Off on my holidays till next monday. Hope everyone has a healthy and prosperous New Year.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
Gold
The technical picture for gold has brightened considerably over the past week, despite the price having continued to drop and the apparent failure of an uptrend. The reasons for this are to be found in the price action of gold itself and in what has been going on elsewhere at the same time.
On the 1-year chart we can see how the current downtrend continued to take the price lower early in the week before it bounced back late in the week as the market wound down for the Christmas holiday. Failure of the parabolic uptrend channel was followed by a breach of the parallel uptrend channel, as we had expected, however, applying our 3% rule we see that gold did not drop below our general stop for the sector at $1067 before it bounced above an important support level. With gold just above this support and now oversold on its MACD and various other shorter-term indicators, and still in the vicinity of its rising 50-day moving average, this is a good place for it to turn up. With respect to the trendline failure we should note that it is a favorite trick of Big Money to execute trendline failures in order to run people out of their positions before prices reverse sharply in the other direction.
On the 1-year chart we can see how the current downtrend continued to take the price lower early in the week before it bounced back late in the week as the market wound down for the Christmas holiday. Failure of the parabolic uptrend channel was followed by a breach of the parallel uptrend channel, as we had expected, however, applying our 3% rule we see that gold did not drop below our general stop for the sector at $1067 before it bounced above an important support level. With gold just above this support and now oversold on its MACD and various other shorter-term indicators, and still in the vicinity of its rising 50-day moving average, this is a good place for it to turn up. With respect to the trendline failure we should note that it is a favorite trick of Big Money to execute trendline failures in order to run people out of their positions before prices reverse sharply in the other direction.
Out of town-PALM
Will be out of town for the next couple of days. Just want to leave you with a short I believe will work for the new year. PALM
Friday, December 25, 2009
Happy holidays
Happy holidays to the world and I hope we all remember the important things in life, like our health, respect for others, family and TRUE friendship, not phonies that pretend and are just seeking out there own agenda. I am done with such people for ever, you should to! Garvey said a friend is not someone who speaks good of you but a friend is someone who shares your pain and I have learnt that the hard way.
Hope everyone enjoy their holidays no matter where and what they are doing.
MARKETJEDI
Hope everyone enjoy their holidays no matter where and what they are doing.
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Happy Holidays
That's it for me folks till next week, have a safe and happy holidays.
Structure measurement seems we can hit 1129 on the S&P we will see if that does happen.
MARKETJEDI
Structure measurement seems we can hit 1129 on the S&P we will see if that does happen.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
A little higher
I still think that 1124 number is possible just not today. We will see how the rest of the year pans out. In the mean time most have stopped trading and the only ones out there are the amateurs so don't put much technical reasoning behind this melt up :)
Also I hear Art Cashin this morning talking about he doesn't trust this rally but he claimed he has been saying that since July. The point here is the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent so best to step aside in these periods.
Also I hear Art Cashin this morning talking about he doesn't trust this rally but he claimed he has been saying that since July. The point here is the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent so best to step aside in these periods.
Growth Rate
From Yahoo Finance:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, as the recovery got off to a weaker start than previously thought. However, all signs suggest the economy will end the year on stronger footing.
The Commerce Department's new reading on gross domestic product for the July-to-September quarter was slower than the 2.8 percent growth rate estimated just a month ago. Economists were predicting that figure wouldn't be revised in the government's final estimate on third-quarter GDP.
The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn't spend as much, commercial construction was weaker, business investment in equipment and software was a bit softer and companies cut back more on inventories, according to Tuesday's report.
Despite the lower reading, the economy managed to finally return to growth during the quarter, after a record four straight quarters of decline. That signaled the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s had ended, and the economy had entered into a new fragile phase of recovery.
Many analysts believe the economy is on track for a better finish in the current quarter.
The economy is probably growing at nearly 4 percent in the October-to-December quarter, analysts say. If they're right, that would mark the strongest showing since 5.4 percent growth in the first quarter of 2006 -- well before the recession began. The government will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter economic activity on Jan. 29.
