Monday, January 5, 2009
Not much
Not much action today to talk about. We should get positive tomorrow as I still think we should push higher here. From the volume it seems like most traders took off today but we will see what happens in the coming days.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Staying Alert for 2009
There is a lot of complacency in the market at the moment. When there is so much complacency it usually means the present trend is not sustainable long term. The FED has completely wrecked our financial structure that I believe the worst is yet to come. Having said, that I am reconfirming my stand here, that I am leaning to the long side pre-inauguration of Obama. The general feeling out there is Obama is going to be a cure all to the ills of the last 8 years. I am not going to be political here but it is going to be very hard to under perform the present administration when it comes to economic policies. My problem with Obama is that he has picked no new blood for his economic committees and none who are out of the box thinkers to help us out of this crisis, he is virtually recycling all of the Clinton's staffers which I think is out of date in their thinking just like Bush picked numerous persons who worked in his father's administration and that proved to be lethal.
All I want the government to do is tell the truth and stop railroading us for the elite of society. It would be great if for 2009 the government was totally transparent and we deal with the bad news as it comes and we feel we are all in it together.
The first trading days should be positive and I expect an uptrend into this week. There is a bunch of smaller cap stocks that should move this week as they are classified as 'laggers'. I want to state now that I believe that the DOW will 100% see 4500 in the next 18 months. We will see a lot of upside action because of the new administration euphoria but it will be short lived. The only way we don't get to DOW 4500 within 18 months would be the total destruction of the US dollar. The devaluation of the US dollar will put us along side Japan as a low growth nation for years. The long term danger in my opinion is not really the financial crisis but the devaluation of the dollar. The financial system will almost 100% be nationalized to save us from a virtual financial destruction and I don't know if Wall Street will be the same after all is said and done.
In closing this will be a trading market for years to come, forget buy and hold, that philosophy is DEAD. I think the FED has put us in a bad situation and we will be paying for it dearly.
MARKETJEDI
All I want the government to do is tell the truth and stop railroading us for the elite of society. It would be great if for 2009 the government was totally transparent and we deal with the bad news as it comes and we feel we are all in it together.
The first trading days should be positive and I expect an uptrend into this week. There is a bunch of smaller cap stocks that should move this week as they are classified as 'laggers'. I want to state now that I believe that the DOW will 100% see 4500 in the next 18 months. We will see a lot of upside action because of the new administration euphoria but it will be short lived. The only way we don't get to DOW 4500 within 18 months would be the total destruction of the US dollar. The devaluation of the US dollar will put us along side Japan as a low growth nation for years. The long term danger in my opinion is not really the financial crisis but the devaluation of the dollar. The financial system will almost 100% be nationalized to save us from a virtual financial destruction and I don't know if Wall Street will be the same after all is said and done.
In closing this will be a trading market for years to come, forget buy and hold, that philosophy is DEAD. I think the FED has put us in a bad situation and we will be paying for it dearly.
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Weekend Update
I have about three short points to make from stuff I have been reading since the market close yesterday. Firstly most analysts are finally saying there is no housing recover in sight for 2009 and beyond. Unemployment and the credit crisis will be the underlining problem for housing in the upcoming years and I couldn't agree more.
Secondly, I read numerous notes about low of negative GDP, which is not very good. The clincher here though is how the Obama administration deal with the stimulus plan when they take office and the psychology of the process. A little history note here for some of you. After the great depression the stimulus plan did alleviate some of the effects of the depression but it was not the end all of the economic crisis. What really ended the economic crisis of the great depression was the War, yes the War, the trillions that were spent to make the war successful put almost all americans unemployed by the depression back to work and revitalized new areas of the country that were at a stand still. Now I hope it doesn't take a huge war to get us out of this economic woe but through some smarter monetary action by government, especially to put us back on track as a leader in social, educational and health in the world.
Third point to make is great for some of you. From the technicals I have been reading many think we are in the beginning of a correction wave in the markets. I think it is too soon to tell but if we are, it could push us HARD to the upside. The corrective move should be around 50% of the move down, which could point us in the direction of 11000 on the DOW. I personally hope this situation pans out because many have lost much in the markets and this will cut some of those losses for sure. The key though will be to take profits at those levels and ride it down, yes ride it back down, we are in BEAR market and we MUST proceed with caution if we do get a massive rally.
I still think DOW hits 4500, it is a done deal in the next 15 months.
MARKETJEDI
Secondly, I read numerous notes about low of negative GDP, which is not very good. The clincher here though is how the Obama administration deal with the stimulus plan when they take office and the psychology of the process. A little history note here for some of you. After the great depression the stimulus plan did alleviate some of the effects of the depression but it was not the end all of the economic crisis. What really ended the economic crisis of the great depression was the War, yes the War, the trillions that were spent to make the war successful put almost all americans unemployed by the depression back to work and revitalized new areas of the country that were at a stand still. Now I hope it doesn't take a huge war to get us out of this economic woe but through some smarter monetary action by government, especially to put us back on track as a leader in social, educational and health in the world.
