Bingo Again on that call of 1174. Low of the day and it provided a low risk by for over 10 S&P POINTS!!!!
Now that we have tested the two areas the bulls must now prove their worth and take it higher.
Monday, November 29, 2010
1174
Ok note where is today's low so far. The 1174 mentioned last week on the blog. It is not nothing special that I noted the 1179 area where we made a massive bounce last week and next the 1174 area. Now this area is highly significant for the bulls and must hold it on a closing basis.
I will be traveling for the rest of the week so the blog will be dark. Any areas I think are important I will update.
I will be traveling for the rest of the week so the blog will be dark. Any areas I think are important I will update.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Note
Note the area where we have bounced off in the first hour of trading: 1179.75. What did I say about 1180 in the last post. Bulls have this as their marker and a close below will weaken their cause especially if we make it to the the 1174 area.
We will see soon enough
We will see soon enough
Action
1182.50 was the overnight lows if we break that during the day time trade look for a quick flush to that 1174 area mentioned yesterday. I think that's the magnet on the downside. 1180 area is also closing number for the bulls to hold onto their bias-
We will see soon enough.
We will see soon enough.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Action
Not much action just up one day down another, tight range! Now I am looking for some downside to the 1174 area where I expect some buying to come in, that's if the bulls have any intention to make a move higher. I think this is the scenario that will play out.
We will see soon enough
We will see soon enough
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Interesting-Housing note
Cleveland's population has been shrinking for 60 years as the city lost manufacturing jobs. Now, after more than 33,000 foreclosures since 2005, it's demolishing hundreds of deserted, derelict homes.
An agency started last year to manage abandoned houses in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, plans to acquire up to 1,000 properties next year, and tear down as many as 900 of them. The city of Cleveland may raze double that amount, according to Gus Frangos, president of Cuyahoga County Land Reutilization Corp.
"You really have to bury the dead right now," Frangos said in a telephone interview. "You have to remove blight. It's unfortunately on a grand scale."
Cities and counties across the Rust Belt are ending up with abandoned properties under their control as owners stop paying taxes. In Cuyahoga County, a record 2,400 tax foreclosures may occur this year, said Chris Warren, Cleveland's chief of regional development. The governments are choosing to tear down some buildings rather than sell them as residents move to the suburbs and steel, automotive and manufacturing jobs disappear.
Detroit Demolitions
In Detroit, like Cleveland, the population has dropped by more than half since 1950. The city is in the process of demolishing more than 3,000 houses, according to Dan Lijana, a spokesman for Mayor Dave Bing. The mayor, elected last year, has pledged to tear down 10,000 abandoned and dangerous homes in his first term, Lijana said in an e-mail.
Detroit has almost 51,000 properties for sale and may add more through this year's tax foreclosure auction in Wayne County, where the city is located.
"These cities really have to take on the properties," said Alan Mallach, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "If they're going to be responsible stewards, they really don't have a choice."
Detroit, which has about 911,000 residents, plans to spend $14 million of $47 million from the first grant it was awarded in the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program to get rid of vacant properties that breed blight. Detroit razed 12,600 homes in the decade before Bing took office, Lijana said.
Phoenix
Phoenix, which has the eighth-highest U.S. foreclosure rate, also received money from the federal government and plans to spend 3 percent of the first round on "clearance," which includes cleaning up vacant lots and demolishing properties, according to government records.
For Sun Belt cities such as Phoenix, where there likely will be greater growth than in Cleveland and Detroit, the more practical strategy may be to hold on to homes until the real estate market recovers, said Terry Schwarz, director of Kent State University's Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative in Cleveland.
I personally didn't think this was going to happen until 2012 to 2014, but it's finally here. Cities, whether it be shrinking cities or over developed cities, have thousands of homes on the market, and thousands of dilapidated vacant homes. With no demand, these vacant homes have no value. In fact, they have a negative value equal to the cost to demolish these structures.
These demolished homes represent a permanent loss in real estate taxes for these cities, which limits any kind of tax revenue growth without raising taxes and fees on citizens.
Expect this trend to continue. It may broaden to Florida, the Valley of CA, Georgia, and other pockets of over developed cities or shrinking manufacturing towns.
An agency started last year to manage abandoned houses in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, plans to acquire up to 1,000 properties next year, and tear down as many as 900 of them. The city of Cleveland may raze double that amount, according to Gus Frangos, president of Cuyahoga County Land Reutilization Corp.