Yet even such growth wouldn't be enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate, now at 10 percent. High unemployment and tight credit for both consumers and businesses are expected to continue to weigh on the economic recovery. Many economists predict the economy's growth will slow to a pace of around 2 or 3 percent in the first three months of 2010.
Growth in the final quarter is expected to be driven by companies restocking depleted inventories. Stocks of goods were slashed at a record pace during the recession. So even the smallest pickup in customer demand will force factories to step up production and boost overall economic activity in the final quarter.
Stronger sales of exports to foreign customers, as well as spending by U.S. consumers and businesses, also will help underpin fourth-quarter growth.
It's been a wild ride for the economy this year. In the first three months, it shrank at a pace of 6.4 percent -- its worst downhill slide in 27 years.
The recession eased in the second quarter, with the economy dipping at a pace of just 0.7 percent. The economy returned to growth in the third quarter.
But much of the third quarter's growth was supported by government stimulus spending. The Cash for Clunkers rebates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers buoyed sales of cars and homes. The clunkers program ended in August, though the tax credit has been extended and expanded beyond first-time buyers.
The government makes three estimates of GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, for a given quarter. Each estimate is based on more complete data. The government's initial estimate for the third quarter was more energetic, showing the economy's growth at a 3.5 percent pace. Subsequent estimates, however, showed the recovery was actually slower.
Tuesday's report showed consumer spending grew at a 2.8 percent pace, slightly weaker than the 2.9 percent pace previously estimated and one of the factors behind the lower overall reading.
Retail sales, however, showed decent momentum in October and November, raising hopes that holiday sales would fare better than last year, which was the worst in nearly four decades.
Still, unlike previous economic recoveries, consumers, whose spending accounts for 70 percent of overall economic activity, aren't expected to solely power this one. Businesses and the government are having to pitch in more.
A trouble spot for the economy -- the commercial real-estate market -- was clearly visible in Tuesday's report.
Builders slashed spending on commercial building projects at an annualized pace of 18.4 percent in the third quarter. That was sharper than the 15.1 percent pace previously estimated and contributed to the GDP downgrade.
Business spending on equipment and software, meanwhile, grew at a 1.5 percent pace, less than the 2.3 percent growth rate estimated a month ago.
Furthermore, businesses cut inventories more deeply, by $139.2 billion in the third quarter. However, with inventories at rock-bottom levels, businesses are starting to replenish them, which should support the economy.
It's unclear how the recovery will fare once the government withdraws stimulus programs put in place to combat the financial crisis and the recession. If consumers pull back on spending, the economy could tip back into recession.
Economists at Capital Economics predict the recovery will slow, with the economy's growth fading to just 1.5 percent in 2011.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve pledged last week to keep interest rates at a record low to help the recovery gain traction.
Faced with the prospects of high unemployment well into the 2012 presidential election year, President Barack Obama wants the government to take further steps to put Americans back to work. The House last week passed some provisions that Obama has pushed to aid job growth. But it didn't include new tax breaks for small businesses that hire.
The administration credits its $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment, though Republicans argue it did not help much.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, as the recovery got off to a weaker start than previously thought. However, all signs suggest the economy will end the year on stronger footing.
The Commerce Department's new reading on gross domestic product for the July-to-September quarter was slower than the 2.8 percent growth rate estimated just a month ago. Economists were predicting that figure wouldn't be revised in the government's final estimate on third-quarter GDP.
The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn't spend as much, commercial construction was weaker, business investment in equipment and software was a bit softer and companies cut back more on inventories, according to Tuesday's report.
Despite the lower reading, the economy managed to finally return to growth during the quarter, after a record four straight quarters of decline. That signaled the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s had ended, and the economy had entered into a new fragile phase of recovery.
Many analysts believe the economy is on track for a better finish in the current quarter.
The economy is probably growing at nearly 4 percent in the October-to-December quarter, analysts say. If they're right, that would mark the strongest showing since 5.4 percent growth in the first quarter of 2006 -- well before the recession began. The government will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter economic activity on Jan. 29.
Yet even such growth wouldn't be enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate, now at 10 percent. High unemployment and tight credit for both consumers and businesses are expected to continue to weigh on the economic recovery. Many economists predict the economy's growth will slow to a pace of around 2 or 3 percent in the first three months of 2010.
