The market rose last week and Monday/Tuesday on Fantasy Thinking. Which, in layman's terms is HOPE. The fantasy that the Fed's moves are loosening the credit markets, freeing up captial for lending to stimulate the economy. The fantasy that a new President, will be able to solve what until now is unsolvable. The fantasy that valuations are so compelling that even though the whole world is in the crapper, you should be buying because the market is "cheap", and the fantasy that the market is forward thinking, and therefore the economy will turn around eventually and so you should be buying now for the time when the turn happens.
The Madness is believing any or all of the above and acting on it. The Madness is the government continually finding reasons to bail out companies that are antiquated because "it's too big to fail". The Madness is listening to these "reports" that suddenly get released right before GM's earnings that say that if ONE of the big three car makers fails that it will basically ruin the economy to the point of no return, and cost $100 BILLION. The Madness is that I haven't heard anyone say who sponsored this "report" and I'm thinking there is a conflict of interest in there somewhere. The Madness is that we're bailing out homeowners that can't afford the standard of living they have. The Madness is that despite every evidence to the contrary, analysts, fund managers and investors refuse to accept the fact that the market is not just a little overpriced, that it is VASTLY overpriced, even at 8600, even at 7500 and even probably at 5000.
I am VERY empathetic to those amongst us that are struggling because I am in the same boat too. Most of us are struggling on some or many levels, there is a dark cloud hanging over a lot of things right now. I know that it is very un-PC to suggest that GM and FORD be allowed to fail and go bankrupt. There is, however, a very distinct conflict of interest when the government is deciding who gets taken care of, and who doesn't. I am going to start a company and employ thousands next week and ask for a bailout, so send your resumes to me!!!!Why should the people here have to go on unemployment while the government is going to bail out companies that can not possibly succeed. So, all they are doing is protecting the pension plans, and jobs that aren't necessary. It would be, in my opinion, much better for the government to extend unemployment benefits and in fact RAISE them dramatically so that there is a cost savings, rather than keeping companies going that will just bleed the taxpayers of everything they have, and thus extend this misery? Can you believe GM is losing 1 BILLION A MONTH! and they want the tax payers to pay for that!!!!. Just remember that when Enron went under, and LEH and others those people weren't remotely taken care of, they were let go and they let them lose everything in many cases. It's a problem when the government is just taking over everything on a whim, which is what's been happening clearly. Which is obviously SOCIALIZING the economy.
The sadness is the madness, and is the fantasy, because in my opinion most of what's being done will come back to haunt us, and it won't work - NONE OF IT. Yes, I am the grim reaper. Until the markets, companies, and people are allowed to succeed and fail organically again there will be no "bottom" in anything. It's frustrating. Look at everything they have thrown at the economy and at the markets and what good has it done? We are right off our multi-year lows and we show no sign of forming any kind of lasting bottom anywhere in sight. There is no rationale for anything being done, there hasn't been throughout this. That's part of why it's gotten worse, not better. The system is broken, and it needs to fail so that it can be reborn as something better and stronger. Nice rally last week, all those fools that rushed in to buy Monday and Tuesday this week are already SHOT. There needs to be a "time out" and a plan, but that's fantasy, madness and sadness on my part since it's just not happening and not likely to do so. Let's see what they do with GM. They can't possibly be ridiculous enough to give a $25 BIL loan to a company that is never going to recover. NEVER. You can point to history all you want, but as long as they have all those pensions on their books its just impossible for them to make enough to cover their nuts. Very sad.
I use to say people 401k's will be 201k as a joke but I think it will be 01k's soon. The markets are going to test those lows very soon and tomorrow job numbers might be the worst in over a decade so don't be surprised as it hasn't included the announced layoffs this week at Wells Fargo, Dell, Google, HP, Goldman Sachs (cutting 40%) and many more.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
NICE
Nice call on GOOG and GS. Both look like they want much lower prices. Have those GOOG puts and SKF longs to ride out this decline. As I said last week, very strong trend of selling the election results.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
What now
Now that the election is over I can say alittle something to the readers of my blog. I am 1000% an independent and the reason being is this. There is no possible way for a logical person to be totally liberal in everything in their life or to be 100% conservative in their lives, just completely ridiculous.
I have to say I was completely impressed by the classiness of both candidates post- election speeches. I also have to say and anyone can correct me, personally I have never seen this type of enthusiasm for a candidate in any country's election in my lifetime. Whether or not the substance ends up being there I think it fair to give someone who, at least on the surface, carries a message that in my opinion has been sorely lacking in this country for a very very long time. We tend to be hero worshippers, I think, in this country. We put celebrities, politicians, CEO's of big companies and others at times on pedal stools. We being a great big grandiose statement and a gross generalization. Yet, I've found it to be true. Many of us tend to compare our insides to others outsides and when you do that you always end up as a loser. Everyone has their own issues, imperfections and challenges, it's all relative.
