Goldman's Investment Strategy Group has just circulated the most bearish 2011 outlook presentation, detailing why the US economy in 2011 will likely stall and post negative growth. As the chart below demonstrates, the current case, where ongoing QE will likely persist through 2011 and even into 2012, and thus make any discussion of raising rates irrelevant (likely forever, as the Fed will not be able to absorb all the excess slack before it is forcefully removed after 2-3 sequential dollar devaluations) lead Goldman to a GDP expectation of well under half of the Fed's greenshooty outlook of 3%.
Here is how Goldman describes the its across the board outlook revision:
* Lower growth: We expect GDP to grow 1.5-2.5% in 2011 (down from 2.5-3.0%). Our view is that the growth baton will be passed successfully from inventories and government spending to consumption and investment so growth should remain positive over the next 12-18 months.
* Higher uncertainty: Our forecast range for GDP is wider (1% instead of 0.5%) at 1.5-2.5%
* Lower rates: We are lowering our long-term rates forecast to 3.0-3.75% by end 2011 (from 3.75-4.25%).
And according to the "Bad Case" which the Fed is about to enact, Goldman sees a fundamental S&P valuation range of 725-800 based on 10-11x multiples
GS is now obviously setting up for a 750 S&P FOR 2011. I have spoken about this before that 2011 is the next real test for the market.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Why having broken systems lead to loss of #1
We won't be the alpha dog in the western hemisphere forever.
Even if the U.S. hadn't crashed into a financial crisis, there are demographic, material, and political forces that have been spreading power around the Americas for decades.
Brazil is first among the BRICs -- four economies that are supposed to overtake the six largest Western economies by 2032.
Mexico is first among the MAVINS (Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa) -- six economies we expect to blow away expectations and become leading powers in their regions relatively soon.
Canada and Venezuela are oil powers of the distant future.
Peru and Chile are sitting on a fortune of metals and minerals.
All these countries are cranking up, while America faces plenty of fiscal and demographic problems at home.
Here are Signs the US Is Losing Its Influence In Its Own Backyard:
Our most powerful regional ally--Brazil--refuses to follow our orders on Iran
Hillary Clinton went to Brazil to beg support for sanctions against Iran and came away empty handed. Now the UN is counting on Brazil, which is friendly with America and Iran, to lead nuclear diplomacy.
The World's Richest Man is now a Mexican, not an American.
For the first time in 16 years, the World's Richest Man is not an American. Carlos Slim, worth $54 billion, is the first Latin American to hold that title and one of many emerging market billionaires to eclipse the U.S.
Three years after a US financial crisis, Latin America is again growing rapidly. The U.S.? Not so much...
Compare this to what happened during the Great Depression. Latin America was devastated when US investment dried up and the export market soured in the 30s. A League of Nations report said Chile, Peru, and Bolivia suffered the world's worst depression.
Today is quite different. Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico have led a buoyant recovery from the global recession, according to Reuters. The regional economy is expected by the UN to grow 4.3 percent in 2010. If the American consumer remains weak, Latin American exports will move elsewhere.
Chile produces 300% more copper than America--the former world leader in copper production
America used to lead the world in copper production. We produced 49% of the world's copper in 1929, according to this article from the archives. Today we produced 1.2 million tonnes yearly, compared to 5.4 million tonnes in Chile.
Brazil now produces over four times as much iron ore as the U.S.. We used to lead that industry, too.
America once led the world in iron mining. In 1892 we discovered the world's largest mine at the Great Lakes Mesabi Range. It was a wellspring for America's industrial might and the foundation of the rust belt.
Now we claim reserves at 2,100 mt. Seven countries claim higher reserves, including Brazil at 8,900 mt. We produce only 54 mt yearly, while Brazil produces 250 mt.
Canada and Venezuela will pass the US in oil production in the next decade
America produces around 9 million billion barrels of oil a day. Venezuela and Canada each produce around 3 million. But America's reserves are 21 billion barrels and may last less than a decade. Our oil-rich neighbors claim 99 billion bbl and 178 billion bbl, respectively, and will keep producing oil into the distant future.
Now Brazil exports over twice beef as much as we do
America used to lead the world in beef production. Although we still do, America exports only 800,000 mt of beef per year. Brazil exports 2,200,000 mt. Here's some ironic excerpts from a 1911 NYT article: "American-Canadian syndicate to have world's largest beef plant in Brazil... The chilled beef industry has never been tried before in Brazil and has only recently gotten under way in Argentina."
