Wednesday, December 10, 2008

TRADE CALL UPDATE: GS Puts

Ok folks. I have gotten some email on the GS puts. Yes folks they are down a bit but if we get them to break even take it if you can't take the heat. Many of you are caught up the the great plays and 100% moves of many but not all plays will do that. I try my best but reality is there is no way to have a 100% win rate although we try to come pretty close. I still think the play will work but I am not incharge of you accounts so you manage your plays yourself. They are just ideas and you play at your own peril.

Now show me some love GS and die! if it only was so easy :)

Stock to keep your eye on APPLE - Good shot that thing gets killed in the next 6 months.


MARKETJEDI

Auto Bailout

Well what can we say! another bailout. Seem like we have a bailout every month but dont worry taxpayers we will get our bailout soon! LOL. Yep right we are at the bottom of the list and their will be no monies left after all the big guys get there handouts first.
If you thought the AIG bailout was a money pit you aint seen nothing yet. No shot in heaven or hell the automakers wont need more money, it is inevitable. Just like the banks the US automaker business model is flawed and can't be corrected in 12 months, So we will see where their are next year this time.
The market is trading constructively here and there is a good shot that we grind higher. I still think tops one this market is 10300 on the DOW but we will see, I have seen crazier stuff happen. I think we have got to continually watch the volume here as it is not impressive and if we gap down tomorrow it is a green light buy, if we gap up, bracket the first hour and play as such.

MARKETJEDI

Market Cycle

Based on my cycle calculations we might see s push down tomorrow. Obviously news etc can change the momentum but as of now 4:20 PM tuesday, my plan will be to short on a gap up tomorrow. It pays to be neutral here as I have been over the near term for the last couple of weeks, you have got to play both long and short on the market.

Will send an email today on some thoughts

Todays action.

Textbook action here today. Very normal trading testing yesterday's 881 area and closing close at the fib extension value 901.5
We getting some bounce on the oversold material and Oil companies and rotation out of the staples. Mid day today I watched as the bulls tried there best to keep the selling from getting out of control and booyahhh :) we were in buy the pushes down mode.
Nasdaq showed some relative strength but pullback off that high it made late morning. Where do we go from here? Well seem like we can grind higher and 965 area might become the next target if we mount that 922 area.

Meredith Whitney cont'd

Meredith is making a case for house pricing falling another 20-35%, wow. She is saying the housing problem is too big to handle and government and regulators should try and save consumer credit (credit cards) instead of the housing market. I totally agree with this but who am I. I hope some people are listening to her because she was the only analyst on the street who was bearish on bank before everything hit the ceiling.

This bounce is just a bounce, no good news is out there folks. Rio Tinto is cutting 14000 jobs this morning and Toyota is cutting production further. Also news this morning of China's export falling for the first time in 7 years.

Meredith Whitney

Current on CNBC saying the banks are dead money and wont recover for another two years. She is very bearish and she is the #1 financial analyst on the street. Also Ace Greenberg confessed that the financial model is broken and will never be what they were in the past.

Hmmmm I wonder if they are reading the blog :)

MARKETJEDI