Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Home Prices no end in decline

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A widely watched index shows American home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in January.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 19 percent from January 2008. It was the largest decline since the index started in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.4 percent, also a new record.

All 20 cities in the report showed monthly and annual price declines.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted 29 percent from their peak in summer 2006, while the 10-city index has fallen 30 percent. Prices are at levels not seen since late 2003.

Phoenix Arozina

Home prices down 48% from their peak. WOW is all I can say. I mean really why would I still own a home there it makes no sense just walk away. You bought a home for 300k and now it is worth $160 but your mortgage is 240k, why still pay it! makes no sense. Some of these places prices will never reach those peak prices without a drastic decline in the value of the US dollar and massive inflation.

Hmmm the stories never end

Server Issues

A number of brokers early are sending out connectivity problems to the exchanges this morning. Make sure if you trading or logging on you check. Remember rumor of big virus suppose to hit tonight April 1st

Last day in March

Even with a positive March the market could not shake the depth of the bear market marking the first time since the 1930 the market have has six straight quarters of negative gains. April I hope is not as choppy as March but from what I am seeing here we 'SHOULD' get a bit of upside here. This morning we are gapping up and hopefully we fill the gap before moving higher. Why am I positive on he day? Well friday and yesterday we basically gapped down and failed to fill the gap, so I am just betting on a relief of some of this selling. I could be wrong but we will see soon enough.
Look for 800 and ultimately 805/806 to be strong resistance this morning/ today and a move above 808 which was previous support would put the bulls in good standing for the start of April.
I do think on the next decline we go below 750 area possibly to 732 but we will see when we are closer to that set up.

MARKETJEDI

Monday, March 30, 2009

Watch the tape

Tomorrow is the last day of the month but I must caution those who want to short this so quickly. The first 3 days of April are usually positive and I would not be surprise to see us gap down and then turn around tomorrow. The market is in NO MAN'S LAND still and that's why I am not going to make any big bets till this consolidation tips its hand.
A little patience will help here. Don't worry the market will tip its hand very very soon as earnings is in two weeks.
On a side note this week is the decision on mark to market accounting and I am of the view the financials if they get a bump after the decision they will sell off HARD.
Also George Soros, noted today that the upcoming G-20 meeting is the single most important event for the world markets. He proclaimed that if the G-20 leaders are not all on the same board we will end the crisis in depression mode. I hope for all our sakes they will act for the benefit of the world and not their countries self interest.



MARKETJEDI

Thought

I think we will have upside or chop around till about June, July.

Banks

Well friday's news of JP Morgan pessimistic outlook for the next quarter seem to have just set in today. As noted last week we were flying on windows dressing phenomenon and today was testament to that as most managers would have to already bought stocks to show it on their books tomorrow, the last day of the month.
March was been a stressful month indeed and I am telling you this April into May should be very much the same. I hear alot of people coming out and saying because we had two down days the rally is over and we going to new lows but I am thinking new lows wont happen on the push down and it is a mere correction of the upward move we had in the past three weeks. Now am I mr. bull now, NO, but nothing goes in a straight like and I believe that this bear market should last till mid 2011 so we have alot of time to correct higher and then make new lows.
Anyone check out GS today. Man that sucker died like some bad news was around but nope it just shows you any stock that can retrace that amount after being up so much was not a investment but merely a trading stock. I hope some are learning what I am trying to bring forth here and not get caught up with the Jim Cramer of the world who is always on the wrong side of the market. Last week he was calling for the moon now we are down 400 points, man that's some record. I am down on one trade and I get emails asking me about it :) Life is so funny.
This is a race but not a sprint, it should be a marathon. Slow and steady and remember you not always going to be correct on your trades but the marathon method is more winners than losers and you will be ok at the end of the race.


Good Trading


MARKETJEDI-

P.S. I think commercial real estate is going to be in the dump for a long time. I thing that one is just beginning to roll over.