Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Time running out
Time is running out on this uptrend as I have a Fibonacci time high coming in the next 4 weeks. I will continue to narrow it down as we go along.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Gold Update

What a sweet chart!!!!!!!!!!!
New all time high @ 1072, close to my prediction of 1076.
My interpretation of structure has this market in minuette (iv) of minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (C). The alternate view is a very bullish minor 3 of intermediate (3).
As pointed out in Thursday's post, it is unclear which peak (iii) finished at, 1062.50 or 1072.
Once (iv) completes, we should see another leg higher that would complete [v], and thus C.
If this assessment is correct, then the bulk of gains have already occurred. Of course, there is always the possibility that (v) could extend.
Bottom line - we should see another push higher before a meaningful correction.
CRUDE UPDATE

It is unclear whether crude broke free from a minor B wave triangle or not, as I show on the chart.
Price action certainly resembles a "thrust" that would be expected.
If a triangle, it measures to 84.33.
There is also the possibility that this is part of a combination corrective, and perhaps a combo that is not finished. That has yet to be determined.
Bottom line - price action does not appear finished in this move higher, however, it should be close to needing a retracement.
I am anticipating any retrace to be shallow and short lived.
US Dollar UPDATE

I interpret structure to be in minuette (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B]. A lot of ending 5's are very near folks.
Notice how the 50 sma has held price in check since July.
Noteworthy as well, look at the RSI action since it registered its low in early June. It has consistently been turned back down from the 50% level. In fact, this has happened 6 different times.
There is big positive divergence, forewarning that a change of trend may soon be at hand.
The DSI readings continue to point to a one way trade here. As has been mentioned in these posts numerous times, this can not go on indefinitely.
5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3 at 74.79. This is the minimum downside objective that would be expected to be reached.
Bottom line - This trend is very mature at this point in time. Be aware that it could end at anytime. As always, an impulse off a low with a channel break will give confirming evidence.
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