Some timing stuff

I think we could see a little top tomorrow. Why ? on my daily charts it is signaling a peak today or tomorrow as I would be lightening up on any long I have if I did. Dangerous to say go short but we should get a pullback based on the daily charts

Levels to Watch

S&P 808 and 801 are important levels to watch. My gut felling tells me we want 780 area on the S&P and today's 792 might have been that test but who knows.
Watch that 801 level again. if tomorrow we test it and dont hold we will see some weakness belows today lows.
Watch for resistance at the 825 level again if we go up initially tomorrow.

Interesting action

These last three weeks in the market has been very difficult to analyze. Often when you see movement like this it usually means we are in a consolidation cycle or wave and we are merely pushing and pulling between the bulls and the bears. Today action is a perfect example why you have to stay out of the market till we break out of this consolidation. We gave back 300 points on the DOW and then rallied 100+points to end the day positive. Now if you weren't a market watcher you might be like oh the DOW was +89 today but it was one wild ride.
I think we will be in this torture till earnings seasons next month and also till we get the news out about the mark to market and whatever other kind of manipulation they want to put on the market. The problem is near term folks will side step the problems underlining the markets and think these actions will help and send us higher but in the longer term is will just be disasterous because the market MUST be allowed to correct itself without intervention, all they are basically doing is delaying the inevitable and for most of us get killed once again
There is a good shot from the charts I am looking at we are close to a intermediate top here but the problem is that we have windows dressing and most manager will try to fudge their books as usual because March was an up month. What happens in April will all be earnings related, I hope the big guns of GE, Microsoft, Google, Apple and the Banks report good news are we could fall hard. My best guess is we will push up into earnings and half way through we start selling off. Right here is NO MAN'S LAND and it must be respected there is nothing we can do till the market really tips it hands. Play light as it is total chop fest out there.


MARKETJEDI

Market selling off

Just if no one realizes the market is selling off on news that the US latest issuance of Bonds were poorly received.
This is very very bad news for the administration who is trying to raise funds to implement stimulus packages. This will put a shot in the US dollar and as I have been saying this is one of the reasons why the US dollar weakness is the main thing to fear in the future.

Chop Chop and Chop

Not much to talk about here folks but dont expect us to move down into the end of month, Why? because we will have one of the first upside window dressing in months. The fact that the financials and other beaten down sectors have performed well many fund managers will want to end them to their books to look like they are smart.
Also I think wave theorist are wrong on the current wave count in the market. Most are thinking we crash and go to new lows here BUT I dont think so. I really think we chop around or grind higher till we get news on the market to market decision, then their will be the top of this run up.
Right now folks is a time just to kick back and watch, yesterday was testament to this, there will be tons of opportunities soon but right now we are in chopfest mode.



MARKETJEDI

Beginning of the end of the US Dollar

China calls for new reserve currency

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Published: March 23 2009 12:16 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:06

China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.

In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies”.

Upside

I got an email asking about how far I think we can go to the upside. Well I did some projections over the weekend on based on some waves I was counting especially with respect to that 804/805 area. Since we broke it to the upside and filled the gap in that 820 area I am looking at a possible resistance up at the 940 area and possibly the ultimate push as most of you who have been reading the blog my projection of 1045( wrote about that number many times in Nov, Dec 2008).
It is very hard to trade a day where we gap up and never look back but whether it was the Geithner news or just a natural bounce in a oversold climate, one thing is sure we dont go up or down in a straight line and I expect up to back and fill in the mid 700 area of the S&P. As long as we hold that 745 area the bulls will be ok and the upside.
The 900 level on the S&P might come in very fast and that's my only fear as we might do all the gains in a short period of time that we have nothing left to do but dive.

We will see soon enough. Remember we should start the day up tomorrow but be mindful of the turn around tuesday phemomenon.


MARKETJEDI