trading in and out of stuff because they are afraid of getting crushed. Today oil was up at one point $25, just amazing. The US Dollar also had the biggest losing day on record and much of the movement in the commodities prices were attributed to the weaker dollar.
There is obvious questioning on the street on this whole bailout plan. Firstly it was estimated to cost 700 Billion but today it was punch up to 1.4 Trillion. The cost of the bailout one economist noted could fund two IRAQ WARS. CRAZY but one thing i know here comes lower prices. I actually thought we could bounce today before the market opened but tomorrow we can set up a bounce scenario if we drift down to support on the S&P.
Goldman Sachs was a big loser today, so was Citibank and Wachovia but the irony here is that you can't short these shares so let me ask them WHO is letting these stocks get killed. It is just finger pointing and it is easy to say the shorts are killing stocks but no matter what GRAVITY will prevail and big these stocks lower because they are worth much less than what they are trading at.
I think Citibank can see $5, Wachovia $5 and Goldman $80 when it is all said and done. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
There is obvious questioning on the street on this whole bailout plan. Firstly it was estimated to cost 700 Billion but today it was punch up to 1.4 Trillion. The cost of the bailout one economist noted could fund two IRAQ WARS. CRAZY but one thing i know here comes lower prices. I actually thought we could bounce today before the market opened but tomorrow we can set up a bounce scenario if we drift down to support on the S&P.
Goldman Sachs was a big loser today, so was Citibank and Wachovia but the irony here is that you can't short these shares so let me ask them WHO is letting these stocks get killed. It is just finger pointing and it is easy to say the shorts are killing stocks but no matter what GRAVITY will prevail and big these stocks lower because they are worth much less than what they are trading at.
I think Citibank can see $5, Wachovia $5 and Goldman $80 when it is all said and done. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL UPDATE: TWM
Trading @ $66 now purchased thursday @$60. The plan for this play is as follows. I am looking for support tomorrow so IF we gap down I would be looking to take it off for a nice profit. IF we gap up I would be shorting anyways and wait for us to go negative and take profits there. Anyway it SHOULDN'T be a loser.
$6 profit in 2 days just awesome as usual.
MARKETJEDI
$6 profit in 2 days just awesome as usual.
MARKETJEDI
Selling again
We have continued the selling that started at the open on friday. We look like we can close at lows of the day
Monday Lunch time
Wel dont see the rally from last week is sticking today. Banks are down especially the ones the street believe are going to get crushed anyways. How stupid does the SEC feel about halting short selling but seeing Wachovia and Citibank down today. Short sellers have nothing to do with the out dated models of these banks I am sorry but people who make that claim are a bunch of idiots.
I am buying small very small REW here. it is a ultrashort tech ETF. I still think tech get crushed soon. Maybe they will stop shorting Apple and Rimm soon. Just crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am buying small very small REW here. it is a ultrashort tech ETF. I still think tech get crushed soon. Maybe they will stop shorting Apple and Rimm soon. Just crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sunday, September 21, 2008
This Week
This week SHOULD be less volatile than last week. I still think traders are looking what this massive bailout has for the markets, as for me I think it is an bandaid fix. I think no matter what the financials are DEAD. We will see soon enough especially this and next week.
As of now 8:40 Sunday night the futures are down huge. Let's see how we play out as I think we will push higher here off the short squeeze.
As of now 8:40 Sunday night the futures are down huge. Let's see how we play out as I think we will push higher here off the short squeeze.
Friday, September 19, 2008
WOW
We just hit lows of the day. Told you not a rally to buy but to sell.
We will see soon enough
MARKETJEDI
We will see soon enough
MARKETJEDI
Close
It is 3:15 and we getting weak. The thing to watch here is if we close @ the lows of the day the model will be we go lower next week.
Watch for that
Watch for that
What do I think
Someone just emailed me and asked me what I think about all of this. I sum it up like this "This rally is a rally to sell into not buy into"
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Interesting
We just missed the upside opening price of 1268 and for me to believe there is more upside today we MUST push above 1270. As of now we can retrace back to the 1250 level.
Interesting
We just missed the upside opening price of 1268 and for me to believe there is more upside today we MUST push above 1270. As of now we can retrace back to the 1250 level.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Not Believe
I dont think Wall street believe this will help. It sounds crazy but I would not be surprised if we go red. The only problem is that today is triple witching expiration and that's the wild card..
SELLING
They have been selling us since the open. The bear flags are kicking in and now we are below the 10 am lows
Huge gap up
Huge gap up on the indices BUT I see some bear flags forming on some of the big time stocks. SO be careful
Error
Resistance is not 1275 as stated previously it is 1272 which is the .786 retracement on the S&P
SuperCommunist to save the DAY
We are socializing everything just to save a few wealthy people from getting less wealthy. Paulson is out to save his banking buddies and not the regular guy who business fails. I mean do you think you can get a bail out from Paulson. All his friends he is saving their net worth with this move especially his buddy from MS.
It is a disgrace and the public is so blinded.
OH well, we are up huge this morning and I believe we will hold the gain. We blew through the 50% retracement of 1245 on the S&P so next resistance is 1275, as of now the highs are 1257.75, so who know if we get there today, but if we get there before lunch I would short it there.
NO SHORTING on any financials for the next 2 weeks in this new socialized stock market, so I guess puts will be more expensive to play but I think it will be a good shot to buy SKF next week into the expiration of the ban. I think that will be a super play.
It is a disgrace and the public is so blinded.
OH well, we are up huge this morning and I believe we will hold the gain. We blew through the 50% retracement of 1245 on the S&P so next resistance is 1275, as of now the highs are 1257.75, so who know if we get there today, but if we get there before lunch I would short it there.
NO SHORTING on any financials for the next 2 weeks in this new socialized stock market, so I guess puts will be more expensive to play but I think it will be a good shot to buy SKF next week into the expiration of the ban. I think that will be a super play.
CRAZY
Folks let me start by saying this is just crazy. The intervention into the markets is nothing further from Capitalism, which I thought the USA was based upon. The crazy acts that are being implemented by the FED and SEC is totally communistic and down right irresponsible to the tax payers.
I wont rant on about all of this because I am tired but all of this is going to end really bad when all is said and done. As usual it is a band aid on the problem of greed and self interest that plagues Wall Street.
On the matter of no shorting by the SEC, I have one point to make. Ok we shouldn't short therefore we should just buy, why not just make it extreme and make it be we must only buy and never sell any stock we buy. I mean this is just crazy!!!!!!! I think there are some people who think this will make the DOW reach 30000 but let me tell you a little story, if the DOW ever reaches 20000 which I think it will never the US Dollar will be worth 30 cent to the Euro, so it mean nothing in real purchasing power that your stocks are all all time highs.
