Tuesday

We’ll we did bounce a little yesterday although it took another flush out of the market open to do it. Following the mid-morning reversal off the lows, we rallied nicely into the close finishing near the highs of the session. The early down-leg kept us from advancing too far on the daily charts; absorption I call it as volatility and gaps absorb most of the buying pressure and it’s a market tone we have been witnessed the past couple of weeks, especially in the last few sessions. In fact we seem to be digesting the recent push-down forming bear flag/pennant consolidations and still look to me like we will make a move lower.

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of continued upside for another day first, but I think the more likely scenario is a pull-back for Tuesday or another narrow range session. If we do break to the downside on the daily market charts, I would be prepared for more short-setups. A rally would have to clear the last swing highs from 2/1 before I look for a prolonged upside move.

Gold is currently morphing a bearish pattern at the highs and although we are in a bullish commodity run I am still looking for a pulback in GOLD to the $860 area of support. Also lets see if Oil decides to take another go at $100.

Market

Market now in the green- Bidu is on fire now +$11. Pullbacks here are buyable!!!!!!!!!

Awesome

Awesome call on the stocks mentioned to look at today!!! all are up except one.

BIDU+$8
GS+2.50
RIMM +4.70
FDX +.50
DIA+.72
LEH-.30

sweet

TRADE CALL -Update

GWW short working nicely. presently +1.20 looking for +$3
INFY short also working nicely. currently + $1.30 from friday, looking for +$3

pretty dull day and although negative I dont see alot of volume on the downside. I am still upward biased for this week.

Oil is on a rampage almost hit $95 today after being down to 86 on thursday. As reiteration last night I am basically bullish for this week because of the move i saw in oil on Friday. $92 is still the line in the sand for Oil aslong as we are above that we can remain bullish

Contrarian View-Monday's game plan

Well everyone knows I am a bear long term but from the action I have seen last week in the market following the previous two weeks of action I am going out on a limb and saw we will bounce this week. I would not be surprised if we goto the 12700 before we start out decent again and hopefully we might even touch that wonderful 13000 again which would set up a beautiful short opportunity.
Last week friday action on Oil have made be believe the bounce in the market will happen sooner than later and my bet is it will happen within this week into next. We are deeply oversold and much of the selling from the earnings might be abating here for us to turn in a substantial bounce. Now I am no bull as stated I am a bear but you have got to play the bear market rallies when they come.
if we do bounce i will be watching 1426 on the S&P as the highest level of resistance. Yes we are far from there but I think that's the ultimate level to watch as a extreme target if the market starts to turn. Everyone is in the bear camp right now and I think they will get caught in the short covering in the next few days.
Couple of stocks to watch if we start to bounce are BIDU, GS, LEH, RIMM, DIA, FDX. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get some follow thru from the retailers and homebuilders.

Good Luck with this week trading.

TRADE CALL

shorting GWW here -
Monster move by Oil today - need to take note of this. For monday I will be noting levels to watch on the upside and downside.

Shorted INFY this morning $42.60

For Friday Feb 8 2008

Thursday the market did as per my assessment on wednesday. Market opened around the 1318 level as found support in the S&P, from there we mounted higher. Fear still persist in the market about a recession and defensive stocks like Phillip Morris are showing much strength in this market sentiment.
I have been noticing and reading of some weakness in the IT area of the economy especially those to do with outsourcing. One such first to watch for weakness is INFY. Presently in a downtrend should be highly playable as a short if the economy continues to weaken. I am still looking for a pullback in Gold to the $860 area but seems the fast money which was in OIL have set sights on GOLD.
The market has pulled back in volume this week and therefore puts me in the corner for more analysis on the next move. My ideal situation would be for us to get some buying and we move up and then go and test the lows but as said my times that's just my wishful thinking. Watch the solars they seem to be setting up again for a continuation down but I am not going to say when as I am not sure.
Watch for a gap up tomorrow for a short APPLE and BIDU seem to be weak here