Thursday, May 1, 2008

Warning: C

The last time I posted that I had a bad feeling about Citibank the stock got hurt the following day. I am not as sure this time but I am very wary of Citibank here. Citibank has gotten over $40 Billion of cash since December 2007 and I think they are in serious trouble.
MER is also one to watch here too. Alot of people like Cramer is talking about financial have bottom but funny enough two weeks ago when these stocks were lower he was saying he would not touch any financials. OK which one is it Cramer???????????? Just like when he said gold going to $1250 and I said gold will goto $850 before that happens, oh well Cramer you lost again.

DOW 13000

DOW 13000. Yes we finished above it. Well took us awhile to get there but I think we are almost at a top here and ready for a dip down again. I am looking for that 13000-13200 area for the past weeks as upside resistance and expecially that 1425 on the S&P.
We are one good day away from these resistance numbers and more than likely the next sell off will lead to a rotation back into the agros, oil and commodities stocks. I am now averaged about $96 on my SKF holdings here. I am also long IPI and will be looking to get into AGU and MON on the bounce. Been saying it since the middle of March that we should bounce during earnings seasons and that's one of the most powerful trends in trading. Now that earnings season is close to its end, it will be hard to find a catalyst to push up higher. This is a nice run up and definitely those who were short heavily have taken profits and ready to reset. Make no doubt about it we are in a bear market and this is just a bear market rally and nothing else.
Next week we should reverse the uptrend and I will be looking for more shorts. Look at the moves in AAPL, GOOG etc they can go higher but not much before the selling begins.
Lets see how it plays out tomorrow especially since we have the all important job numbers on tap..

DOW 13000

DOW 13000 here. Lets see if it hit the target set out last week 13200.

GOLD

looking for some support at the 200 day moving average @ $842 for a bounce. Below that target will be $815

S&P

Resistance is 1424 if you guys remember from a few week ago.

SKF explanation

Why am I sticking my head out here with the ultrashort SKF ? Because I think it will work. Many times you have to be patient and I am willing to be patient here the financial trackers seem to be breaking out but my caution sign is that the stocks are moving up on very little volume. Movement in price must be backed up with volume and to that extent I see no volume.
So that explained I might be alittle early on the trade but it is ok. SKF to new highs this year is my call.

SKF

I will add another set of SKF @$92 if it goes there.

adding to SKF

Market in a definite bullish tone here but I do feel the financials are close to a top here I might be wrong but I will put my money on the line. I am adding to my SKF and I my average cost is now $97.40.
We will see soon enough.

Oil, Gold and Euro all down

The bullishness of the US dollars is still fueling the selling in the commodities. Oil is currently @$110 but I think $105 is the number to watch if we get there.
Gold also now $850 should watch this level to see if it bounces.