I think we are heading to a very very dark place when all of this plays out and will only create another bubble and deflation YES deflation when it is all over. Now folks dont get it twisted this is all a political move because the election is in a few weeks and nothing more and the underline problems of the market will remain.
I hope I am wrong but sorry I WON'T BE...
With the news this evening, we should gap up huge and have alot of shorts covering going into the weekend, but I have one thing to say and that's it. They thought it was the bottom when they intervened in Bear Sterns, they thought is was the bottom with Fannie, they thought is was the bottom in Lehman, now they will think this is NOW the bottom again. This time their is no bullets left and the next time we sell off there will be no saving us.....
For now it was a good call yesterday to get out of all the shorts. Actually one hell of a call maybe the best I have made but we will see how far up they push us.
Have a great trading day tomorrow
MARKETJEDI
I wont rant on about all of this because I am tired but all of this is going to end really bad when all is said and done. As usual it is a band aid on the problem of greed and self interest that plagues Wall Street.
On the matter of no shorting by the SEC, I have one point to make. Ok we shouldn't short therefore we should just buy, why not just make it extreme and make it be we must only buy and never sell any stock we buy. I mean this is just crazy!!!!!!! I think there are some people who think this will make the DOW reach 30000 but let me tell you a little story, if the DOW ever reaches 20000 which I think it will never the US Dollar will be worth 30 cent to the Euro, so it mean nothing in real purchasing power that your stocks are all all time highs.
I think we are heading to a very very dark place when all of this plays out and will only create another bubble and deflation YES deflation when it is all over. Now folks dont get it twisted this is all a political move because the election is in a few weeks and nothing more and the underline problems of the market will remain.
I hope I am wrong but sorry I WON'T BE...
With the news this evening, we should gap up huge and have alot of shorts covering going into the weekend, but I have one thing to say and that's it. They thought it was the bottom when they intervened in Bear Sterns, they thought is was the bottom with Fannie, they thought is was the bottom in Lehman, now they will think this is NOW the bottom again. This time their is no bullets left and the next time we sell off there will be no saving us.....
For now it was a good call yesterday to get out of all the shorts. Actually one hell of a call maybe the best I have made but we will see how far up they push us.
Have a great trading day tomorrow
MARKETJEDI
Awesome
Just awesome, those who dont believe in technical analysis are plain STUPID. Spoke about it yesterday that everything was set up for us to bounce today and yep we did. I have no idea about tomorrow as we have options expiration so it is not a gimme what they will do.
As of now S&P should have a upside target of 1224 which is the .50 retracement then 1245 which would be a nice short again. Lets see how it plays out
As of now S&P should have a upside target of 1224 which is the .50 retracement then 1245 which would be a nice short again. Lets see how it plays out
Government Intervention
Government intervention being talked about in the Real estate market.
Just like what saved the great depression housing
Just like what saved the great depression housing
Squeezing us
WE traded into the zone and now they are pushing us higher. As noted this is strong support
Crushing us here
They are crushing us here-
1130-1142 is a zone of support on the S&P. I think that zones hold for a bounce
1130-1142 is a zone of support on the S&P. I think that zones hold for a bounce
More Credit Problems
Money market funds catering to institutionals are closing due to run on the funds by large investors
Early Upside
As spoken about last night the expect bounce is here. The buying seem to be heavy in the Futures so as I said last night I do expect a bounce in here. Question is how much and how long
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Why I think we might bounce in here
The VIX is a measure of volatility in the market and today it hit a yearly high. Usually a spike in the VIX is an indication of maximum fear and climax in a move to the downside. Based on this I wouldn't be surprised if we do bounce in here somewhere.
Friday is Triple witching of all options and futures. 9 out of 10 times if we have a bad down week triple witching the week after is usually horrible, so while I think we will bounce here I dont know how far and how long.
Next week might be the telling story of a real flush out. I will be watching
Friday is Triple witching of all options and futures. 9 out of 10 times if we have a bad down week triple witching the week after is usually horrible, so while I think we will bounce here I dont know how far and how long.
Next week might be the telling story of a real flush out. I will be watching
Okie Dokie
Fear is definitely in the market here but I think we might bounce. The bounce wont be heavy as I think the money to be made in this market for the next few years will definitely be on the short side PERIOD.
The main problem is is the greed and use of leverage in the market. One of the main reason we are in this bind is that leverage only works well when you are right! All the Investment Banks, hedge funds and traders were leveraged up to the wazoo that now that the market has turned against them they are losing money that is not even there!!!
People like Cramer has been telling people to buy GS and MS for months and that July lows were the absolute lows for the financials. Well Cramer investors how are you doing? How is his four Horsemen of tech, I will tell you, they are crushed. I think APPLE will be a $25 stock and GOOGLE is at its best a $150 stock.
Wachovia is up 10% after hours on a rumor that they will merge with MS. Oh ok, to me WB is going below $5 and so is Citibank. Yep go ahead and buy MS or WB on the news, just dont let me know :)
Tomorrow should be very very interesting. I think if gap up it is a given short but if they flush us early I would look for a push down to 10,500 and then some buying should come in.
Listen most of you might think I might be crazy but the DOW is going to 7500 in 24 months, mark it down. No saving up period and the Nasdaq will head to sub 1000. It is not going to be pretty but hey I am ugly and I am married to a beautiful woman so maybe the market is thinking the same, it wants a beautiful wife!!
The main problem is is the greed and use of leverage in the market. One of the main reason we are in this bind is that leverage only works well when you are right! All the Investment Banks, hedge funds and traders were leveraged up to the wazoo that now that the market has turned against them they are losing money that is not even there!!!
People like Cramer has been telling people to buy GS and MS for months and that July lows were the absolute lows for the financials. Well Cramer investors how are you doing? How is his four Horsemen of tech, I will tell you, they are crushed. I think APPLE will be a $25 stock and GOOGLE is at its best a $150 stock.
Wachovia is up 10% after hours on a rumor that they will merge with MS. Oh ok, to me WB is going below $5 and so is Citibank. Yep go ahead and buy MS or WB on the news, just dont let me know :)
Tomorrow should be very very interesting. I think if gap up it is a given short but if they flush us early I would look for a push down to 10,500 and then some buying should come in.
Listen most of you might think I might be crazy but the DOW is going to 7500 in 24 months, mark it down. No saving up period and the Nasdaq will head to sub 1000. It is not going to be pretty but hey I am ugly and I am married to a beautiful woman so maybe the market is thinking the same, it wants a beautiful wife!!
Selling
Market just in total sell mode. Nothing is safe here- We are goign to close at the lows of the day which is not good. Technicals are horrible I would not be terribly short here as this is usual a sign of a reflex rally coming
Goldman
GS just traded below $100. I guess I have to update my prediction, that one came too quick :)
Reversal is possible
Reversal is possible here from my indications. I am not jumping on it yet but if it does turn around I will be jumping on
Thought
If you are short here I would advice to take some profits as I think the downside is getting stretched. Who knows I didn't take much advantage of the downside today because I think we getting rubberbanded here and dont want to be short when people start to cover.