Growth in the final quarter is expected to be driven by companies restocking depleted inventories. Stocks of goods were slashed at a record pace during the recession. So even the smallest pickup in customer demand will force factories to step up production and boost overall economic activity in the final quarter.
Stronger sales of exports to foreign customers, as well as spending by U.S. consumers and businesses, also will help underpin fourth-quarter growth.
It's been a wild ride for the economy this year. In the first three months, it shrank at a pace of 6.4 percent -- its worst downhill slide in 27 years.
The recession eased in the second quarter, with the economy dipping at a pace of just 0.7 percent. The economy returned to growth in the third quarter.
But much of the third quarter's growth was supported by government stimulus spending. The Cash for Clunkers rebates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers buoyed sales of cars and homes. The clunkers program ended in August, though the tax credit has been extended and expanded beyond first-time buyers.
The government makes three estimates of GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, for a given quarter. Each estimate is based on more complete data. The government's initial estimate for the third quarter was more energetic, showing the economy's growth at a 3.5 percent pace. Subsequent estimates, however, showed the recovery was actually slower.
Tuesday's report showed consumer spending grew at a 2.8 percent pace, slightly weaker than the 2.9 percent pace previously estimated and one of the factors behind the lower overall reading.
Retail sales, however, showed decent momentum in October and November, raising hopes that holiday sales would fare better than last year, which was the worst in nearly four decades.
Still, unlike previous economic recoveries, consumers, whose spending accounts for 70 percent of overall economic activity, aren't expected to solely power this one. Businesses and the government are having to pitch in more.
A trouble spot for the economy -- the commercial real-estate market -- was clearly visible in Tuesday's report.
Builders slashed spending on commercial building projects at an annualized pace of 18.4 percent in the third quarter. That was sharper than the 15.1 percent pace previously estimated and contributed to the GDP downgrade.
Business spending on equipment and software, meanwhile, grew at a 1.5 percent pace, less than the 2.3 percent growth rate estimated a month ago.
Furthermore, businesses cut inventories more deeply, by $139.2 billion in the third quarter. However, with inventories at rock-bottom levels, businesses are starting to replenish them, which should support the economy.
It's unclear how the recovery will fare once the government withdraws stimulus programs put in place to combat the financial crisis and the recession. If consumers pull back on spending, the economy could tip back into recession.
Economists at Capital Economics predict the recovery will slow, with the economy's growth fading to just 1.5 percent in 2011.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve pledged last week to keep interest rates at a record low to help the recovery gain traction.
Faced with the prospects of high unemployment well into the 2012 presidential election year, President Barack Obama wants the government to take further steps to put Americans back to work. The House last week passed some provisions that Obama has pushed to aid job growth. But it didn't include new tax breaks for small businesses that hire.
The administration credits its $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment, though Republicans argue it did not help much.
Range
Look at this range bound market-Geez- One thing for sure it will soon break and get a nice move
Monday, December 21, 2009
Gold
Posted a few weeks ago when we hit Gold 1200, that I would not be long here before a pullback. Since that we have gotten our pullback and Gold is now trading around 1096. I think the important number is 1076 BUT it is possible that we could retrace back to 1045 area before we continue higher.
These last day of the year movements are usually just window dressing and tax related trades. Remember last year what happened, we made our usual January effect movement then we had that awful drop beginning in Feb to the March lows. This time we are above those relative levels but I would be looking for the same pattern to mirror itself during the same time period.
These last day of the year movements are usually just window dressing and tax related trades. Remember last year what happened, we made our usual January effect movement then we had that awful drop beginning in Feb to the March lows. This time we are above those relative levels but I would be looking for the same pattern to mirror itself during the same time period.
Holiday week
Folks remember this week is done a matter of fact the year for most. It will be easy for the manipulators to push around stuff as this week is a 3 1/2 day week and added to the fact that most firms have said they are protecting their profits since summer and are virtually out of the market since September for the rest of the year.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Triple expiration today
Friday is the last Quad Witching of the day. OE days in general tend to be high volume, and this should be no exception. The real question now becomes will there be any volatility or will it just be a limp like day.
