Thursday, April 16, 2009
Overnight
The craziness of the last 3 weeks continued overnight as we moved in a 15 point range in the S&P futures. This is unheard of but seem to be regular these past 3 weeks. One reason could be the light volume of the US participants in the globex so the Europeans traders have more weights on the markets overnight.
GOOG
Remember GOOGLILICUOUS reports after market and that can move the nasdaq. Dont be fooled remember GOOG co-founder is in Obama's administration and I am very sure they got some business passed their way on that. I am looking for a strong quarter and outlook but you never know but if I wa a betting guy that would be my bet. Where the stock goes is another question!!!!
JPM Reports
JPM reports this morning and looks like their net profit is down 10%. The stock is down pre market but come on the street already knew this two weeks ago when Dimon said the quarter would be rough.
JPM don't seem as strong in my opinion here. Think about it they changed the accounting rules and that didn't benefit them.
Telling you this here and now I believe BAC will be the top bank in the future. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
JPM don't seem as strong in my opinion here. Think about it they changed the accounting rules and that didn't benefit them.
Telling you this here and now I believe BAC will be the top bank in the future. We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Article on Hyper-Inflation
The economy is cratering, so the Fed is printing money. When the Fed prints money, this eventually produces inflation (more dollars, same amount of goods).
Ben Bernanke assured us yesterday that, this time, the Fed's money-printing won't eventually lead to inflation because the moment the economy begins to recover, the Fed will stop printing money and start burning it. Specifically, the Fed will start selling assets instead of buying them and thus shrink the money supply.
Unfortunately, Ben is unlikely to keep this promise.
Why?
Several reasons:
* First, it will be hard to confidently assert that the economy in full recovery. Remember, in 2007, Ben (and most other people) thought the economy was in great shape as far as the eye could see. He and most other observers missed that disastrous turning point. So why do we think he'll correctly spot the next one? Especially because, if he blows it by jacking up rates too early, he'll kill the recovery.
* Second, there will be intense political pressure to MAKE SURE that the economy is in rip-roaring health before hammering consumers and businesses by raising interest rates. Everyone loves low interest rates. And they'll only stop screaming about your taking them away when they're fat and happy (which will be long after inflation really gets going).
* Third, the US government desperately needs low interest rates to fund its soon-to-be-monstrous debt load, so there will be another source of pressure on Ben to keep rates low. When we finish with all this stimulus, we're going to owe a boatload of money. We're really going to allow our Fed chief to send interest rates to the moon and jack up our refinancing costs?
* Fourth, many of the assets that Bernanke has been buying to print money won't be easy to sell. This time around, the Fed isn't just buying easy-to-sell Treasuries. It's buying trash mortgage assets, et al. To reduce the money supply, it will need to sell them to someone. But who?
In the latest issue of the Institutional Risk Analyst, Chris Whalen hammers this last point home. Chris thinks we're now officially addicted to low interest rates and that Bernanke will be both unwilling and unable to raise them significantly when the time comes. And the failure to raise, them, of course, will lead to hyper-inflation.
Ben Bernanke assured us yesterday that, this time, the Fed's money-printing won't eventually lead to inflation because the moment the economy begins to recover, the Fed will stop printing money and start burning it. Specifically, the Fed will start selling assets instead of buying them and thus shrink the money supply.
Unfortunately, Ben is unlikely to keep this promise.
Why?
Several reasons:
* First, it will be hard to confidently assert that the economy in full recovery. Remember, in 2007, Ben (and most other people) thought the economy was in great shape as far as the eye could see. He and most other observers missed that disastrous turning point. So why do we think he'll correctly spot the next one? Especially because, if he blows it by jacking up rates too early, he'll kill the recovery.
* Second, there will be intense political pressure to MAKE SURE that the economy is in rip-roaring health before hammering consumers and businesses by raising interest rates. Everyone loves low interest rates. And they'll only stop screaming about your taking them away when they're fat and happy (which will be long after inflation really gets going).
* Third, the US government desperately needs low interest rates to fund its soon-to-be-monstrous debt load, so there will be another source of pressure on Ben to keep rates low. When we finish with all this stimulus, we're going to owe a boatload of money. We're really going to allow our Fed chief to send interest rates to the moon and jack up our refinancing costs?
* Fourth, many of the assets that Bernanke has been buying to print money won't be easy to sell. This time around, the Fed isn't just buying easy-to-sell Treasuries. It's buying trash mortgage assets, et al. To reduce the money supply, it will need to sell them to someone. But who?
In the latest issue of the Institutional Risk Analyst, Chris Whalen hammers this last point home. Chris thinks we're now officially addicted to low interest rates and that Bernanke will be both unwilling and unable to raise them significantly when the time comes. And the failure to raise, them, of course, will lead to hyper-inflation.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Question about pullback
I got a question about pullback and how deep.
To answer the question here we could get a pullback to S&P 792 and still be in a bullish pattern, IF we break that then I would have to do our my analysis and see how lower the pattern could go.
Re: Gap fill area from last week is around 818-827, so watch here from support.
MARKETJEDI
To answer the question here we could get a pullback to S&P 792 and still be in a bullish pattern, IF we break that then I would have to do our my analysis and see how lower the pattern could go.
Re: Gap fill area from last week is around 818-827, so watch here from support.
MARKETJEDI
GS
I am going to write a long thesis on the Goldman Sachs sell off today when I feel much better health wise. The corrupt of the system runs so deep but I will try to explain as simple and concise as I can, when I do.
Simple though Goldman Sachs is the biggest crook around !!!!!!
Simple though Goldman Sachs is the biggest crook around !!!!!!
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