STAY NIMBLE
STAY NIMBLE
Wachovia
Seem like Wachovia looking for my ultimate target of $5 sooner than later. The stock is battered here down 24%. No saving that one for sure. Wachovia will never see $20 again without a buyout.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Down we go. They are selling everything here. I am hearing people are taking there money out of Mutual Funds so obviously we have some forced selling, but hey we still have more to go
More Prediction
Update on GS. Predicted early this year GS would see $125, since it is now below that level I have a new target.
$100.
YEP it will crack $100
MARKETJEDI !!!
$100.
YEP it will crack $100
MARKETJEDI !!!
Prediction
Citibank and Wachovia will see new lows in the next 6 weeks.
Citibank I think can goto $10 and Wachovia down to $7.50.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE
Citibank I think can goto $10 and Wachovia down to $7.50.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE
No Bounce
No real bounce off the gap down. This is not pretty with the huge bail out of AIG. This is just crazy that the FED is run by a bunch of moronS and self interest bankers. The US is no doubt in a recession and possibly can go into a depression. Is this the last of Wall Street??? I will be writing a long note this weekend on where I think Wall Street will be in a few years. Stay Tuned!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Fed Announcement
Wow what a wild day so far. News moving information swinging the market all over the map. We have the FED announcement @ 2:15 so I expect it to get real quite during lunch time.
TRADE CALL UPDATE: RUL ML
Wow trading @$19.95 we bought $10 lower. A DOUBLE right here and now.
I would take it off here if you dont have the patience
I would take it off here if you dont have the patience
GS- Earnings
Just reported. Geez I guess we will hit $125 before the open. Great call Cramer and the Fast Money gang. Marketjedi won again.
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was right. I trust most of you folks heeded what I've been preaching for a long time here. The stock market is NOT going up in any meaningful manner, other than short covering rallies, for a LONG LONG LONG LONG time. Figure 2012 as a good target. The stock market is going to be at least 4000 points lower, potentially more. The entire financial system as we know it is going to be caput, it already is but no one wants to admit it.
GS reports in the am, I say GS sees $50 or less by years end now. I think you can kiss the ENTIRE sector goodbye. BSC, LEH, MER (what crack was BOA smoking?) - all DONE. MS, GS, LM and others to follow. Like I've also said, I WISH (trust me) I was wrong about this. That would have been wonderful. I would much rather have everyone say I SUCK! Then have the market just totally destroyed.
This is going to get so much more worse than anyone can imagine. This is the REAL DISASTER, folks. The Fed can cut rates to zero and pump 10 TRILLION into the markets, it won't matter. Think about this, when most of the financial district in NYC is a ghost town, what happens to real estate in NYC? What happens to the rest of the country?
The senate is trying to pass another $50 BIL "stimulus" package to send people $500 checks! Wonderful. As I've said, the only thing that is going to happen is that WE, the tax payers will be on the hook for up to TRILLIONS, so giving back $50 BIL is similar to like taxpayers paying themselves! And, what's scary is that both candidates are basically for the stimulus package because they want to look like "heros". Since all these bailouts and failures get kicked back to the taxpayer, then how could it matter to give you your own money!
It's sickening. And, what's really sickening is that it could have been prevented, or at least dealt with to stem is sooner and have shorter lasting effects. I'm a nobody but I am SO sure I had this nailed on what to do. And, if thats the case then clearly the powers that be just aren't listening to people who do have some real ideas outside of throwing more bad money after bad money!
When the dust settles the financial landscape is going to be so vastly different. There is simply no way that we can come out of this ok, without huge scars.
The Fed will cut at least .25 and maybe .50 Tuesday, it won't mean anything unfortunately, and any rally is going to be just a tease. Russell still has 50% to go to be priced correctly. And, we're probably headed toward some runs on some banks shortly. It's going to get ugly and its going to get much more ugly than people want to see.
C and WB looks next. MS and GS will join them. Watch AFL and other insurers, that sector could get a huge haircut next as well. I like AFL short.
OK, so now that I've beat you all over the head with gloom and doom, let's look at some stuff here. It's Tuesday and as you know we often get Turnaround Tuesday! We've also "only" 900 points away from REALLY big support at 10,000, which I think we break down to SOON. Actually, futures are down 150ish as I write this, so we're only 800 points away from 10,000 and lower!
ANYONE who is buying financials here is an idiot. I'll state that as a fact. It's amazing that anyone would be foolish enough to buy them for anything other than a short covering rally.
Watch us tomorrow, it is so key what we do Tuesday post GS earnings. I suspect GS will see sub $125 tomorrow or this week, but I guess its possible they will blow out and go higher. Today on CNBC Merridith Whitney, who's been dead on through all this said that she feels C and WB are in a world of trouble. IF C and WB "fail" and have to be bailed out, SKF should be $200 minimum. I am shocked we weren't down 1000 Monday, I really am. Nikkei is down 600 points as I write this. The markets are getting CRACKED throughout the world.
OK, there ya have it, I've been clear, I remain BEARISH even when we bounce. BUT, if we get a nice gap down, I'll still be looking for entries to the long side for a bounce more than likely! THat's cause I'm a TRADER and you should be one as well!
MARKETJEDI
GS reports in the am, I say GS sees $50 or less by years end now. I think you can kiss the ENTIRE sector goodbye. BSC, LEH, MER (what crack was BOA smoking?) - all DONE. MS, GS, LM and others to follow. Like I've also said, I WISH (trust me) I was wrong about this. That would have been wonderful. I would much rather have everyone say I SUCK! Then have the market just totally destroyed.
This is going to get so much more worse than anyone can imagine. This is the REAL DISASTER, folks. The Fed can cut rates to zero and pump 10 TRILLION into the markets, it won't matter. Think about this, when most of the financial district in NYC is a ghost town, what happens to real estate in NYC? What happens to the rest of the country?
The senate is trying to pass another $50 BIL "stimulus" package to send people $500 checks! Wonderful. As I've said, the only thing that is going to happen is that WE, the tax payers will be on the hook for up to TRILLIONS, so giving back $50 BIL is similar to like taxpayers paying themselves! And, what's scary is that both candidates are basically for the stimulus package because they want to look like "heros". Since all these bailouts and failures get kicked back to the taxpayer, then how could it matter to give you your own money!
It's sickening. And, what's really sickening is that it could have been prevented, or at least dealt with to stem is sooner and have shorter lasting effects. I'm a nobody but I am SO sure I had this nailed on what to do. And, if thats the case then clearly the powers that be just aren't listening to people who do have some real ideas outside of throwing more bad money after bad money!
