No daytime updates today

Will be busy today so no intra day updates. Have a feeling we will test that 1054 area this week- Becareful of a turn around tuesday- watch the volume

Crude Update

After an initial morning rally, the crude pits turned bearish and there was nice downside price action. Range was a healthy $3.61 on expanding volume.
I wanted to point a couple of things out on the daily front month.
We have broken the up trend line on RSI. If you scan back across the chart, you will notice that in the previous cases where this has occurred, nice healthy corrections followed.
Notice as well, the negative divergence put in on the RSI. Is this telling us that minor C is finished? While certainly possible, I don't believe that's the case.
It appears to me that we would be missing an additional leg higher.
The intraday continuous contract shows the two ways I'm currently viewing structure.
So far, this corrective has the look and feel of a 4th wave. I have two sets of retracement fibs on the chart. The set on the left is measured from the beginning of (i) or [i], while the set on the right is from the wave (ii) or [ii] low.
Notice that the push higher this morning was turned back at the base corrective channel.
As I stated in the weekend update, we really need to see how this retrace plays out to give us a better handle on structure. I will assume a [iv] wave until proven otherwise.
We do have a divergence with today's lows, suggesting that perhaps the move off the 81.58 H needs some retrace.
Did you notice the move in the dollar today? Kind of hard to ignore in my opinion. Watch the 76.85 level. We are also at the 50% level on RSI. Price has been turned back the prior six times RSI has reached this level. Does it finally get through?

SO what now

The market just took back all the gains it made since the beginning of the earnings season. I am not ready to call it yet till be get those reaction numbers touched. Bingo on that crude!!!!

Markets

Ok S&P CRACKED A LITTLE HERE- As said short from last 1083 but man That was some big push down from today's high.
watch this 1067 area if it can't hold next up 1054 (Only logical)

Crude Update

The crude market finished the week with another positive gain.

We finished something at the 81.99 H. I believe it was a minuette wave (v), which would complete a minute degree wave.
I'm entertaining the idea that it just may be a [iii] wave. The retracement will give us a better idea.
The 38.2% retracement level is 77.17, while the 50% sits at 75.68.
The triangle target is 83.99. The continuous contract numbers can change when they put on a new front month, which is why this number is slightly different.
Bottom line - the retracement process does not appear complete to me. Should price trade through the 81.99 H, then it will be obvious that (v) has not finished.

Dollar Update

Fresh new lows for the bucky this past week - not unexpected.
My interpretation remains the same. Minuette wave (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C). We inch closer and closer to an important bottom.
Price found support at the 78.6% retracement of the primary [A] leg off the 71.05 L. We are very near the minimum downside objective of 74.79, which is where 5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3.
Notice that RSI supported on its rising trend line, again giving positive divergence. Pay attention to the 50% level (upper trend line) to see whether it can finally break through.
I'm not sure this would signal an end to the downtrend, however, I do believe it would be meaningful.
Bottom line - As mentioned last week, this trend is very mature. It could end at anytime. Any upside price action should be viewed with suspicion, until an impulse has taken place with a channel break.

Markets

It would be so nice indeed if the markets did something. We are in no man's land with light volume no conviction and the conflicting reports of the news. We are technically moving lateral for a time now with alot of head fakes both ways but when you study things, the past month or so has seen the market grind up and down due to opposing forces from both the bullish side and the bearish side of the ledger. The bulls can talk quite a bit about what's being reported from our Government. Most of the economic news is favorable these days. It tells us the worst of things has passed on by. Has it? I am not so sure but that's their suggestion. The market is buying it for now. The bulls can also claim that earnings are coming in better than expected. Are they really? Well, I am not so sure since many, not all, but many of the better reports are due to cost cutting.How do we know? Earnings are beating in many cases by a huge amount yet revenues are only in line or in many cases, even a drop below. Cutting costs by cutting jobs and or job hours. Not exactly a pillar of health but hey, for now the market doesn't care and that's all we care about when playing this silly game. So earnings and economic news are clearly on the side of the bulls. On the side of the bears we have overbought daily charts in conjunction with massive consecutive negative divergences on the those same charts. A very ugly combination. We also have massive price resistance just above on those trend lines you'll see in the charts in this report. You also have a high number of stocks on a high pole that need to pull back. Their moves very mature meaning any upside from here is labored at best. It can occur but won't be easy by an means. Stocks on high poles with negative divergences and overbought can be a real headache for the bulls thus expecting much upside near term isn't wise. So the bulls have some advantages and you can see the bears do as well. It all equates to a market that has moved laterally for the last month plus and we all know lateral market are absolutely no fun.

We are doing NOTHING here but opening and closing the markets I hope we get some resolution out of this annoying range bound market soon or it will put me to sleep for 10 years :) Thank goodness for Oil!

MARKETJEDI