"You really have to bury the dead right now," Frangos said in a telephone interview. "You have to remove blight. It's unfortunately on a grand scale."
Cities and counties across the Rust Belt are ending up with abandoned properties under their control as owners stop paying taxes. In Cuyahoga County, a record 2,400 tax foreclosures may occur this year, said Chris Warren, Cleveland's chief of regional development. The governments are choosing to tear down some buildings rather than sell them as residents move to the suburbs and steel, automotive and manufacturing jobs disappear.
Detroit Demolitions
In Detroit, like Cleveland, the population has dropped by more than half since 1950. The city is in the process of demolishing more than 3,000 houses, according to Dan Lijana, a spokesman for Mayor Dave Bing. The mayor, elected last year, has pledged to tear down 10,000 abandoned and dangerous homes in his first term, Lijana said in an e-mail.
Detroit has almost 51,000 properties for sale and may add more through this year's tax foreclosure auction in Wayne County, where the city is located.
"These cities really have to take on the properties," said Alan Mallach, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "If they're going to be responsible stewards, they really don't have a choice."
Detroit, which has about 911,000 residents, plans to spend $14 million of $47 million from the first grant it was awarded in the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program to get rid of vacant properties that breed blight. Detroit razed 12,600 homes in the decade before Bing took office, Lijana said.
Phoenix
Phoenix, which has the eighth-highest U.S. foreclosure rate, also received money from the federal government and plans to spend 3 percent of the first round on "clearance," which includes cleaning up vacant lots and demolishing properties, according to government records.
For Sun Belt cities such as Phoenix, where there likely will be greater growth than in Cleveland and Detroit, the more practical strategy may be to hold on to homes until the real estate market recovers, said Terry Schwarz, director of Kent State University's Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative in Cleveland.
I personally didn't think this was going to happen until 2012 to 2014, but it's finally here. Cities, whether it be shrinking cities or over developed cities, have thousands of homes on the market, and thousands of dilapidated vacant homes. With no demand, these vacant homes have no value. In fact, they have a negative value equal to the cost to demolish these structures.
These demolished homes represent a permanent loss in real estate taxes for these cities, which limits any kind of tax revenue growth without raising taxes and fees on citizens.
Expect this trend to continue. It may broaden to Florida, the Valley of CA, Georgia, and other pockets of over developed cities or shrinking manufacturing towns.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Gold
Nothing matches monetary theory and currency issues as a source of delirium among economists. As the G20 gets underway today in South Korea, name-calling has taken the place of diplomacy. The German Finance Minister called the U.S. Federal Reserve's US$600-billion money-printing operation "clueless," while Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he has "absolute confidence" in the program.
Somebody mentioned gold, and the swords are drawn again. Not a chance, said Mr. Carney. A good idea, said Robert Skidelsky, a leading Keynesian who says it's a golden opportunity to reform the world monetary system. Meanwhile, the man who started the gold rush, the World Bank's Robert Zoellick, says he didn't propose a full return to a gold standard. His objective, he said, was to point out that the gold price is sending a message that the policy fundamentals within the G20 are rotten. And that's a message -- with gold at US$1,400 an ounce--that can't be ignored.
All of which is a sure sign that world leaders, under the auspices of the G20, are assembling for another round of confidence-building meetings, at the end of which the return of confidence will seem even more remote than it is today. Surprise agreements on trade and bank regulation, or even climate-change policy, are possible, but expectations are not high.
Certainly there will be no clear outcome on currency reform and global trade imbalances, the main lightning rod for conflict at the G20. However, the sudden appearance of gold as an issue, unwelcome by central bankers, has in some ways helped to galvanize and renew an important ideological battle. Unfortunately, it is not a battle that is likely to clear the air. There will certainly be no reference to gold in any final communique. But as the price of gold soars, it draws attention to the failures and weaknesses of the world's paper-money system and its inherent inflationary risks.
Outside of the global investment community, which has pushed gold to record nominal values, official policy circles would prefer to talk about rebalancing world trade and finding ways to manipulate currencies or new techniques for printing money by the trillions of units. Then along came Mr. Zoellick, former U.S. trade rep and now head of the World Bank, who dropped the gold bomb in an op-ed in the Financial Times.
In a general overview of the state of the world economy and the role of the G20 in failing to be a model of international cooperation, Mr. Zoellick suggested that the world needs more than just currency reform and trade rebalancing. Currency reform is fine, he said, but it's a long-term project that must be accompanied by specific policies aimed at trade liberalization, privatization and fiscal reform.