When the dust settles the financial landscape is going to be so vastly different. There is simply no way that we can come out of this ok, without huge scars.
The Fed will cut at least .25 and maybe .50 Tuesday, it won't mean anything unfortunately, and any rally is going to be just a tease. Russell still has 50% to go to be priced correctly. And, we're probably headed toward some runs on some banks shortly. It's going to get ugly and its going to get much more ugly than people want to see.
C and WB looks next. MS and GS will join them. Watch AFL and other insurers, that sector could get a huge haircut next as well. I like AFL short.
OK, so now that I've beat you all over the head with gloom and doom, let's look at some stuff here. It's Tuesday and as you know we often get Turnaround Tuesday! We've also "only" 900 points away from REALLY big support at 10,000, which I think we break down to SOON. Actually, futures are down 150ish as I write this, so we're only 800 points away from 10,000 and lower!
ANYONE who is buying financials here is an idiot. I'll state that as a fact. It's amazing that anyone would be foolish enough to buy them for anything other than a short covering rally.
Watch us tomorrow, it is so key what we do Tuesday post GS earnings. I suspect GS will see sub $125 tomorrow or this week, but I guess its possible they will blow out and go higher. Today on CNBC Merridith Whitney, who's been dead on through all this said that she feels C and WB are in a world of trouble. IF C and WB "fail" and have to be bailed out, SKF should be $200 minimum. I am shocked we weren't down 1000 Monday, I really am. Nikkei is down 600 points as I write this. The markets are getting CRACKED throughout the world.
OK, there ya have it, I've been clear, I remain BEARISH even when we bounce. BUT, if we get a nice gap down, I'll still be looking for entries to the long side for a bounce more than likely! THat's cause I'm a TRADER and you should be one as well!
MARKETJEDI
Monday, September 15, 2008
The main problem
The stock market is being used as a source of funds right now which is not good....the largest players in the equity market have major major capital issues right now....AIG needs $70 Billion to survive, that is a HUGE number (Goldmans entire market cap is $53B...they basically need a Goldman and a half) and they are just one major player.....this is the point where stocks are no longer viewed as representing ownership in fundamentally sound companies but rather as a mere source of funds...a way to raise cash....you sell stock you get cash, thats what they need cash.....this is when it gets scary and stock markets crash, its when people become fearful of owning stocks as an asset class. after todays action you can tell real fear is developing in the market and people are really JUST starting to get a bit nervous about owning stocks....you're starting to see stocks that were worth $60-70/share go to zero....and these arent just any stocks, they were the biggest balls in the market....people are starting to think about what they own and what its really worth if panic sets in....i mean is it that far fetched to see AAPL selling in the 90s....the big boys could sell that stock off another 40 points down to $100 and funds would still be getting out with a profit...thats how you have to think right now....think about how much fund ownership your stocks have and know that those funds are having major problems and need cash.
Not my WORDS but thought I would post it here because it is true
MARKETJEDI
Not my WORDS but thought I would post it here because it is true
MARKETJEDI
S&P levels to watch
1169 and 1143 then below that 1130 levels to watch as support on the S&P. We are getting cracked here overnight in the futures obviously from the Asian market re opening.
TESTIMONIAL !!!!!!!!!!!!
Just got an email from a reader of my blog. Here is a copy.
Hey Jedi,
I stumbled upon your blog while making a blog for myself. I followed your blog for about 3 months before I traded off your calls and guidance. I have one word for you 'ACCURATE'. I have never seen such guided play hit with such accuracy. I think I have only seen one loser since following your blog for the last 5 months. Your calls on SKF were just amazing and the call for technology weakness was just too scary on the point.
I would pay for this information and would love to talk to you about the markets when you have time.
T.J.D.
Loyal follower
Hey Jedi,
I stumbled upon your blog while making a blog for myself. I followed your blog for about 3 months before I traded off your calls and guidance. I have one word for you 'ACCURATE'. I have never seen such guided play hit with such accuracy. I think I have only seen one loser since following your blog for the last 5 months. Your calls on SKF were just amazing and the call for technology weakness was just too scary on the point.
I would pay for this information and would love to talk to you about the markets when you have time.
T.J.D.
Loyal follower
Crack me up
I was in total lauhghter this evening listening to Fast Money. I mean do these guys make any money? They said time and time again that the financials have bottomed and one said he got his head handed to him today buying Goldman. Told you guys before when they were talking about $150 is a floor for Goldman, I said no way! GS will see $125. They have earnings report in the morning s we will see what they have to report on their books.
What is scary here is that I was reading today how many cross relationship some of these firms have. Citibank has a huge interest in AIG through preferred and if that one FAILS, we will see another domino effect in the financials. Let me be straight as possible we are nowhere at a bottom. I am very sure we will bounce tomorrow sometime or wednesday but it will be another chance to short.
Anyone notice Citibank and Wachovia today. Citibank had 125k puts bought at the $15 level expiring this week, that's just bearish. I have never seen such put action on Citibank before. Wachovia down 25% today looks like it might hit my $7 level very very soon, just death all over.
About two weeks ago JIM CRAMER announced his best bank bets :) WHAT A JOKE. Maybe he thought of saying best banks to fail :) man oh man ! what a call. Death all over the financials. SKF was up like $20 today. I suck I only got $9 profit from it but oh well.
I am very light here as I think we will get a rubber band bounce soon and I dont want to be heavily short and I would advise all to do the same.
We rocking and rolling if you follow the calls here for sure.
What is scary here is that I was reading today how many cross relationship some of these firms have. Citibank has a huge interest in AIG through preferred and if that one FAILS, we will see another domino effect in the financials. Let me be straight as possible we are nowhere at a bottom. I am very sure we will bounce tomorrow sometime or wednesday but it will be another chance to short.
Anyone notice Citibank and Wachovia today. Citibank had 125k puts bought at the $15 level expiring this week, that's just bearish. I have never seen such put action on Citibank before. Wachovia down 25% today looks like it might hit my $7 level very very soon, just death all over.
About two weeks ago JIM CRAMER announced his best bank bets :) WHAT A JOKE. Maybe he thought of saying best banks to fail :) man oh man ! what a call. Death all over the financials. SKF was up like $20 today. I suck I only got $9 profit from it but oh well.
I am very light here as I think we will get a rubber band bounce soon and I dont want to be heavily short and I would advise all to do the same.
We rocking and rolling if you follow the calls here for sure.
Goldman
Goldman Sachs getting killed here - I guess nobody wants to hold in to there earnings tomorrow
Something to remember
Something to remember here folks. Asian markets are closed as as such the market is being held at this level by the Wall streeters. I assume when the markets are opening in Asia tonight we will get another wave of selling which should send us down early tomorrow.