The knock on O'Bama is and remains to his detractors that he is all style and no substance. Even I have said that, at times. And, that may yet turn out to be true, but this country is in dire need of HOPE and a change. One thing that I think happened after 9/11, at least in my view, is that fear became something that many 0f us lived with day to day. I certainly felt it at times. Fear does bad things to all animals, not just us humans. We become about survival, it's the old "flight or fright" mode. We start to look at things that are harmless as though they are out to "get us"
America was a country that was idolized and welcomed in most countries. Fear has helped create, in my opinion, a country that is loathed in places where we used to be greeted with open arms. Instead of talking softly and carrying a big stick, we've taken on the role of hitting things over the head before even talking. We rule by fear, instead of respect. Respect is earned through good deeds, honesty and openmindedness, and ethics. It's earned by speaking one's truth, and hearing what others have to say, even if we don't agree with it. The first amendment of this country is very powerful. Look at this blog, I write very inflamatory stuff at times. Without the first amendment I'd be arrested, or abused in some fashion because of some of the things I've written. People should not be judged by their words, but by their actions. I've heard many politicians talk about being centrist. They were going to work with both parties and while they may disagree about many things, they would walk away with respect and a better understanding. Until this financial crisis occurred I have never seen both parties actually work together. Crisis does that at times. So does fear. I guess perhaps that's the flip side of things. Can you imagine what it might be like if that was an everyday, or at least every year occurrence in government? Instead of thinking about the individual, it became about democracy. Instead of being a world leader based on how many weapons we have, we went back to being a world leader based on the merits of our actions as a whole. Maybe that's just plain naive, or perhaps some would view that as "whimpy". I think John McCain's speech was outstanding. I actually thought President Bush's short talk this morning was outstanding, and human.
To me, we're all in this together when it comes down to it. That's the other thing 9/11 teaches. Republican's, Dems, Libertarians, gays, straights, Jews, Christians, Muslims, agnostic's were all killed in that act of terror. Will O'bama be a bust? It's certainly possible, but he already has the respect of other nations. When was the last time other countries people's wore shirts with a US President's face on them? I do not agree with some of the things O'bama has stated he wants to do on his agenda, particularly economically. But, I do have a sense that at least he will TRY to live up to his promises, and in this day and age where politicians make promises that even they know they have no shot of keeping, that is pretty refreshing. The only thing we really own in this life is our own integrity. O'Bama isn't remotely perfect, and he's certainly got flaws and will be a flawed president because that's the nature of life, and the Presidency. You can't please everyone, but the guy won over 52% of the popular vote.
Perhaps fear itself in this case worked for him, in fact I am sure of it. He almost surely would not have won had the economy not been in such bad shape and were the USA still looked upon with reverence and respect throughout the world. Surely we are not, and we haven't been for a long while. I think we stooped to our enemies level, and in a way, perhaps lost our integrity. Wall Street is not going to be happy with O'Bama, and I'm happy about that, because the vast majority of people in this country have more important things to worry about then whether or not the Dow is up 500 or down 500 today, tomorrow, or whenever.
So while I am very critical and skeptical of politicians, I think the guy deserves a shot to prove that this country can return to the status I would read and watch about while growing up. If all the history books will have down after his service is that he is the first Black President, then in my eyes he is a failure. I hate to put faith in politicians but I do believe he will have alot more substance than many imagine because of his struggles which many might not understand. We're all in this crazy thing we call life together, and that includes the entire world, not just US. The markets today are back to reality. Folks, we are going to go a lot lower, and you know what? That's ok, and it'll lead to a realistic market eventually.
I hate to rant on about politics because it can be a touchy issue for some but I had to say something because it affects the market today. I think the vast majority of us believe the government has failed the American people and on so many levels what is in place now is just not working. It is, indeed, time for a change. Is this the right change? I guess we'll find out soon enough. I certainly hope so. Whether you voted for the Obama or not, I loved what John McCain said, he is our President. Let's keep an open mind and heart.
MARKETJEDI
I have to say I was completely impressed by the classiness of both candidates post- election speeches. I also have to say and anyone can correct me, personally I have never seen this type of enthusiasm for a candidate in any country's election in my lifetime. Whether or not the substance ends up being there I think it fair to give someone who, at least on the surface, carries a message that in my opinion has been sorely lacking in this country for a very very long time. We tend to be hero worshippers, I think, in this country. We put celebrities, politicians, CEO's of big companies and others at times on pedal stools. We being a great big grandiose statement and a gross generalization. Yet, I've found it to be true. Many of us tend to compare our insides to others outsides and when you do that you always end up as a loser. Everyone has their own issues, imperfections and challenges, it's all relative.