I guess I got that low yesterday dead on. Nothing like when technicals work to a T :)
Still the same setups for today since we have been not changing any structure.
I guess I got that low yesterday dead on. Nothing like when technicals work to a T :)
Still the same setups for today since we have been not changing any structure.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
45 minutes to go
Hmm very interesting action although the volume is low. It would be noted as a weak session if we definitely break lows of day into close from here.
Below 1093
Below that 1093/1092.50 area the next real decent level of support is 1079/80. Not that we reach that today but if we close below the 1093 the next area of substantial support is there.
One hour in I am pretty surprised by the action.
1092.50 might be a buy with a stop around 1090
One hour in I am pretty surprised by the action.
1092.50 might be a buy with a stop around 1090
Thursday
Looks like we will gap down today bu I doubt we sell off today. I would be looking at 1095 as a line in the sand if we get that low. I am actually looking for us to get a nice bounce but we will see how we digest all the news coming in this morning.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Fed out
With the FED out of the way I think the seasonality of the holidays kick in and we head higher. It is pretty much dead out there volume wise so it would take nothing for them to move us higher.
Remember too we have expiration this friday. Most are already trading January options and March futures.
Remember too we have expiration this friday. Most are already trading January options and March futures.
FED DAY
Fed day today so I except very low volume till the announcement. Does this leave us clear to edge higher into a Christmas rally? We will have to see, take note of that 1121/3 area as this is the 50% retracement area of the all time highs and the March lows. That area will act as a magnet here on the upside though ultimately we could head higher.
Remember we could go any way here and 1200 is not out of the picture if the signals turn up. If we can't break up on volume we will put in another narrow range divergence and this would make it 5 in the consolidation range.
Remember we could go any way here and 1200 is not out of the picture if the signals turn up. If we can't break up on volume we will put in another narrow range divergence and this would make it 5 in the consolidation range.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Fed Tomorrow
Should be another no action day till 2:15 when we get the decision out. Who knows what will happen but a likely outcome is a ramp up after the announcement to the marginal highs then and retrace of it all. I am kind of looking at this move because that has been the trend for the last few meetings but we will see.
Market is still in a comatose state here.
Market is still in a comatose state here.
BAC
Keep an eye on that important $15 level for BAC. Looks like it will definitely break soon. On that note all the banks are running to payback the TARP why? Really they are so full of greed for their upper management bonuses they aren't thinking about the long term.
Who am I anyways!!!!!!!, heard the BAC also now looking internally for a CEO, wow I would feel like crap knowing I was working at a company and I was the last one to get offered a job when all possible external candidates didn't want it, this is just funny.
I would say alot more about the banks like I use to but I don't want to get hate mails again. I bet when we do our wave 3 down I will get them saying it is me- :) funny too funny. I do this blog for fun and to keep myself sharp when I loosing mojo on my analysis.
Just be glad if you are healthy and can help yourself. I knew quite a few people who passed on this year, one just one month older than myself and many people who were in and out of the hospital, one as recent as last night, so be joyful if you are up and around and healthy.
MARKETJEDI
Who am I anyways!!!!!!!, heard the BAC also now looking internally for a CEO, wow I would feel like crap knowing I was working at a company and I was the last one to get offered a job when all possible external candidates didn't want it, this is just funny.
I would say alot more about the banks like I use to but I don't want to get hate mails again. I bet when we do our wave 3 down I will get them saying it is me- :) funny too funny. I do this blog for fun and to keep myself sharp when I loosing mojo on my analysis.
Just be glad if you are healthy and can help yourself. I knew quite a few people who passed on this year, one just one month older than myself and many people who were in and out of the hospital, one as recent as last night, so be joyful if you are up and around and healthy.
MARKETJEDI
Excitement
Yep another exciting day yesterday NOT! I guess we are just winding down for the rest of the year. I have never never seen this in my over 12 years of trading but there is always a first. Today tuesday should also be very boring with the FOMC meeting starting today and decision tomorrow most will just be out shopping :).
I guess after the announcement we will get a directional move and I am guess up but who knows, it is all a guess here till be get some momentum out of this chop.