Tomorrow IF we get a huge gap down it might be a gift for the fast trading longs as many might see this as capitulation
Tomorrow IF we get a huge gap down it might be a gift for the fast trading longs as many might see this as capitulation
LEHMAN
Lehman brothers is now trading @ 23 cents. WOW just like that and it is over for those Wall Street guys
Excellent morning
Excellent morning for the open plays- I would think about selling some TWM, SKF and cover some more GS if you have any.
ONLY HUGE WINNERS HERE AND I MEAN HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
ONLY HUGE WINNERS HERE AND I MEAN HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Warned You!!!!
Bear Sterns, Fannie, Freddie, now Lehman and Merryll and next it WILL be Citibank, Goldman, Legg Mason, Wachovia. I told you it is going to be a nightmare but I got the usual oh man you are just crazy and too much of a bear. Oh well I was just trying to help. Folks there is alot of downside here and I really mean alot. The DOW has 4000 points on the downside and sorry people we ain't seeing 14000 on the DOW for years. The nasdaq can go down 50% from here.
Can't stop the force for this downside and we haven't even started yet believe me. This market is ready to CRACK major. Don't buy DON'T BUY.
Can't stop the force for this downside and we haven't even started yet believe me. This market is ready to CRACK major. Don't buy DON'T BUY.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Death all over
Wow LEHMAN going to file for BK. Wow this is great lets just make JP Morgan take over everyone and run the country :) just joking. We are in serious trouble here folks economically, futures are down over 320 points on the DOW as of 8: pm sunday night. What do we do? Well I have been saying for awhile DONT touch financials, I am sure many will say this is the bottom but I think the financials are dead and wont make money for another 3-4 years.
I am think for sure after tomorrow everyone will come out and say we will test the July lows but I will say this again we will see and blow through the July lows, as it is my opinion we are going much lower.
I have some TWM (Russell ultrashort) and SKF (very small) and a few options which should open up nicely tomorrow. I might consider taking 1/2 off as the fast money might want to try and pick bottoms here.
Tomorrow should be crazy that's all I know :
MARKETJEDI
I am think for sure after tomorrow everyone will come out and say we will test the July lows but I will say this again we will see and blow through the July lows, as it is my opinion we are going much lower.
I have some TWM (Russell ultrashort) and SKF (very small) and a few options which should open up nicely tomorrow. I might consider taking 1/2 off as the fast money might want to try and pick bottoms here.
Tomorrow should be crazy that's all I know :
MARKETJEDI
Friday, September 12, 2008
Friday Morning
Well with 15 minutes go to all they are talking about is LEH demise. Hope that helps our MER puts which are a DOUBLE. Lets see how they move us after the first hour or they want us much lower. Yesterday rally was BS, it was just a 9-11 rally believe me. Today will tell the real story.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Thoughts
Ok here folks. Here is the deal. We got a rally off the test of the July lows on the S&P today and yep many will say it was the bottom again. EEEEE nope WRONG, not so easy. The most we hope for is 1305 on the S&P which is possible if we can get in gear but it will only trigger selling.
Today the RUSSELL struggled to get into positive territory, that to me says alot. Again 750 SHOULD once again be resistance but I might take 735 as I don't know if we can really get a push higher. We got our 9-11 rally lets see what we do tomorrow. I think if we gap up we can safely short it especially the banks and the RUSSELL if you trade futures.
We rocking here on the BLOG folks, the winners are racking up some huge percentage.
Today the RUSSELL struggled to get into positive territory, that to me says alot. Again 750 SHOULD once again be resistance but I might take 735 as I don't know if we can really get a push higher. We got our 9-11 rally lets see what we do tomorrow. I think if we gap up we can safely short it especially the banks and the RUSSELL if you trade futures.
We rocking here on the BLOG folks, the winners are racking up some huge percentage.
S&P Lows
We are trading almost at the July lows in the S&P pre market this is bad really bad. Lets see what they want to do. Do we get a 9-11 bounce or do they flush us down the drain.
July lows were 1214
July lows were 1214
MER -What a JOKE
Yesterday I wrote about a floor trader saying MER can't go below $22.50. Well it is bidding $21.65 pre market :)
See you in the teens MER :):)
MARKETJEDI
See you in the teens MER :):)
MARKETJEDI
9-11
I strongly believe that if we dont get a rally today we are doomed to get a huge flush very soon. I would not be surprised to see us get that big down day I spoke about early summer of 700-1000 points.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Election Year
Election Years are usually positive years in the market but late last year I got to start thinking we are doomed and no election can save us. I have been correct so far on this notion and obviously it would take some miraculous event to send us positive on the year on all the indices. Maybe they catch Bin Laden and then everyone will think that mean the mortgage market is ok and we now have all the banks good. That damn Bin Laden holding down our stocks :):):).
We look anemic here as the bounces come hard but have no staying power, almost like some old guy on viagara, so I have been told :). Tomorrow is 9-11 and I am sure they will try and be patriotic and keep the markets green but geez I dont know if Wall Street even cares about 9-11 anymore with all the chaos on the street. Greenspan said yesterday on CNBC that we are in a very unusual state and this is a once in a century phenomenon and I believe him.
MARKETJEDI
We look anemic here as the bounces come hard but have no staying power, almost like some old guy on viagara, so I have been told :). Tomorrow is 9-11 and I am sure they will try and be patriotic and keep the markets green but geez I dont know if Wall Street even cares about 9-11 anymore with all the chaos on the street. Greenspan said yesterday on CNBC that we are in a very unusual state and this is a once in a century phenomenon and I believe him.
MARKETJEDI
MER
I heard someone on the NYSE floor saying there is no way MER can go below $22.50 because of some announcement they did back in July, I guess some capital infusion. I have to do some research on this BUT my play stands on the MER puts. I think MER cracks $20 here easily.
MER at its best is worth $7 yes $7. with negative EPS and a market value of 36Billion this values MER in single digits.
Goldman downgraded MER with a price target of $22 in a year but when we break $20, we will be going straight to $10.
MER at its best is worth $7 yes $7. with negative EPS and a market value of 36Billion this values MER in single digits.
Goldman downgraded MER with a price target of $22 in a year but when we break $20, we will be going straight to $10.
OK Dookie
This is a copy of the post I did on July 12, 2008 on the 5 banks I thought might go belly up ::
Okie Dokie
We just had our first bankruptcy of a slew which will happen in the near future in INdyMac. This is going to be one tough road for the bank and I STILL think a regional bank will fail. I was ask last week who I think will fail and my list are as follows:
No.1 candidate is WM (Washington Mutual)
No.2 SOV (Sovereign Bank)
No.3 DSL (Downey Financial)
No.4 NCC (National City)
No.5 STI (Suntrust).
My list still STANDS and the #1 WM looks like they are in deep trouble with the stock dropping 30% today to a 17 year low.
