You know life is full of bull crappers, people with a lot air in their head and just talk like they know a lot. I am no psychologist but I believe people who are like that are insecure so they try and portray themselves as knowledgeable or important.
Humility is a great sign of a wise man because a wise man / woman will listen to anyone because he knows knowledge is infinite and therefore we can learn from anyone. Arrogance is a sign of a idiot, so listen and do less talking, more observation, less trying to be a boss and more of a sponge trying to absorb all nature and the universe has to off us.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, January 4, 2010
Divergences
Some negative divergences here but I would not weigh heavy on that since as said before the first few days of a quarter are usually heavily skewed on the buy side because of fund activity.
I am initiating a small short here on BAC in the mid $15 area. I think this one will see $11 in short order. Holding this one, no a quick trade.
I am initiating a small short here on BAC in the mid $15 area. I think this one will see $11 in short order. Holding this one, no a quick trade.
Early strength
Early strength to ring in the first trading day of the year. Oil is screaming higher and I continue to believe Oil will be bullish for years to come, just think about it we are in a massive slow down and Oil has been in a bullish consolidation though off it parabolic year of 2008.
Let's see what the first week brings alot of people like to put their hats on the first week performance as a barometer of what the year will bring. I don't have those views as I believe the first days of any quarter is usually heavy loaded because of funds putting money to work.
Let's see what the first week brings alot of people like to put their hats on the first week performance as a barometer of what the year will bring. I don't have those views as I believe the first days of any quarter is usually heavy loaded because of funds putting money to work.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
I am back
I am back but just for a couple of days as I have to go to the Big apple later this week for about 10 days. I had a very enjoyable holidays with family and friends visiting from out of town but now I am dead tired. On top of that I know my 10 days in New York will add to my fatigue so I might need a holiday after that:). I will try to post during my travels but it will be difficult so don't expect anything much.
So for New Years gift my home builder gave me a gift that I didn't want! Another $30k drop in the base price of my home model :) well not unexpected but the amount was! I wonder how many people will begin to think they have no equity and it is better just to walk away. I am being very serious here, that might be the best move though some people might bash those who do but as I always say, would you do a 10k repair on your car if it is only worth 2k? At the beginning of last year I spoke about the main focus for years to come would be the lost of net worth for most americans as I didn't see an end to the weakness in the housing market or a meaningful reversal in the equity markets and I continue to see more of the same.
What will 2010 bring?? Hopefully some volume so we can get a nice move to play like in 2008 but mostly my instincts tell me that some time between now and May we will find a meaningful top in this rebound and head south again. As I said long ago I didn't believe we would test that March low again for 2009 and I think that goes for 2010. I believe 2011 will be the time wave correction that will send us much lower than the March 2009 lows but we will see soon enough.
Remember we could end up consolidating for a long time just like what happened in the last 4 months of 2009, low volume and just range bound, this time range bound could last for months to years and ultimately kill the mind set of buy and hold completely and dry up investors appetite for equities and lead to the last leg of a secular bear market. At that point I believe that will be the buy of the ages.
Lets see how the January effect plays out but I would not place any bets on that again! just remember what happened last year. Folks all I have to say is that I play whatever I see in front of me but I assure you we wont be higher 5 years from now so be very careful investing in equities for the long haul.
Marketjedi
So for New Years gift my home builder gave me a gift that I didn't want! Another $30k drop in the base price of my home model :) well not unexpected but the amount was! I wonder how many people will begin to think they have no equity and it is better just to walk away. I am being very serious here, that might be the best move though some people might bash those who do but as I always say, would you do a 10k repair on your car if it is only worth 2k? At the beginning of last year I spoke about the main focus for years to come would be the lost of net worth for most americans as I didn't see an end to the weakness in the housing market or a meaningful reversal in the equity markets and I continue to see more of the same.
What will 2010 bring?? Hopefully some volume so we can get a nice move to play like in 2008 but mostly my instincts tell me that some time between now and May we will find a meaningful top in this rebound and head south again. As I said long ago I didn't believe we would test that March low again for 2009 and I think that goes for 2010. I believe 2011 will be the time wave correction that will send us much lower than the March 2009 lows but we will see soon enough.
Remember we could end up consolidating for a long time just like what happened in the last 4 months of 2009, low volume and just range bound, this time range bound could last for months to years and ultimately kill the mind set of buy and hold completely and dry up investors appetite for equities and lead to the last leg of a secular bear market. At that point I believe that will be the buy of the ages.
Lets see how the January effect plays out but I would not place any bets on that again! just remember what happened last year. Folks all I have to say is that I play whatever I see in front of me but I assure you we wont be higher 5 years from now so be very careful investing in equities for the long haul.
Marketjedi
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Holidays
Off on my holidays till next monday. Hope everyone has a healthy and prosperous New Year.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Monday, December 28, 2009
Gold
The technical picture for gold has brightened considerably over the past week, despite the price having continued to drop and the apparent failure of an uptrend. The reasons for this are to be found in the price action of gold itself and in what has been going on elsewhere at the same time.
On the 1-year chart we can see how the current downtrend continued to take the price lower early in the week before it bounced back late in the week as the market wound down for the Christmas holiday. Failure of the parabolic uptrend channel was followed by a breach of the parallel uptrend channel, as we had expected, however, applying our 3% rule we see that gold did not drop below our general stop for the sector at $1067 before it bounced above an important support level. With gold just above this support and now oversold on its MACD and various other shorter-term indicators, and still in the vicinity of its rising 50-day moving average, this is a good place for it to turn up. With respect to the trendline failure we should note that it is a favorite trick of Big Money to execute trendline failures in order to run people out of their positions before prices reverse sharply in the other direction.
On the 1-year chart we can see how the current downtrend continued to take the price lower early in the week before it bounced back late in the week as the market wound down for the Christmas holiday. Failure of the parabolic uptrend channel was followed by a breach of the parallel uptrend channel, as we had expected, however, applying our 3% rule we see that gold did not drop below our general stop for the sector at $1067 before it bounced above an important support level. With gold just above this support and now oversold on its MACD and various other shorter-term indicators, and still in the vicinity of its rising 50-day moving average, this is a good place for it to turn up. With respect to the trendline failure we should note that it is a favorite trick of Big Money to execute trendline failures in order to run people out of their positions before prices reverse sharply in the other direction.
Out of town-PALM
Will be out of town for the next couple of days. Just want to leave you with a short I believe will work for the new year. PALM
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