Just doing my weekend homework and friday Morgan Stanley lowered there year end estimates on the S&P to 825. Today we are 755 so I guess we are close to a top by Morgan Stanley. Who the heck knows with all these idiots they were calling for DOW 17000 :). Anyways tomorrow should be very interested and the important level to watch is 732.50. If that is broken I think we will have a down week this week.
Lets talk it slow here but I assume we are at or almost at a top of this little bump, we will see soon enough.
I have a play for you this week, I am just waiting till around lunch time tomorrow.
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Weekend Thoughts
Well sorry for no market thoughts last weekend and little posting in the week but I have been swamped and my sinuses are killing me as we enter spring. I was born with serious sinus problems and have tried everything know to man and nothing helps.
Well we got a four days bump and yes it is a bump in the markets last week. This week is options expiration and I expect us to get some volatility this week. It is from my experience that this week should be a down week since we usually reverse the action on option expiration week. Now this is going to sound very strange but we are currently overbought and indicators are already showing the rally is waning in strength. Can we go a little higher yes but it will just be a better short entry.
I am currently short the russell from Thursday and obviously I am underwater but I will ride out my bets as usual. The S&P is the one to watch this week. 766 is the next upside I see but on the downside we must defend that 734 area or the bulls will welcome back the bears in numbers and a quick shot down to 701 is possible. Remember we are up 90 S&P points in 4.5 days and we can retrace half of that and still remain in an uptrend of this little correction, so we will see.
The banks have bounced heavily and here is a good spot to add 1/2 lot to shorts again or initiate 1/2 lot in my opinion. Nasdaq looks weak and it is possible that the next leg down this is the sector that will lose the most ad I will be betting on that.
Watch GOOG short- also watch XLF 8.60 level to short the financials.
MARKETJEDI
Well we got a four days bump and yes it is a bump in the markets last week. This week is options expiration and I expect us to get some volatility this week. It is from my experience that this week should be a down week since we usually reverse the action on option expiration week. Now this is going to sound very strange but we are currently overbought and indicators are already showing the rally is waning in strength. Can we go a little higher yes but it will just be a better short entry.
I am currently short the russell from Thursday and obviously I am underwater but I will ride out my bets as usual. The S&P is the one to watch this week. 766 is the next upside I see but on the downside we must defend that 734 area or the bulls will welcome back the bears in numbers and a quick shot down to 701 is possible. Remember we are up 90 S&P points in 4.5 days and we can retrace half of that and still remain in an uptrend of this little correction, so we will see.
The banks have bounced heavily and here is a good spot to add 1/2 lot to shorts again or initiate 1/2 lot in my opinion. Nasdaq looks weak and it is possible that the next leg down this is the sector that will lose the most ad I will be betting on that.
Watch GOOG short- also watch XLF 8.60 level to short the financials.
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Funny
Funny stuff but serious that NBC have people working to erase all of the Jon Stewart videos of him destroying Cramer and CNBC. Man I thought we had free speech but they will tell you some crap about copyright and hide behind that itself. Well if so be it then there would be no internet but I hope it proves to you how corrupt our system is and they try to discredit those who are try to spread the truth :). How funny DEMOCRACY IS :):)
Have a great weekend
Have a great weekend
Friday, March 13, 2009
Setting up
This will set up a nice trading short for us very soon. Don't worry as I said two weeks ago the sentiment was about to change because the short side was getting hard to trade. Where and how high we go? I dont know but just watch the financials as most believe they are cheap and the first sign or them as the insurers fading out the upside that will be the signal to get short. Yep folk that's how you have to play this one, up and down with the trend, this one will be sweet once again!
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Talking heads
Well folks again hearing the oh this is the bottom oh this is it again from the talking heads. Well as I said I expected a rally and expected it to run somewhere in 750 before resting. Well today we hit 750 on the March contract while we rolled over to the June contract which printed lower. My caution is too much too fast, I mean why are we bullish here, did something happen that I didn't know about. It is just a short covering rally to ease the pressure of for the next leg down, remember nothing goes in a straight line. Tomorrow we should have some profit taking as remember next week is option expiration so we could reverse this move easily. I am still neutral here poking minor stuff here and there but I am not ready to commit. Something is telling me the rally will last only a couple of days and we are on day three already so we will see soon enough.
Our shorts are still working and are so deep in the money profits that I am not even adding to them, just letting them play out as it may.
On a different note I posted a video and it was taken down because it spoke the truth about the media and the market (Jon Stewart video), this is the stuff the regular guy has to be afraid of seriously. Maybe they will take down my blog but who cares the point is why if it is not true why be worried, right CNBC, right CRAMER. In my book you are all just a bunch of crooks and not for the regular guy, who I am.
A HI-5 for JON STEWART!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Our shorts are still working and are so deep in the money profits that I am not even adding to them, just letting them play out as it may.
On a different note I posted a video and it was taken down because it spoke the truth about the media and the market (Jon Stewart video), this is the stuff the regular guy has to be afraid of seriously. Maybe they will take down my blog but who cares the point is why if it is not true why be worried, right CNBC, right CRAMER. In my book you are all just a bunch of crooks and not for the regular guy, who I am.
A HI-5 for JON STEWART!!!!
MARKETJEDI
March
Well I told you March would be significant and it seem to be proving that way. Firstly I have gotten emails about the rally and in my opinion I think it is just a bear market rally, what I do find bullish about it is that it pushes pass areas of resistance without much effort. Now longer term this year I do believe we will trade somewhere close to S&P 1000 BUT I dont think this is the beginning of that run. There is a good shot we test those lows THIS month and then I will be ready to go on the long side with more confidence.
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