On currencies, he suggested a new "co-operative monetary system" that would replace the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency in a new regime that involved the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and the yuan, after China moves toward internationalization and an open capital account. Then he said: "The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation."
In an interview yesterday on CNBC, Mr. Zoellick clarified his position. The objective, he said, is to instill private-sector confidence in the global currency and trade system.
The point on gold, and this is the golden elephant in the room, whether people recognize it or not, it is being used as an alternative monetary asset. So I'm not saying return to the gold standard as a control of money stock. But what I'm saying is the price of gold has been telling people is that there is a lack of confidence in some of the fundamental growth policies. So gold in that sense is a reference point, it's an indicator. Now people might wish it wasn't so. But I'm describing the facts as they see it and saying to policymakers: "You have to recognize what this says about the fundamentals of the policy you are pursuing." [You can't achieve confidence with] exchange rates and rebalancing alone.... You want to get the private sector back engaged. The time of government fiscal expansion and programs has run its course.
Current-account rebalancing and currency reform won't work alone. They might even be secondary. "These currency rebalancings and adjustments will be a lot easier if everybody's growing. That goes back to growth fundamentals. And it will certainly be a lot easier if people are opening markets as opposed to threatening to close them."
All very sensible, although the ideas behind monetary policy and global currency systems are a snake pit of conflict and ideology. The mere mention of gold as part of any system drives most Keynsian economists to distraction, reflecting John Maynard Keynes' claim that gold is a "barbarous relic" and his diligent efforts to keep it out of the world monetary system. Keynes, however, had a contradictory opinion on everything, a point made obvious by Mr. Skidelsky, a Keynes biographer, who wrote yesterday in the Financial Times that Keynes would likely have approved of Mr. Zoellick's use of gold.
As Mr. Skidelsky interprets the idea, the result of Mr. Zoellick's proposal would be a new global currency system built around a "super sovereign reserve currency" with some kind of reference to gold as an anchor. This would fit with Keynes' idea that "gold would be useful as a constitutional monarch, but disastrous as a despot."
All in all, the sudden attention paid to a new gold standard is likely to fade. The prospect for some new gold standard is zero. As a result, the future of the world monetary system -- even under some new super sovereign reserve -- seems destined to ease quantitatively toward a new structure where inflationary paper continues to trump gold.
Somebody mentioned gold, and the swords are drawn again. Not a chance, said Mr. Carney. A good idea, said Robert Skidelsky, a leading Keynesian who says it's a golden opportunity to reform the world monetary system. Meanwhile, the man who started the gold rush, the World Bank's Robert Zoellick, says he didn't propose a full return to a gold standard. His objective, he said, was to point out that the gold price is sending a message that the policy fundamentals within the G20 are rotten. And that's a message -- with gold at US$1,400 an ounce--that can't be ignored.
All of which is a sure sign that world leaders, under the auspices of the G20, are assembling for another round of confidence-building meetings, at the end of which the return of confidence will seem even more remote than it is today. Surprise agreements on trade and bank regulation, or even climate-change policy, are possible, but expectations are not high.
Certainly there will be no clear outcome on currency reform and global trade imbalances, the main lightning rod for conflict at the G20. However, the sudden appearance of gold as an issue, unwelcome by central bankers, has in some ways helped to galvanize and renew an important ideological battle. Unfortunately, it is not a battle that is likely to clear the air. There will certainly be no reference to gold in any final communique. But as the price of gold soars, it draws attention to the failures and weaknesses of the world's paper-money system and its inherent inflationary risks.
Outside of the global investment community, which has pushed gold to record nominal values, official policy circles would prefer to talk about rebalancing world trade and finding ways to manipulate currencies or new techniques for printing money by the trillions of units. Then along came Mr. Zoellick, former U.S. trade rep and now head of the World Bank, who dropped the gold bomb in an op-ed in the Financial Times.
In a general overview of the state of the world economy and the role of the G20 in failing to be a model of international cooperation, Mr. Zoellick suggested that the world needs more than just currency reform and trade rebalancing. Currency reform is fine, he said, but it's a long-term project that must be accompanied by specific policies aimed at trade liberalization, privatization and fiscal reform.
On currencies, he suggested a new "co-operative monetary system" that would replace the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency in a new regime that involved the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and the yuan, after China moves toward internationalization and an open capital account. Then he said: "The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation."
