Ok Folks I think we will have some more news to drop the brokers and banks and I am letting you in on two plays I might initiate tomorrow.
Firstly WM (Washington Mutual) might be a nail in the coffin from the Bear Sterns fail out. They were targeted to be taken over by Bear Stern but since there is no more Bear Sterns where does that leave WM. Wamu as it is called on the street might be a tough sale as the mortgage situation seem to be getting worst. WM might see $2 if not bought out. I will be shorting lots everyday for the next week or so to build a position SHORT. I will set my stops at $11.75, so that's a $2.5 position from here.
Second play is IMB(Indy Mac) which I think will go under. It is undercapitalized and is one of the worst banks currently trading on the exchange. Currently this stock is under $5 so it might be hard to borrow to short but I might play the $5 April puts if I can't short it.
Remember tomorrow is FED meeting and we will go in dead mode after the first 90 minutes of trading. Also remember we usually have an upward bias into and the day after FED meetings so I would be lightening up on stock if you are SHORT. Today action also wasn't bad in lieu of the news and might have some substance to base a rally.
All rallies will be short lived but no sense in being short if the market rallies a few hundred points.
Today was a EXCELLENT day for me as everything worked like a charm. Lets keep it close to the vest this week as options expiration and the FED meeting will sure push us around.
I am also looking in to some commodities short as we speak because I do believe we will get a substantial pullback in the commodities soon very soon.
Monday, March 17, 2008
NICE
People just listen up. This market has been toast for a long time and i have bee saying it, it just doesn't know it yet. I think Commodities will get cracked here too. Commodities especially gold and the grains will get killed here soon, just a matter of time.
GOOGLE - DEAD!
BIDU -DEAD!
CITIBANK- DEAD!
LEHMAN-DEAD!
FNM-DEAD!
MARKET DEAD!!!
I would love to see the most devious position play out here. Market rallies and everyone and their mother will say wow that was the bottom NOT! and get killed.
Talk to you later.
Keep on ringing the register on those shorts
GOOGLE - DEAD!
BIDU -DEAD!
CITIBANK- DEAD!
LEHMAN-DEAD!
FNM-DEAD!
MARKET DEAD!!!
I would love to see the most devious position play out here. Market rallies and everyone and their mother will say wow that was the bottom NOT! and get killed.
Talk to you later.
Keep on ringing the register on those shorts
Sunday, March 16, 2008
WEEEEEEEEE DOWN WE GO
Where should I start!!!! I will first start by saying I told you so and secondly PEOPLE need to goto JAIL over this crisis. World markets are just opening overseas and are locked limit down as the news of Bears Sterns total collapse and sell out to JP Morgan for $2 a share is sending markets downward. Imagine this stock was $159 last yr WOW. There are obviously serious problems going on at Wall Street and this will no doubt be the first of a number of collapse that will occur in coming months.
Anyone think Bear Sterns was the only firm doing highly leverage trading in the market are totally wrong. Hedge funds, mutual funds and trading institutions use these highly leverage tools to make more money on smaller capital requirements everyday. I dont know what will happen at the end of day tomorrow but I am sure some time tomorrow we will be down over 380 points on the Dow.
What I see happening in the US markets is the same exact thing that happened to Japan in the 90s of massive inflation, devalued Yen, real estate bust and increase unemployment. The most important note we should take away from the lessons of Japan's 90s financial mistakes is that it has taken almost 15 yrs to fix the problems.
I will be a very interesting week and I think this week will be a week if you are a excellent trader to make lots of MONEY. This news should gap us down limit down tomorrow morning, Fed meeting on tuesday and options expiration on Friday will make this a roller coaster week for sure.
Tonight I am going to sleep very sound knowing this week WILL be a great week for volatility and some wonderful trades.
I will try and post some trades as fast as I can but I am sure it will be a fast spaced news filled week.
Anyone think Bear Sterns was the only firm doing highly leverage trading in the market are totally wrong. Hedge funds, mutual funds and trading institutions use these highly leverage tools to make more money on smaller capital requirements everyday. I dont know what will happen at the end of day tomorrow but I am sure some time tomorrow we will be down over 380 points on the Dow.