Third point to make is great for some of you. From the technicals I have been reading many think we are in the beginning of a correction wave in the markets. I think it is too soon to tell but if we are, it could push us HARD to the upside. The corrective move should be around 50% of the move down, which could point us in the direction of 11000 on the DOW. I personally hope this situation pans out because many have lost much in the markets and this will cut some of those losses for sure. The key though will be to take profits at those levels and ride it down, yes ride it back down, we are in BEAR market and we MUST proceed with caution if we do get a massive rally.
I still think DOW hits 4500, it is a done deal in the next 15 months.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, January 2, 2009
They found Santa!!!!!
Well seem they found Santa and I SHOULD have held that SSO trade call. Would be worth a DOUBLE if I held till today, but a day too early and 70% more would have been a banging start to the new year. The first three trading days of the year have a high probability to be positive and the action in January usually signals what happens for the rest of the year. We hit that 918 and went beyond which is very bullish action although on light volume. Our EBAY calls are still trying lets hope it gives us some profit and get the 2009 going good, man i am upset about selling those SSO calls but oh well, next trade!!!
I have a play for the Inauguration but I am giving it out to a very selected few :), which I think will be a monster, monster play.
STAY TUNED... I WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.
MARKETJEDI
I have a play for the Inauguration but I am giving it out to a very selected few :), which I think will be a monster, monster play.
STAY TUNED... I WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Resolutions
New Years resolutions are something that people make to note their shortfalls. To that extent my list should be extensive :) indeed. I for one is very far from perfect or where I really want to be in life but I try my best to make the negatives turn into positives or motivate me to do better. This year I think will be another wild year in the market and if I can I wont get caught up in the swings and just stay focused. I guarantee one thing anytime Cramer or the top analysts come out and say this is the bottom I will be shorting without mercy. I do think we bounce and we might bounce violently because people dont want to miss the boat up BUT this bear market will last for years and I am projecting it should last till Nov 2009. Just a note just because a bear market ends doesn't been we will project higher and I want to make a strong note of that, we could just be a range for years, which is the scenario I think might happen.
Real Estate is dead and wont com back for a long time, just too much inventory, coupled with the weakening credit and rising unemployment housing will not have any traction for years.
Commercial Real Estate I think will be also come into the same situation as consumer real estate. The news of poor holiday sales will prove to be the nail in the coffin for commercial real estate and we might be seeing an end to the build a mall anyway mentality of developers as the consumer begins to save where they can. I have a KILLER trade on this and I will show a few of you how to profit from this.
One more area I think will continue to see weakness is Banking. GS, I think can trade to $30 a share and possibly lower before this is all over. GS will eventually be gone in a few quarters because they can't sustain in this market with their present business plan. My #1 play for 2009 was RIMM and it totally was a winner even before the year started. My long term play still stands as FAZ and I think it will prove to be a double when all is said and done.
Finally I hope most of you have been reading the blog deciphering the inner statements and using it and stop giving credence to these mutual funds etc who continue losing your funds. Arm yourself will analytical skills and you can do it better than any money manager out there (except me! as I want to manage your funds) :). I got a few ideas just like early last year which panned out great (remember FNM, Citibank, Wachovia, S&P). Got some here folks, wont let you down 2009 is going to be better than 2008 so saddle up.
Real Estate is dead and wont com back for a long time, just too much inventory, coupled with the weakening credit and rising unemployment housing will not have any traction for years.
Commercial Real Estate I think will be also come into the same situation as consumer real estate. The news of poor holiday sales will prove to be the nail in the coffin for commercial real estate and we might be seeing an end to the build a mall anyway mentality of developers as the consumer begins to save where they can. I have a KILLER trade on this and I will show a few of you how to profit from this.
One more area I think will continue to see weakness is Banking. GS, I think can trade to $30 a share and possibly lower before this is all over. GS will eventually be gone in a few quarters because they can't sustain in this market with their present business plan. My #1 play for 2009 was RIMM and it totally was a winner even before the year started. My long term play still stands as FAZ and I think it will prove to be a double when all is said and done.
Finally I hope most of you have been reading the blog deciphering the inner statements and using it and stop giving credence to these mutual funds etc who continue losing your funds. Arm yourself will analytical skills and you can do it better than any money manager out there (except me! as I want to manage your funds) :). I got a few ideas just like early last year which panned out great (remember FNM, Citibank, Wachovia, S&P). Got some here folks, wont let you down 2009 is going to be better than 2008 so saddle up.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
TRADE CALL UPDATE: SSO calls: SOJAY
Selling them here @$2.35, bought at $1.85.
You had time to get into these as I said it was a play on the notion that we would bounce. Not bad almost 30% profit in a week.
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
You had time to get into these as I said it was a play on the notion that we would bounce. Not bad almost 30% profit in a week.
ONLY WINNERS HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
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