I guess after the announcement we will get a directional move and I am guess up but who knows, it is all a guess here till be get some momentum out of this chop.
Monday, December 14, 2009
No updates today
Have some appointments to deal with today, so I will be away from the market action. But here is a small note.
The only thing that makes me interested in the equities market here is our time cycle calculations longer term which showing some clear cycle top, coupled with the obvious technical negative divergences. Balancing against all of that the trend from S&P 865 or even more clearly the March low of 665 is obviously up and the subsequently larger cycles have up peaking in 2010 of the rebound in the bear market. We must remember simple charting 01, consolidation near the highs ‘should’ lead to a move higher.
It should be very interested here as we could make a marginal new high, personally looking for an area 1122-1134 and then we collapse which has a very high probability of happening.
The only thing that makes me interested in the equities market here is our time cycle calculations longer term which showing some clear cycle top, coupled with the obvious technical negative divergences. Balancing against all of that the trend from S&P 865 or even more clearly the March low of 665 is obviously up and the subsequently larger cycles have up peaking in 2010 of the rebound in the bear market. We must remember simple charting 01, consolidation near the highs ‘should’ lead to a move higher.
It should be very interested here as we could make a marginal new high, personally looking for an area 1122-1134 and then we collapse which has a very high probability of happening.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Non-Eventful day again!
I have a feeling we will just do what we did last year this time get a low volume swing up and then die after the first few weeks of January. All I know nothing is happening here equity wise and the real movers seem to be the Gold, Silver and Oil.
Makes no sense putting up charts because they show nothing but consolidation and chop and I don't have to say it, its obvious.
Banks are looking interesting and why I say that is they were the big leaders off the March lows and they seem to have lost stream in the last two months so I conclude this is a very important development.
Oil been sweet if you caught it short I said it before a break of $76 points to lower prices and that was what happened. Also the seasonality factor of Crude Oil made it negative coming into the later weeks of the year. Check out natural gas that one is always good this time of year but I totally had my eyes elsewhere and didn't make an alert out of it.
Have a great weekend
Makes no sense putting up charts because they show nothing but consolidation and chop and I don't have to say it, its obvious.
Banks are looking interesting and why I say that is they were the big leaders off the March lows and they seem to have lost stream in the last two months so I conclude this is a very important development.
Oil been sweet if you caught it short I said it before a break of $76 points to lower prices and that was what happened. Also the seasonality factor of Crude Oil made it negative coming into the later weeks of the year. Check out natural gas that one is always good this time of year but I totally had my eyes elsewhere and didn't make an alert out of it.
Have a great weekend
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Keep eye on Banks
Keeping eyes on Banks with all this TARP payback. My benchmark is still BAC $15 level
Citibank
Citibank paying back their which is great but to do this they have to issue $200 Billion in equity. Seeing all these banks rushing to pay back the TARP let me think they are doing it at the expense of capital dilution. We will see what really happens. In the mean time 1123 on the upside is the number I have and 1087 on the downside.
Seasonality is in place here folks and don't forget that. Usually they try to push up into mid December then we drift down during the final days, obviously this could be distorted this year due to the anemic volume.
Seasonality is in place here folks and don't forget that. Usually they try to push up into mid December then we drift down during the final days, obviously this could be distorted this year due to the anemic volume.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Boring
Nothing boring day and indecision. Only significant happening was that my good old Bank of America paid back the TARP funds. Now they are free to rape us without a cause and get a CEO. Watch that stock as I have been saying $15 is the magical number on it. Has to hold that level or we will quickly wee $12. No doubt it will be in the single digits next year in my opinion but the market is doing much here to push the financials down yet.
Do I ??
Do I get to say BINGO today again with a 1081 hit????
We will see maybe we get there overnight and I wouldn't be surprised at that.
We will see maybe we get there overnight and I wouldn't be surprised at that.
Drip
Wonder if they get to 1081 today or overnight. Another thing, has anyone notice that the days are boring while the action is 90% happening overnight. Yes not alot of participation for U.S players.
downside
Downside number I am looking at for some support is 1080/1. I still believe we will mismatch till the first week of January with a slight bias to the downside into Christmas
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Wedging
We are so forming a wedge on this higher band. That is a sign of struggling of the last trend, so do we get a meaning full pullback here? Maybe remember also the 50% retracement is around 1024-26 area.
