Got to hold 1130 as said before- Critical level that must be held.
Below we have 1110 not that we will hit that today but 1130 should provide a puase or some support
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
What I am seeing
Ok after taking a day of rest to recover from my trip I looked at some charts last night.
Even with the Bank of America this morning I still think we can go to that 1178 are, which was an area I spelled out awhile back. Currently 1134 must hold and most importantly 1130 or we will more than likely test those averages down by 1108/1110 area.
We will see soon enough but it is very interesting trading here but also mish match as we are up one day and down the next and volume is still light.
Lets see what develops here.
Even with the Bank of America this morning I still think we can go to that 1178 are, which was an area I spelled out awhile back. Currently 1134 must hold and most importantly 1130 or we will more than likely test those averages down by 1108/1110 area.
We will see soon enough but it is very interesting trading here but also mish match as we are up one day and down the next and volume is still light.
Lets see what develops here.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Thoughts
Since I am back I think it is time for a review of the broader market indices and possible implications for traders and investors: As usual my analysis may prove controversial, but I tend to make big picture calls at critical junctures. This analysis is more bearish and I realize, that many have gone from the bearish camp. I simply look at all the evidence, and instead of burying my head in the sand, I take it all in and plan accordingly. Being a perma-bull or perma-bear is a quick way to under-perform the markets. I try to be nimble and trade/invest accordingly. The next few weeks/months are likely to be volatile,since we have been trading in a narrow range for a couple of months now. I don't believe the market has peaked yet for this phase but I do think we are more likely in the 8-9th inning of the upside here.
It appears we have the qualifications to have a potential top in since the March 2009 lows. This is due to the rebound of the Dow to above my 10500 target I spoke about in early 2009. We have had a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. In addition, we have had about a 61% time period duration with an 11 month rally which followed a 17 odd month decline. Based on all my work: This means we have technically fulfilled intermediate objectives for a top.
The caveat in my analysis, is the equity markets could still work their way higher. Just because we have met certain typical patterns in Time and Price projections, elliott wave patterns and the like, doesn't mean we have peaked for sure. The markets could continue in a higher % retracement of the 17 month decline and the indices work their way higher. What I am pointing out today is that the requirements for a top have been met, and we need to be on guard.
One important thing I also watch is the bullish sentiment of investors, which is presently running at extreme highs.We have the VIX running at extreme lows and the last time we had this many bulls in surveys vs bears was July 2007 and we all knew what happened then.
The markets are at a critical juncture here and we can move either way but I am being extremely cautious. It does not mean you can't play equities on the long side but a 5 way Elliott wave structure is a very compelling case for a change in direction.
It appears we have the qualifications to have a potential top in since the March 2009 lows. This is due to the rebound of the Dow to above my 10500 target I spoke about in early 2009. We have had a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. In addition, we have had about a 61% time period duration with an 11 month rally which followed a 17 odd month decline. Based on all my work: This means we have technically fulfilled intermediate objectives for a top.
The caveat in my analysis, is the equity markets could still work their way higher. Just because we have met certain typical patterns in Time and Price projections, elliott wave patterns and the like, doesn't mean we have peaked for sure. The markets could continue in a higher % retracement of the 17 month decline and the indices work their way higher. What I am pointing out today is that the requirements for a top have been met, and we need to be on guard.
One important thing I also watch is the bullish sentiment of investors, which is presently running at extreme highs.We have the VIX running at extreme lows and the last time we had this many bulls in surveys vs bears was July 2007 and we all knew what happened then.
The markets are at a critical juncture here and we can move either way but I am being extremely cautious. It does not mean you can't play equities on the long side but a 5 way Elliott wave structure is a very compelling case for a change in direction.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Back
Back from my trip but extremely tired. I didn't even have time to update the blog with my thoughts last week as I was actually away from the markets itself. I guess I will see what happens tomorrow and get a feel of whats going on now.
I would like to also say the Haitian earthquake was truly sad and I am glad that the world is still kind in its heart to help those who are in need. It could have happened anywhere but Haiti being one of the poorest countries in the World will have an extremely hard time recovering if they ever do from this natural disaster. Nature is powerful more than any nation or man and that's why we should respect the earth and universe we live in.
On a note on the market I saw we lost 100 points on Friday but I don't believe this is anything in the way of a turn around to the downside yet. Watch the 1114 number on the S&P as there is some support there.
I would like to also say the Haitian earthquake was truly sad and I am glad that the world is still kind in its heart to help those who are in need. It could have happened anywhere but Haiti being one of the poorest countries in the World will have an extremely hard time recovering if they ever do from this natural disaster. Nature is powerful more than any nation or man and that's why we should respect the earth and universe we live in.
On a note on the market I saw we lost 100 points on Friday but I don't believe this is anything in the way of a turn around to the downside yet. Watch the 1114 number on the S&P as there is some support there.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Boring
One thing to note the market is still showing no signs of volatility to trade. Although a few stocks are performing the indexes themselves are doing nothing. Seem many are sitting on the sidelines again, remember Goldman said December trading was terrible volume wise.
Target
Just popping in before I travel later today. Target on this head and shoulder pattern on the S&P is 1124. Keep an eye on that number as it should be target and bounce area if bulls are not weak here. I also got a minor reflect number @ 1127.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Out
Heading to the Big Apple tomorrow so will be busy today for my trip. I will not have much time to post next week but I will be back on the 19th 100%. I might pop in and out.
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