Saturday, August 15, 2009

Soybeans Update



The bean market sold off hard on Thursday and Friday. I'm still not convinced that my original count is wrong. Check out the new near month, which is November.

The price action off the 1113.25 H looks very impulsive to me. This implies that minor 5 finished, therefore, arguing that the top is in.

Notice that the mid-line on the channel could not hold as support. This further supports that minor 5 finished (or that this was nothing more than a primary [2]nd and the continuous contract screwed us!).

Let's see what price action brings early next week before we make that decision. The problem I have is that the intra-day squiggles are very unclear on the leg that would complete 5.

If this is still minor 4, then price needs to find support soon. The 50% retracement of 3 is around 1005, while the 61.8% is at 981.50. I really don't want price to break the 50%, however, the line in the sand is 940.50, which is the high of 1.

CORN Update



The corn market continued its downtrend this week after taking a couple days to trace out an intermediate (2) wave.

If correct in my assessment, then the corn market should see some acceleration to the downside soon as it enters its (3)rd.

Price needs to take out 317.25, which should lock in (2)'s high for now. The next level of importance would be the 304 L, which is the bottom of primary [3].

[5] = [1] - [3] at 211.25. [5] = .618 of [1] - [3] at about 270, which is the minimum we should expect.