Numbers to watch

Why I have not been posting alot of numbers iS becauSe the day ranges are so tight I can't get PRECISE projections to work with. The wider the ranges are the easier it is, as the narrow range is just sign of choppiness and sideways action but never the less I always try to use large time frames which are less distorted to see if there are any projections to look at.
Presently I have a downside projection of 847 on the S&P and an upside projection of 943 which is a gap fill and 'should' provide heavy resistance to get through at least on the first try.
The 847 level is very key because if we don't hold there we will definitely see 820/823 in a rush. My scenario here is this: if we see 847 before 943, 847/850 is a screaming buy!!!! Why? because unlike most other bears I don't believe we crash and burn so easily to see new lows, well not now but definitely later. So my scenario would be if we head down to this area and bounce we will make it up to the last swing high and head much higher and then complete this dreaded wave 4 (or 2 which some think it is). We will see soon enough.


MARKETJEDI

Downgrade of US credit

Last year I wrote about the consequence of the huge debt of the US. I said this is one of the reasons I believe in the not too distance future interest rates on bonds will have to rise substantially to continue to fund the deficit of the nation and if some of our biggest credits ie. China and Japan start shying away from our debt we will be in a economic peril much bigger that the credit crisis.
Last week we say the first sign of the collapse of the bonds which caused the commodities such as Gold and Oil to scream higher. Expect alot more of this in the future as the debt burden increases and countries move away from the dollar as their main asset, which they will.
The main talk last week why the markets pullback was the there is a possible downgrade coming on US bonds, will it happen or is it just speculation.

Past few weeks

The past few weeks have been the most difficult to trade and I think will go down in history are the most confusing times for the markets without a doubt. I have been dumbfounded of the last few weeks action although I did call this rally which I think has upside into July but thursday/ fridays action has put a light bulb over my head again.
What happened? The first clear sign I have seen in weeks that of a lower high pattern on the daily SPY(S&P500) chart. This to be is a signal of a more substantial pullback present and I have already step foot into some more puts at the 920 area and doubled up on ES puts there too and now averaging somewhere in the 866 level now. Do or die I stick by my calls and I will be looking to play some puts here as I believe we are coming close to the top of this rally especially in terms of time.
I hope you have a safe holidays and remember what this holiday stands for. I often remind myself that holidays stand for something than just a day off from work or school or to get gifts. Memorial day is for the soldiers who fought for whatever reason the country our tribute goes out to them.

Hmmmm

Things to think about- We gapped down and failed to fill the gap. Remember tomorrow is a friday before a long weekend and most will take the day off. I would love to see a test of the gap which stands @ 893 either overnight or early to see if we reject off it and rush to test the lows of the day. I would not expect much but if we grind nope which I would be surprised being a friday before an holiday look for some support to kick in around 875 then 869.
I am stuck in some put for June so I am hoping for a real pullback but I dont think we will get it tomorrow to scare the bulls just yet.

Remember the volume should be very light.

Oh the largest bank to fail to date was Bank united which was shut down today.

We will have alot more

BINGO!!

Hit that resistance mentioned yesterday @921/923 area. Now what is next???

Pre market

Looks like we will gap up but I expect us to fill the gap today and test that overnight lows of 902.50. Where we go today? I have no idea but if we break 902.50 on the downside I would be looking for a test of 893.

I will be here today

CHOPPINESS

OK, so what do we do here? Hell if I know! I think we continue to chop around in a range, a very tight one for a little bit and then decide which way we go. My guess is down, but I'm certainly not rushing out to short stuff arbitrarily. I'd rather buy dips until proven otherwise. 8500 continues to be the pivot, though, which is what my topside near term target has and remains, so I think we should get a real dip as the next big move. But, again, I think it prudent to let the market tip its hand before making a bit commitment of capital. I'd rather be safe then sorry.

Patience is key here


MARKETJEDI