Thursday, April 15, 2010
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Here now or full retracement-
VIX
Monday, April 12, 2010
Longer Cycle
While the rally from March 2009 through April 2010 has been impressive, there are big picture, huge Head & Shoulders top patterns that are warning this is simply a Bear Market rally, the eye of the storm, a temporary respite. The rally from March 2009 has not been as long time-wise, or as strong as the decline that preceded it. So far, it has retraced approximately a Fibonacci 60 percent of the 2007 to 2009 decline. It is a Bear Market rally. Because we are in a huge Grand Supercycle degree Bear Market, rallies or bounces can seem large and long. But big picture patterns suggest all the borrowing and spending, and monetary printing by the Central Planners will only produce a temporary Bear Market Bounce at great cost to the Federal Budget Deficit. Another leg lower is likely over the next several years, and the Central Planners cannot prevent it, now the true question is when.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
1230 Next strong resistance
From the chart posted last week,1230 is next strong resistance on the S&P. 1230 is the 62% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs basis the cash S&P 500. All eyes will be on that number, if we indeed make it that high, which in my opinion because we are now in a structure for it to hit
What will we do when we get there? I have NO IDEA! I think we should at least pause, but after that, a reversal is not a sure thing. We will examine it when that time arrives.
I know I'm being kinda non committal but what should I do instead? Take stabs that we are going DOWN or it's time to get SHORT over and over again and just keep being wrong the markets is not going anywhere and it will be here long after we are gone, so just take it slow and steady.
What will we do when we get there? I have NO IDEA! I think we should at least pause, but after that, a reversal is not a sure thing. We will examine it when that time arrives.
I know I'm being kinda non committal but what should I do instead? Take stabs that we are going DOWN or it's time to get SHORT over and over again and just keep being wrong the markets is not going anywhere and it will be here long after we are gone, so just take it slow and steady.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Footsie
We will be playing footsie with this VERY important 1178/1180 area- I have no guesses but to say it was my point from the March 2009 lows of a potential TOP. The fact here that we over shot a little is definitely a bullish sign but be very cautious here if you are long. The volume and divergence says a topping pattern is forming
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