Again is bears need to get us below 1084 to really make there stand
Again is bears need to get us below 1084 to really make there stand
Monday, December 7, 2009
Monday
First Monday we have struggled to be in the green in a long time. I do have a cycle peak around here so that could have given credence to the lackluster day. Also remember we are going into the seasonal time of the year. Traders seem to have taken off the rest of the year since October when most managed to get back in the green from horrible start to the year. That's the main reason why volume has been extremely low since September, no one wants to gamble and most are just holding out to close the year positive. Might prove to be a worthwhile move.
Computer fixed
System is back up and running. I just need to call my software providers today to reactivate my program and I am good-
I will see if I can get them up completely before the first hour of the market open.
Will be back later
I will see if I can get them up completely before the first hour of the market open.
Will be back later
Friday, December 4, 2009
Hmmmm
Seem to be working now- I will test during the rest of day and tomorrow and post some thoughts and charts up for next week.
I hope it is fixed- rrrrrrrrrrrrg- Bill Gates you scum
I hope it is fixed- rrrrrrrrrrrrg- Bill Gates you scum
Sorry folks
No updates yesterday as I have a serious virus on my trading system. Bill Gates why can't you make a decent OS, just crazy.
I guess I will be working to resolve it today once again.
In the meantime today is job numbers we will see how we really react on this one, we are in one boring market here
I guess I will be working to resolve it today once again.
In the meantime today is job numbers we will see how we really react on this one, we are in one boring market here
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
DOJI
So today once again a boring day and marking a DOJI on the day. Folks the market is at a stand still except for that GOLD :) I am looking at my charts on Gold and it is very possible for it to move to 1280 area easily but wow can we get a rest or a pullback to jump on?
Silver is also on a march upward and that look like it will hit that $20 mark again very soon.
This evening Bank of America said they would repay $45 Billion of the TARP by raising $18-19 billion of fresh capital and cash on hand. Funny didn't they just lose billions in the last quarter I have to check but it seems a desperate move on Bank of America to try and dispell fears they are not on strong grounds and thus the problem of the difficulties of finding a new CEO. Hello BAC, do you want my resume? I will work for free, just want a bonus :)
We will see how that works out in the market but I fear after it is all said and done it will be negative for the stock price. $14-15 is a very important area for that stock and a break of that area would send it easily to $12. What I am going to say here might sound crazy as usual but I honestly believe all these banks want to pay back the funds because they aren't making money. Sound crazy? nope and I will explain. When the TARP is paid back they are no longer under the eye of the government and therefore once again can go after those high risk products that really makes money. Right now they have to play it safe and playing safe means profits are slim and in most case declining, that's why they are raising fees all over the place on consumers. Yep sound crazy but it is the nature of Wall street, GREED rules! not risk management. That's one of the serious flaw of being overly capitalistic, greed takes over and we throw caution to the wind..
Silver is also on a march upward and that look like it will hit that $20 mark again very soon.
This evening Bank of America said they would repay $45 Billion of the TARP by raising $18-19 billion of fresh capital and cash on hand. Funny didn't they just lose billions in the last quarter I have to check but it seems a desperate move on Bank of America to try and dispell fears they are not on strong grounds and thus the problem of the difficulties of finding a new CEO. Hello BAC, do you want my resume? I will work for free, just want a bonus :)
We will see how that works out in the market but I fear after it is all said and done it will be negative for the stock price. $14-15 is a very important area for that stock and a break of that area would send it easily to $12. What I am going to say here might sound crazy as usual but I honestly believe all these banks want to pay back the funds because they aren't making money. Sound crazy? nope and I will explain. When the TARP is paid back they are no longer under the eye of the government and therefore once again can go after those high risk products that really makes money. Right now they have to play it safe and playing safe means profits are slim and in most case declining, that's why they are raising fees all over the place on consumers. Yep sound crazy but it is the nature of Wall street, GREED rules! not risk management. That's one of the serious flaw of being overly capitalistic, greed takes over and we throw caution to the wind..