Brazil is now a critical partner for Russia, India, and China
The acronym coined by Goldman Sachs to describe the four key emerging powers has taken on a life of its own. Brazil, Russia, India, and China have held several summits and even discussed making a supranational currency -- that would pull the rug out from the US dollar.
What's important here is that global emerging powers have good relations and are inclined to work together. For instance, China just signed major contracts to build factories and high-speed rail in Brazil.
Brazil, Canada, and Mexico all invest a greater share of GDP in clean energy
A Pew survey found that Brazil invests 0.37% of its economy in clean energy. Canada invests 0.25% and Mexico invests 0.14%. America is eleventh in the world at 0.13%.
Hugo Chavez is still in power
The CIA has a notorious history of interventions in Latin America, supposedly targeting Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán, Fidel Castro, Manuel Noriega, Rios Montt, Che Guevara, and many others. But they haven't stopped Hugo Chavez from railing against the United States for years. Clearly America has adopted a more passive regional strategy.
Even if the U.S. hadn't crashed into a financial crisis, there are demographic, material, and political forces that have been spreading power around the Americas for decades.
Brazil is first among the BRICs -- four economies that are supposed to overtake the six largest Western economies by 2032.
Mexico is first among the MAVINS (Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa) -- six economies we expect to blow away expectations and become leading powers in their regions relatively soon.
Canada and Venezuela are oil powers of the distant future.
Peru and Chile are sitting on a fortune of metals and minerals.
All these countries are cranking up, while America faces plenty of fiscal and demographic problems at home.
Here are Signs the US Is Losing Its Influence In Its Own Backyard:
Our most powerful regional ally--Brazil--refuses to follow our orders on Iran
Hillary Clinton went to Brazil to beg support for sanctions against Iran and came away empty handed. Now the UN is counting on Brazil, which is friendly with America and Iran, to lead nuclear diplomacy.
The World's Richest Man is now a Mexican, not an American.
For the first time in 16 years, the World's Richest Man is not an American. Carlos Slim, worth $54 billion, is the first Latin American to hold that title and one of many emerging market billionaires to eclipse the U.S.
Three years after a US financial crisis, Latin America is again growing rapidly. The U.S.? Not so much...
Compare this to what happened during the Great Depression. Latin America was devastated when US investment dried up and the export market soured in the 30s. A League of Nations report said Chile, Peru, and Bolivia suffered the world's worst depression.
Today is quite different. Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico have led a buoyant recovery from the global recession, according to Reuters. The regional economy is expected by the UN to grow 4.3 percent in 2010. If the American consumer remains weak, Latin American exports will move elsewhere.
Chile produces 300% more copper than America--the former world leader in copper production
America used to lead the world in copper production. We produced 49% of the world's copper in 1929, according to this article from the archives. Today we produced 1.2 million tonnes yearly, compared to 5.4 million tonnes in Chile.
Brazil now produces over four times as much iron ore as the U.S.. We used to lead that industry, too.
America once led the world in iron mining. In 1892 we discovered the world's largest mine at the Great Lakes Mesabi Range. It was a wellspring for America's industrial might and the foundation of the rust belt.
Now we claim reserves at 2,100 mt. Seven countries claim higher reserves, including Brazil at 8,900 mt. We produce only 54 mt yearly, while Brazil produces 250 mt.
Canada and Venezuela will pass the US in oil production in the next decade
America produces around 9 million billion barrels of oil a day. Venezuela and Canada each produce around 3 million. But America's reserves are 21 billion barrels and may last less than a decade. Our oil-rich neighbors claim 99 billion bbl and 178 billion bbl, respectively, and will keep producing oil into the distant future.
Now Brazil exports over twice beef as much as we do
America used to lead the world in beef production. Although we still do, America exports only 800,000 mt of beef per year. Brazil exports 2,200,000 mt. Here's some ironic excerpts from a 1911 NYT article: "American-Canadian syndicate to have world's largest beef plant in Brazil... The chilled beef industry has never been tried before in Brazil and has only recently gotten under way in Argentina."
Brazil is now a critical partner for Russia, India, and China
The acronym coined by Goldman Sachs to describe the four key emerging powers has taken on a life of its own. Brazil, Russia, India, and China have held several summits and even discussed making a supranational currency -- that would pull the rug out from the US dollar.
