Hope you guys got those puts- they are ROCKING here - unbelievable!!!
Ride them here we going to rock up on those
Monday, November 10, 2008
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Hoping for rally? I dont think so
Certainly a herculean challenge for our new administration. Frankly I don't think a quick fix exists just as there is no quick fix for certain diseases. You incubate and wait, as only time itself will heal the wound or illness.
On Friday, Goldman called for the biggest rise in joblessness since WW ll. Here is a blip from their piece:
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of next year and inch even higher in early 2010, economists for Goldman Sachs wrote Friday. The cumulative trough-to-peak increase of more than 4 percentage points in the jobless rate would be the most since World War II, they said. Goldman analysts lowered growth forecasts for the next three quarters, and said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate target to 0.50% by December. "The main reason for these changes is the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production are dropping sharply," they wrote. "We do not see a resumption of anything close to trend growth before 2010."
And retail should see more pressure. Analysts are looking for a fourth consecutive monthly drop. The last time that happened was 1974. Here is what CIBC is saying:
"October will prove to be a disaster for retail sales, with only the discounters having anything to cheer about," wrote Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets. "Note that the ex-autos number will partly reflect the drop in nominal gas-station sales on falling pump prices, and will therefore exaggerate the decline in real terms."
Credit Suisse is saying this:
"The forces of tighter credit, a slackening labor market, falling household wealth and the deluge of negative news headlines are intersecting to create one of the worst backdrops for consumer demand," according to a Credit Suisse note. "As a consequence, vehicle sales collapsed in October and chain-store reports were softer than already scaled-back expectations."
I THINK ALL RALLIES SHOULD BE SHORTED HERE. I posted a new trade call on the blog so take a look. Also as of yesterday 19 banks have failed since the start of the year.
For all those people who are listening to their advisers (people who take a self test exams in 4 weeks and want to advise people on their hard work monies) be my guest. These are the same people will told people to stay with GM when it was $100, same that said stay with microsost@ $60 or stay with Enron. Time to wise up and take your finances in your own hands.
While doing my PHD one of my professors told me that the financial markets is a big scam for the smart people to take from the less knowledgeable among us, I wonder if we should call the markets some redistribution of wealth :) I think so! Just dont be on the wrong side.
MARKETJEDI
On Friday, Goldman called for the biggest rise in joblessness since WW ll. Here is a blip from their piece:
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of next year and inch even higher in early 2010, economists for Goldman Sachs wrote Friday. The cumulative trough-to-peak increase of more than 4 percentage points in the jobless rate would be the most since World War II, they said. Goldman analysts lowered growth forecasts for the next three quarters, and said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate target to 0.50% by December. "The main reason for these changes is the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production are dropping sharply," they wrote. "We do not see a resumption of anything close to trend growth before 2010."
And retail should see more pressure. Analysts are looking for a fourth consecutive monthly drop. The last time that happened was 1974. Here is what CIBC is saying:
"October will prove to be a disaster for retail sales, with only the discounters having anything to cheer about," wrote Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets. "Note that the ex-autos number will partly reflect the drop in nominal gas-station sales on falling pump prices, and will therefore exaggerate the decline in real terms."
Credit Suisse is saying this:
"The forces of tighter credit, a slackening labor market, falling household wealth and the deluge of negative news headlines are intersecting to create one of the worst backdrops for consumer demand," according to a Credit Suisse note. "As a consequence, vehicle sales collapsed in October and chain-store reports were softer than already scaled-back expectations."
I THINK ALL RALLIES SHOULD BE SHORTED HERE. I posted a new trade call on the blog so take a look. Also as of yesterday 19 banks have failed since the start of the year.
For all those people who are listening to their advisers (people who take a self test exams in 4 weeks and want to advise people on their hard work monies) be my guest. These are the same people will told people to stay with GM when it was $100, same that said stay with microsost@ $60 or stay with Enron. Time to wise up and take your finances in your own hands.
While doing my PHD one of my professors told me that the financial markets is a big scam for the smart people to take from the less knowledgeable among us, I wonder if we should call the markets some redistribution of wealth :) I think so! Just dont be on the wrong side.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL: GS
YES - A trade call on SUNDAY!! How crazy am I. This is not for the weak or inexperienced traders but experience traders among us.
I am going to play this one very very unusual but here it the play.
BUY $80 Puts for NOV. (GS WP) at open $8.30 area
BUY $70 Puts for DEC (GS XN) at open $9.00 area
Yep I have a gut felling about this one like I had about Fannie Mae and Wachovia. Let's see how this one turns out.
MARKETJEDI
I am going to play this one very very unusual but here it the play.