I know the tv guys are saying July was the lows but whoever believes that is in DENIAL of the true situation we are in.
MARKETJEDI
Okie Dokie
We just had our first bankruptcy of a slew which will happen in the near future in INdyMac. This is going to be one tough road for the bank and I STILL think a regional bank will fail. I was ask last week who I think will fail and my list are as follows:
No.1 candidate is WM (Washington Mutual)
No.2 SOV (Sovereign Bank)
No.3 DSL (Downey Financial)
No.4 NCC (National City)
No.5 STI (Suntrust).
My list still STANDS and the #1 WM looks like they are in deep trouble with the stock dropping 30% today to a 17 year low.
I know the tv guys are saying July was the lows but whoever believes that is in DENIAL of the true situation we are in.
MARKETJEDI
FUTURES TRADERS
Remember the future contract move to december trading tomorrow. (Z08)
Only ER will still be U08 as it will change over to the ICE exchange on the 18th I believe
Only ER will still be U08 as it will change over to the ICE exchange on the 18th I believe
Bear Market Rally
Wow we are truly in a bear market. All rallies should be sold period!!! We going lower folks the banks are just in trouble and tech is beginning to collapse. Commodities have been cracking the last few weeks and as such we have no leadership in the upside in the market. I think we go to 10500 in a rush, could be this week or next I wouldn't be surprised.
Call me crazy but I think we will be in the 9000s very very soon oh yes. Same craziness when I called FNM to $5 or less when it was $32 and same craziness when I called SKF @$90 to $170.
Time to face reality folks and not buy stocks. You want to buy?? buy ultrashort ETF's and you will be happy.
Banks are going lower have your pick, BAC, C, MER, GS, WB, WM, SOV, they are all dead with broken business plans, it is as simple as that. The models have broken and there is no turn around in sight.
How are we doing this past 2 weeks????
RIMM Puts up 100%
SKF Options up huge
ZION short +$2.50 in a day
TWM + $3.50. Holding this one for much higher.
We only have winners here on this blog Period.
MARKETJEDI
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/
Call me crazy but I think we will be in the 9000s very very soon oh yes. Same craziness when I called FNM to $5 or less when it was $32 and same craziness when I called SKF @$90 to $170.
Time to face reality folks and not buy stocks. You want to buy?? buy ultrashort ETF's and you will be happy.
Banks are going lower have your pick, BAC, C, MER, GS, WB, WM, SOV, they are all dead with broken business plans, it is as simple as that. The models have broken and there is no turn around in sight.
How are we doing this past 2 weeks????
RIMM Puts up 100%
SKF Options up huge
ZION short +$2.50 in a day
TWM + $3.50. Holding this one for much higher.
We only have winners here on this blog Period.
MARKETJEDI
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
TRADE CALL:RIMM PUTS
RUL ML the RIMM January puts are just about a 100% winner in a couple of days.
I am letting it ride here. I think I want a 200% winner!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE
MARKETJEDI
I am letting it ride here. I think I want a 200% winner!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE
MARKETJEDI
SPY analysis
A break of 1232 should lead us to the lows of friday of 1217. Do we flush it out today or will we see it tomorrow.
TRADE CALL Update : ZION
Already +$2. Take half off +$3 and ride this rest with a break even from there.
ONLY WINNERS
MARKETJEDI
ONLY WINNERS
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday Morning
I will not be here for the first hour of the morning but I should be back by 11 am.
Oil looks lower and any substantial gap up should be faded. I still think 1305 is the upside magnet on the S&P and 755 on the ER should be resistance.
Oil looks lower and any substantial gap up should be faded. I still think 1305 is the upside magnet on the S&P and 755 on the ER should be resistance.
Monday, September 8, 2008
FNM
HAHAHAHA- Have to laugh- CRAMER Marketjedi won. Cramer was telling people FNM going higher now it is 86 cents!!!!!!
Bye Bye FNM.
Prediction- Write is down now. Some of these regional banks WILL fail.
Bye Bye FNM.
Prediction- Write is down now. Some of these regional banks WILL fail.
FNM-More predictions
FNM everyone who been reading know I called it to zero, I think $1 is close enough. Now my second favorite short SOV needs to be watched here. I think it goes sub $3 yes!. I dont know when but I think SOV is a death waiting to happen. We iwll see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
LEH prediction
As many of you know I have been very bearish on the investment banks. The news now developing of LEH selling Berman is obvious that these companies are so strapped for cash they need to sell their best assets.
I think there is a good change LEH will not exist in another 18 months
I think there is a good change LEH will not exist in another 18 months
TRADE CALL UPDATE : RIMM PUTS
They are up 55% since last week tuesday if you have more than 1 I would take 1/2 off here and ride the rest. RIMM looks dead here.
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Ok Folks
The rally didn't fool big money today. We have sold off from the huge gap up this morning. Presently tech is dead and GOOG and AAPL looks lower. I expect GOOG is see sub $400 here on a push down before end of month.
Stay smart and light here for now. The news is heavy out there
Stay smart and light here for now. The news is heavy out there
Sunday, September 7, 2008
S&P futures open
Well overnight futures here seem like we will open on a huge upside tomorrow. Does it hold or not is the question. I think the same thing will happen like the first FED intervention, we pop only to drop back to a level lower than the intervention. This I think is a heaven sent if you play the short side.
I have a plan wish I will spell out tomorrow but for now resistance should be 755 on the RUSSELL and 1300 again on the S&P. I hope we get a push higher than that if the rally does hold for a few days as it should be easy pickings. DOW resistance should be in the 11700 area if we can reach that level.
I am hoping for a open above 220 points tomorrow and a 40-50 point lift after to short on the DOW or a push into that 1272/75 area for a short opt which was short term support a few days ago.
I have a plan wish I will spell out tomorrow but for now resistance should be 755 on the RUSSELL and 1300 again on the S&P. I hope we get a push higher than that if the rally does hold for a few days as it should be easy pickings. DOW resistance should be in the 11700 area if we can reach that level.
I am hoping for a open above 220 points tomorrow and a 40-50 point lift after to short on the DOW or a push into that 1272/75 area for a short opt which was short term support a few days ago.
FED SAVES THE DAY!
NOT!
Once again the Fed has interfered with the capital markets in a destructive way. While I am all for the Fed supporting the system in a constructive way, the notion that the Fed is now going to stem the drop in home prices is absurd and irresponsible.
Further, it will lead to even more bank failures. And, finally, it's good we now live in a socialist country. Since that's the case, the government should start by paying for my health care! I never thought I would see a Republican administration act more liberal than both Demoncrats and are more closely aligned with communism then they are their own party edicts. And, I'm not a Republican, frankly these days I would like to start my own party. It'll be something like the "Real Thinkers" party. I think I can run for President with my platform being that I'll just shoot for the hip. At least I'll be honest about it.