In an interview yesterday on CNBC, Mr. Zoellick clarified his position. The objective, he said, is to instill private-sector confidence in the global currency and trade system.
The point on gold, and this is the golden elephant in the room, whether people recognize it or not, it is being used as an alternative monetary asset. So I'm not saying return to the gold standard as a control of money stock. But what I'm saying is the price of gold has been telling people is that there is a lack of confidence in some of the fundamental growth policies. So gold in that sense is a reference point, it's an indicator. Now people might wish it wasn't so. But I'm describing the facts as they see it and saying to policymakers: "You have to recognize what this says about the fundamentals of the policy you are pursuing." [You can't achieve confidence with] exchange rates and rebalancing alone.... You want to get the private sector back engaged. The time of government fiscal expansion and programs has run its course.
Current-account rebalancing and currency reform won't work alone. They might even be secondary. "These currency rebalancings and adjustments will be a lot easier if everybody's growing. That goes back to growth fundamentals. And it will certainly be a lot easier if people are opening markets as opposed to threatening to close them."
All very sensible, although the ideas behind monetary policy and global currency systems are a snake pit of conflict and ideology. The mere mention of gold as part of any system drives most Keynsian economists to distraction, reflecting John Maynard Keynes' claim that gold is a "barbarous relic" and his diligent efforts to keep it out of the world monetary system. Keynes, however, had a contradictory opinion on everything, a point made obvious by Mr. Skidelsky, a Keynes biographer, who wrote yesterday in the Financial Times that Keynes would likely have approved of Mr. Zoellick's use of gold.
As Mr. Skidelsky interprets the idea, the result of Mr. Zoellick's proposal would be a new global currency system built around a "super sovereign reserve currency" with some kind of reference to gold as an anchor. This would fit with Keynes' idea that "gold would be useful as a constitutional monarch, but disastrous as a despot."
All in all, the sudden attention paid to a new gold standard is likely to fade. The prospect for some new gold standard is zero. As a result, the future of the world monetary system -- even under some new super sovereign reserve -- seems destined to ease quantitatively toward a new structure where inflationary paper continues to trump gold.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Buying here????
If you are buying equities here you are plain crazy- I am looking at massive divergences on larger cycles and as we know larger cycles never lie. Shorter cycles can miss but longer ones never-
Be warned
Be warned
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
What next?
So we are at the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the last major swing to the downside that started over 3 years ago.
Here is what I see. We are overbought, we are at key resistance, and the bulls are overly bullish. That being said, there is no reason to try and fight the tape for now. A nice hard gap up that fades just as hard could signal the start of a decline, but whether that decline is just a pullback (probable) or the start of the next super leg down (not nearly as probable) will have to be measured as it unfolds.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
BINGO
So bingo on that call that we would see a full retracement to the highs. From here I am going to sit back and see what happens. Definitely commodities as Gold and Oil are en fuego and looks like it is picking up more average investors.
I warned early this year that this year would not be a low so I was not in the camp to test the lows this year but next year, 2011.
I warned early this year that this year would not be a low so I was not in the camp to test the lows this year but next year, 2011.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Still Nothing
Well the market is still doing NADA.
We are above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement on the daily chart which suggests a full retracement to the highs is due, but we are just not getting in gear at all.
Day trading has turned frustrating for the time being with no late follow through as the market decides which way it wants to go next.
Wish I could give more insight but the market is doing nothing to step out and make any decisive move.
Monday, November 1, 2010
More downside to housing - 8%
The robo-signing controversy is just another issue that the already sluggish housing market didn't need -- but most analysts do not think it will have far-reaching impact.
Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.
Then there's the potentially disastrous number of foreclosures that may occur over the coming years.
"The market faces much bigger problems than the robo-signing issue," said Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.
Prime among them are declines in home prices. And while cheaper homes are good for buyers, they also speak to a housing market that won't stabilize.
Fiserv, a market analytics company, has scaled back its home price projections considerably. In February, it forecast national price gains of about 4% through the end of 2011. The company's latest prediction is for a 7.1% drop in prices between June 30, 2010 and June 30, 2011.
In fact, after five months of gains, prices in the 20 largest metro areas fell 0.2% in August, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report.
The good news is, "There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, "more home price declines are coming."
He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%.
Even after that, in 2012, he sees very little price growth.
Home prices continue to fall because sales aren't taking off. Without buyers, the market can't bottom out.
New home sales continue to languish around historic lows, barely exceeding an annual rate of 307,000. Existing home sales did rise to a 4.53 million annualized rate in September, up 10% compared with a month earlier, but are still well below the boom years.