BUY $80 Puts for NOV. (GS WP) at open $8.30 area
BUY $70 Puts for DEC (GS XN) at open $9.00 area
Yep I have a gut felling about this one like I had about Fannie Mae and Wachovia. Let's see how this one turns out.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, November 7, 2008
NEXT WEEK
Ok This week was like watching paint dry but obviously by the data coming in the economy is in serious trouble. Today two FED governors officially called the current climate as recessionary which they have been trying not to say. The fact are we have lost 1.2 million jobs this year so far and companies are posting dismal results.
AIG which we bailed out with tax payers money is now asking for more. The big three automakers are saying they need $50 Billion out of the $700 Billion in the next 120 days or they will be under. The banks are just buying time before the next earnings season which looks like it will be worst than ever.
The economy is toasted here as it has been raped by the abusers who leave us holding the bag and want us to pay for their mismanagement. How ironic is this, that capitalism is begging for socialization, hollywood could not have made a better flick :)
Next week we are going to test S&P 885 for sure, which is 55-60 point below. Over the weekend I will send out the exact points to watch but here is a list of stuff to trade if we cycle lower next week, which I think we will:
GOOG short:
TM short:
GS short look like it will hit my $75 again and heading to $50:
Citibank heading towards my $7 price very very soon.
FSLR looks like it want lower.
I will update over the weekend for sure with some option plays.
AIG which we bailed out with tax payers money is now asking for more. The big three automakers are saying they need $50 Billion out of the $700 Billion in the next 120 days or they will be under. The banks are just buying time before the next earnings season which looks like it will be worst than ever.
The economy is toasted here as it has been raped by the abusers who leave us holding the bag and want us to pay for their mismanagement. How ironic is this, that capitalism is begging for socialization, hollywood could not have made a better flick :)
Next week we are going to test S&P 885 for sure, which is 55-60 point below. Over the weekend I will send out the exact points to watch but here is a list of stuff to trade if we cycle lower next week, which I think we will:
GOOG short:
TM short:
GS short look like it will hit my $75 again and heading to $50:
Citibank heading towards my $7 price very very soon.
FSLR looks like it want lower.
I will update over the weekend for sure with some option plays.
Job numbers out
Worst than expected 250k losses. the rate is up to 6.5% the biggest rate in 15 years.
Job Numbers
Job numbers will be out in 45 minutes. It looks like it is going to be a bad one but the futures are up. Currently we are alittle oversold from the last two days of selling, so we might shake off the bad news later and grind up but I am not putting much faith in this crazy market.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Anyone wants a Job???
The market rose last week and Monday/Tuesday on Fantasy Thinking. Which, in layman's terms is HOPE. The fantasy that the Fed's moves are loosening the credit markets, freeing up captial for lending to stimulate the economy. The fantasy that a new President, will be able to solve what until now is unsolvable. The fantasy that valuations are so compelling that even though the whole world is in the crapper, you should be buying because the market is "cheap", and the fantasy that the market is forward thinking, and therefore the economy will turn around eventually and so you should be buying now for the time when the turn happens.
The Madness is believing any or all of the above and acting on it. The Madness is the government continually finding reasons to bail out companies that are antiquated because "it's too big to fail". The Madness is listening to these "reports" that suddenly get released right before GM's earnings that say that if ONE of the big three car makers fails that it will basically ruin the economy to the point of no return, and cost $100 BILLION. The Madness is that I haven't heard anyone say who sponsored this "report" and I'm thinking there is a conflict of interest in there somewhere. The Madness is that we're bailing out homeowners that can't afford the standard of living they have. The Madness is that despite every evidence to the contrary, analysts, fund managers and investors refuse to accept the fact that the market is not just a little overpriced, that it is VASTLY overpriced, even at 8600, even at 7500 and even probably at 5000.
I am VERY empathetic to those amongst us that are struggling because I am in the same boat too. Most of us are struggling on some or many levels, there is a dark cloud hanging over a lot of things right now. I know that it is very un-PC to suggest that GM and FORD be allowed to fail and go bankrupt. There is, however, a very distinct conflict of interest when the government is deciding who gets taken care of, and who doesn't. I am going to start a company and employ thousands next week and ask for a bailout, so send your resumes to me!!!!Why should the people here have to go on unemployment while the government is going to bail out companies that can not possibly succeed. So, all they are doing is protecting the pension plans, and jobs that aren't necessary. It would be, in my opinion, much better for the government to extend unemployment benefits and in fact RAISE them dramatically so that there is a cost savings, rather than keeping companies going that will just bleed the taxpayers of everything they have, and thus extend this misery? Can you believe GM is losing 1 BILLION A MONTH! and they want the tax payers to pay for that!!!!. Just remember that when Enron went under, and LEH and others those people weren't remotely taken care of, they were let go and they let them lose everything in many cases. It's a problem when the government is just taking over everything on a whim, which is what's been happening clearly. Which is obviously SOCIALIZING the economy.
