Friday, November 20, 2009

Soybeans




A breakout week for beans. Price traded through the 1029.50 H, and more importantly, the 1041.50 H.
This more than likely signals that primary [C] of a double zigzag of cycle c has commenced.
There is still an outside chance that we are still tracing primary [B], though I believe those odds are low.
Upside targets are where (3) = (1) at 1100.50, and (3) = 161.8% of (1) at 1192.75. [C] = [A] at 1174.
Drilling down intraday, you see that price is having a struggle getting past the 1050 level. This happens to be the 127.2% expansion of (2), which does get my attention, but my guess is it will be short lived as resistance.
Bottom line - It was sort of a messy start to this leg, but things appear to be progressing in impulsive fashion. I am near-term bullish this market until proven otherwise.

Wheat




Big breakout week in the wheat market.
Price confidently traded through the primary [1] high, suggesting that primary wave [3] was underway, and more specific, a "third of third."
The alternative is that [2] is still tracing and this is nothing more than a (C) leg on a coke binge.
I believe this little pullback is nothing more than a smaller degree 4 wave, possible of minor degree, though it may very well be intermediate.
Since we have decisively broken out of the down channel, we should expect it to become support if price were to trade that low.
Notice how price has supported on the 200 sma after breaking through.
Upside targets include [3] = [1] at 623.25, and [3] = 161.8% of [1] at 706.75.
Bottom line - I am near-term very bullish this market. Any trade through the intermediate (1) H of 528.25 would quickly change this view.

1075

I AM GETTING A MORE ACCURATE NUMBER @1077.

BINGO

Bingo on the 1083 support- Today is option expiration and that means it is day off for me. Most manipulated day of the month for trading and it makes no sense to even look at a day like today..

I would love to see this range expand, it is impossible to trade a narrow range.

AGAIN WATCH 1075 IF WE BREAK 1083 TODAY

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Recovery

Where is the great recover the talking heads talking about???
AOL just announce they laying off 1/3 of their workforce
AETNA had lay offs yesterday.

Again where is this great recovery and new bull market

Action

Funny how the patterns are saying higher but the volume as we have noted just won't back up the patterns. That's why in those circumstances you stay out of the way, this is just too choppy either way to take a stand.
Next support 1083 then 1075

Action

Very interesting action early- Remember to bracket the first hour range and see where we break