So many of you know I read extensively, I would say I read about about 25-30 hours a week what I call homework, (wish i was getting paid for it but you get paid in knowledge that most wont amass if not seen on a 10 min segment on CNBC). Talking about CNBC, viewership is down 30% especially in the 25-42 age group.
One of my regular reading is that of MR doom and gloom Faber. Last week thursday he claimed that the US will 100% go into a hyperinflationary period a thought I have had for years especially since 2007 when we started to see a huge issuance of bonds to fund the ever increasing deficit. I really do agree with this but the question is when? The thing with hyperinflation you dont want to be a owner of stocks you want to own hard commodities and be shorting bonds and having a increased allocation of long term bonds for income.
Dr. Doom as he is called to most of us was one of the first to spot China as the next great economical power and called the fall of the equity markets in 2008. He basically trades bonds, currencies and commodities.
For my readers who have interest in gold and other precious metals that news might be very pleasing to hear but who knows when we going to enter this hyperinflation phase.
If you are a very long term investor an accumulation of these metals might be a safe bet.
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, August 2, 2009
How did I get 1006 area
Well the projection is actually 1007. The question again is whether this will be the HIGH and another leg down perhaps breaking 666, or will this be a higher bottom test and then a longer rally to 1100-1200 on the S&P.
The best analysis for the bulls is the reverse Head and shoulder pattern in place on the daily and it would have a target somewhere up to the mid 1100 area. Since reverse head and shoulders are just that temporary patterns it would match up with renewed weakening of the economy and over valuation of stocks leading to aggressive profits taking. If the reverse head and shoulder pattern take complete form we will print 1007 for sure this week, the 37% retracement stands at 1028 and then the 50% retracement is 1125.
The best analysis for the bulls is the reverse Head and shoulder pattern in place on the daily and it would have a target somewhere up to the mid 1100 area. Since reverse head and shoulders are just that temporary patterns it would match up with renewed weakening of the economy and over valuation of stocks leading to aggressive profits taking. If the reverse head and shoulder pattern take complete form we will print 1007 for sure this week, the 37% retracement stands at 1028 and then the 50% retracement is 1125.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
S&P levels
The next level above that is significant is 1006. Please make note of my analysis from February which called for a high in the market somewhere in July. The last day of July proved to be the highest close for the market in 2009 but I still think we can go a little higher.
I hear a lot of people talking about the economy is getting better! could those people show me some proof and not just talk air :). I have said many times that the highest percentage returns in the market has been in bear markets so we must be careful with move up.
August must be noted as being an up month historically mainly because congress is on break. The market hates uncertainty and with congress being on break, we dont have that factor in the picture.
Lets see how high they want to push us but i am looking at that 1045/54 area (How many times I am calling that area ) to be some heavy resistance.
MARKETJEDI
I hear a lot of people talking about the economy is getting better! could those people show me some proof and not just talk air :). I have said many times that the highest percentage returns in the market has been in bear markets so we must be careful with move up.
August must be noted as being an up month historically mainly because congress is on break. The market hates uncertainty and with congress being on break, we dont have that factor in the picture.
Lets see how high they want to push us but i am looking at that 1045/54 area (How many times I am calling that area ) to be some heavy resistance.
MARKETJEDI
Corn Market
Another interesting grain market is Corn. Corn also rallied last week whether this is dollar related or economic related here is the wave chart below. Although it looks like a bear flag I think we should be looking at the grains for long positions on the weak dollar analysis. Look for a test of the 50% retracement
Soybeans update
Soybeans is a market I have been watching recently because of one of my associates
It surely had a nice week and took out some resistance mid week. Thursday we had a huge candle saying the volatility that happen in these markets. Friday we definitely closed at some resistance.
It surely had a nice week and took out some resistance mid week. Thursday we had a huge candle saying the volatility that happen in these markets. Friday we definitely closed at some resistance.
Friday, July 31, 2009
CRUDE
Crude took back yesterdays pounding and put in a engulfing bullish candle to start its C leg. Another monster range day around $4.53 with impressive volume which is the strongest since 5/7/09.
They finished off B in the globex session and left no doubts we were in the C part of the structure. It appears that we should be fairly close to completing wave 1 of 5.
AB=CD at 72.29. Retracements from the high include the 61.8% at 68.95, which is basically the high of A. There is also confluence around the 70.30 price with both the 70.7% and the 78.6% projection of A.
I am also getting a project higher also at around $74.55
This market is very buyable after it traces out its 2 wave IMO. I will be looking to put on a long line via calls. As always, please due your own due diligence before trading as Oil is definitely a beast by itself.
Time Cycles say we could have a daily peak tomorrow. This might coincide with the completion of 1. The next major peak we should be watching for doesn't come in for another 11 trading days.
Again folks, this doesn't mean price is going up for the next 11 days. It means that in 11 trading days, wherever price is at, should be a peak day. Price could very well be lower for the peak.
Have a great weekend
They finished off B in the globex session and left no doubts we were in the C part of the structure. It appears that we should be fairly close to completing wave 1 of 5.
AB=CD at 72.29. Retracements from the high include the 61.8% at 68.95, which is basically the high of A. There is also confluence around the 70.30 price with both the 70.7% and the 78.6% projection of A.
I am also getting a project higher also at around $74.55
This market is very buyable after it traces out its 2 wave IMO. I will be looking to put on a long line via calls. As always, please due your own due diligence before trading as Oil is definitely a beast by itself.
Time Cycles say we could have a daily peak tomorrow. This might coincide with the completion of 1. The next major peak we should be watching for doesn't come in for another 11 trading days.
Again folks, this doesn't mean price is going up for the next 11 days. It means that in 11 trading days, wherever price is at, should be a peak day. Price could very well be lower for the peak.
Have a great weekend
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
