Longer Cycle

While the rally from March 2009 through April 2010 has been impressive, there are big picture, huge Head & Shoulders top patterns that are warning this is simply a Bear Market rally, the eye of the storm, a temporary respite. The rally from March 2009 has not been as long time-wise, or as strong as the decline that preceded it. So far, it has retraced approximately a Fibonacci 60 percent of the 2007 to 2009 decline. It is a Bear Market rally. Because we are in a huge Grand Supercycle degree Bear Market, rallies or bounces can seem large and long. But big picture patterns suggest all the borrowing and spending, and monetary printing by the Central Planners will only produce a temporary Bear Market Bounce at great cost to the Federal Budget Deficit. Another leg lower is likely over the next several years, and the Central Planners cannot prevent it, now the true question is when.

1230 Next strong resistance

From the chart posted last week,1230 is next strong resistance on the S&P. 1230 is the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs basis the cash S&P 500. All eyes will be on that number, if we indeed make it that high, which in my opinion because we are now in a structure for it to hit

What will we do when we get there? I have NO IDEA! I think we should at least pause, but after that, a reversal is not a sure thing. We will examine it when that time arrives.

I know I'm being kinda non committal but what should I do instead? Take stabs that we are going DOWN or it's time to get SHORT over and over again and just keep being wrong the markets is not going anywhere and it will be here long after we are gone, so just take it slow and steady.

Footsie

We will be playing footsie with this VERY important 1178/1180 area- I have no guesses but to say it was my point from the March 2009 lows of a potential TOP. The fact here that we over shot a little is definitely a bullish sign but be very cautious here if you are long. The volume and divergence says a topping pattern is forming

Interesting

Resistance : Baffling to technicians

So this is the important short to medium term chart- I like most technicians noted the 1178/1180 area as potential maximum move off the March 2009 lows but we have not gotten a full rejection. The next level up on the charts is 1230 the 67% Fib retracement and at that point i would expect us to be at a final topping stage but who knows. Technicians has been waiting on a pullback for months but my ultimate top was 1178/1180 so I will watch what happens here-

Oil HIgher

Well Oil finally went higher something that is a seasonal reaction of the change over to the lighter crude oil for the summer.
One thing i find funny is the talking head telling people oh everything is ok. I did a massive supercycle chart and folks last big dive in the market is definitely a Elliott Wave 1. I am 99% sure of it and that scares me because a Wave 3 will send us a lot lower, and i do mean a lot. The thing here is to coordinate some cycle time cycles to see when this can possibly happen, my money is still on 2011-2013 time frame for a massive low in the markets. I only hope I have enough resources to buy when the end of wave three happens because it will be one for the ages. Right now we are just moving on the thought we are at some economic bottom but with no real economic boom I have no doubt you have to be a great stock picker or just play it light and wait for the downturn to short.
Right here I am doing little because the light volume has me on pause. Volume is the true reflection of the market direction and till it comes back more that average, everything here is manipulation.

Have a great, Easter, spring break and weekend.

Oil Higher

Broke through the $84.20 level overnight- this is very bullish- Get ready for higher prices at the pump.