Gold Again
Nothing seem to be stopping this engine from revving. Watch the 1101 level on the S&P today, must hold that level for the bulls.
Side note I have been working on some new stuff and I have been fine tuning projections with time and price for more accuracy. Using previous projection we still have a projection to the 1145 area for the S&P.
Side note I have been working on some new stuff and I have been fine tuning projections with time and price for more accuracy. Using previous projection we still have a projection to the 1145 area for the S&P.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Range Bound
We have been in a range bound market for the last three weeks. The range has been 1086-1112. Believe it or not put up a chart and look at it almost impossible to do anything. A 25 point range for week is just ridiculous and I wonder if it could remain this boring for the rest of the year.
Gold
http://www.businessinsider.com/as-gold-hits-1200-china-prepares-to-increase-its-holdings-significantly-2009-12
S&P Silverblatt
Just read Silverblatt noting this decade will be the first decline in the market ever. They are also claiming a Dec 2010 target on the S&P between 980-1100 so basically falt from these levels. Very interesting indeed
Citibank cautious on Banks
(Reuters) - Citigroup said there are substantial risks facing U.S. bank stocks now, but in the near term these stocks can grind higher given a combination of the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance plus a modest recovery.
"Since there is above-average risk, we would remain very selective focusing on banks that have strong capital positions, while avoiding banks with the combination of relatively high commercial real estate exposure and questionable capital strength," Citigroup said in a note.
The brokerage upgraded BB&T Corp (NYSE:BBT - News) and Fifth Third Bancorp (NasdaqGS:FITB - News) by a notch to "buy" and kept Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) as its top pick among U.S. bank stocks.
Citigroup analysts, including Keith Horowitz, also kept their "sell" rating on the shares of Zions Bancorp (NasdaqGS:ZION - News).
The analysts are also upbeat about the shares of Suntrust Banks (NYSE:STI - News), while they see the least value on Regions Financial (NYSE:RF - News), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY - News) and Zions.
They estimated that banks in their coverage have crossed 55 percent of the credit cycle, though M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB - News), Comerica (NYSE:CMA - News) and BB&T have most losses ahead.
Banks with excess capital will be key players when the credit cycle is over, giving them a chance to take advantage of opportunities such as acquiring weaker players and organic loan growth, the analysts wrote.
"Since there is above-average risk, we would remain very selective focusing on banks that have strong capital positions, while avoiding banks with the combination of relatively high commercial real estate exposure and questionable capital strength," Citigroup said in a note.
The brokerage upgraded BB&T Corp (NYSE:BBT - News) and Fifth Third Bancorp (NasdaqGS:FITB - News) by a notch to "buy" and kept Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) as its top pick among U.S. bank stocks.
Citigroup analysts, including Keith Horowitz, also kept their "sell" rating on the shares of Zions Bancorp (NasdaqGS:ZION - News).
The analysts are also upbeat about the shares of Suntrust Banks (NYSE:STI - News), while they see the least value on Regions Financial (NYSE:RF - News), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY - News) and Zions.
They estimated that banks in their coverage have crossed 55 percent of the credit cycle, though M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB - News), Comerica (NYSE:CMA - News) and BB&T have most losses ahead.
Banks with excess capital will be key players when the credit cycle is over, giving them a chance to take advantage of opportunities such as acquiring weaker players and organic loan growth, the analysts wrote.
Gold
Gold January contract traded 1199.6- Hmmm I would call that $1200. Important to watch Oil here to and see what it does out of the structure. Structure has been consolidating but would more seem to be signaling higher.
Charts will be back up tomorrow
Charts will be back up tomorrow
Gold
Gold went $1 within the $1200 target. I read people saying Gold should be shorted, I really don't think so I would rather trade it long with stops below the last swing lows because this seem like Oil last year.
Areas to watch
Some areas to watch for the rest of week. 1097 on the upside the bulls need to clear this to get a foot down on the bears. The bears need us to break 1081 and spike down to that 1065 to change the sentiment. Main problem we could just trade in this range for awhile for complete boredom
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