The knock on O'Bama is and remains to his detractors that he is all style and no substance. Even I have said that, at times. And, that may yet turn out to be true, but this country is in dire need of HOPE and a change. One thing that I think happened after 9/11, at least in my view, is that fear became something that many 0f us lived with day to day. I certainly felt it at times. Fear does bad things to all animals, not just us humans. We become about survival, it's the old "flight or fright" mode. We start to look at things that are harmless as though they are out to "get us"
America was a country that was idolized and welcomed in most countries. Fear has helped create, in my opinion, a country that is loathed in places where we used to be greeted with open arms. Instead of talking softly and carrying a big stick, we've taken on the role of hitting things over the head before even talking. We rule by fear, instead of respect. Respect is earned through good deeds, honesty and openmindedness, and ethics. It's earned by speaking one's truth, and hearing what others have to say, even if we don't agree with it. The first amendment of this country is very powerful. Look at this blog, I write very inflamatory stuff at times. Without the first amendment I'd be arrested, or abused in some fashion because of some of the things I've written. People should not be judged by their words, but by their actions. I've heard many politicians talk about being centrist. They were going to work with both parties and while they may disagree about many things, they would walk away with respect and a better understanding. Until this financial crisis occurred I have never seen both parties actually work together. Crisis does that at times. So does fear. I guess perhaps that's the flip side of things. Can you imagine what it might be like if that was an everyday, or at least every year occurrence in government? Instead of thinking about the individual, it became about democracy. Instead of being a world leader based on how many weapons we have, we went back to being a world leader based on the merits of our actions as a whole. Maybe that's just plain naive, or perhaps some would view that as "whimpy". I think John McCain's speech was outstanding. I actually thought President Bush's short talk this morning was outstanding, and human.
To me, we're all in this together when it comes down to it. That's the other thing 9/11 teaches. Republican's, Dems, Libertarians, gays, straights, Jews, Christians, Muslims, agnostic's were all killed in that act of terror. Will O'bama be a bust? It's certainly possible, but he already has the respect of other nations. When was the last time other countries people's wore shirts with a US President's face on them? I do not agree with some of the things O'bama has stated he wants to do on his agenda, particularly economically. But, I do have a sense that at least he will TRY to live up to his promises, and in this day and age where politicians make promises that even they know they have no shot of keeping, that is pretty refreshing. The only thing we really own in this life is our own integrity. O'Bama isn't remotely perfect, and he's certainly got flaws and will be a flawed president because that's the nature of life, and the Presidency. You can't please everyone, but the guy won over 52% of the popular vote.
Perhaps fear itself in this case worked for him, in fact I am sure of it. He almost surely would not have won had the economy not been in such bad shape and were the USA still looked upon with reverence and respect throughout the world. Surely we are not, and we haven't been for a long while. I think we stooped to our enemies level, and in a way, perhaps lost our integrity. Wall Street is not going to be happy with O'Bama, and I'm happy about that, because the vast majority of people in this country have more important things to worry about then whether or not the Dow is up 500 or down 500 today, tomorrow, or whenever.
So while I am very critical and skeptical of politicians, I think the guy deserves a shot to prove that this country can return to the status I would read and watch about while growing up. If all the history books will have down after his service is that he is the first Black President, then in my eyes he is a failure. I hate to put faith in politicians but I do believe he will have alot more substance than many imagine because of his struggles which many might not understand. We're all in this crazy thing we call life together, and that includes the entire world, not just US. The markets today are back to reality. Folks, we are going to go a lot lower, and you know what? That's ok, and it'll lead to a realistic market eventually.
I hate to rant on about politics because it can be a touchy issue for some but I had to say something because it affects the market today. I think the vast majority of us believe the government has failed the American people and on so many levels what is in place now is just not working. It is, indeed, time for a change. Is this the right change? I guess we'll find out soon enough. I certainly hope so. Whether you voted for the Obama or not, I loved what John McCain said, he is our President. Let's keep an open mind and heart.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
1000 Magic Number
So we hit the magic 1000 number on the S&P today and ended 5 points above it. Tomorrow we either gap up huge into some resistance which would be a gift to short or we gap down huge on the possibility of a 2004 replay of the election.
