No Action

We are in a period of consolidation here. Yesterday was brutal to watch as we were in a tight range for the whole day. The S&P traded within a 2 point range for two hours, crazy. On a different note I do see some of the Nasdaq leaders show relative weakness, for example GOOG and AAPL and this makes me cautious here especially with the low volume. Stay light here this the market tips its hands or play long term time frames, it is just not worth it.

No action

So I am around these computer screens all day and ZERO action. Just one of those days, where the volume is just not there. The S&P IN A 3 POINT RANGE SINCE 10:30.

Correction

Not FED metting- FED minutes from the last meeting- Anyways we are lifeless here in the markets

FED

Fed meeting today- I have been sick with my allergies for the last 4 days so I am not 100%, not even 75% :) so posts will be limited this week till I get back my health.
Today is a non trading day as it is FED meeting day and after yesterday's extreme low volume I expect today to be worse.

Prediction- Oh yes!!

Now I have been on the fence a lot these days on the markets and some might question why and what am I thinking. Well here it goes(short version :)).
Well I think the market is trying to suck in the last of the mom and pops accounts before it takes a turn down. Right now if you look at the volume trading it shows very little participation on the part of the retail investors. What I think will happen to the market is the exact same thing that happened to investors in the real lestate hype. The big boys are much smarter and they know if they all head for the doors at once they will all get burnt, so what are they doing? waiting on hand and knees for the average guy to get in so they can leave them with the bag. My notion is that the big boys didn't even want the market this high, they thought the small time investors would have got in but they have not so they will push it up (melt up) till they get someone in the market to sell the baggage to.
Now I believe since the volume is still low, the market will therefore go higher, it sounds crazy but this is my analysis here, they got to get it higher so people can give up and say hey it is ok to get back in. Now what level does this happen, is that magic answer. I have done some work and I have a number in mind and I will say it here though it might prove the death of me :), but this site is my option and not to be used for investing, so who cares :). My magic number is 1425 on the S&P. I think that will be the first real test and beyond that maybe we need to get to new all time highs somewhere around 1650 but that would be really bad for the retail investor because the fall will be worse, so for me I am hoping for just 1425.
In the meantime we look like we can get about 80 -90 points more on the S&P so I would be think about what I will be shorting the higher we go and what I want sold if I am holding.

Time Projection

Remember I have been noting I have a time projection of Highs in the market being in April or June.

Here we go

Here we go 1329 on a range expansion from the two last days consolidation. Bracket the first hour and see if we get more going.