The sadness is the madness, and is the fantasy, because in my opinion most of what's being done will come back to haunt us, and it won't work - NONE OF IT. Yes, I am the grim reaper. Until the markets, companies, and people are allowed to succeed and fail organically again there will be no "bottom" in anything. It's frustrating. Look at everything they have thrown at the economy and at the markets and what good has it done? We are right off our multi-year lows and we show no sign of forming any kind of lasting bottom anywhere in sight. There is no rationale for anything being done, there hasn't been throughout this. That's part of why it's gotten worse, not better. The system is broken, and it needs to fail so that it can be reborn as something better and stronger. Nice rally last week, all those fools that rushed in to buy Monday and Tuesday this week are already SHOT. There needs to be a "time out" and a plan, but that's fantasy, madness and sadness on my part since it's just not happening and not likely to do so. Let's see what they do with GM. They can't possibly be ridiculous enough to give a $25 BIL loan to a company that is never going to recover. NEVER. You can point to history all you want, but as long as they have all those pensions on their books its just impossible for them to make enough to cover their nuts. Very sad.
I use to say people 401k's will be 201k as a joke but I think it will be 01k's soon. The markets are going to test those lows very soon and tomorrow job numbers might be the worst in over a decade so don't be surprised as it hasn't included the announced layoffs this week at Wells Fargo, Dell, Google, HP, Goldman Sachs (cutting 40%) and many more.
The Madness is believing any or all of the above and acting on it. The Madness is the government continually finding reasons to bail out companies that are antiquated because "it's too big to fail". The Madness is listening to these "reports" that suddenly get released right before GM's earnings that say that if ONE of the big three car makers fails that it will basically ruin the economy to the point of no return, and cost $100 BILLION. The Madness is that I haven't heard anyone say who sponsored this "report" and I'm thinking there is a conflict of interest in there somewhere. The Madness is that we're bailing out homeowners that can't afford the standard of living they have. The Madness is that despite every evidence to the contrary, analysts, fund managers and investors refuse to accept the fact that the market is not just a little overpriced, that it is VASTLY overpriced, even at 8600, even at 7500 and even probably at 5000.
I am VERY empathetic to those amongst us that are struggling because I am in the same boat too. Most of us are struggling on some or many levels, there is a dark cloud hanging over a lot of things right now. I know that it is very un-PC to suggest that GM and FORD be allowed to fail and go bankrupt. There is, however, a very distinct conflict of interest when the government is deciding who gets taken care of, and who doesn't. I am going to start a company and employ thousands next week and ask for a bailout, so send your resumes to me!!!!Why should the people here have to go on unemployment while the government is going to bail out companies that can not possibly succeed. So, all they are doing is protecting the pension plans, and jobs that aren't necessary. It would be, in my opinion, much better for the government to extend unemployment benefits and in fact RAISE them dramatically so that there is a cost savings, rather than keeping companies going that will just bleed the taxpayers of everything they have, and thus extend this misery? Can you believe GM is losing 1 BILLION A MONTH! and they want the tax payers to pay for that!!!!. Just remember that when Enron went under, and LEH and others those people weren't remotely taken care of, they were let go and they let them lose everything in many cases. It's a problem when the government is just taking over everything on a whim, which is what's been happening clearly. Which is obviously SOCIALIZING the economy.
The sadness is the madness, and is the fantasy, because in my opinion most of what's being done will come back to haunt us, and it won't work - NONE OF IT. Yes, I am the grim reaper. Until the markets, companies, and people are allowed to succeed and fail organically again there will be no "bottom" in anything. It's frustrating. Look at everything they have thrown at the economy and at the markets and what good has it done? We are right off our multi-year lows and we show no sign of forming any kind of lasting bottom anywhere in sight. There is no rationale for anything being done, there hasn't been throughout this. That's part of why it's gotten worse, not better. The system is broken, and it needs to fail so that it can be reborn as something better and stronger. Nice rally last week, all those fools that rushed in to buy Monday and Tuesday this week are already SHOT. There needs to be a "time out" and a plan, but that's fantasy, madness and sadness on my part since it's just not happening and not likely to do so. Let's see what they do with GM. They can't possibly be ridiculous enough to give a $25 BIL loan to a company that is never going to recover. NEVER. You can point to history all you want, but as long as they have all those pensions on their books its just impossible for them to make enough to cover their nuts. Very sad.
I use to say people 401k's will be 201k as a joke but I think it will be 01k's soon. The markets are going to test those lows very soon and tomorrow job numbers might be the worst in over a decade so don't be surprised as it hasn't included the announced layoffs this week at Wells Fargo, Dell, Google, HP, Goldman Sachs (cutting 40%) and many more.
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