Of course, nobody is buying homes when they can't find jobs. And still more people can't hang on to their homes because they're out of work.
Nearly a million homes are expected to be repossessed this year, and analysts seem to be competing to issue the most dire forecast for future foreclosure numbers.
Morgan Stanley reported that about 3.1 million borrowers are seriously delinquent with many expected to lose their homes.
Zandi said more than 4 million are in trouble with half of those expected to go to foreclosure.
And Laurie Goodman, of Amherst Securities, estimates the number of homes in danger of foreclosure at a whopping 11 million.
Real estate analyst Kyle Lundstedt of LPS Applied Analytics said serious delinquencies will continue to spike and will not return even to the current rates -- which are already at peak levels -- until late 2012 or early 2013.
"The housing market is very fragile," said Goodman.
However, Zandi sees a few factors that are positive.
These include: Low interest rates; FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all lending to qualified buyers; and an improving job picture.
Zandi is especially confident that the employment picture is about to brighten. Corporate profits have spiked and, historically, hiring follow profits -- with a lag of eight to 10 months. That means companies should start hiring workers very soon, Zandi said.
And once Americans start returning to work, they'll find home prices are very reasonable. Housing is the most affordable it's been since the pre-boom years. During the boom, Zandi said, prices were overvalued by about 50%; today it's close to zero.
That has attracted many investors, including foreign buyers. They've been scooping up single-family-homes and condos in hard-hit markets like Florida, the Southwest and the Midwest and renting them out.
"The reason they're in these markets is because they see value," said Zandi.
But, he added, "If they see the robo-signing issue continue, they could begin to exit the market. If they do, there could be more price declines. That's one reason why a foreclosure moratorium could be destructive."
Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.
Then there's the potentially disastrous number of foreclosures that may occur over the coming years.
"The market faces much bigger problems than the robo-signing issue," said Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.
Prime among them are declines in home prices. And while cheaper homes are good for buyers, they also speak to a housing market that won't stabilize.
Fiserv, a market analytics company, has scaled back its home price projections considerably. In February, it forecast national price gains of about 4% through the end of 2011. The company's latest prediction is for a 7.1% drop in prices between June 30, 2010 and June 30, 2011.
In fact, after five months of gains, prices in the 20 largest metro areas fell 0.2% in August, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report.
The good news is, "There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, "more home price declines are coming."
He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%.
Even after that, in 2012, he sees very little price growth.
Home prices continue to fall because sales aren't taking off. Without buyers, the market can't bottom out.
New home sales continue to languish around historic lows, barely exceeding an annual rate of 307,000. Existing home sales did rise to a 4.53 million annualized rate in September, up 10% compared with a month earlier, but are still well below the boom years.
Of course, nobody is buying homes when they can't find jobs. And still more people can't hang on to their homes because they're out of work.
Nearly a million homes are expected to be repossessed this year, and analysts seem to be competing to issue the most dire forecast for future foreclosure numbers.
Morgan Stanley reported that about 3.1 million borrowers are seriously delinquent with many expected to lose their homes.
Zandi said more than 4 million are in trouble with half of those expected to go to foreclosure.
And Laurie Goodman, of Amherst Securities, estimates the number of homes in danger of foreclosure at a whopping 11 million.
Real estate analyst Kyle Lundstedt of LPS Applied Analytics said serious delinquencies will continue to spike and will not return even to the current rates -- which are already at peak levels -- until late 2012 or early 2013.
"The housing market is very fragile," said Goodman.
However, Zandi sees a few factors that are positive.
These include: Low interest rates; FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all lending to qualified buyers; and an improving job picture.
Zandi is especially confident that the employment picture is about to brighten. Corporate profits have spiked and, historically, hiring follow profits -- with a lag of eight to 10 months. That means companies should start hiring workers very soon, Zandi said.
And once Americans start returning to work, they'll find home prices are very reasonable. Housing is the most affordable it's been since the pre-boom years. During the boom, Zandi said, prices were overvalued by about 50%; today it's close to zero.
That has attracted many investors, including foreign buyers. They've been scooping up single-family-homes and condos in hard-hit markets like Florida, the Southwest and the Midwest and renting them out.
"The reason they're in these markets is because they see value," said Zandi.
But, he added, "If they see the robo-signing issue continue, they could begin to exit the market. If they do, there could be more price declines. That's one reason why a foreclosure moratorium could be destructive."
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