I love SKF if it can dip to $100. That's severely strong support and while the market is capable of once again misinterpreting this Fed move with FNM and FRE, which was a given and anticipated by EVERYONE anyway, ultimately we should end up right where we always have in this bear market. We get a pop off a stupid Fed strategy and then we head even lower. I think this large gap up, assuming it holds from Friday, is very fadeable. Not sure we just die Monday, maybe we get a bounce that lasts a few days even, but ultimately we should be under 11,000 (I think under 10,500) sometime in September.
Another large regional bank was taken over by the Fed this week in Georgia. There are going to be 100s if not 1000s of such shutdowns and takeovers before this is over. The Fed can't bail out the world and we are unfortunately now keenly entrenched in a global recession and probably depression. The Fed should back up FNM and FRE debt. They have to, but they certainly should not be trying to prop up the real estate market. The notion that the Fed adjusting everyone's mortgage to keep people in homes they can't afford is patently irresponsible and it also rewards, at tax payer expense, people who simply made bad investments. At least it appears they will not be bailing out shareholders of FNM and FRE, so those two stocks should head to the ZERO I said they both would months ago.
This is VERY bearish (ultimately) move by the Fed for the market, particularly the banking sector. What the Fed has made clear now, with BSC and FNM and FRE is that they will willingly bail out the system, but they won't (at least up till now) bail out shareholders. So, when C or JPM or LEH or MER or WB or (for sure) WM are ready to fold, and many will, the Fed will bail out the debt, but they won't pump up the stock prices. So, these stocks remain GREAT shorts. Look at SKF, its only about 30% off the 52 week lows. It's already pricing in a recovery, which is absurd and completely disconnected from reality.
I said Friday would be interesting and we should get a bounce, and we did. This week will be very telling. If we can not hold a gap on Monday we should see under 11,000 very soon, probably this week. The Fed is quickly running out of bullets and the world's economy and markets are crumbling. To think we are immune is, as always, Rose colored thinking and doomed to failure. Use any strength here to sell your investments is my call, and if SKF sees $100 I would look to take the Oct. or Nov. $100 or $110 calls and hold them. Tech is really starting to roll over here, even with the late day pop, AAPL and GOOG both were down decently. I would watch them for further weakness
Once again the Fed has interfered with the capital markets in a destructive way. While I am all for the Fed supporting the system in a constructive way, the notion that the Fed is now going to stem the drop in home prices is absurd and irresponsible.
Further, it will lead to even more bank failures. And, finally, it's good we now live in a socialist country. Since that's the case, the government should start by paying for my health care! I never thought I would see a Republican administration act more liberal than both Demoncrats and are more closely aligned with communism then they are their own party edicts. And, I'm not a Republican, frankly these days I would like to start my own party. It'll be something like the "Real Thinkers" party. I think I can run for President with my platform being that I'll just shoot for the hip. At least I'll be honest about it.
I love SKF if it can dip to $100. That's severely strong support and while the market is capable of once again misinterpreting this Fed move with FNM and FRE, which was a given and anticipated by EVERYONE anyway, ultimately we should end up right where we always have in this bear market. We get a pop off a stupid Fed strategy and then we head even lower. I think this large gap up, assuming it holds from Friday, is very fadeable. Not sure we just die Monday, maybe we get a bounce that lasts a few days even, but ultimately we should be under 11,000 (I think under 10,500) sometime in September.
Another large regional bank was taken over by the Fed this week in Georgia. There are going to be 100s if not 1000s of such shutdowns and takeovers before this is over. The Fed can't bail out the world and we are unfortunately now keenly entrenched in a global recession and probably depression. The Fed should back up FNM and FRE debt. They have to, but they certainly should not be trying to prop up the real estate market. The notion that the Fed adjusting everyone's mortgage to keep people in homes they can't afford is patently irresponsible and it also rewards, at tax payer expense, people who simply made bad investments. At least it appears they will not be bailing out shareholders of FNM and FRE, so those two stocks should head to the ZERO I said they both would months ago.
This is VERY bearish (ultimately) move by the Fed for the market, particularly the banking sector. What the Fed has made clear now, with BSC and FNM and FRE is that they will willingly bail out the system, but they won't (at least up till now) bail out shareholders. So, when C or JPM or LEH or MER or WB or (for sure) WM are ready to fold, and many will, the Fed will bail out the debt, but they won't pump up the stock prices. So, these stocks remain GREAT shorts. Look at SKF, its only about 30% off the 52 week lows. It's already pricing in a recovery, which is absurd and completely disconnected from reality.
I said Friday would be interesting and we should get a bounce, and we did. This week will be very telling. If we can not hold a gap on Monday we should see under 11,000 very soon, probably this week. The Fed is quickly running out of bullets and the world's economy and markets are crumbling. To think we are immune is, as always, Rose colored thinking and doomed to failure. Use any strength here to sell your investments is my call, and if SKF sees $100 I would look to take the Oct. or Nov. $100 or $110 calls and hold them. Tech is really starting to roll over here, even with the late day pop, AAPL and GOOG both were down decently. I would watch them for further weakness
Friday, September 5, 2008
DOW 10K
We are just above the 10k level again. I think next week we get a early bounce then crash and burn. Who know just a guess
Job Numbers-
We just got a reading of 6.1% unemployment. There is a possibility that we could see a number approaching 7.5%-8% when all is said and done.
TRADE CALL UPDATES: RIMM, GS
RIMM getting killed before the open on the weak job numbers. Down below the magic $105 so should be great for the puts.
GS is now in the money on the short $5. I think we can get some more so let this one ride here.
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
GS is now in the money on the short $5. I think we can get some more so let this one ride here.
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Job Numbers
WOW they sucked- Unemployment rate is at the highest level in 5 years. Geez what a crapping economic environment we are in. What went wrong since 2000 where we had a surplus and record employment. Oh well I know and you know !!!
Oh well. indices wont have much upside with all these bad data. We are oversold so I would expect a bounce but all bounces should be shorted
Oh well. indices wont have much upside with all these bad data. We are oversold so I would expect a bounce but all bounces should be shorted
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Bank of America News
Bank of America news is not good. There is going to be heavy investigation into this and possible lawsuits from investors through BAC.
Bank of America
The New York attorney General has subpoena 8 Bank of America executives in Auction Rate security Probe.
Again dont trust the big guys.
They are all scumbags
MARKETJEDI
Again dont trust the big guys.
They are all scumbags
MARKETJEDI
Rumors
Rumors are mounting after the market close that some huge hedge funds are in trouble and are trying to unwind positions as they are closing. Another problem is the banks in Europe are saying their housing debt problems are more problematic than they originally thought.
