Monday, December 14, 2009

No updates today

Have some appointments to deal with today, so I will be away from the market action. But here is a small note.

The only thing that makes me interested in the equities market here is our time cycle calculations longer term which showing some clear cycle top, coupled with the obvious technical negative divergences. Balancing against all of that the trend from S&P 865 or even more clearly the March low of 665 is obviously up and the subsequently larger cycles have up peaking in 2010 of the rebound in the bear market. We must remember simple charting 01, consolidation near the highs ‘should’ lead to a move higher.
It should be very interested here as we could make a marginal new high, personally looking for an area 1122-1134 and then we collapse which has a very high probability of happening.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Non-Eventful day again!

I have a feeling we will just do what we did last year this time get a low volume swing up and then die after the first few weeks of January. All I know nothing is happening here equity wise and the real movers seem to be the Gold, Silver and Oil.

Makes no sense putting up charts because they show nothing but consolidation and chop and I don't have to say it, its obvious.
Banks are looking interesting and why I say that is they were the big leaders off the March lows and they seem to have lost stream in the last two months so I conclude this is a very important development.

Oil been sweet if you caught it short I said it before a break of $76 points to lower prices and that was what happened. Also the seasonality factor of Crude Oil made it negative coming into the later weeks of the year. Check out natural gas that one is always good this time of year but I totally had my eyes elsewhere and didn't make an alert out of it.

Have a great weekend

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Keep eye on Banks

Keeping eyes on Banks with all this TARP payback. My benchmark is still BAC $15 level

Citibank

Citibank paying back their which is great but to do this they have to issue $200 Billion in equity. Seeing all these banks rushing to pay back the TARP let me think they are doing it at the expense of capital dilution. We will see what really happens. In the mean time 1123 on the upside is the number I have and 1087 on the downside.
Seasonality is in place here folks and don't forget that. Usually they try to push up into mid December then we drift down during the final days, obviously this could be distorted this year due to the anemic volume.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Boring

Nothing boring day and indecision. Only significant happening was that my good old Bank of America paid back the TARP funds. Now they are free to rape us without a cause and get a CEO. Watch that stock as I have been saying $15 is the magical number on it. Has to hold that level or we will quickly wee $12. No doubt it will be in the single digits next year in my opinion but the market is doing much here to push the financials down yet.

Do I ??

Do I get to say BINGO today again with a 1081 hit????

We will see maybe we get there overnight and I wouldn't be surprised at that.

Drip

Wonder if they get to 1081 today or overnight. Another thing, has anyone notice that the days are boring while the action is 90% happening overnight. Yes not alot of participation for U.S players.