Wheat Update

The wheat market continues with its dowtrend. It appears that it traced out a corrective flat this week and is ready to resume selling.

I am not sure exactly what finished at the 486 L. I have had an intermediate (1) of (5) label, but it very well could be wave (3). My guess is that the pivot low is most likely wave (3).

Regardless, this downside structure is nearing completion if my interpretation is correct. I have introduced a new alternative count, which is a much more bearish count.

It has wheat in primary [3] currently. This count would portend much lower price. This view, I believe, is a lower probability outcome.

The first order of business is for price action to take out the 486 level. This would confirm that the corrective is indeed finished.

IF we have completed a 1 and 2 off the corrective 517.25 H, then we have minor degree targets at 475.25 (161.8% projection) and 453.25 (261.8% projection) respectively.

Primary targets include the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 465.75, which is our minimum objective. [5] = [1] - [3] at 391.50.

Corn Update

The corn market remains in its downtrend.

It is unclear if corn has finished this corrective or not. I have left the retracement levels on the chart if price needs additional time and/or price to complete this counter trend move.

It is also possible that primary wave [4] needs additional work. A triangle could be tracing here. If so, this leg would appear to be (c). If a triangle, price should not exceed the 373 H.

Assuming that [4] is finished, the first order of business would be to break the 312 L. The first intermediate degree target is 279, which is where (3) = (1).

The minimum primary objective is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 278.125. [5] = [1] - [3] at 219.50.

Crude Update

The crude market pretty well followed my expectations for the week, although I thought that price would reach a little higher.

It appears that minuette (b) has finished at the 69.83 L, though not a certainty. We have a nice clean 5 wave structure up from that level, which I have labeled as sub-minuette i.

Once we have completed 5 sub-minuette degree waves up, we should finish (c), thus completing minute [b]. Minute [c] down should follow.

Notice how price was rejected at the corrective base channel.

Also notice the RSI divergence at the top of the micro [5]th. Exactly what should be expected with a 5th wave.

It appears that we have finished ii down and have started iii up in earnest. If [2] has completed, which is unclear at this point, we should enter the meat of (c)'s advance.

Near term, I expect price to follow through to the upside. We should see the completion of [b] later in the week.

(w) = (y) at 80.38. the minimum objective is the 61.8% of (w) at 75.25.

I'm anxious to see if they break price out to a new recovery (and yearly) high. This is at 76.56.

Bank Failures

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090829/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown101_bank_failures

Crude Again- BINGO

Very nice reversal for crude off the morning lows. Volume was better than yesterday, but nothing to write home about. Range was $3.12.

There are several ways to label the structure down to the 69.83 L. More than likely it was a flat-x-zigzag, but it makes no difference. The important point is that I believe that minuette (b) has completed.

We are impulsing up, which is exactly what should be happening. My interpretation is that we are tracing a double zigzag for minute [b] wave. This should be the last (c) leg that will finish [b].

If this assessment is correct, we will see higher price, and possibly yearly highs. AB=CD at 77.85. Should we reach that level, we would attain new recovery rally highs.

Notice the nice hit of the 261.8% projection. We also sniffed the lower boundary of the daily channel.

RSI had a monster positive divergence at the 69.83 L.

It appears that we have finished micro [1] - [3] and are currently working on [4]. There is a chance that the degree's should be ratcheted up by one. I have the retracement ratios on the chart.

We should finish up [5] in quick order tomorrow that will complete sub-minuette i.

My channel assumes that [4] has made its low. There is a good chance it has not. I will adjust the channel if needed.

The REAL Scam continues- Goldman

Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin has subpoenaed Goldman Sachs for more information about its "trading huddles"--the internal meetings in which analysts produce near-term trading ideas that are given to the firm's proprietary traders and a select group of clients but not disseminated broadly.

Galvin's concern? This is selective dissemination that benefits Goldman and its biggest clients and screws everyone else.

Our guest Susanne Craig broke the Goldman story for the Wall Street Journal that led to Galvin's investigation. She thinks Goldman's "huddle" practice raises several important questions, such as whether the select group of clients are being "tipped" about future ratings changes.

If that is in fact what is happening--explicitly or implicitly--the practice should be investigated. But as a former Wall Street analyst, I think there is a much more important lesson here:

* It will never be a level playing field.
* The best clients of firms like Goldman Sachs will always get better information from to the firm's traders and analysts than small investors. Big investors will always get better access to companies than small investors. Big investors will always be able to afford better research, better analysis, and better trading systems than small investors. (Just one example: The facial expression of a CEO when asked a tough question is often more revealing than a hundred-page SEC filing).
* By implying that the playing field should or can be level, regulators encourage small investors to think that it usually is. This is crazy. The sooner small investors learn that the better.

Follow up on Article I posted -FDIC on Fumes

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090826/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fdic_shrinking_fund