What I see happening in the US markets is the same exact thing that happened to Japan in the 90s of massive inflation, devalued Yen, real estate bust and increase unemployment. The most important note we should take away from the lessons of Japan's 90s financial mistakes is that it has taken almost 15 yrs to fix the problems.
I will be a very interesting week and I think this week will be a week if you are a excellent trader to make lots of MONEY. This news should gap us down limit down tomorrow morning, Fed meeting on tuesday and options expiration on Friday will make this a roller coaster week for sure.
Tonight I am going to sleep very sound knowing this week WILL be a great week for volatility and some wonderful trades.
I will try and post some trades as fast as I can but I am sure it will be a fast spaced news filled week.
CONFIDENCE
Obviously we are experiencing a crisis of confidence on Wall Street in the past few weeks. The FED has been working overtime to make sure Wall Street the gears of America keep on going. Monday we will see how much was done over the weekend to amend the collapse of Bear Stern. Personally I dont think anyone in their right mind who manages money wants to be the first one to try and bet against the current crisis.
Last week there was substantial put buying in Bear Sterns, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. The puts on Bear Sterns were spot on and I think the put buyers in the other might also be spot on. No way as I said before that the mortgage meltdown just end in write downs, they should end in one of the banks going under due to cash crisis due to massive liquidation or a flat out Bankruptcy.
Today I will be looking at some charts to plan out the trading for this upcoming week, remember this week is option expiration, which usually brings in the manipulators of the high volume traded equities. This week tuesday is also the FED meeting which could pose well for high volatility with everyone guessing what the FED will ultimately say about the current market situation.
I hope we bounce hard some time in here because it would set up a sweet short opportunity as I see too many BEAR flags forming on the longer term charts.
What OIH here, it looks like it wants to break down out of the toppy pattern and I might go out on a limb here to also say the Euro looks extremely toppy and is dead at my target noted last month of 1.57. A break down from here can send us right back to the 1.38 area, which would be good for a OIL and Gold price pullback, we will see soon enough.
Last week there was substantial put buying in Bear Sterns, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. The puts on Bear Sterns were spot on and I think the put buyers in the other might also be spot on. No way as I said before that the mortgage meltdown just end in write downs, they should end in one of the banks going under due to cash crisis due to massive liquidation or a flat out Bankruptcy.
Today I will be looking at some charts to plan out the trading for this upcoming week, remember this week is option expiration, which usually brings in the manipulators of the high volume traded equities. This week tuesday is also the FED meeting which could pose well for high volatility with everyone guessing what the FED will ultimately say about the current market situation.
I hope we bounce hard some time in here because it would set up a sweet short opportunity as I see too many BEAR flags forming on the longer term charts.
What OIH here, it looks like it wants to break down out of the toppy pattern and I might go out on a limb here to also say the Euro looks extremely toppy and is dead at my target noted last month of 1.57. A break down from here can send us right back to the 1.38 area, which would be good for a OIL and Gold price pullback, we will see soon enough.
Friday, March 14, 2008
BYE BYE FINANCIALS
I now fully believe the market has enough of a catalyst to test the lows and maybe make new ones. There will be more hedge fund blowups on the horizon in my opinion. When a major investment bank (BSC) says basically that they are out of business it doesn't bode well for market confidence. Rumors are around today that UBS will announce more bad news and rumors that (CYN) City National may halt dividend and is facing a near term liquidity crisis. Stay tuned. Will the Fed come to the rescue and just buy all the bad debt?
How about the President of BSC saying things were ok with CNBC the other day? Can we trust anything in here? Do you want to be long finacials in here? He said liquidity was just fine. How come I heard European banks were not taking Bear Stearns business on Tuesday and Alan Schwartz the President didn't know.?Give me a break.
How about the President of BSC saying things were ok with CNBC the other day? Can we trust anything in here? Do you want to be long finacials in here? He said liquidity was just fine. How come I heard European banks were not taking Bear Stearns business on Tuesday and Alan Schwartz the President didn't know.?Give me a break.
BEARS STERNS IN MEGA TROUBLE
Told you guys we are in trouble. Bears Sterns news just out of the FED RESERVE lending them monies for 28 days because they are in a liquidity crisis. What does that mean! Means they are in bankruptcy on their balance sheet. Lets see what happens in a few, will update..
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