Lets see what happens in the next few sessions. I think we are just at the bringing of the bad news, Bear Sterns was the warning shot in the sky and now the real unraveling will begin soon.
Commodities are cracked and tech looks like it is just starting to roll over. There will be no where to hide soon and if you dont want to play on the short side I am sorry to say you are just foolish.
The bump up in the bank stocks was just that a bump. I think they will be in a world of hurt soon very soon. We haven't seen anything yet.
MARKETJEDI
Lets see what happens in the next few sessions. I think we are just at the bringing of the bad news, Bear Sterns was the warning shot in the sky and now the real unraveling will begin soon.
Commodities are cracked and tech looks like it is just starting to roll over. There will be no where to hide soon and if you dont want to play on the short side I am sorry to say you are just foolish.
The bump up in the bank stocks was just that a bump. I think they will be in a world of hurt soon very soon. We haven't seen anything yet.
MARKETJEDI
Job Numbers- Tomorrow
Tomorrow should be exciting!!! 8:30 we have the job numbers and traders were already selling today before the numbers. We are short term oversold here so be careful but I would love to see a wash out here so we can get a decent bounce to reshort again. One thing to note here is everyone is watching the July lows. I believe we will hit them again, the DOW should hit it first then the S&P, then the Russell.
Russell if we bounce 750 area once again should be heavy resistance. I think we will see DOW 10600 here soon but who knows!
Today was great for me as I was long the ultrashort shares of TWM and SKF but I messed up some futures trading adding to a losing trade and then got stopped out. Always follow the rules but I was just being a knucklehead.
Well I will be posting 8:30 tomorrow.
OH- How you like RIMM SHORT??????
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Russell if we bounce 750 area once again should be heavy resistance. I think we will see DOW 10600 here soon but who knows!
Today was great for me as I was long the ultrashort shares of TWM and SKF but I messed up some futures trading adding to a losing trade and then got stopped out. Always follow the rules but I was just being a knucklehead.
Well I will be posting 8:30 tomorrow.
OH- How you like RIMM SHORT??????
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
TRADE UPDATE: RIMM puts
That was fast money. they are now bidding $13.10 on them. we bought yesterday at $9.10
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TRADE UPDATE: RIMM puts
Bought yesterday @ 9.20 they are currently $12.60. Lets see if the stock can break that magic $105
Selling again
Seem like the traders are back from the holidays in a selling mood.
S&P broke important 1262 level and RUSSELL looking to break 725, two critical levels
S&P broke important 1262 level and RUSSELL looking to break 725, two critical levels
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Commodities dead??
Are the commodities plays dead. I dont know but what I do know is that many of the hedge funds that are in trouble were in this crowded space. If I am correct on this and they are caught in losses commodities trades the space can definitely go lower. The trick is to find out which are of commodities the failing hedgies are heavily involved in.
Right now the following commodity related stocks look like they are on life support.
JRCC
X
APA
FCX.
I am not playing these as I am just barely trading as the market seems like it is waiting to tip it hands either way and I am waiting. I am a bear longer term but that doesn't mean we can't do higher short term. I think there is still a shot the bulls try for that 1325 area but for now we look weak, so who knows.
Stay small as I think we will soon get in gear and rack up some nice profits.
MARKETJEDI
Right now the following commodity related stocks look like they are on life support.
JRCC
X
APA
FCX.
I am not playing these as I am just barely trading as the market seems like it is waiting to tip it hands either way and I am waiting. I am a bear longer term but that doesn't mean we can't do higher short term. I think there is still a shot the bulls try for that 1325 area but for now we look weak, so who knows.
Stay small as I think we will soon get in gear and rack up some nice profits.
MARKETJEDI
Market
Once again market internals are weak, very weak. I am staying with my plays and shorting the futures from this morning, make sense.
SKF looks like a 1/2 share buy here
SKF looks like a 1/2 share buy here
TRADE CALL: SNDK $15 January Puts
Ticker is SWQ MC.
SNDK is dead money. I think good chance this one sees sub $10 before January. The January $25 puts here looks ok in terms of premium. Don't play heavy but I think excellent risk reward on this one.
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
SNDK is dead money. I think good chance this one sees sub $10 before January. The January $25 puts here looks ok in terms of premium. Don't play heavy but I think excellent risk reward on this one.
We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Oil traders
For those who trade Oil. $102.50 is a number to watch for some support. How much bounce we get off that number if any we will see. A breach below will break the back of the Oil bulls
Hedge Funds
The darlings of the financial world in the last few years have been hedge funds. Many though have been going out of business in the past 18 months and I believe more will in the next few years.
This morning The Ospraie Fund a $3.8 billion commodity fund is shutting down. They are down about 38% YTD and LEH owns 20%. LEH seem to own a number of worthless entities lol.
I do believe we are at the beginning of the implosion of the hedgies.
MARKETJEDI
This morning The Ospraie Fund a $3.8 billion commodity fund is shutting down. They are down about 38% YTD and LEH owns 20%. LEH seem to own a number of worthless entities lol.
I do believe we are at the beginning of the implosion of the hedgies.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL: GS Short ($162)
Yes Goldman got downgraded again this morning. I think this stock should see $125 within the year.
Make sure you use wide stops but I think we can see $150 in a rush if we break $162.
Make sure you use wide stops but I think we can see $150 in a rush if we break $162.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
300 points
300 Points turn around in the DOW - This is some real selling. Also TICK just went below July's lows
BYE BYE Bulls
I guess the bears were just on holidays- They are all back after the Labor day.
1272 clipped here
1272 clipped here
Tick action
We just got the lowest tick reading since July 15 which is the date most are calling for the lows on the financials. Must respect this reading as it could be signaling a climatic change in sentiment of a precursor to more selling.
1276 is critical
1276 is critical
1276 S&P
For those who want to know 1276 is serious level here. The fact we were up nearly 250 point his morning and they sold us off to that level we should be mindful of the mentality of the traders. I do believe we will hit 1307 in a couple of day if we hold this 1276 area
POT
Totally dead- Wish we played it when i mentioned it @220.
Geez commodities are dead here.
Please no one in commodities. They should bear flag and go lower
Geez commodities are dead here.
Please no one in commodities. They should bear flag and go lower
Back to the same
Back to the same sell the rallies. We were up 250 on the DOW this morning and we gave it all back wow.
Let's get some volume
Let's get some volume this month and I am sure we will have an excellent month.
Oil, Gold and commodities all crushed here, Lets see if they lift the market on this.
I am still in a bearish mood but think they can push us to that 1325 level on the S&P, we will see soon enough as 1305 is strong resistance.
MARKETJEDI
Oil, Gold and commodities all crushed here, Lets see if they lift the market on this.
I am still in a bearish mood but think they can push us to that 1325 level on the S&P, we will see soon enough as 1305 is strong resistance.
MARKETJEDI
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