Personally as I said, it doesn't matter to me who wins because the present problems can't be cured in a week and the news today of Google and Dell implementing hiring freezes and cutting work hours is testament of how weak this economy is.
It is going to take a lot of work to turn around this titanic ship economy and I am afraid that we are just at the beginning stages of the decline, so saying that I must reiterate my views of this being a bear market rally and not to be suckered into believe it is more than that. I spoke weeks ago of not being short because we are due for a rally and this is the rally I was speaking of! Now there is a strong feeling we sell the news on an Obama victory and head lower and that we rally hard if McCain wins. I believe either way we will move alittle higher but it will be very short lived, who knows maybe we get a huge gap up tomorrow and that might be all the market wrote.
One thing I know personally, I am glad the elections are over so I dont have to hear crap about taxes and personal sound bites by politicians who feed on the weak minded of us, but that's the world we live in.
I see alot of stuff setting up here so GET READY!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Personally as I said, it doesn't matter to me who wins because the present problems can't be cured in a week and the news today of Google and Dell implementing hiring freezes and cutting work hours is testament of how weak this economy is.
It is going to take a lot of work to turn around this titanic ship economy and I am afraid that we are just at the beginning stages of the decline, so saying that I must reiterate my views of this being a bear market rally and not to be suckered into believe it is more than that. I spoke weeks ago of not being short because we are due for a rally and this is the rally I was speaking of! Now there is a strong feeling we sell the news on an Obama victory and head lower and that we rally hard if McCain wins. I believe either way we will move alittle higher but it will be very short lived, who knows maybe we get a huge gap up tomorrow and that might be all the market wrote.
One thing I know personally, I am glad the elections are over so I dont have to hear crap about taxes and personal sound bites by politicians who feed on the weak minded of us, but that's the world we live in.
I see alot of stuff setting up here so GET READY!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
S&P 1000
Well S&P 100 right here mid day of the election. Market has good upside momentum here and I would not be surprised if we hit that 1053 number I have been talking about. Dow 9600 here is heading into the bottom of the upside range potential.
Nothing much going on and I expect tomorrow and thursday to be true test of the markets. I have a feeling next week we will go down but I am not jumping on that wagon till I see this play out.
MARKETJEDI
Nothing much going on and I expect tomorrow and thursday to be true test of the markets. I have a feeling next week we will go down but I am not jumping on that wagon till I see this play out.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, November 3, 2008
Much to do about nothing
Well tomorrow America votes on their new leader for the next four yearS. Personally I dont care who wins as politics in this nation is all about the people who have the money and the lobbyists and not for the regular guy. The feed the little guy crap only when it is election time because the truth is the little guy is the one who vote the politicians in.
Wall street is already factoring an Obama victory and even CNBC which is by far for the Republicans are talking tonight about who Obama will pick as his Secretary of State and Treasury. No matter what, the stock market will have a rough time in the coming years and it is not contributed to whichever party will win tomorrow but contributed to a system of capitalism which is broken because of the abuses from thieves and selfish men.
The market looks higher here! How far it will go is the real question. I think 9800-10300 should be the top on this swing before we head lower. I just can't see how the market will fight the head winds of the recession which might be deep and long.
S&P 1023 and then 1050 are spots I am looking for to begin some shorts positions, which I think might happen this week. If we do get a rally wednesday or thursday it is a good chance we fade it hard so be careful if you are long.
I hope I am wrong and we blast to 13000 on the DOW and we can sucker in some more bulls but I dont see it happening as the fact is still that the market is so overvalued that there is no shot we wont see lower prices.
I will be back on Wednesday as I dont think we will have much action tomorrow.
MARKETJEDI
Wall street is already factoring an Obama victory and even CNBC which is by far for the Republicans are talking tonight about who Obama will pick as his Secretary of State and Treasury. No matter what, the stock market will have a rough time in the coming years and it is not contributed to whichever party will win tomorrow but contributed to a system of capitalism which is broken because of the abuses from thieves and selfish men.
The market looks higher here! How far it will go is the real question. I think 9800-10300 should be the top on this swing before we head lower. I just can't see how the market will fight the head winds of the recession which might be deep and long.
S&P 1023 and then 1050 are spots I am looking for to begin some shorts positions, which I think might happen this week. If we do get a rally wednesday or thursday it is a good chance we fade it hard so be careful if you are long.
I hope I am wrong and we blast to 13000 on the DOW and we can sucker in some more bulls but I dont see it happening as the fact is still that the market is so overvalued that there is no shot we wont see lower prices.
I will be back on Wednesday as I dont think we will have much action tomorrow.
MARKETJEDI
Monday
Don't expect much to happen today with the election tomorrow. I will update if I do see anything
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