Thursday, February 26, 2009

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Scary Thought

Many of you know how I feel about the markets and the intervention of the FED and government to slow the fall of the markets. It would be great if they had their hands off and let us have a huge sell off at higher prices and I would almost have guaranteed that we would not have seen these prices here. Well since we did have intervention all we get are pops which are then sold into prolonging the inevitable.
I have been talking to many traders who have years experience or me and most are saying the same thing: March will mark some huge sell off where we can work higher in the intermediate term.
As of today I have a possible low towards the end of next week from my analysis but one trader who I admire very much told me today that his analysis is telling him a significant low will be in mid March. Only thing I can deduce from our talks today is that sometime in March we will get a sell off which will get us below those November 2008 lows solidly.
Some first numbers I have are 716-718 area on the S&P then 680. I hope we are both wrong but it was so striking that we use totally different methods and came to the same conclusion.

For us traders it doesn't matter where the market goes as long as we are on for the ride. I am keeping my shorts here no matter what and if we rally I will surely add.


MARKETJEDI

WOW- No follow through

We just can't muster up two up days geez. I dont know what else to tell you folks who wont listen. Well I think we get a decent flush out early March and get a tradeable rally. There is a good shot this scenario works out and flush out the last weak bulls.
Now the question as usual is how far we bounce when that happens I have no clue but I will be playing it, whichever way it goes.

Still short STT, PALM, SUPG and WFC here and Not covering, why should I.

MARKETJEDI

Wednesday

Bernanke talking today @ 10am so remember that. I will be busy today with some stuff so I might not post again for the day.

Good luck

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Market Thoughts

Well today we got a bounce and what a bounce it was pathetic indeed, no volume and just the oversold financial really pushed higher. I am going to follow my instincts here and say it was all based on Bernanke talking today and nothing else. I have no faith in bear market rallies and saying that there is no way we have seen the lows. A matter of fact I think we have a terrible March.
I will play it as it comes and if this is a rally we can jump on board for real but I have no reason to believe this is sustainable beyond a couple of days.


MARKETJEDI

I will stick to my plans

Patience

Patience is the key for me today- I will be shorting this gap up but then I will sit back and watch to see what they want to do. 6-7 straight down days I am sure the bulls dont want to add another so I would expect them to try higher but who knows what will happen.

I am basically playing it close to the vest today and watching