Thursday, April 15, 2010

Bingo ???

Do I get to say bingo soon on BAC- Target I said was $20 next

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Here now or full retracement-




last chance for the NASDAQ Bears here, or at least the composite Bears! The NASDAQ Composite is approaching its 78.6% retracement of the push down from the 2007 highs. Should that level be breached, a full retracement is then expected.

VIX





the VIX closed at its lowest level in a few years yesterday. Does this mean that it can't go any lower? Of course not, but it puts us on guard for potential volatility expansion, something that this grinding action can surely use.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Longer Cycle

While the rally from March 2009 through April 2010 has been impressive, there are big picture, huge Head & Shoulders top patterns that are warning this is simply a Bear Market rally, the eye of the storm, a temporary respite. The rally from March 2009 has not been as long time-wise, or as strong as the decline that preceded it. So far, it has retraced approximately a Fibonacci 60 percent of the 2007 to 2009 decline. It is a Bear Market rally. Because we are in a huge Grand Supercycle degree Bear Market, rallies or bounces can seem large and long. But big picture patterns suggest all the borrowing and spending, and monetary printing by the Central Planners will only produce a temporary Bear Market Bounce at great cost to the Federal Budget Deficit. Another leg lower is likely over the next several years, and the Central Planners cannot prevent it, now the true question is when.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

1230 Next strong resistance

From the chart posted last week,1230 is next strong resistance on the S&P. 1230 is the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs basis the cash S&P 500. All eyes will be on that number, if we indeed make it that high, which in my opinion because we are now in a structure for it to hit

What will we do when we get there? I have NO IDEA! I think we should at least pause, but after that, a reversal is not a sure thing. We will examine it when that time arrives.

I know I'm being kinda non committal but what should I do instead? Take stabs that we are going DOWN or it's time to get SHORT over and over again and just keep being wrong the markets is not going anywhere and it will be here long after we are gone, so just take it slow and steady.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Footsie

We will be playing footsie with this VERY important 1178/1180 area- I have no guesses but to say it was my point from the March 2009 lows of a potential TOP. The fact here that we over shot a little is definitely a bullish sign but be very cautious here if you are long. The volume and divergence says a topping pattern is forming

Interesting