FNM

Do we get a blood bath on FNM tomorrow if earnings are terrible in the morning before the close! Who knows! all I know this stock isn't worth $15 and I will ride it down to that level.
We will see soon enough. I purchased some AAPL puts here again as this level is heavy resistance but this trade is not for the faint of heart.

OIL

Oil looks like it want new highs and towards that $125-$130 level.


Time to buy that bicycle :)

Stick to the trend trades.

Stick with trend trades till they stop working. Look at citibank today down, FNM down, SKF up. You have to stick will the trend till it doesn't work anymore.

Seem like some funds moving back into the commodities space. Oil is up huge and the agro stocks aren't doing bad.

Start of week

The market seem to be upset about the Microsoft Yahoo deal not going through. Currently the futures are down but I am goign to be aggressive and buy some strong stocks at the open for intra day play.
Keep an idea on GOOG which should benefit from the Microsoft, yahoo fall out and also look for a pull back in the financials.
I will be back after market opens

Microsoft stop takeover talks with Yahoo

Well I guess it wont be a 300% winner on those calls tomorrow. Whatever it is the play is over and I will sell my calls tomorrow. It shouldn't be a loser anyways as my entry was $2 and friday's closing price was $2.51.

I might take MELI short on this news depending on where YHOO opens. Should it open much lower I will be inclined to short MELI as a sympathy play.

Also saturday afternoon JP Morgan came out saying the financial mess is far from over, I concur with this but market pricing of stock is much different from this consensus so we will see. As usual I love Citibank short on this news and the SKF long. SKF had a great day on friday as it went $5 higher than it opening price after gapping down.

Also if the US dollar continues to rise I expect GOLD to slide further. I will be watching the agro trades this week specifically POT and AGU.

Market Thoughts

Ok another week of earnings catapult us to that magic 13000 number on the DOW. The DOW number means nothing to us traders as the more widely held indices of the S&P is more effective.
1400 is the key number here and closing above it for 3 days in a row without a retracement below it is very strong signal that this might be the new short term support. Next week should be interested with earnings season at its end and a strong up week this week, I am expecting an orderly pullback.
The trick here is how orderly of a pullback we have. I think the bulls will not give up easily and will more than likely use the stimulus package and theory of all is well in the financials market to push us higher. 1455 is the number to watch on the S&P ultimately on the upside. On the downside we have that 1396 number again.


Have a great weekend.

ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hope you followed and rolled those April $27.50 YAHOO calls into the MAY $27.50 CALLS. Called it here on the blog @$2.00.
Tonight after the close official new that Microsoft going to pay $35 a share for Yahoo.

These calls are going to be worth about 300% more but we will see on monday how they open them..
Not bad for 3 week hold!!

ONLY WINNERS HERE. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!