What's important here is that global emerging powers have good relations and are inclined to work together. For instance, China just signed major contracts to build factories and high-speed rail in Brazil.
Brazil, Canada, and Mexico all invest a greater share of GDP in clean energy
A Pew survey found that Brazil invests 0.37% of its economy in clean energy. Canada invests 0.25% and Mexico invests 0.14%. America is eleventh in the world at 0.13%.
Hugo Chavez is still in power
The CIA has a notorious history of interventions in Latin America, supposedly targeting Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán, Fidel Castro, Manuel Noriega, Rios Montt, Che Guevara, and many others. But they haven't stopped Hugo Chavez from railing against the United States for years. Clearly America has adopted a more passive regional strategy.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Predict
10 years from now we will no longer be using desktop computers not even at work. These smartphones plus ipad like devices will be the new norm. Already in Germany many schools are buying ipads instead of macbooks for their students. That is something we should think about too, why is it that the Germany school system gives every student a macbook or ipad and our students get zero, no wonder the Germans are way ahead of the US in engineering and the high schools are leading in math, english and science.
Our education system is broken much like our financial system but hey it is the American way :) just spend BUT not on the right thing. Teachers barely getting paid and we wonder why the education system is on the decline. Oh well what else is new?
Our education system is broken much like our financial system but hey it is the American way :) just spend BUT not on the right thing. Teachers barely getting paid and we wonder why the education system is on the decline. Oh well what else is new?
Interesting read
Fixed income desks are going to be subject to severe layoffs, according to a highly placed Wall Street insider with information about the plans of his firm and the plans of rivals.
"It's going to be a blood bath. Volume is down for everything except Treasuries and Munis. These guys aren't making money and soon they'll be out of their jobs," he said.
He is sitting in Grand Central's Oyster bar. It's an annual ritual for him: welcoming in September with a frenzy of shell fish and wine.
Typically he invites along a few friends and treats them to a discourse on the state of Wall Street.
"It's a one-two blow for fixed income. The derivatives are being commoditized and put on exchanges. Swoosh. Now you don't need half the people you employ to trade and track those. And volume on corporates and agency paper is way down."
The numbers from SIFMA bear him out. Year to date, the average daily trading volume in US corporate debt is down 2% compared to last year.
Trading in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt is down 7%. Trading in mortgage-backed securities sponsored by Fannie and Freddie is down 13%. And the year to date numbers only tell part of the story. And the part it leaves out is how thin trading became over the summer.
Trading in corporate debt started the year pretty robustly, with $19.7 billion of bonds trading hands in January. But in June, volume dropped down to $14.6 billion and kept dropping right through the summer. The year before, the average daily volume for June was 19.3, so this decline cannot be attributed to merely a summer slowdown.
"We're easily going to cut a quarter to a half of our traders and back office in fixed income. Everyone else is going to do it too," he says.
"It's going to be a blood bath. Volume is down for everything except Treasuries and Munis. These guys aren't making money and soon they'll be out of their jobs," he said.
He is sitting in Grand Central's Oyster bar. It's an annual ritual for him: welcoming in September with a frenzy of shell fish and wine.
Typically he invites along a few friends and treats them to a discourse on the state of Wall Street.
"It's a one-two blow for fixed income. The derivatives are being commoditized and put on exchanges. Swoosh. Now you don't need half the people you employ to trade and track those. And volume on corporates and agency paper is way down."
The numbers from SIFMA bear him out. Year to date, the average daily trading volume in US corporate debt is down 2% compared to last year.
Trading in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt is down 7%. Trading in mortgage-backed securities sponsored by Fannie and Freddie is down 13%. And the year to date numbers only tell part of the story. And the part it leaves out is how thin trading became over the summer.
Trading in corporate debt started the year pretty robustly, with $19.7 billion of bonds trading hands in January. But in June, volume dropped down to $14.6 billion and kept dropping right through the summer. The year before, the average daily volume for June was 19.3, so this decline cannot be attributed to merely a summer slowdown.
"We're easily going to cut a quarter to a half of our traders and back office in fixed income. Everyone else is going to do it too," he says.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Silver
Wow Silver really busted a move higher- Two years ago I was talking about Silver reaching new highs on the back of Gold mainly because most who invest in precious metals do so through gold and Silver would be the lagging commodity. 30 year highs!
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
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